2017 World Baseball Classic Spotlight: Parity Reigns In Competitive Pool A

According to the bookies, Team Israel is the longest of long shots at the World Baseball Classic.

Bovada, an online gaming site, rates Team Israel as a 200 to 1 shot to win the WBC outright. But that doesn’t mean that Team Israel has zero chance to advance out of Pool A. This is the pool where the underdogs have a fighting shot.

South Korea is the clear Pool A favorite. The 2009 WBC runners-up and 2008 Olympic gold medalists have a history of international success, but South Korea didn’t even make it out of the first round in 2013 and this year’s roster is solid but unspectacular. Lefthanders Won Jun Chang (15-6, 3.32 for Doosan last season) is the ace of the staff, but his 88-92 mph fastball, slider, changeup combination is more notable for being around the plate than blowing hitters away. Offensively, Korea relies a physical, power-oriented approach, but they also won’t wow opponents defensively. Korean baseball is all about offense. The league averaged 5.6 runs per game per team last year. For comparison, the U.S. peaked at 5.14 runs per game at the peak of the steroid era in 2000 and hasn’t topped 5.0 runs per game since.

Korea’s track record of success doesn’t guarantee much, however, against a fairly even pool.

The Netherlands boasts one of the best infields in the Classic. Shortstop Andrelton Simmons, third baseman Xander Bogaerts, second baseman Jonathan Schoop, shortstop Didi Gregorius and utilityman Jurickson Profar give the club the “problem” of having more infielders than spots to play them, likely forcing Profar to the outfield.

After advancing to the second round in 2009 and the semifinals in 2013, the Dutch have shown they can compete with anyone. That said, the Netherlands’ pitching staff isn’t as deep as its lineup.

Taiwan is well-rounded but lacks power arms and power bats. The team was hindered by the decision of the country’s professional league to boycott this year’s WBC as part of a dispute between the eague and the country’s baseball federation that sets rosters for international events. Three of the league’s four teams opted to allow their players to participate, but the Lamigo Monkeys stuck with the ban, robbing the team of rookie Wang Po Jung—who hit .414/.476/.689 last year with 29 home runs and 24 steals—and catcher Ling Hong Yu, who hit .400/.458/.665 last season.

Taiwan will rely some of its veteran stars. Shortstop Chih-Sheng Lin is one of the greatest players in CPBL history, but he’s also 35 years old. Outfielder Kuo-Hui Kao tied Lin for the CPBL home run lead and both will provide power in a lineup filled with more hitters than sluggers.

Israel has some thump of its own. An infield that includes Ike Davis and Nate Freiman can punish mistakes. Minor league veterans Zach Borenstein, Cody Decker and Blake Gailen add to the power. Israel also has a few power relievers in the bullpen, led by Josh Zeid, but it will have to rely on the pen as Israel doesn’t have any starter who it would want to face a lineup twice.

With all four teams boasting notable talent but also significant shortcomings, it would hardly be a surprise if any one of them advances. As much as anyone, Israel has a chance to advance and stick it to the bookies.