2021 SEC Baseball Stock Watch: Which Programs Are Trending Up, Down?

We’re running out of ways to describe how the SEC has become the most dominant conference in college baseball, but in 2021, the league provided plenty more evidence that it is still very much out in front of everyone else in the sport. 

Mississippi State winning the national title was the seventh time in the last 12 editions of the College World Series that an SEC team has secured the trophy, and the Mississippi State-Vanderbilt CWS finals matchup was the second all-SEC finals matchup in the last four finals, with Florida and Louisiana State facing off back in 2017. With 67 players drafted, the SEC also led all conferences once again in having its players selected in the MLB draft. 

But while things like SEC dominance in college baseball don’t seem to change, there is plenty of change to be found within the league. Tennessee was back in the national spotlight last season and got to the CWS for the first time since 2005. Paul Mainieri announced his retirement at LSU and was replaced by former Arizona coach Jay Johnson. Texas A&M really struggled in 2021 and moved on from coach Rob Childress in favor of former Texas Christian coach Jim Schlossnagle. Most recently, we also learned that Texas and Oklahoma would be joining the league at some point in the not-so-distant future. 

Teams rise, teams fall, coaches come in and out of jobs, the membership of the conference changes, but the one thing you can count on is the SEC proving to be the best league in college baseball year after year. 

Presented here is a team-by-team analysis for every team in the SEC, as well as the trajectory of the program moving forward. 

Alabama (32-26, 12-17), reached regionals ??

Alabama got into a regional in 2021 for the first time since 2014, snapping a postseason drought that was only eclipsed by Missouri’s current drought. The Tide didn’t leave much margin for error for getting into the postseason with a 12-17 SEC regular-season record, but a solid 2-2 showing in the SEC Tournament with wins over South Carolina and Tennessee helped get them there. 

The feat of getting into a regional is a big step forward for Alabama under any circumstances, but it’s even more impressive when you consider that it was without its best pitcher, Connor Prielipp, for essentially the entire season, and arguably its second best pitcher, Antoine Jean, for half the season. The SEC being as tough as it is means that program progress isn’t always linear, so some patience may be required as Bama looks to take the next step, but it’s clear the necessary forward momentum is there. 

Arkansas (50-13, 22-8), reached super regionals ??

Arkansas was the best team in college baseball during the regular season, full stop. You can count on every team in college baseball slipping up at least once during the regular season, but it simply never happened to the Razorbacks in 2021 as they glided into the postseason as the odds-on favorite to win the national title. Once in the postseason, though, Arkansas looked more mortal, as it got pushed to a deciding final game by Nebraska in regionals and then was eliminated by North Carolina State in super regionals when its bats went quiet and injuries on the pitching staff really cut down on the number of pitchers the coaching staff trusted. 

It will be tempting to fixate on the way the season ended for Arkansas, especially since that’s a program still looking for its first national championship, and there’s no arguing against the fact that it was a disappointing finish. But that shouldn’t outshine the accomplishments from one of the best regular-season runs we’ve ever seen in the sport. It might be a long time until we see a team run through the SEC the way Arkansas did last season, and we may never see a superstar come out of nowhere the way Kevin Kopps did, so it’s important that we appreciate those things for what they were. 

Auburn (25-27, 10-20), no postseason ????

Unfortunate injury luck and the lack of the kind of frontline starting pitching you need to thrive in the SEC kept Auburn from being a threat for the postseason, even as it boasted a solid lineup that specialized in hitting the ball out of the ballpark. After beginning SEC play 1-8, the Tigers rebounded to some degree, going 9-12 in the conference the rest of the way. 

It was a tough season at Auburn and a good reminder that building a program up to being an annual regional team, which is what the Tigers are working toward right now, is rough business in the SEC. A few pieces of bad luck here and there and you can very quickly take on water. The fight they showed down the stretch was a positive, however, and there really shouldn’t be concern about the overall trajectory of the program. 

Florida (38-22, 17-13), reached regionals ??

The Gators looked as strong a preseason No. 1 as there had been in college baseball in a while heading into a 2021 season that saw them open a new ballpark. Once games started, though, reality set in. A lot of little things worked against Florida. Injuries happened. Established pitchers Tommy Mace and Jack Leftwich didn’t take big steps forward. The pitching staff overall ended up being fairly thin. Outfielder Jud Fabian got off to a slow start and battled high strikeout numbers all season. 

Added up, it made for a Florida team that was good enough to host but not good enough to avoid being eliminated in a home regional. The hope for Florida is that this was simply an uninspired season that failed to meet sky-high expectations and not a continued downturn of form after it was also a bubble team back in 2019. Talent certainly won’t be a question in 2022, with the Gators returning a ton of key pieces, including Fabian, and another high-end recruiting class arriving. With that being the case, a bet on Florida returning to national title contention in short order seems like the safe one. 

Georgia (31-25, 13-17), no postseason ????

With Emerson Hancock and Cole Wilcox departing from the rotation after the 2020 season, Georgia was always going to have questions to answer on the mound in 2021. And when illness and injury struck the pitching staff in a particularly cruel way with Jonathan Cannon, Ryan Webb and C.J. Smith all missing time, it made a steep hill even steeper. So even as the staff ended up pitching well in spite of that and the offense was solid, the Bulldogs came up one or two wins short of regionals. 

You can add Georgia to the list of programs most disappointed to see the 2020 season pulled out from under them, as it was almost certainly the best team of Scott Stricklin’s time at the helm and it was undoubtedly disappointed to come up short last season. It’s important to remember that the trajectory of the Bulldogs has ultimately been good of late, as they got to regionals in 2018 and 2019 and hosted in the second of those years, but they’re still playing catch-up in a lot of ways when compared to the powers of the SEC. 

Kentucky (29-23, 12-18), no postseason ??

Kentucky toyed with getting into a regional last season with a team that was somewhat short on star power but had a lot of quality depth to go around. After a series win over Alabama at the end of April, it had a 9-9 mark in SEC play. But series losses the next four weekends, plus a one-and-done showing at the SEC Tournament, did the Wildcats in. 

The urgency to get Kentucky back into regionals is there after another June spent at home, and quietly, the Wildcats have an intriguing team lined up for next season. Most of the key pieces from a solid pitching staff last season are set to return and the coaching staff also brought in a large group of players from the transfer portal who are likely to play important roles right away. 

Louisiana State (38-25, 13-17), reached super regionals ????

Thanks in part to bad luck that cost presumed ace Jaden Hill most of the season due to Tommy John surgery, LSU found itself sitting 4-11 halfway through SEC play and in need of a torrid run just to get back into postseason position. The Tigers pulled it off, winning four of their last five series, extending the career of coach Paul Mainieri, who announced his retirement at the end of the regular season. From there, LSU also came back from the brink of elimination in the Eugene Regional to advance to super regionals, where it was eliminated by Tennessee. 

With Mainieri’s retirement, former Arizona coach Jay Johnson takes over, and for an offensive-minded head coach like himself, he has to like what he sees already in Baton Rouge, as the Tigers should have one of the best lineups in college baseball, and joining that group is freshman All-American Jacob Berry, who followed Johnson over from Tucson. That should help offset some of the question marks LSU has on the mound again and give the Tigers a chance to compete to get back to Omaha for the first time since 2017.

Mississippi (45-22, 18-12), reached super regionals ????

There is plenty of fan frustration to be found in Oxford after Mississippi was eliminated once again in super regionals, but taking a step back and just looking at the season for what it was, it was an impressive showing for the Rebels. A team without one of its co-aces in Gunnar Hoglund for most of the season, with top hitter Tim Elko relegated to DH and pinch-hit duty and with a struggling bullpen earned a host spot and made it to super regionals. 

Of course, individual seasons don’t happen in a vacuum, and the frustration over Ole Miss falling short of Omaha despite continually producing teams good enough to host and get to super regionals is real. There’s no denying that the program is in a weird spot. On one hand, all but a handful of programs would love to be as good as Ole Miss is annually, but on the other hand, Ole Miss strives to be among the elite in the sport, and despite often having the talent to do so, it can’t quite get there. 

Mississippi State (50-18, 20-10), won national title ??

The most consistent SEC team not named Arkansas during the 2021 regular season, Mississippi State flew somewhat under the radar into the postseason, but an impressive super regionals win over Notre Dame, a team many felt should have been a top-eight seed, helped hammer home just how good the Bulldogs were. They proved it again in Omaha with a national title run led by outstanding pitching from Will Bednar and Landon Sims and a total team effort on offense. 

The Bulldogs, long a bridesmaid at the CWS level but never the bride, finally busted the door down for the program’s first national title last season. Just as notably, MSU’s history is marked by standout seasons that were often followed by rebuilding periods where it wasn’t as competitive in the SEC, but in recent years, that has ceased and the expectation is now that the Bulldogs will annually be among the best teams on the field. As much as winning the national title, that’s the signal that Mississippi State has officially arrived in the upper echelon of the sport. 

Missouri (15-36, 8-22), no postseason ??

Missouri really took it on the chin in 2021. It won just two SEC series, an early April set with Texas A&M and a shocking series win over eventual national champion Mississippi State. Pitching was expected to be the Tigers’ bread and butter, as it so often has been, but injuries on that unit heightened the degree of difficulty in winning games that way, and the offense just wasn’t good enough to keep up in the SEC. 

Missouri is still looking for its first regional appearance as a member of the SEC, and in its short history in the league, it has had more seasons like this one than seasons when it looked like a postseason contender. Under Steve Bieser, there is no doubt that the Tigers have been more competitive, and at times in recent years, they have had a regional-quality pitching staff, but offense has often held them up from getting over the hump. Progress has been made, but it has to be frustrating for Missouri that it hasn’t amounted to playing June baseball yet. 

South Carolina (34-23, 16-14), reached regionals ????

At the end of an up-and-down regular season that saw South Carolina at one point win four consecutive SEC series and then promptly drop four of its last five conference series, it did enough to host a regional, albeit as a two seed with Old Dominion as the top seed. Offensive struggles that had cropped up during the Gamecocks’ skid to finish the regular season continued into regionals, however, and they were eliminated after a 1-2 showing. 

South Carolina is itching for its next Omaha team, and at times, the 2021 team, a veteran group that had a physical lineup and a talented pitching staff, looked like it could be that squad. Now, the Gamecocks are going into 2022 with some rebuilding to do after they had a whole host of players drafted and signed into pro baseball, including all three members of their season-ending rotation, a quality relief pitcher in Andrew Peters and their two best home run hitters in Wes Clarke and Brady Allen. But South Carolina baseball is South Carolina baseball, so that doesn’t mean expectations will dip all that much in Columbia. 

Tennessee (50-18, 20-10), reached CWS ??

In 2019, Tennessee made it to regionals for the first time since 2005. Last season, it broke down an even bigger barrier in getting to the CWS, also for the first time since 2005. And it wasn’t just that the Volunteers got hot at the right time to get to Omaha. They were a consistent team from start to finish in the SEC and they finished a half-game up on Vanderbilt to top the SEC East during the regular season. 

The challenge for Tennessee now is to turn a successful 2021 season into an extended run competing at or near the top of the SEC and making a push for more trips to the CWS. That won’t be easy, but it has a talented team returning next season and the administration seems to be committed to investing to make sure that happens. Earlier this summer, coach Tony Vitello signed an extension that will pay him $1.5 million and the hope is that much-needed renovations to Lindsey Nelson Stadium aren’t far behind. At long last, it appears that Tennessee is ready to be a serious contender in the SEC year in and year out. 

Texas A&M (29-27, 9-21), no postseason ??

Without the kind of frontline ace Texas A&M normally boasts at the front of the rotation and with an offense that was solid but not able to completely carry the load, the Aggies struggled to a 9-21 record in SEC play last season, their worst mark since joining the league. It was also the first time the Aggies were absent from regional play since 2006, coach Rob Childress’ first season at the helm. 

The tough season in College Station cost Childress his post, and in his place is former Texas Christian coach Jim Schlossnagle. Under normal circumstances, you might view this as a rather lengthy rebuilding job in a tough SEC that doesn’t make it easy for teams to climb out of the cellar, but Schlossnagle has turned over the roster in a big way, bringing in a huge class of transfers, headlined by former Texas Tech ace Micah Dallas and Jack Moss, the top recruit in Arizona State’s last class. It remains to be seen how that group will come together, but if nothing else, it makes A&M one of the most fascinating teams in college baseball for 2022. 

Vanderbilt (49-18, 19-10), reached CWS ??

For the most part, Vanderbilt had exactly the season it was expected to have. Co-aces Kumar Rocker and Jack Leiter were both excellent and that played a big part in the Commodores going 19-10 in the SEC and sweeping through regionals and super regionals on the way to the College World Series. Led by that duo, they also made it one win shy of winning the national title but ultimately fell short against Mississippi State.

The beat goes on at Vanderbilt, which continues to operate at an extremely high level. It will go into a world without Rocker and Leiter next season, but while we don’t necessarily know for certain who the replacements in the rotation will be as we sit here today, we should be confident that the next pitchers in line will be up to the task. And an offense that was inconsistent at times last season returns a number of key pieces, which should make that a dangerous unit. The Commodores have simply earned the benefit of the doubt that they will be an elite team until we find out otherwise.