J.J. Cooper MLB Prospects Chat (9/7/21)

Image credit: Michael Busch (Photo by Bill Mitchell)

Tyler (North Carolina):

 Has Nick Gonzales monster second half put to rest some of the concerns surrounding his early struggle?

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone. Thanks for coming out. To jump right in, to some extent yes. He has always looked solid this year, but he’s been spectacular more often in the second half. That said, there still are caveats. Greensboro is an exceptional place to hit (especially for HRs). Gonzales is hitting .331/.401/.693 at Greensboro (with 13 HRs in 41 games). He’s hitting .267/.333/.427 on the road (with 4 HR in 30 games). Greensboro as a team slugs .475 at home (and opponents slug .481). Greensboro as a team slugs .438 on the road and opponents slug .358. So I guess what I’m saying is I expected Gonzales to produce like this. It’s useful to see him doing it, but it doesn’t make me think he’s exceeding expectations.

Jim (Philadelphia):

 In the last two drafts, Garrett Mitchell and Kahlil Watson both fell to Philadelphia, who opted instead for prep righthanders. Would you have done the same?

J.J. Cooper: I think this is more of a question from the Mitchell-Abel draft than it is this year. Khalil Watson signed for $600K more than what the Phillies gave Painter. With the Phillies not really going over-slot after the 10th round this year, it’s hard to see an easy way for the Phillies to meet Watson’s asking price. The reason he went to the Marlins was they had $1.7 million to spend in the draft than the Phillies, even if they picked later. Mitchell-Abel. That’s tougher. I think Mitchell arrives quicker, but the reports on Abel so far have been excellent. I loved Abel going into the draft so I would say if a team was crazy enough to hand me their drafts, I would go Abel last year over Mitchell. This year, I don’t think it really was a choice–Watson fell because of his asking price and the Phillies couldn’t have met it without devoting almost all of our draft to him.

Jeff (Idaho):

 Thoughts on Ronny Mauricio this season? Seems his talent has started to show up a bit more in the box scores this year. Still some swing-and-miss but the power has been nice to see. What are scouts saying about this kid?

J.J. Cooper: Scouts are still encouraged. He’s filling out into the body/power/strength that was hoped for. Brooklyn is the anti-Reno of ballparks. Mets hitters almost across the board are awful at home and much, much better on the road. Mauricio this year is hitting .266/.310/.537 on the road. If that’s what he was doing overall, I think you would see this season viewed as a sideways step. Mauricio is hitting .223/.274/.363 at home, which makes his overall numbers look pretty ugly. The same splits affect Francisco Alvarez (.190/.299/.446 at home)and Brett Baty (.239/.325/.408). No Brooklyn hitter has a .750 OPS at home. The team has a .746 OPS on the road.

Leo (NYC):

 hi JJ, thanks for the chat. A couple of Reds questions: Is Mike Siani still a prospect? He seems unable to hit High A pitching, not a good sign. 2nd question: Given Austin Hendricks high strike out rate, is Rece Hinds now the better prospect?

J.J. Cooper: Siani is still a prospect, but his offensive production has to get a lot better. His defense gives him a number of shots to improve. As far as Hendricks vs. Hinds, I would say they probably flip flop, but I have a couple of caveats to consider. 1) I have noticed multiple times that Pennsylvania HS hitters often take a little longer (Neil Walker and Devin Mesoraco are two examples). 2) Hinds has only had 160 PAs this year because of injury.

Karl (Carlsberg):

 How high might Matt Brash place in the top 100?

J.J. Cooper: Not ready to go there, but he’s getting closer and closer. We get a lot of “future reliever” reports on him, although as a really good reliever. I think there’s a chance he can start. It’s hard not to love his fastball-slider combo and he’s made strides with his command.

Jean Pinto (Delmarva):

 I’m 20 and putting up great numbers at Delmarva. If you could edit the Orioles top 30 today, would I make the list? If so, where would I land?

J.J. Cooper: Yes. He would. That’s why we put him in Helium today. Not high on that 30 yet, but there’s an up arrow there.

Dale (St Louis):

 Is there a more under-appreciated bat in the industrial scouting community than Juan Yepez?

J.J. Cooper: If you’re looking for sleeper bats, I’m going to start my list with Vinnie Pasquantino.

Chris (Naples, FL):

 Thank you for taking the time to answer questions today. In today’s hot sheet, there is a BA comparison for Julio Rodriquez to Franco and Vladdy. Is Rodriquez’s overall hit tool beginning to rate on their level?

J.J. Cooper: Maybe one grade below, but I wanted to note that if it’s possible for the No. 2 prospect in all of baseball to be sliding under the radar, Rodriguez’s ability to hit for average at an exceptional level is maybe slipping past little noticed because of the COVID-lost 2020 season and his time away this year thanks to the Olympics.

Wright (Baltimore):

 Hi, J.J. I know that Kyle Stowers has been tagged as having significant swing and miss issues. Has his performance this year answered any of those concerns in your mind? Do you see him making a move up the O’s Top 30, maybe even into their Top 10?

J.J. Cooper: He’s moving up on the O’s list. He’s made strides this year. Could see him slipping into the back of the O’s top 10 in the offseason.

Sean (Boston):

 Leonardo Jimenez has a nearly .500 OBP in Low A thanks to an excellent walk rate despite almost no power. Does he project to add strength, or is he destined for failure at the higher levels if he gets challenged in the zone more consistently?

J.J. Cooper: Whenever there is a player posting great OBPs in the Low-A SE, I can’t help think back to Cardinals OF Mike O’Neill. O’Neill was Mr. OBP in the early 2010s. He posted a .430 OBP in Low A, jumped to HiA and posted a .442 OBP. AA saw him post a .431 OBP. So what happened? Exactly what you suggested. O’Neill’s approach worked at every level of the minors (he retired with a .412 career OBP) but he never made it to the majors, thanks to his .070 isolated power. Jimenez has more defensive value, and I am optimistic, but it’s a legit concern. You can walk in the lower minors because you are more patient than wild pitchers. You walk in AAA and the majors because they won’t throw you a 3-0 fastball down the middle.

Dylan (Toronto):

 I believe that you’ve ‘updated’ the Top 100 since Jake Eder had Tommy John Surgery (but I believe the update only addresses ‘graduations’). Do you expect that Eder will no longer be a Top 100 when the formal update occurs?

J.J. Cooper: Eder will still be in the top 100 after we update again. Yes, the TJ is a concern, but if he hadn’t had the injury, we would have kept moving him up. We Talked to a number of scouts who preferred Eder to Max Meyer pre-injury.

brad (NJ):

 Pearson or Kirby? worried about injury history with Pearson, but could say same with recent velo spike with Kirby and can he sustain it over longer periods of time without injury?

J.J. Cooper: Kirby. I don’t think you can equate the two when it comes to durability concerns. Counting college pro ball, Pearson has exceeded 50 IP twice since 2016 (2017 and 2019). Going back to his freshman year in college in 2017, Kirby has thrown 50+ innings in 2017, 2018, 2019 and 2021.

Stuart (Philadelphia PA):

 Two Miss State alums are having really good years at Binghamton in Jake Mangum and Cole Gordon. Jake is hitting for more power than expected. Does he project as more than a 4th OF? Gordon has caught fire and had a lights out August. Does he project as a SP in the MLB as a SP4 or better?

J.J. Cooper: If Mangum is a 4th OF that would be an excellent outcome. He’s a 25-year-old in AA who is having a good but not great season as one of the older regulars at that level. He’s improved his power at a trade-off of losing a little in OBP. Gordon has been exceptional in August, but that doesn’t erase the rest of the season. At this point I do think he has a potential MLB role, but I wouldn’t be willing to say he’s a No. 4 SP.

Satchel (Las Vegas):

 JJ – what is your take on Joe Ryan. His name suggests he is my local insurance salesman, but his numbers indicate he maybe be a decent MLB pitcher. Like your take- thanks

J.J. Cooper: He’s a fascinating guy. Ryan does not have the fastball attributes that teams are generally looking for these days. But his fastball plays very well thanks to command and deception. Nothing about his fastball’s velocity and movement patterns would seem to indicate he can do this, but it has worked so far, and there is some reason to think that he could be one of the unusual guys that makes it work. He needs his fastball to work, as I don’t think his secondary offerings are ones that will play well if they aren’t set up by an effective fastball.

Jeff (Idaho):

 J-Rod continues to hit. And hit. And hit. Has his hitting at a young age in advanced levels given thought to a bump in his hitting tool? Not that his “60” isn’t already good…

J.J. Cooper: I think it’s a 70 hit now. Don’t know if I’m yet willing to go 80, but to even consider that he could be that is notable.

J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone. Sorry I have to run for a 4 p.m. phone call.