Red Sox Dominate Player Of The Year Favorites

The very nature of BA’s Minor League Player of the Year award makes it difficult to predict. However, it’s also fun to predict.

Two years ago, if you’d given me Kris Bryant versus The Field, I would have taken Bryant. He’d won our College POY award and was coming off a pro debut that included a MVP turn in the Arizona Fall League.

Last year, we had no obvious favorite. My picks in this space last year included favorites Byron Buxton, Addison Russell and Joey Gallo; two candidates with strong cases, Carlos Correa and Lucas Giolito; and “dark horses” Aaron Judge and Franklin Barreto.

As it turned out, Russell and Correa didn’t stick around in the minors long enough, with Correa winning the American League Rookie of the Year trophy. Buxton was having a POY-level season in Double-A before a promotion to the majors, while none of the others had seasons in the mix with A.J. Reed and 2015 winner Blake Snell.

So I’ll focus on guys who can have big years, but will spend far and away most of the season in the minor leagues.

The Top Candidates

Andrew Benintendi, of, Red Sox: The College Players of the Year who proceeded him, Bryant and Reed, both dominated the minors the next year, with Bryant winning Minor League POY. Benintendi seems poised to perform at a high level as well, with the power to put up the kind of attention-grabbing home run numbers to win the award.

Yoan Moncada, 2b, Red Sox: Last year’s Cuban import cost $63 million, but in the second half, he looked worth the price of admission. He batted .305 with seven of his eight home runs, plus 40 steals in the season’s final 51 games. Moncada could finish 2016 in Double-A, but he’s very likely to spend the entire season in the minors.

Anthony Alford, of, Blue Jays: He has the polished plate approach to thrive in the upper minors, and Toronto’s outfield may not have room to accommodate the former college football player—even if he has a monster season. We’ve been partial to players with upper-level success in the past, and Alford should start 2016 in Double-A.

Longer Shots

Lucas Giolito, rhp, Nationals: The 2012 first-round pick may have the best fastball and curveball in the minors, and he’s stayed healthy since his Tommy John surgery of his draft year. The bigger problem is he may be too good to spend the entire season in the minors.

Jorge Mateo, ss, Yankees: New York’s top prospect led the minors with 82 stolen bases last season at two Class A stops. If he approaches that in the higher levels while continuing last year’s late-season power spike, look out.

Dansby Swanson, ss, Braves: After starring the last two seasons at Vanderbilt, Swanson has plenty of motivation after being the fastest-traded No. 1 overall draft pick ever. He may have to tone down his swing-and-miss tendencies a bit, but Swanson has premium makeup to go with plus tools, and should have success right away.

Bobby Bradley, 1b, Indians: Bradley hit 11 home runs more than any other Midwest Leaguer last season. He’ll move up to high Class A in 2016, where his strikeout-to-walk ratio from 2015 (148-to-56) may make it difficult for him to repeat that level of success. However, power is power, and Bradley has enough to put up an A.J. Reed-type of season.

Brendan Rodgers, ss, Rockies: The consensus top player in the 2015 draft class, a motivated, healthy Rodgers, combined with the comfy confines of Asheville’s McCormick Field, should emerge as the top candidate in low Class A.

Anderson Espinoza, rhp, Red Sox: Espinoza is unlikely to pitch enough to put up the kind of crazy numbers a player needs to put up for the POY hardware. That said, Espinoza sounds like a combination of Felix Hernandez and Pedro Martinez in terms of his electric arm, Venezuelan heritage, smallish but athletic frame and insidious changeup.

Still, Snell was the rare pitcher to win the POY award. That’s why this list tilts heavily toward the position players.

I mean, I’m still trying to get this prediction right, no matter how hard it is to do. That’s part of the fun, right?