2021 College Baseball Top 25 Chat (5/24/21)

Image credit: Arkansas' Christian Franklin (Photo by John Bunch/Getty Images)

Teddy Cahill: That was perhaps the most fun weekend of college baseball we’ve had all season. Opening Day was great – as it always is – but this weekend, with some wild finishes across the country, championships getting handed out and just a lot of great baseball was a lot of fun to see. Hopefully we get more of the same in championship week. Now, let’s get to your questions.

Ty (Lubbock):

 At what point does Texas Tech pass TCU for the Top 8 seed? Even though TCU shared the Big 12 season title they have lost 3 straight series 2 of those against inferior opponents.

Teddy Cahill: It’s happened. TCU still holds a one-spot edge in RPI and finished with a better Big 12 record, but I’d find it hard to believe that the Horned Frogs remain ahead of the Red Raiders on the seed list. Texas Tech has a head-to-head series win, similar metrics and probably would be ranked ahead of TCU by the regional advisory committee. That should be all it needs to pass TCU.

Steve (FL):

 What the heck has happened to Louisville? Is there a chance they could miss the NCAA Tournament field entirely?

Teddy Cahill: Louisville has been really limited by some injuries on the mound and that might be what started this slide, but the problems have now really moved to the lineup. The Cardinals have scored nine runs in their last six ACC games – all losses – and more than half of those runs came in one game at North Carolina. At this point, I’m inclined to say Louisville is pressing, but it’s really not just one thing. It’s an accumulation of a lot of things and it’s been really surprising to see what’s happened to the Cardinals over the last month.

Keegan (Nebraska):

 Do the Cornhuskers have a shot at playing their way into being a road 1 seed? How does their resumé stack up against some of the teams still on the hosting bubble?

Teddy Cahill: I don’t think so. The Big Ten champion doesn’t typically host a regional – right or wrong, that’s usually how it goes. So, in this year when Nebraska and the rest of the Big Ten teams haven’t been able to test themselves against other competition, why would it be any different? It’s hard for me to craft an argument for Nebraska (or any other Big Ten team, had another team won the title) to host that isn’t based on geography and the idea of growing the game. If that’s true, then I certainly can’t craft an argument for them to be a traveling No. 1 seed.

Enrique (TX):

 How surprised were you about Childress getting fired? Any other darkhorse candidates who could be in trouble?

Teddy Cahill: Not at all. He was out of contract and finished last in the SEC West after results had backed up for the last couple seasons. I’m not here to say he should have been let go and at almost every program in the country going to 13 straight NCAA Tournaments and the College World Series twice would have been enough to merit a contract extension. But that hadn’t been the case at A&M, where the sights are set a bit higher. So, a 9-21 SEC season clearly wasn’t going to be good enough to get a new contract, for better or worse.

Sam (Georgia):

 What’s your thoughts on who could be the Sun Belt’s AQ? The conference is pretty equally matched on both sides but curious who you have winning the Sun Belt Tournament.

Teddy Cahill: Do you have a dart board I can borrow? Seriously, there’s no more wide open tournament in the country this week. I think I like South Alabama and Georgia Southern the most as teams, but neither comes into the tournament with much momentum. Louisiana seems to be playing better. But I have no confidence in making a Sun Belt pick. The good news is that should make for an entertaining tournament.

Brian (Norfolk):

 What are the chances ODU is a traveling 1 seed?

Teddy Cahill: I think it’s real. ODU has 38 wins, ranks 12th in RPI and is 16-6 on the road. Those numbers all stack up well with potential hosts. I think the Monarchs need to do something this week in the CUSA Tournament though. Winning it would probably ensure ODU of being a traveling 1. A deep run might be enough. But a quick exit probably would put it on the 2 line.

Casey (New York):

 Does Vanderbilt truly have the pitching to make a run to Omaha? It feels like it has been a while since Rocker and Leiter both pitched really well on the same weekend. They went all season without identifying a reliable third starter. And Nick Maldonado (and to a lesser extent Luke Murphy) seem to be the only relievers on staff who can reasonably be expected to come into a game and get outs in a tough spot. Is Vanderbilt ripe for a Regional upset? Or have years of following Vanderbilt football conditioned me to be too much of a pessimist?

Teddy Cahill: I mean, yeah, Vanderbilt has the pitching to do it. Remember how good the Commodores have looked at times this year against premium competition. And then remember that their opponents in regionals are not going to be at the level of Mississippi State or Tennessee or Florida. Now, could Vanderbilt be upset? Yes. The 2019 team, one of the best in college baseball history, needed three games to beat both Duke and Michigan. Weird things happen in short series sometimes. I don’t think it happens in regionals, but many stranger things have happened in this game.

Brian (CT):

 Is UConn (RPI=22) a lock for the tournament no matter what happens in the Big East tournament?

Teddy Cahill: Probably, but going 0-2 might make UConn more uncomfortable than it would really like. The other three teams in the Big East Tournament field are all RPI 100+, so nothing good is going to come from taking two losses against them. The Huskies resume aside from RPI is bubbly at best. 14-15 away from home is solid and 30 wins is good. SOS of 60 is ok, 2-8 against Top 50 RPI teams and 3-9 vs. Top 100 RPI teams is not good. Now, the bubble is pretty soft this year and UConn probably will rate well with the regional advisory committee, but I wouldn’t want to fully test it by crashing out of the Big East Tournament in a hurry.

NCAA Fan (Omaha):

 Will Omaha be full capacity this year?

Teddy Cahill: yes

Ted Dintersmith (Charleston, SC):

 What are your thoughts on Stanford’s prospects of making it to Omaha, and even doing quite well there? With the emergence of Dixon and Palisch, their pitching depth is looking much stronger.

Teddy Cahill: Because Stanford’s schedule was back loaded this year, it’s taken me some time to catch up to just how good the Cardinal can be. I definitely like the talent they’ve put together over the last couple years. The offense has some impact players, they field at a high level and it really helped to get Jacob Palisch and Alex Williams healthy midway through the season. I’ll be fascinated to see Stanford in the postseason, mostly because I’m fascinated by seeing all the West Coast teams in the postseason. With the exception of Arizona, Gonzaga and Oregon State, the best West Coast teams have just played other West Coast teams. It makes it hard to evaluate everyone since it’s effectively a closed system out there. But I think this Stanford team could make some noise, particularly with its powerful offense and strong defense.

Sam (ATL):

 I would assume the winner of the UGA / LSU play in game on Tuesday makes it to a regional? What about the loser? 13/17 in the SEC with solid RPI’s and SOS’s. UGA has a series win against #1 Vandy and took one from #1 Arkansas…. is that enough?

Teddy Cahill: I would not want to test it if I was Georgia. The Bulldogs would be 13-18 in SEC games (the committee counts tournament games), with an RPI of ~40, a 10-11 record away from Athens and a 7-14 mark against top-50 teams (14-20 vs. top 100). To me, that’s bubble out, at least in a vacuum. But the field doesn’t get put together in a vacuum and the bubble is very forgiving right now. So, maybe UGA could get in there, riding the Vanderbilt series win, a strong SOS and 30 wins. LSU’s metrics are in better shape and it could probably withstand a loss. Still, the Tigers would be facing a more anxious week than they’d prefer.

Teddy Cahill: That’ll do it for today. Thank you everyone for the questions. Enjoy all the conference tournament action this week!