2021 College Baseball Top 25 Rankings Preseason Chat

Image credit: (Photo courtesy UCLA)

Teddy Cahill: Welcome to our Preseason Top 25 chat. It’s been a long offseason and I, for one, am happy to be talking about a Top 25 after several months of talking about off-field issues or looking ahead to how things might play out. So, let’s get to your questions.

Greg (Tustin, CA):

 Great stuff today guys! How close was UCLA to getting that top spot from Florida? Or have the Gators clearly separated themselves from the pack heading into the season?

Teddy Cahill: For me, Florida has clearly separated going into the season. You’re talking about a team that returns every pitcher who appeared in a game in 2020 and eight of nine regulars in the lineup and then added a top-five recruiting class. The depth the Gators have on the mound especially is unmatched across the country. That’s not to say Florida is unbeatable, but I do think it has the most talent and has very few questions. UCLA, while very good and very deep itself, has a little more unknown at this stage.

Gator (FL):

 Where does this Florida team rank among the ones that have entered the year at No. 1?

Teddy Cahill: This is worthy of more thought than I’m putting into it in this format and I may come back and look at this again later for a bigger piece. Off-handedly, the 2016 team feels like the most talented. Dane Dunning, Alex Faedo, Jonathan India, Jackson Kowar, AJ Puk and Brady Singer were all on that team and went on to be first-round picks. It also had Pete Alonso, Shaun Anderson, Michael Byrne, Dalton Guthrie, Buddy Reed, Mike Rivera, JJ Schwarz and Logan Shore. That’s some kind of loaded. This team has a lot of talent. Does it have six first-rounders over the next three years? It might! Jud Fabian and Hunter Barco look like strong bets over the next two years. Tommy Mace has that potential, as do Josh Rivera, Timmy Manning and Colby Halter. Maybe Sterlin Thompson. Any number of other pitchers if they continue to progress. I think what makes this team different than ’16 is that the ’16 group was a little older. Shore, Puk, Dunning and Reed were all well established. Alonso and Anderson would have been, had injuries not held them back a bit. The freshmen were there and very talented, but I think it was less about the first- and second-year players. This year, while Mace and Leftwich and Fabian are well established, we’re also talking about Barco and Rivera and Nathan Hickey – guys who are still just getting into the college game.

Joe (USA):

 How confident are you in college baseball’s ability to finish a season this year?

Teddy Cahill: Reasonably? Playing through the pandemic isn’t going to be easy – look no further than Michigan on Saturday shutting its entire athletic department down for two weeks because of a group of positive cases of the UK variant of the virus – but a lot more is known about the virus now than there was last March 12 when the season was canceled. College football made it through a season. College basketball is pushing on. The vaccines are being distributed. There are no certainties at this point, but I think it can be done. One thing I am certain about: a lot of people in college athletics are very mindful of the fact that spring sports already lost one season. They really don’t want to see that happen to them again.

Wildcat (AZ):

 I see you ranked U of A #15. You think they could give UCLA a run for PAC12 title? Johnson with hitters and Yeskie with the pitchers is a great combo.

Teddy Cahill: The upside in Tucson is good. If some of Arizona’s newcomers like Daniel Susac and Chase Silseth adjust to the Pac-12 well and quickly, the Wildcats can make noise. But UCLA is much more experienced and has better all-around depth. I think there is a bit of a gap between the two teams right now.

Frank (VA):

 Who is the one team you think will most outperform expectations this year? What about the team that has the highest risk/could fall short?

Teddy Cahill: I think things get muddled outside of the top eight. So, if Florida State or LSU doesn’t live up to top-10 status, I would understand how that happened. In terms of exceeding expectations, I think a South Carolina or Georgia Tech has real upside. There’s a reason they’re ranked in the back half of the 25, but if things click, both of those teams could end up making deep runs. I could really say the same for several teams. The rankings this year got very tight back there.

Mike (Hazard, KY):

 How close are the WVU Mountaineers? Any prospects or sleepers to watch? Thanks!

Teddy Cahill: Very intriguing team. West Virginia’s a bit on the younger side this year, but if those players come along a bit quicker then expected, there is some upside there. I think the question is whether they put it all together this year or in 22. They’ve got to replace Braden Zabrinsky, who did a bit of everything. But Matt McCormick and Austin Davis were off to strong starts last season offensively and return. I think they can have solid depth on the mound and they brought in a good group of newcomers. Interested to see how it all comes together in a tough Big 12.

Willy (WA):

 How close were teams like Oregon State, Washington or Oregon? It’s surprising to only see two Pac-12 teams in the Top 25.

Teddy Cahill: The three teams you mentioned were collectively 22-22 last year. It’s difficult to know what to make of them going into 2021. I like UW’s all-around talent, but they’re maybe light on impact, at least among returners. Oregon State gets Kevin Abel back, but has to replace Christian Chamberlain and was off to the worst start of the group a year ago. Oregon is hard to get a read on. I think the Ducks still need another year to really get back in the mix, but Waz turned things around quickly at Purdue, so perhaps Year 2 will see a nice bump. The Pac team that just missed the cut on the 25 was Arizona State, which I think will still be pretty good this year, despite losing a great group of position players to the draft.

Lloyd (Lakewood):

 Fullerton missed NCAAs in 2019, and were off to a bad start in 2020. If they disappoint in 2021, will VanDerHook be gone?

Teddy Cahill: It hasn’t been a great stretch for Fullerton, to be sure. But Rick Vanderhook is under contract until 2024 and while I don’t know the intimate details of Fullerton’s finances, college athletics overall isn’t booming this year. I’d be surprised if they made a move. But a lot of people said similar things before college football season and there was a normal job market this offseason. Perhaps college baseball will follow a similar path, but, again, I doubt it.

Terry (My house):

 What is the latest on a one-time transfer rule for college baseball? Do you think we’ll see a big exodus again after this season?

Teddy Cahill: The one-time transfer rule is still expected to be passed this year. Why the NCAA saw fit to tie delaying that vote to the Name, Image and Likeness legislation, is beyond me. While I understand that the Justice Department told them the NIL rules weren’t going to be good enough and that the NCAA is looking for more guidance from the federal government for those moves, the Justice Department had no problem with the transfer rule changes. But everyone still seems committed to getting transfer reform done this year. As for another big summer of transfers, yes. Until the players with extra eligibility are all out of the college baseball system, there’s going to be some of that movement because of the way grad transfers work and because a lot of schools can’t or won’t keep all their seniors.

Zak (RI):

 Do you expect opt outs from some of the top players? Seemed more common in football and basketball this year

Teddy Cahill: I don’t think you’re going to see many in baseball. I don’t know of that many college basketball opt outs. There were some players who went pro that might not have otherwise. But I don’t know of that many basketball players sitting out this season (although it’s not something I’m closely following). There were certainly football opt outs, however. But you’re talking about two very different sports and the difference of five months or so. Think about how much was unknown in August and September about how college sports would work vs. what we know today.

Tyler S (South Windsor, CT):

 How will UConn’s shift to the Big East impact their chances of making the Top 25 or being an at-large should they not win the conference tournament? Is it a significant downgrade from the AAC?

Teddy Cahill: It won’t effect their ability to make the Top 25. Big East schools float in and out of the T25, with St. John’s and Creighton both making multiple appearances in recent years. It will have some bearing on the Huskies’ at-large chances, but I don’t think it will be a huge negative. The American consistently rates as a better RPI league than the Big East, but the Big East can produce at-large teams. We had Jim Penders on the podcast this offseason and he talked about this. They might have to schedule a bit better in non-conference action (this year UConn has series at Virginia and Texas Tech) and they’ll need to take care of business in the Big East. But the upside is that they’re in a league that recruits in their footprint understand better and get easier road trips than flying out to Tampa or Wichita or Houston. I don’t think the move will be much of a negative for the Huskies.

Rob (North Carolina):

 How do you see the North Carolina Tar Heels fairing in year one of Scott Forbes’ regime? Seem to have a couple of new pieces that will play big roles…Horvath, Quick, Carlson, etc.

Teddy Cahill: UNC is going to need some of its newcomers to play right away. We didn’t get to see how it would have played out in 2020, but things were not trending the right way for the Heels. So this 2020 class, which is a strong one, is going to get its chance. This is a tough year to be young in the ACC, which is top-to-bottom stronger than it has been in recent seasons. But the Heels have talent and if the newcomers can quickly gel, they have the pieces to compete.

Gary (MI):

 Who are some players that are personal favorites of yours that you’re excited to watch this year?

Teddy Cahill: It’s hard not to be excited to watch Kumar Rocker pitch. I want to see Jaden Hill leading the LSU rotation. I want to see what Jack Leiter, Hunter Barco and Connor Prielipp do in SEC play. I’m ready to see Kevin Abel back in a Beavers uniform. I want to see the Big Ten arms like Sean Burke and Seth Lonsway and Steve Hajjar and JP Massey. I want to see how Colton Cowser and Ethan Wilson do with a big spotlight on them. I want to see Trey Faltine and Josh Rivera play shortstop. I want to watch Robert Moore and Adrian Del Castillo and Matt McLain and Jud Fabian and Robby Martin. I want to see it all, man.

Teddy Cahill: That’s where we’re going to leave it. We’re putting the finishing touches on the College Preview issue now. Hopefully that’ll be in your mailboxes soon, if your a subscriber. And we’ll have plenty more preview content over the next few weeks here online. Thanks for stopping by and for your questions!