Termarr Johnson Would Be A Very Unusual Top-Five MLB Draft Pick

Image credit: Termarr Johnson (Matt Dirksen/Colorado Rockies)

UPDATE: A scout reached out to note that Johnson’s official height as measured at the East Coast Pro Showcase was 5-foot-7, which just adds to the potential uniqueness as a potential top five pick.

Coming out of the summer, second baseman Termarr Johnson ranks No. 1 on Baseball America’s 2022 Top 50 high school draft prospects. It seems highly likely that he will be among the top 10 picks in next year’s draft, and he has a very good chance to be a top-five pick.

There’s a lot to like about Johnson. He’s one of the most advanced hitters to come out of high school in years. His consistent ability to square up seemingly any prep pitcher on the showcase circuit has made him a star this summer. He’s also a smooth defender at second base. His combination of intelligence, polish and drive makes him a scout’s favorite.

But he would be a very unusual top-five pick. Johnson is listed at 5-foot-10 (and was measured at 5-foot-7 at the East Coast Pro Showcase), which is shorter than most players who are taken in the top-10 picks. He also is seen most likely as a second baseman in pro ball. Prep players who are seen as second basemen are almost never taken in the top-10 picks.

The combination together would be somewhat unprecedented.

Using Pramana’s Shift Tool allows us to quickly put together just how unusual this combination is.

Here’s a look at every 5-foot-10 or shorter position player taken in the top-10 picks since the first MLB draft in 1965. Of the 570 top-10 picks, only 20 (3.5%) have been position players who are 5-foot-10 or shorter.

Year	Pick	Team	Player	POS	BATS	THROWS	Height (Inches)
2004	1	San Diego Padres	Matt Bush	SS	R	R	69
1974	3	Philadelphia Phillies	Lonnie Smith	OF	R	R	69
1981	3	Los Angeles Angels	Dick Schofield	SS	R	R	70
1998	3	Chicago Cubs	Corey Patterson	OF	L	R	70
2018	4	Chicago White Sox	Nick Madrigal	SS	R	R	67
2010	4	Kansas City Royals	Christian Colon	SS	R	R	70
1968	5	Los Angeles Dodgers	Bobby Valentine	OF	R	R	70
1979	5	Oakland Athletics	Juan Bustabad	SS	B	R	69
1976	6	Los Angeles Angels	Ken Landreaux	OF	L	R	70
1982	6	Seattle Mariners	Spike Owen	SS	B	R	70
2020	7	Pittsburgh Pirates	Nick Gonzales	SS	R	R	70
2015	7	Boston Red Sox	Andrew Benintendi	OF	L	L	70
2010	8	Houston Astros	Delino DeShields Jr.	2B	R	R	69
1977	9	Texas Rangers	David Hibner	SS	R	R	70
1978	9	Montreal Expos	Glen Franklin	SS	L	R	70
2002	10	Texas Rangers	Drew Meyer	SS	L	R	70
2018	10	Pittsburgh Pirates	Travis Swaggerty	OF	L	L	70
1971	10	Atlanta Braves	Taylor Duncan	SS	R	R	70
1972	10	California Angels	Dave Chalk	3B	R	R	70
1973	10	Atlanta Braves	Pat Rockett	SS	R	R	70

Short hitters being taken in the top-10 picks are rare, but a high school second baseman being taken in the top-10 picks has only happened once: Delino DeShields Jr. in 2010 (eighth overall by the Astros). There have been only five high school second baseman ever taken in the top-30 picks.

Year	Pick	Team	Player	Pos.	Bats	Throws	Height (Inches)
2010	8	Houston Astros	Delino DeShields Jr.	2B	R	R	69
1971	14	New York Mets	Rich Puig	2B	L	R	70
2020	17	Boston Red Sox	Nick Yorke	2B	R	R	72
1974	19	San Francisco Giants	Terry Lee	2B	L	R	61
2009	30	Tampa Bay Rays	LeVon Washington	2B	L	R	71

Admittedly, there are some caveats to this list. Often, a likely pro second baseman will be announced as a shortstop in the draft, even if he ends up playing second base for most of his pro career. Nick Madrigal, the fourth pick in the 2018 draft, was listed as a shortstop when the White Sox selected him, even though he played second base throughout almost his entire college career. Madrigal has played exactly one game at shortstop in his pro career.

Johnson does play shortstop in addition to second base, and may be listed as a shortstop when he is selected. But even if he is drafted as a shortstop, he still would be a rare demographic as a top-10 pick.

The fact that Johnson may end up as a top-five pick and even a candidate to go 1-1 overall does signify how the game is changing. A few decades ago, his stature would likely disqualify him from top-five consideration, but just as short righthanded pitchers are now viewed more favorably than they were years ago, teams have come around to the idea that if you can hit, height isn’t really an issue.

On top of that, the success of Jose Altuve, Dustin Pedroia, Jose Ramirez and Ozzie Albies in the 21st century has shown that being shorter than the average MLB hitter doesn’t preclude a player from providing plenty of power. Their success will likely make it a little easier for teams to consider Johnson at the top of this upcoming draft class.