NL Preview: Cubs Are Now The Hunted
The BA staff previews the National League, looking at team scenarios, best pickups, biggest losses and breakthrough players.
NATIONAL LEAGUE EAST
New York Mets
Best-Case Scenario: The Mets cruise to another division title as the rotation stays healthy and effective, the bullpen congeals behind closer Jeurys Familia and enhanced lineup depth propels the club’s run total toward the top of the NL.
Worst-Case Scenario: The young pitching staff appears burdened from the 2015 postseason workload—the top four starters plus Familia logged 100 October innings—and allows more runs than expected, dropping the club to the .500 level.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: OF Yoenis Cespedes (re-signed), SS Asdrubal Cabrera, 2B Neil Walker, LHP Antonio Bastardo
Biggest Offseason Losses: 2B Daniel Murphy, LHP Jon Niese, RHP Tyler Clippard.
Next First-Time All-Star: RHP Noah Syndergaard
| POSTSEASON CRYSTAL BALL |
| Wild Cards |
| Cardinals, Dodgers |
| Pennant |
| Cubs |
| World Series |
| Cubs over Red Sox |
| Cy Young award |
| Clayton Kershaw, Dodgers |
| MVP |
| Bryce Harper, Nationals |
Washington Nationals
Best-Case Scenario: From Stephen Strasburg and Anthony Rendon to Jayson Werth and Wilson Ramos, the Nationals are stocked with rebound candidates and talented enough to erase memories of the 2015 club’s underachievement.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Nationals exported more talent than they imported in the offseason, and maybe they don’t have quite enough depth behind ace Max Scherzer and MVP Bryce Harper to stay out of the wild-card scrum.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: 2B Daniel Murphy, OF Ben Revere, RHP Shawn Kelley.
Biggest Offseason Losses: RHP Jordan Zimmermann, OF Denard Span, SS Ian Desmond, 3B Yunel Escobar, RHP Drew Storen.
Next First-Time All-Star: 3B Anthony Rendon
Miami Marlins
Best-Case Scenario: Jose Fernandez and free agent import Wei-Yin Chen anchor a deep stable of rotation options for new VP of pitching development Jim Benedict to work with, while the club’s strong up-the-middle defense hard-throwing bullpen and heavy-hitting outfield make the Marlins a wild-card contender.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Marlins are counting on rebounds or returns to health from much of the roster other than 2B Dee Gordon, and they have a lot of ground to make up after finishing 14th in runs and eighth in runs allowed in 2015.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: Chen, RHP Edwin Jackson, 3B Chris Johnson
Biggest Offseason Losses: 3B Casey McGehee, RHP Trevor Williams
Next First-Time All-Star: SS Adeiny Hechavarria
Atlanta Braves
Best-Case Scenario: Atlanta’s mix of veterans like Freddie Freeman, Nick Markakis and A.J. Pierzynski and Cuban imports Hector Olivera and Adonis Garcia make the offense push for a .500 finish, setting the table for a 2017 run.
Worst-Case Scenario: Olivera bombs, young pitchers Matt Wisler, Williams Perez and Mike Foltynewicz falter and the Braves keep fans away in droves while tumbling toward 100 losses.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: SS Erick Aybar, C Tyler Flowers, RHP Bud Norris
Biggest Offseason Losses: OF Cameron Maybin, RHP Shelby Miller, SS Andrelton Simmons
Next First-Time All-Star: OF/3B Hector Olivera
Philadelphia Phillies
Best-Case Scenario: The Phillies’ veteran rotation additions—RHPs Jeremy Hellickson and Charlie Morton—supplement young arms like Aaron Nola, Jerad Eickhoff and Vincent Velasquez, depth that steers Philadelphia clear of a second straight No. 1 overall draft pick in 2017.
Worst-Case Scenario: Phillies hitters recorded the lowest adjusted-OPS+ (86) in the majors in 2015, and they’re counting on rookies and other young players to turn that around in 2016—so 100 losses isn’t off the table.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: Hellickson, Morton, RHP Vincent Velasquez, OF Tyler Goeddel
Biggest Offseason Losses: RHP Ken Giles, RHP Aaron Harang, RHP Chad Billingsley
Next First-Time All-Star: 3B Maikel Franco
NATIONAL LEAGUE CENTRAL
Chicago Cubs
Best-Case Scenario: Anything less than a World Series appearance will be a disappointment for the Cubs, who receive praise for integrating prospects but also added free agents Jason Heyward, John Lackey and Ben Zobrist last offseason, while retaining Dexter Fowler.
Worst-Case Scenario: The Cubs face virtually downside risk with their diversified offense, but an injury to ace Jake Arrieta coupled with natural regression from their relief corps could lower them from NL Central favorites to wild-card range.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: Heyward, Lackey, Zobrist, RHP Adam Warren
Biggest Offseason Losses: 2B Starlin Castro, RHP Dan Haren
Next First-Time All-Star: OF/C Kyle Schwarber
St. Louis Cardinals
Best-Case Scenario: The only team to win 100 games in 2015, the Cardinals’ early exit from the playoffs sets them up to be underrated in 2016, but a dynamic young outfield, a series of low-key acquisitions and the healthy return of C Yadier Molina will help St. Louis maintain its strong run-prevention model.
Worst-Case Scenario: Free agents Jason Heyward and David Price spurned St. Louis as free agents in the offseason, and the Cardinals’ usually robust farm system has entered a comparative dry period, leaving them out of the playoffs for the first time since 2010.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: RHP Mike Leake, 2B Jedd Gyorko, RHP Seung-Hwan Oh, C Brayan Pena
Biggest Offseason Losses: OF Jason Heyward, RHP John Lackey, OF Jon Jay.
Next First-Time All-Star: 2B Kolten Wong or OF Randal Grichuk
Pittsburgh Pirates
Best-Case Scenario: The Pirates lost 1B Pedro Alvarez and 2B Neil Walker and signed no marquee free agents, but a versatile, mix-and-match infield, athletic outfield, deep pitching corps and a well-stocked farm system get them over the hump for a Division title.
Worst-Case Scenario: Going head to head with the star-studded Cubs and well-rounded Cardinals in the NL Central, the Pirates can’t keep pace and miss the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: 1B John Jaso, LHP Jon Niese, 1B Jason Rogers
Biggest Offseason Losses: Alvarez, LHP Antonio Bastardo, RHP Charlie Morton, Walker
Next First-Time All-Star: LF Starling Marte
Cincinnati Reds
Best-Case Scenario: A productive offense, driven by Joey Votto’s usual brilliance but also spurred by breakouts from Billy Hamilton and Jay Bruce, complements a power pitching staff that benefits from the return of Homer Bailey.
Worst-Case Scenario: Cincinnati’s lack of depth pushes it down the crowded NL Central standings, with a No. 1 pick in 2017 the only silver lining.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: OF Tyler Holt, 2B/SS Jose Peraza, OF Scott Schebler
Biggest Offseason Losses: LHP Aroldis Chapman, 3B Todd Frazier
Next First-Time All-Star: RHP Raisel Iglesias
Milwaukee Brewers
Best-Case Scenario: With no plans to contend in 2016, the Brewers get breakout seasons from future key pieces such as Domingo Santana, yet still lose enough games to secure the No. 1 pick and top international bonus pool for 2017 to help their re-build.
Worst-Case Scenario: Jonathan Lucroy struggles and tanks his trade value, while a slew of other rebuilding teams crater even lower in the standings than the Brewers, pushing them out of a top 10 pick.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions:, RHP Chase Anderson, 1B Chris Carter, SS Jonathan Villar
Biggest Offseason Losses: OF Khris Davis, SS Jean Segura, RHP Francisco Rodriguez, 1B Adam Lind
Next First-Time All-Star: RHP Jeremy Jeffress
NATIONAL LEAGUE WEST
San Francisco Giants
Best-Case Scenario: New acquisitions such as Johnny Cueto, Jeff Samardzija and Denard Span mesh with the holdover core from the 2014 World Series champs to produce a fourth championship season in the last six years.
Worst-Case Scenario: Cueto (health) and Samardzija (home runs) founder, and a veteran bullpen shows its years and falters, giving the hated Dodgers and resurgent Diamondbacks enough room to push past the third-place Giants.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: RHPs Cueto and Samardzija, OF Span
Biggest Offseason Losses: LHP Jeremy Affeldt, OFs Alejandro de Aza, Marlon Byrd, RHP Tim Hudson
Next First-Time All-Star: 1B Brandon Belt
Los Angeles Dodgers
Best-Case Scenario: Joc Pederson and Yasiel Puig adjust on the field and off it, and the lefty-heavy rotation stays healthy behind Clayton Kershaw, helping the Dodgers hold off Arizona and San Francisco.
Worst-Case Scenario: Pitchers from Scott Kazmir, Brian Anderson, Hyun-Jin Ryu and Kenta Maeda can’t stay healthy and the Dodgers don’t have the depth to hold on, forcing them to miss the playoffs for the first time in four years.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: LHP Scott Kazmir, RHP Kenta Maeda, OF Trayce Thompson
Biggest Offseason Losses: RHP Zack Greinke, 2B/SS Jose Peraza, SS Jimmy Rollins
Next First-Time All-Star: SS Corey Seager
Arizona Diamondbacks
Best-Case Scenario: Zack Greinke, Paul Goldschmidt and A.J. Pollock provide the star power, while Shelby Miller, Pat Corbin and Robbie Ray provide a strong backup band for Greinke in the rotation as Arizona makes the playoffs for just the second time in nine years.
Worst-Case Scenario: Corbin, Miller, Ray and Rubby de la Rosa prove insufficient backup to Greinke in the rotation, while a low-OBP lineup leaves Goldschmidt without enough RBI opportunities.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: RHPs Tyler Clippard, Greinke and Miller, SS Jean Segura
Biggest Offseason Losses: RHP Chase Anderson, 2B Aaron Hill, OF Ender Inciarte
Next First-Time All-Star: OF David Peralta
San Diego Padres
Best-Case Scenario: A hard-throwing rotation coalesces behind veteran James Shields, Wil Myers breaks through and the Padres push for a wild-card spot as was expected last season.
Worst-Case Scenario: Fernando Rodney and the revamped bullpen blow early leads, Matt Kemp gets little help in the lineup and the Padres challenge the Rockies for last place in the West, again.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: OF Jon Jay, LHP Drew Pomeranz, SS Alexei Ramirez
Biggest Offseason Losses: 3B/2B Jedd Gyroko, RHP Craig Kimbrel, OF Justin Upton
Next First-Time All-Star: 1B/OF Wil Myers
Colorado Rockies
Best-Case Scenario: Nolan Arenado and Carlos Gonzalez hit from start to finish, while young righties Eddie Butler and Jon Gray buttress the rotation to get Colorado going in the right direction for 2017.
Worst-Case Scenario: Gonzalez starts poorly and gets sold low at the Aug. 1 deadline, Jose Reyes continues his downward spiral and the Rockies earn the top pick in the ’17 draft.
Biggest Offseason Acquisitions: LHP Jake McGee, OF Gerardo Parra, HP Chad Qualls
Biggest Offseason Losses: RHP John Axford, OF Corey Dickerson, 1B Justin Morneau
Next First-Time All-Star: RHP Chad Bettis
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