2021 College Baseball Top 25 Chat (3/15/21)

Teddy Cahill: Welcome to this week’s chat. Another fun weekend of college baseball to wrap up. Let’s get to your questions.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware):

 So Virginia was expected to be a contender for the ACC championship, and now they are in last place in the Coastal division – what is the explanation for this reversal? Do you expect a rebound as the season progresses?

Teddy Cahill: No one in college baseball media was higher on Virginia than I was coming into the season. I thought the Hoos were ready to step back onto the national stage and make a run at Omaha. So, clearly, I’ve been surprised by the way they’ve started the season. I don’t think there’s one easy explanation to this point. It’s just a lot of things stacking up. I don’t think there’s one area of the team that has played to its ability. Maybe the defense. But the bats haven’t started well throughout the lineup, the rotation is not elite and the bullpen, outside of Schoch and Bales hasn’t settled in. I don’t think this stuff is going fester all season long. I have to believe Newell and Gelof get hot at some point and that the Hoos work out the roles on the pitching staff. So, I think the Cavs get it turned around, but how quickly and by how much? In a tough ACC, that’s never going to be easy. In the end, this is probably a team that makes regionals, but won’t host or compete at the top of the conference.

Greg (Tustin, CA):

 UCLA’s starting pitching seemed to let them down this weekend. Something to be concerned about or will the Bruins rebound?

Teddy Cahill: Similarly, UCLA. I think the Bruins will figure this out – to an extent. Nick Nastrini had been outstanding the first few week before Cal Poly got to him. Jesse Bergin is better than he showed this weekend and Zach Pettway will probably settle in once he gets a little more up to speed. But, like Virginia, I think it’s fair to say this might not be the elite rotation we thought it would be. And if that’s the case, can the Bruins find the right mix in the bullpen to back them up? UCLA remains the most talented team in the Pac-12 and that will count for something, but I think it will find itself in more tight series than anticipated in 2021.

Keegan (Nebraska):

 Is UCLA falling to Cal Poly and the Pac-12’s new lack of a top 15 team a sign of the decline at the top of the conference or is UCLA just underachieving early?

Teddy Cahill: The West Coast is almost completely a closed ecosystem this year. Arizona played in the Frisco Classic and brought a couple teams west to play in Tucson. BYU and Gonzaga amde Texas trips and Grand Canyon went to Oklahoma State. Other than that, the teams in Washington, Oregon, California and Arizona have been playing each other. As a result, it’s kind of hard to get a feel for what’s what as they beat up on each other. What’s happened with the Pac-12 in the rankings to this point is attributable to 1) UCLA already having two series losses, 2) Arizona’s up-and-down performance (it has two split weekends) and 3) Oregon’s slow start to the season. One or two of those teams (and you can probably throw Stanford, Oregon State and Arizona State into the mix) will likely finish the regular season in the top 15. But we’re still waiting for the cream to rise out West. I’m hopeful that the start of conference play this week will give us a better idea.

Frank (Greenville, NC):

 Who should be more concerned? Clemson Fans, UVA fans, or both?

Teddy Cahill: I’ll say Clemson, but not by much. UVA has more talent, so I feel better about its ability to dig out of the hole that it’s put itself in. But 1-5 (Clemson) or 2-7 (Virginia) is not a good spot to be in. And, again, there’s no let up in the ACC slate this year. The particularly worrying thing for the Tigers, I think, is the offense. That 4.66 team ERA is not good and I know they’re trying to figure out how the pieces fit on the mound, but for a team that’s hitting for some power (15 home runs in 13 games), they’re not scoring enough (4.8 runs per game). Maybe it’s because I associate recent Clemson teams with offense more than pitching, but that’s jarring to me.

Keegan (Nebraska):

 What will it take for additional Big Ten teams to make the top 25? And how much control does Michigan have over who gets/stays in the rankings

Teddy Cahill: We talked about Indiana this week. If the Hoosiers keep playing like this, they’ll be in sooner than later. I understand why there are questions like this, but I don’t think it will be much of challenge to know when the time is right to move Big Ten teams into the Top 25. College football did a whole fall with three major conferences playing exclusively conference games and the other two allowing only one non-conference game. They figured it out, so will we.

Bill (Virginia):

 How far out of the Top 25 is Old Dominion? Quality series win last weekend over Northeastern, midweek win over ECU, and sweep of Ball State this past weekend. Monarchs sitting quietly at 12-3.

Teddy Cahill: Definitely a nice start for ODU, but I think when you lift the hood on that 12-3 record, it doesn’t look quite as impressive. ODU lost a series to Rhode Island, which looks like a solid team in the A-10, but that’s still a home series loss. Northeastern and Ball State are both solid teams as well and will probably compete at the top of the CAA and MAC, but they’re also a combined 12-13. All that said, ODU has been handling business for the last two weeks. Keep it up as CUSA play begins and the Monarchs may well start playing a more prominent role in our rankings discussions.

Dan (Pittsburgh):

 What are your thoughts on Mike Bell and my Pitt Panther’s? What is the ceiling for the Panthers?

Teddy Cahill: Nothing but respect for the Panthers. Very, very impressive first month. To be 6-3 in the ACC already, that’s a great run for Pitt. And, not for nothing, that Opening Weekend series win against Indiana State looks pretty good too. Can’t say I saw it coming, but Pitt has put together a solid all-around team that has won games with its pitching and offense. As for a ceiling, I don’t want to limit them considering how far they’ve already exceeded expectations. But Pitt is already positioning itself very well to reach the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 1995.

Ty (Lubbock):

 What are your thoughts about the top of the pecking order in the Big 12 entering conference play?

Teddy Cahill: Right now, it’s looking like a two- or three-horse race. Really need to see something out of Oklahoma State this weekend if the Cowboys are going to keep up with Texas Tech and Texas. But given that Texas Tech just doesn’t lose in Lubbock, that’s a tough ask.