Houston Astros Top 10 Prospects Chat

Moderator: J.J. Cooper will be here at 2 p.m. Eastern to chat about the Astros’ top prospects.

Kelly (St Cloud MN): Did JD Davis get any love for your list? What's his upside?
J.J. Cooper: Hey everyone thanks for a TON of questions in the queue already. Not surprised there is a lot of interest in the Astros right now. This is a team that is coming off a playoff berth that should be better than it was last year over the next several years. This is still a very deep farm system. And that explains why J.D. Davis is not a top 10 prospect. He would crack the Top 10 of a lot of other systems. He didn’t miss by much. He has a chance to be a regular at third base although more of a second-division regular than a front-line starter.

Scott (Texas): Would you consider Frances Martes a Top 50 prospect in the game at this point?
J.J. Cooper: To me? Absolutely. His stuff is very reminiscent of Lance McCullers, but Martes has much better control at the same point in his development. There is a whole lot to like.

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): Where do you see Bregman moving to position wise? With Correa and Altuve locking up the middle for the the near future is OF the destination? Thanks for the chat !
J.J. Cooper: I think for now he’s the Astros’ best backup plan in case Correa missed significant time with an injury. Long-term, the Astros likely will have to trade someone. Bregman’s best value comes from playing in the middle infield. It’s hard to see him doing that in Houston anytime soon with Correa and Altuve. He could slide over to third base and yeah, he could handle the outfield but again that’s probably not the best fit for him. The Astros felt Bregman was the best player on the board when they drafted. You figure out the logjams later.

Danny (Houston): How bullish are you on Jon Kemmer? Is he a future regular or extra OF?
J.J. Cooper: He easily made the Top 30. There still is a little skepticism out there among scouts, but you cannot scoff at what’s he’s done. Kemmer has hit everywhere he’s played and there’s some legitimate power in there as well. He’s at least an extra OF with a good chance of being more.

Ringo (Octopusses Garden): We all love Tyler White. That is all.
J.J. Cooper: Same here. Great season. Great guy and followed it up with an outstanding winter season as well. He easily made the Top 30. If you have a concern it’s that he’s a future first baseman with less than profile power.

Ringo (Octopusses Garden): Where does this farm system rank? They traded some big names the last year but they also scored some big names in the draft. Is this a top 3 system?
J.J. Cooper: Very high. Not going to say how high as we’ll be rolling that out in our org talent rankings very soon. But they will be in the top group. It is extremely impressive when you consider how much talent the Astros have traded away in the past year or so. This is a team that has graduated Correa and McCullers and traded away Phillips, Nottingham, Appel, Eshelman, Santana, Hader, Nottingham, Mengden, Velasquez, Lee and Houser.

Matt H (Texas): How would you rank the prospects the Astros have traded away during the last year?
J.J. Cooper: 1. Velasquez. 2. Phillips. 3. Hader. 4. Santana. 5. Appel. 6. Nottingham. 7. Houser. 8. Lee. 9. Mengden. 10. Arauz (the one they traded, which is a big drop from No. 9). Yes Velasquez and Santana are no longer eligible but that would be Top 10 that compares favorable with a whole lot of current Top 10s.

Ben (Leland Grove): How confident are you that A.J. Reed doesn't become a fulltime DH for the Astros in the next few years?
J.J. Cooper: Not necessarily confident as I think he could very easily end up as a DH who plays some 1B. His bat is good enough to provide a lot of value as a DH.

VandyGuy (VandyLand): With Tony Kemp now doing some work as an OF, is Houston seeing him as a possible utility piece for this year?
J.J. Cooper: Possibly but he’s not necessarily ready yet. Defensively he’s got a good bit of work to do in the outfield.

Brian S. (Houston, TX): Pretty bold to go with Reed at #1, love it. I take it you're pretty sold on him as a hitter, rather than just a guy with big power. Just how big of an offensive threat do you see him as at the ML level?
J.J. Cooper: It’s hard to find a minor league hitter with a better track record than Reed right now. He was our College Player of the Year 2 years ago. He was runner-up for Minor League Player of the Year this year. He hits wherever he goes. Reed doesn’t have exceptional bat speed, but he does have an outstanding ability to put bat to ball with exceptional power. The combination of power, understanding of the strike zone and ability to make contact is pretty special.

MJ (Valpo): Danry Vasquez seems like an intriguing prospect--still very young playing in the upper levels now, and he's having a good off-season, is he creeping up at all?
J.J. Cooper: Vasquez didn’t crack the Top 30. It’s a deep system but Vasquez has a long ways still to go. He’s a left fielder with very little power–he’s never hit 10 home runs in a season and that includes two stints in Lancaster.

Grant (NYC): Where would Appel have ranked?
J.J. Cooper: Appel ranked 8th before the trade right behind Paulino. As we have been writing since 2013 (https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/bryant-gray-top-appel-in-first-pro-look), there are causes for concern whether he will ever reach his still very significant ceiling. A change of scenery to the Phillies could help.

Paul (Houston, TX): With Correa having SS on lockdown, is Bregman's future likely to be at 3B or 2B?
J.J. Cooper: Last I checked Altuve is signed through 2019 and is a pretty significant piece of the team as well. Unless the team eventually looks to trade Altuve to open up a spot for the less expensive Bregman third base is the only infield option. And even there he’s battling Colin Moran and J.D. Davis.

Dan (Jackson Co.): Did you guys forget about JD Davis, or did he recently get traded? Figured he was a slam-dunk for this list!?
J.J. Cooper: Didn’t forget but he’s not No. 11 either. Who would you have left off for him? Do remember that this list has already seen Appel depart in a trade this offseason.

Patrick (Sandpoint, Idaho): Hi J.J., Do you believe it is a given that Bregman ends up at 2B? What is your best offensive profile for him both floor and ceiling and to which do you lean?
J.J. Cooper: I think in another organization it would depend on team need. Bregman is a little stretched at shortstop but there are definitely big league shortstops who are worse than him defensively. He’s very reliable, just not so rangy. With the Astros? It’s hard to find the fit in the short term.

Paul (Houston): When do you think we'll see Martes? Next year? Should I be worried about AJ Reed vs LHP?
J.J. Cooper: Martes will likely start in Double-A and could help the big league club in 2016 if they needed a reliever but likely needs a little longer before he’s ready to start. LHPs for Reed? That’s what is left on his to-do list. It is a problem as he’s much better against RHPs.

Dave (Brooklyn): Happy Friday, J.J.!! Thanks for the Chat! Where would Mark Appel have ranked in the Houston system? In BA's great annual book (order one today!), will Appel be with Houston or Philly?
J.J. Cooper: Appel will be on the Astros list in the Handbook as the deal happened after the transaction deadline.

Dex (North Dakota): What's your take on Tyler White as a prospect? He has hit at every level, walks a lot, shows great contact skills with game power. Seems like a solid hitter who appears to be MLB ready. Where does he rank? Do you anticipate any problems when he debuts in MLB?
J.J. Cooper: The big problems for White is that he doesn’t have much of a defensive position (he’s a first baseman at best) and he’s more of a hitter than a slugger, which is a tougher fit at first base.

Esteban (West Palm Beach): What makes you like Paulino more than Feliz? And Martes over Bregman: How good is Martes?
J.J. Cooper: Paulino vs. Feliz. There’s a decent chance that Feliz ends up as a reliever. Paulino has better overall stuff. What I mean by that is that Feliz has better pure velo on his fastball but Paulino’s fastball is just as effective (and similar velo at his best). The big difference is Paulino’s secondary stuff is significantly more advanced than Feliz’s. Martes vs. Bregman — ceiling vs. reliability. Martes is a 19-year-old pitcher with solid control who reached Double-A and happens to have 2 plus-plus pitches. There is a lot to like.

Ringo (Octopusses Garden): Any chance Riley Ferrell could start? Is him starting minor league games at all part of the plan or are they embracing him purely as a reliever?
J.J. Cooper: When he was in college there was a thought of trying to make him a starter–he has shown three pitches in bullpen sessions. But at this point he is reliever. He needs to improve his control first to reach his significant ceiling as a reliever.

Houston Jimenez (Houston): How many are locks for the top 100? How many in the argument or on the bubble?
J.J. Cooper: Top five are all slam dunk locks in my mind. To me the top 7 all have strong cases.

Rich (NJ): Do you see Max Stassi becoming an everyday catcher for the Astros or another team? He seems to have a major league bat with some pop. Thanks,
J.J. Cooper: More likely aspirations of being a backup catcher. There is a lot of swing and miss there and low batting averages.

Colt Fortyfive (Houston): The Long awaited BA Top 10 for the Houston Astros!! Can it be said that #4,5,6 could easily be #1,2,3 on a 1/3rd of the teams in the league, or is that a major over statement. Thanks
J.J. Cooper: Yes. A lot of teams would be thrilled to have Bregman, Tucker, Cameron as their top 3.

Josh (Kentucky): What are your thoughts on Jason Martin? Every time I watched him he seemed like he could be a really solid player. Doesn't really have any tools that wow you but can do everything but maybe hit for power well.
J.J. Cooper: He wasn’t really close to cracking the Top 30. He’s a left fielder, so as you mentioned he’s going to need to develop some power.

Ken Houston (The Astrodome): IF.... Giolito, Reyes, Urias, Matz, Glasnow, Berrios, Snell, and perhaps Deleon, and Espinoza start the argument for a top 10 pitching prospects in Baseball then where could Martes enter the conversation. Thanks!!
J.J. Cooper: He’s not going to miss that group by much in my mind.

Chris (Denver): What's a good under-the-radar prospect not on the Top 10 list who has the best chance to make an impact in Houston?
J.J. Cooper: Jon Kemmer. Mentioned in a chat question earlier but he really can hit. There are a LOT of guys who you could mention here. Tyler White, J.D. Davis, Albert Abreu…I could keep going.

Grant B (Houston): Will Martes or Musgrove make an impact at the major league level this year? Does either have true TOR potential?
J.J. Cooper: If Musgrove is healthy he should be ready to help the big league club at some point in 2016. He has exceptional control to go with quality stuff. He just needs to stay healthy and pile up innings.

Turk (Texas): Bregman showed a lot of polish & growth in his tools last year after being drafted. Is his dropping to third on the prospect list a function of Reed & Martes just showing their tools that much better?
J.J. Cooper: Yeah more the success of them. Bregman is a very good prospect but he does have a lower ceiling than those guys (and some of the prospects behind him). Bregman is more of a low-risk extremely productive player.

HoustonBill (Houston): Even after their trades in the past year, the Astros have a Top 10 farm system. The Angels have one of the worst. Just curious - if the Astros #11 thru #20 prospects were in the Angel organization, how many would you rank in the Angels Top 10?
J.J. Cooper: Eight to nine of them. The Angels system is very, very thin.

Turk (Texas): Will James Hoyt make the Astros' bullpen this season?
J.J. Cooper: I think he is up at least part of the year. I can’t help but have a soft spot for a former indy ball pitcher who has developed into a legit prospect.

Axel (Milwaukee): Assuming the Astros never traded for Gomez. Where would Phillips, Hader, Santiago fit into the Astros top 10?
J.J. Cooper: I assume you mean Santana. He’s no longer eligible. Phillips would have been in the No. 4-6 range. Hader would have been somewhere in the 9-10 range behind Paulino.

Kaz (AK): Does Bregman make a Conforto/Schwarber-like rise to the majors in 2016?
J.J. Cooper: Very different type of player. For one, he doesn’t have a spot in Houston right now and for another, he’s more of a well-rounded player rather than one with a huge impact bat.

Jamaal Aldensen (Yukon): What is the ceiling of Francis Martes? Could he actually become a SP1 ace assuming everything goes to plan? Or is he another high ceiling high risk player? Thanks
J.J. Cooper: Yes and yes. Those two questions are not mutually exclusive in any way.

Noel (Portland, OR): Are you surprised that Teoscar Hernandez wasn't selected in the rule 5 draft?
J.J. Cooper: He had an awful year. His tools are loud but not loud enough to make teams overlook that.

Albert the Astro (Outside Houston): What made Houston place Nolan Fontana on the 40-man just before the deadline? Looking at his stats he didn't seem likely to be lost in the Rule 5.
J.J. Cooper: He’s the kind of guy a team could very easily take to add to their 25-man roster as a versatile utility infielder. Taylor Featherston stuck all year last year–compare his numbers to Fontana’s.

Scott (Texas): If Appel were still in Houston's system, where would he rank? Are Martes and Musgrove better pitching prospects at the moment?
J.J. Cooper: Martes, Musgrove and Paulino in my opinion.

Dave (Texas): Hey Mr. Cooper! Thanks for the chat! What was the reasoning behind Musgrove over Feliz? I would have thought he would be much higher on this list
J.J. Cooper: Musgrove leapt over Feliz more than Feliz fell. Musgrove had an exceptional season and he did it with very good stuff. Feliz’s concerns coming into the season–the lack of a consistent secondary pitch–are still there and if there is one of the Astros’ many upper-level starting pitching prospects who could end up in the pen I think Feliz is the most likely candidate.

Brad (NJ): Fisher at 10 and Cameron at 5 seems backwards... I guess you would give Cameron the edge in defense and position being CF vs LF, but if he doesnt hit enough, none of that defense or positional value will matter.
J.J. Cooper: Very different prospects. One is a CF, one is a LF as you mentioned. That’s a big difference. And Fisher carries as many, if not more, concerns about his hit tool as Cameron does.

David (texas): Are you guys really high on Paulino, or the opposite for the other players? I would have imagined Paulino would slot in the 10-15 range
J.J. Cooper: Really high on Paulino. Did you read his scouting report? It’s glowing.

Dave (Plymouth, MA): Hey guys, thoughts on the potential of Garrett Stubbs?
J.J. Cooper: Excellent defensive catcher. The concern is that Stubbs is not very big and has very little power. His likely ceiling is as a big league backup. Lot of work to do to get to there.

Mitchell Baker (Indiana University): What is AJ Reed's ceiling? Also, I know comps are hard, but do you have one for him?
J.J. Cooper: How about a Ryan Howard upside? I know he tailed off but from 2005-2010 Howard was very impressive.

Mitch (Moreland): Obviously not a fair comp for anyone, but how does Reed's profile compare to Goldscmidt's at the same stage?
J.J. Cooper: He’s not the athlete Goldschmidt is. That would be the difference to me.

Henry (Florida): Hey Cooper, quick question about these lists. Are these top 10 lists done only by one person (whoever does the chat), or are they a collaboration with all the guys from BA? Thanks!
J.J. Cooper: They are collaborations. All of our BA lists are. I wrote the Astros list, but we talk things through in the office. Tweaks and re-ranks are suggested and we hammer it all out together.

Mark (Us): Did Miguel Angel Sierra get any consideration for top 10?
J.J. Cooper: No. He made the Top 30 but no way he cracks the Top 10 already in a system as deep as this one. There is a lot of distance from being a top July 2 prospect to the big leagues.

JD (Houston): Can you talk about the Astros minor league catching situation? Is Pena good enough on defense to make the majors without big improvement with the bat? How would you rank Pena, Gonzalez, and Heineman?
J.J. Cooper: Gonzalez is first of that group you listed right now. Still like Pena. Stassi needs to be mentioned as well. Then there are guys like Stubbs and Heineman as well. It’s a deep group although none really has an everyday catcher profile.

sam (NYC): Hey - do you know the latest ETA for the Handbook?
J.J. Cooper: Soon. Very soon. We hope to be shipping them out in the next couple of weeks.

Timmy Ballgame (Houston): Any young DSL or GCL standouts other than Daz/Tucker that we can look forward to?
J.J. Cooper: A large number. Miguel Angel Sierra, Gilberto Celestino, Franklin Perez and a lot more.

Reuben (Durham, NC): So scouts are not still concerned about AJ Reed's "lack" of bat speed? I'm just surprised to see him leapfrog the likes of Bregman, Daz, and Tucker when he seemed like this type of player in college.
J.J. Cooper: There are still concerns. We have a lot of fun debates about Reed in the BA offices. You can find skeptics who think his outstanding NCAA and MILB production won’t translate. But you can also find evaluators who think he is a future star. I don’t trust my own eyes too much as I like to talk to a lot of scouts but I was very impressed with his ability to spoil pitch after pitch with two strikes.

AstrosFuture (Texas): If you had to choose one prospect to be the "breakout" guy this year, who would it be?
J.J. Cooper: Taking this question in a different direction to wrap up the chat. No one asked about Michael Freeman. It’s understandable but I find the big lefty fascinating. He was drafted last year, but I wouldn’t be shocked to see him pitch in Houston’s pen this year. Very unusual pitcher. Thanks everyone for a ton of questions. Sorry I couldn’t come close to answering all of them but I tried to hit on most of the names that kept cropping up.