Top 100 Split Decisions: Bauers vs. Smith vs. Bradley

We had some debates in our discussions to reach a consensus for the Top 100 Prospects. In a desire for transparency, we give you some of the tougher decisions and our rationale for the selection.

Jake Bauers (78) vs. Dominic Smith (79) vs. Bobby Bradley (93)

J.J. Cooper: I like how we have Bauers and Smith back-to-back because they are very similar type of prospects. Both are strong defensive first basemen (edge to Smith) and above-average hitters with questions about how much power they’ll hit. Bauers is a better athlete (and can play left field as well as first base). Smith was obviously a much higher draft pick, but a lot of that came back to Smith’s longer track record as an amateur. From their senior year in high school on, Bauers has matched or bettered Smith hit for hit and he’s a little younger. But the more I think about it, the more I think Bradley could end up the best of this trio. I understand why he’s ranked third because he’s a level or two behind Smith and Bauers, but when it comes to ceiling I think Bradley has significantly more upside. He’s dominated the AZL and the Midwest League in his first two seasons with the kind of power we’ll never see from Bauers or Smith. The strikeout rate is concerning, but it wasn’t high enough to think he can’t tame it as he matures—he’ll start this season in high Class A as a 19-year-old.

John Manuel: I ranked Bauers ahead of Smith in our Florida State League Top 20. Smith may have a bit more ceiling but because he’s a bad-body guy with some questions about his work ethic and future power potential. One other piece of info on Smith that raises doubts is the lack of energy he shows day to day, particularly defensively. I’ve talked to SoCal area scouts who observed the same things when he was an amateur. Bradley has significantly more power potential but the greatest risk of the trio; his strikeout rate is higher than any other player on the Top 100 other than Joey Gallo, who has more power, has hit 40 home runs in a pro season and has reached the major leagues.

Ben Badler: I have all three of these players bunched fairly close together. Bradley’s raw power is tremendous, and if he learns to make more contact, he could be the best player of this group. But we’ve also said the same thing about too many sluggers who crushed A-ball pitching with alarming strikeout rates only to see the holes in their swings and their approaches get exposed as they face better pitching. So while I agree with J.J. that Bradley absolutely could be the best player of this group, I’m more comfortable betting on Bauers’ bat. The short swing, the ability to recognize spin and control the strike zone, those are all strong markers of future success, especially from a guy who was already in Double-A as a teenager. The modest home run output is a risk factor at a position where you have to mash, but he’s still so young that the power could come later on, like it did for Adrian Gonzalez or Anthony Rizzo, although we’ve also seen plenty of other examples where it never developed.