Reds Pay Costly Price For Alfredo Rodriguez

The Reds having an agreement to sign 21-year-old Cuban shortstop Alfredo Rodriguez is no surprise. In November, I wrote that the Reds were heavily considered the favorites to sign Rodriguez. While Rodriguez is not the type of player worth going over your bonus pool to sign, the expectation at that time was that the Reds were going to push well beyond their pool to sign him anyway.

MLB officially cleared Rodriguez to sign on Monday, at which point MLB.com reported that Rodriguez had an agreement to sign with the Reds for $6 million. A source confirmed that Rodriguez will sign his contract during the current 2015-16 signing period rather than wait for the new bonus pools to kick in on July 2.

While not unexpected, it is still an enormous price to pay, both in terms of the money the Reds will spend and they opportunity cost.

The Rodriguez signing will put the Reds well over their international bonus pool, resulting in a 100 percent tax on their pool overage and restricting them to signings of no more than $300,000 on pool-eligible players during the next two signing periods, beginning on July 2.

The Reds have a $2,873,000 bonus pool for the current 2015-16 signing period, which began last year on July 2, with their current spending having put them right at the cusp of maxing out their entire pool already. So the total amount between the bonus and the tax that the Reds will pay to sign Rodriguez is $12 million.

That itself is pricey for a shortstop who is a slick defender but has a long, long ways to go at the plate. Rodriguez is a solid prospect who any team would like to have, but if Rodriguez had been eligible for the draft, he would not have been a first-round pick. His talent is commensurate with players who have gone in the third to the sixth round of the draft in recent years.

Rodriguez was the Serie Nacional rookie of the year last season, though he won the award in part because outfielder Yusniel Diaz left the country before the winner was announced. Rodriguez hit just .265/.301/.284 in 304 plate appearances with just four extra-base hits, 11 walks and 38 strikeouts.

Rodriguez doesn’t swing and miss excessively, but his righthanded swing will need work, his overaggressive approach impairs his ability to get on base, he lacks power now and doesn’t project to hit for power in the future. He will probably start his career at one of the Class A levels, and even there, he might struggle at the plate. The selling point on Rodriguez is his defense. He’s a plus runner with excellent footwork, quick actions, good agility and body control along with a nose for the ball, winning a gold glove award in his only Serie Nacional season.

Jose Iglesias and Adeiny Hechavarria were both smooth-fielding shortstops with question marks on their bats when they came out of Cuba, but even the scouts I spoke with who were more optimistic about those two players putting it together at the plate felt that Rodriguez wasn’t as advanced as a hitter. Even if everything goes right for Rodriguez, it’s unlikely he would ever hit higher than the bottom of the lineup.

Beyond paying $12 million for a player with that offensive risk level, the Reds will sacrifice more than most teams by going over their bonus pool. The exact pool numbers aren’t out yet for the upcoming 2016-17 period, which begins on July 2, but the Reds know they will have the second-highest bonus pool in baseball. Last year’s No. 2 pool space checked in at $4.97 million, so this year the Reds likely would have had at least $5 million in their pool.

Once the Rodriguez contract becomes official, the Reds won’t be able to leverage that pool advantage, which carries even greater value in a signing period where 10 teams—including typical international heavyweights like the Yankees, Red Sox, Dodgers and Cubs—are all in the $300,000 penalty box already for exceeding their bonus pools, which would have reduced the Reds’ competition for top talent.

It is similar to what the Diamondbacks did last year in January by signing righthander Yoan Lopez for an $8.26 million bonus. Like Rodriguez, Lopez was an intriguing young prospect but not a player with equivalent talent of a first-round pick. Yet including the penalties, not only did the Diamondbacks have to pay around $16 million just to sign Lopez, they also squandered the game’s biggest international bonus pool for the 2015-16 signing period, which opened last year on July 2. While the Diamondbacks retained all of their pool space, as a result of the Lopez signing, they were unable to sign any players for more than $300,000 during the current period and will face the same restrictions for next year’s signing period as well.

The Diamondbacks were not big players on the July 2 market during the 2014-15 signing period in which they signed Lopez. They also didn’t sign any other players for more than $10,000 after they signed Lopez the rest of the signing period. The Diamondbacks went over their pool for the sole reason of signing Lopez, costing themselves valuable resources in a decision that will have ramifications on the team’s international program for years. If you’re going to be restricted to signings of no more than $300,000 for two years, you have to get at least three years’ worth of talent in one year to make it worthwhile.

There’s still time for the Reds to sign more players subject to the bonus pools before the current signing period closes on June 15. Cuban outfielder Jorge Ona, still waiting for free agency, also trains in the same program as Rodriguez. He could be one target, as could shortstop Randy Arozarena or outfielder Lazaro Armenteros or a pitcher like Norge Ruiz or Vladimir Gutierrez. Signing multiple players from that group would be smart at this point, but paying $12 million for Rodriguez and giving up two years of bonus pool advantages is a steep sacrifice to make.