Minor League Opening Day Chat
Moderator: The Baseball America staff will be on hand from noon Eastern to chat about Opening Day in the minors. Ask us anything and we’ll try to answer as best as can.
Ben Badler: Not many better dates on the calendar than the first day of the minor league season. Feels a bit strange with snow still on the ground here in Boston, but it’s great to be back at minor league parks, on the phone with scouts and getting ready for a new wave of prospect data and information to start coming in. Let’s get started.
@Jaypers413 (IL): Happy MiLB Opening Day, and thanks for the chat. Pick the lineup you think will do the most damage - Round Rock Express or Salem Red Sox? And would you consider those to be the most stacked in the minors, or someone else's?
Ben Badler: I’ll take Salem with Yoan Moncada, Andrew Benintendi and Rafael Devers, especially since I think they’re going to be together most of the season. Although I’m probably more intrigued to see Jurickson Profar on Round Rock than anyone. Hard to know what to expect from him given how much time he’s missed, but he could a huge X-Factor for them.
Dan (Miami FL): Real bummer to hear about Tyler Kolek. Which pitching prospect in their system is "the one" to watch now?
Ben Badler: There’s not much to pick from. Jarlin Garcia could fit as a back-end starter or a reliever. Edward Cabrera is the pitcher at the lower levels to keep an eye on, if you want a deeper sleeper.
Jay (Niagara): After Cody Reed's last spring training start, I saw a tweet and it illustrated his loss of velocity as he got deeper into the game. If I recall, he ended up low 90's. The tweet had a neutral tone, but I assumed this was a concern? Is this something to monitor? Should something like this be reason to pump the brakes on the hype train? Bryan Price has already said he expects to see Reed in the show this year.
Ben Badler: People waaaaaayyyyyyy overreact to spring training. These are practice games where the players are just getting ramped up for the season. Unless there’s something markedly out of the ordinary for a player, like he’s touching 98 mph after never throwing above 95 before, or some significant physical change, I put pretty much zero stock into spring training.
Proswagonist (Liberl): Best defensive catcher in the minors?
Ben Badler: Roberto Pena of the Astros can’t hit, but he does everything you want behind the plate. Excellent receiving and blocking skills, plus arm with accuracy to control the running game.
GPT (San Jose): Are you surprised at how young the Augusta roster is and that Lucius Fox got the jump to A ball? Giants haven't been so aggressive with their teenagers in the past.
Ben Badler: Fox would have been a 2015 draft pick had he stayed in high school, so he’s following a pretty typical development path. I’m more surprised with how aggressive they were with Manuel Geraldo, but he’s an exciting athlete with true shortstop tools.
Mike (MKE): What three brewer prospects improve their stock the most this season?
Ben Badler: Marcos Diplan, Michael Reed and Ramon Flores.
John (DC): Is Victor Robles a top 15 prospect for you? What's his ultimate power potential?
Ben Badler: He was just outside that range on my top 50 prospects list in the Prospect Handbook, and I certainly think he’ll jump into that group by the end of the season. Power is a tricky tool to project with him, but with his bat speed, strength projection and the way his swing works, he should be at least a 10-15 HR guy, with a chance for 15-20.
Joseph P (Denton, TX): Speaking of Profar, if you were the Rangers and fielding calls for him, what would you do? If he's reasonably healthy and given their contractual obligations to Andrus...
Ben Badler: I have no idea. I’m not sure how they could have much of an idea either. He was a phenom who torched through the minor leagues, reached MLB at age 20 and looked like a franchise shortstop, but we’ve seen him play 12 games in the last two years. He’s still 23 so I’m still hopeful he can get back to the star we expected him to be after the 2013 season, but I’m not sure anyone can predict his future with any great degree of confidence given the information available on him at this point.
Matt (VA): How soon before Moncada and Anderson Espinizoa see promotions? Espinoza said he wanted to play in Boston as an 18 yr old if I remember correctly.
Ben Badler: Moncada probably gets promoted first. If you talk to a lot of young prospects, most of them, especially on the international side, don’t really have any concept of how many years they’re going to have to spend in the minors and how many levels there are to climb through.
Scott (Saint Louis): Any thoughts on a preseason POY pick? Happy Opening day!
Ben Badler: Our 2013 and 2014 College Player of the Year picks were Kris Bryant and A.J. Reed, who went on to become our 2014 Minor League POY and and 2015 Minor League POY runner-up. My bet would be on Andrew Benintendi this year.
Brian (Atlanta): Any surprise the Braves put Albies in AA?
Ben Badler: A little bit. I think Swanson is more advanced and would have sent him to Double-A. Albies has the bat control and overall baseball IQ that he should be able to at least hold his own at that level. I do like that they split them up to get them both more everyday reps at shortstop rather than have them split time between shortstop and second base on the same team.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Have the Reds been hasty moving Cody Reed to AAA after only 13 starts in AA in 2015? Can he pass Robert Stephenson as the Reds top prospect if Stephenson doesn't get his control problems solved?
Ben Badler: He’s already mastered Double-A and I don’t think he’s going to need to spend much time in Triple-A either. I already like him more than Robert Stephenson.
Jake (Arizona): Trevor Story looks great albeit a small sample size. Are there any other Rockies' hitting prospects who should make an impact soon enough? David Dahl is an enigma & Jordan Patterson's bat seems to fly under the radar
Ben Badler: I wouldn’t count on him being a 2016 contributor, but Ryan McMahon is my favorite prospect in their system. Excellent combination of power, athleticism and defensive ability, with a swing that works well enough that I think the strikeouts will come down.
Joe (Kansas City): Which prospect (at any level) do you expect to break out? Also, who is your bounce back candidate?
Ben Badler: Pirates 3B Ke’Bryan Hayes and Rockies 2B Forrest Wall are two prospects I think are in for breakout years. If you’re looking for someone deeper under the radar, Rays OF Jesus Sanchez is someone I’m expecting big things from when he makes his U.S. debut this year. Daniel Robertson didn’t have a bad season last year for the Rays, but I think his prospect stock will bounce back big this year; I’m still more optimistic on his future than most.
Ed MoStein (The Lou): What can you tell us about Estivan Florial and does his stock rise significantly this year. What other prospect at that level should we keep an eye on?
Ben Badler: Just wrote a full scouting report on him and 19 others coming over from the DSL and VSL this year right here: https://www.baseballamerica.com/international/top-20-dslvsl-prospects-from-2015/ He doesn’t have the same bat control as Victor Robles, but it’s a huge tools-based ceiling.
Mike C (Austin, TX): What are your thoughts on Alex Jackson at this point? Huge bust or still time to figure it out?
Ben Badler: There’s still time, but the red flags are whipping and the arrows are all pointing in the wrong direction. He dropped way down my list coming into the season and the Mariners deciding to bury him in extended spring training is even more concerning.
Pablo (Saskatchewan): The Dodgers probably have one of, if not the deepest system in the minors, and with 3 draft picks in the top 36 this year, and still some time left to sign more Cubans (Lazarito?), how much do you think the system falls off after Seager, and most likely De Leon and Urias graduate to the majors?
Ben Badler: I expect they will still have a top 10 farm system next year even with graduations.
Jeff (Philly): What are the guidelines for signing guys in regards to July 2nd International signing day? In other words, does a kid signing out of the DR have a different set of rules than a kid signing out of Cuba? I ask because you always hear about Cuban guys having to wait to be declared FA's. And with Ona and Morejon and Ruiz (and I'm sure I'm forgetting a few), do those guys have to be declared FA's by the MLB by July 2nd in order to sign on July 2nd? Or does that not apply to J2 kids? If it does and they aren't declared FA's in time for July 2nd, how long would they need to wait? Thanks guys. Keep up the great work BA!
Ben Badler: When a player turns 16, he can sign on July 2, or if he turns 16 between July 3 and Aug. 31, he can sign beginning on his birthday, or any time thereafter. A player does have to have previously registered with the commissioner’s office, but at this point that’s a formality that nearly every notable player has done, with a few exceptions over the years. Cuban players are different because of the US laws governing a company’s requirements to offer employment to a Cuban national, so they have to obtain residency in another country, then wait for MLB to declare them a free agent. As for why it takes MLB so long before they actually clear Cuban players to sign, there really isn’t a good answer for that, and the commissioner’s office has very little transparency with this issue, either publicly, to the players themselves or to the teams. It’s absolutely an issue they need to address.
OT (Phlly): Hey Ben, Great international coverage. I had a question regarding the VSL Phillies. Since they are not fielding a team this year, where would those players play? Also, are the Phillies expected to be players this year in the international market given that they have the highest slot? Thanks, Keep up the great work.
Ben Badler: They’re going to have two Dominican Summer League teams instead. The Rays and Cubs will do the same, while the Tigers are going with one DSL team and two GCL teams, with one of their GCL teams essentially serving as their “advanced DSL team” in a sense. The Phillies are going to be very active internationally this year, although as of this point I don’t expect them to break their bonus pool, and they’re more likely to spread their money around rather than put most of it into one bonus like they did last year with Jhailyn Ortiz.
Dirk (New Jersey): Ronald Acuna, Luis Alexander Basabe or Estevan Florial?
Ben Badler: I’d take Acuna right now, but Florial might change my answer by August.
Corey Anderson (Philadelphia,PA): Ben will you be attending any of the Cuban National Team's games in the Cam-An League ? Who do you hope to see?
Ben Badler: Possibly, but the games are at a difficult time for me because of how much July 2 coverage we’re going to have. But I’ve already seen everyone on what’s left of their national team, and there just isn’t that much left to see. Hopefully they’ll at least fill the roster with younger players like Julio Pablo Martinez, Luis Robert, Victor Mesa, etc., but I imagine it will be more veteran guys who are good players in Cuba but are just org filler at best from an MLB team perspective.
Ben (Miami): Can Mallex Smith hit enough to handle everyday CF duties?
Ben Badler: He could, but it’s limited upside and impact if you’re counting on him to be a regular. I’d be more comfortable with him in a fourth outfielder role.
Tony (KC): Will AJ Reed and Josh Bell get over 150 AB's in the majors this year?
Ben Badler: The Pirates might be more conservative with Bell unless he forces the issue, but Reed absolutely will. He’s a strong ROY contender who should be able to mash as soon as he gets to Houston.
Alex (Nc): Alvaro Seijas a future front-line starter?
Ben Badler: It depends how much more his fastball grows, which is why it’s hard putting that label on anyone who’s still that young and far away. But for his age, it’s a great fastball/curveball combo from a pitcher who throws a lot of strikes, so it’s a pretty exciting pitcher to be able to start to mold.
Patrick (Lake Forest, CA): Cuban baseball fan here. After the barrage of defections over the last few years, who do you see as the top 5 prospects still in Cuba?
Ben Badler: I’ll take this question to let people know we almost certainly are not going to do a full Top 20 Cuban players list again this year like we did last year. As much as I enjoyed putting that together and making Baseball America the only place that was out front on all these players while they were still in Cuba, there have been so many players leaving the country (including half that list) that there isn’t enough impact talent for us to justify going 20 deep again, because I think it would just be misleading. The best player still in Cuba is Alfredo Despaigne, and given the changes between the US and Cuban governments and the possibility that Cuban players still living there might become available, I’m sure teams will be in Japan bearing down on him more closely this year. Robert, Martinez and Mesa are the best young prospects on the island to watch.
walter (Plano, texas): Thoughts on Tulsa Drillers: Great stories with Jordan Shaffer & Donovan Tate. Any chance things work out positively? What can we expect from Verdugo & Bellinger?. And finally, any chance Yusniel Diaz makes an appearance in 2016?
Ben Badler: Not counting on much from the first two, but I expect big years from Verdugo and Bellinger. The adjustments Verdugo made with his hitting mechanics and approach helped him take off in the second half last year, and I expect that to carry over this year. Bellinger’s mechanical changes and strength increase led to more power and also more strikeouts in a breakout season last year, and I think this year he finds the right balance between contact and power. Willie Calhoun is another one on that team I’m excited for; he’s the physical opposite of Bellinger, but he’s just a pure, natural hitter who does things with his barrel that you can’t teach. As for Diaz, the Dodgers have become quite aggressive in challenging their players with their assignments and promotions, so I do think he’ll be up there at some point this season.
Ben Badler: Thanks for all the questions, time for me to hand the chatting baton over to Matt Eddy.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Phillip Ervin had an OPS 64 points higher than the league average in the Florida State League last year. Given his college hitting pedigree and his good walk and contact rates as a pro, could he be in line for a breakout year in the more hitting neutral Southern League?
Matt Eddy: I wouldn’t forecast a huge breakout for Reds OF Phillip Ervin this year, but I like his skills profile and see him as a future top-of-the-order major league batter. His performance at High-A Daytona last year indicates he has speed, plate discipline and more power than he is generally given credit for. At the very least, he has power to keep pitchers honest.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Given his on again off again issues with control, are the Reds rushing Robert Stephenson into his MLB debut today?
Matt Eddy: Probably not. Teams have become increasingly aggressive with promoting talented young pitchers, and Reds RHP Robert Stephenson is one of the most talented around. Think about all the benefits a young pitcher receives in the majors: (1) the best field/mound conditions, (2) the best coaches the organization has to offer, and (3) the benefit of a larger, more consistent strike zone as called by heavily-scrutinized MLB umpires. With a wider zone, pitchers with great stuff but questionable command can thrive (or at least so theorizes Dave Cameron of FanGraphs, and I think it rings true). Or come at it from this direction: What if I told you a prospect who recorded a 5.47 ERA and 5.2 BB/9 rate at High-A in 2014 graduated to the majors in 2015 and put up a 3.22 and a 3.1? Well, it happened. His name: Lance McCullers Jr.
Proswagonist (Liberl): Does Corpus Christi have the best three starters of any minor league rotation with Francis Martes, David Paulino, and Joe Musgrove?
Matt Eddy: This is one of the stronger groups on paper, and this level of upper-level prospect depth is why the Astros are my pick to win the AL pennant.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Which happens first: Scott Schebler and Adam Duvall are bad enough that the Reds call up Jesse Winker OR Jay Bruce is traded and the Reds call up Jesse Winker?
Matt Eddy: The latter. I think Schebler will be a productive power source as a rookie. Plus he can run and take a walk. Duvall could settle into a role as part-time RH bat, or at least scare the opposing manager away from the idea of bringing in the LH specialist (assuming big league managers ever pinch-hit for batters anymore).
Dave (976): Rule 5 pick Jake Cave couldn't stick and is already back with the Yankees organization. Is he still a prospect or is this a sign that there's not enough there?
Matt Eddy: I think the biggest strike against OF Jake Cave was the makeup of the Reds roster. They’re already rolling with speedy slap-hitters like Billy Hamilton and Tyler Holt, and they have Jose Peraza waiting in the wings. A player like Cave doesn’t make enough contact and doesn’t have enough power to record a high walk rate in the majors. He’s best used as speed source and defender, which the Reds have covered.
Alex (TX): What is the scouting report on Travis Taijeron? He produced last year and again this spring. What is his ceiling from a role and statistical standpoint?
Matt Eddy: Had Taijeron not recorded one of the worst strikeout rates in the PCL last year I would be more confident that he was on a Josh Satin or Eric Campbell track, to cite recent examples of Las Vegas RH mashers who made the big leagues. Taijeron’s power is legit.
Steve (CT): With the recent influx of talent at SS in the Mets system, is there a team that is set up better than them for the next 5-6 years?
Matt Eddy: Interesting question. You could make the case that the Mets would come out ahead by trading Amed Rosario, Gavin Cecchini, Luis Carpio and Co. for one of the stud SS prospects in the game, such as Corey Seager, Orlando Arcia or J.P. Crawford, and then replace the lost depth through the draft and international market.
Corey (Philadelphia,PA): Matt, Rhy Hoskins is my pick for Eastern League MVP. What's your opinion of Hoskins ? Who do you look forward to seeing in AA this year ?
Matt Eddy: I’m definitely watching Phillies 1B Rhys Hoskins at Double-A this year. These overachiever types fascinate me. They have another potential emerging threat in the form of 2015 fourth-rounder Kyle Martin, who crushed at Low-A Lakewood after signing. I’m also watching some other more heralded prospects to see how their power plays at higher levels, including college outfielders Christin Stewart (Tigers), Harrison Bader (Cardinals) and Andrew Benintendi (Red Sox).
Greg (VA Beach): How concerned are you about Dom Smith's conditioning? Seems like it's a known issue and he had a chance to show in camp up lighter but didn't, from what I coukd tell. I realize if he rakes no one will care but are concerns about his makeup legit?
Matt Eddy: I know other organizations are concerned about 1B Dominic Smith’s work ethic, but we have seen so many unconventional body types have success in the majors that Smith’s perceived condition shouldn’t override his actual ability. If you want to forecast him for a shorter performance peak based on his body type, I think that makes sense.
Dave (976): Is Yandy Diaz being kept at AA so Cleveland can get him more reps at 3B? Or is this a sign that something went wrong between last year and this year?
Matt Eddy: Looks like a possible chain reaction from the signing of Juan Uribe. That necessitated Giovany Urshela going back to Triple-A Columbus and Diaz back to Double-A Akron. It might be more troubling if Cleveland advanced Diaz to Columbus only to have him ride the bench.
Joey D (Southington CT): Could the Braves target all college bats?
Matt Eddy: Only the Braves know for sure. The franchise has a long track record for favoring pitchers in the early rounds of the draft, but of course that was back when the club didn’t have a deep stable of pitching prospects and back when they had an actual MLB offense to support Freddie Freeman.
Danny (New York, NY): What are your thoughts on Ben Gamel (batting leadoff today) and has he passed Mason Williams and Slade Heathcott in the pecking order?
Matt Eddy: With Gamel and Williams both on the 40-man roster, it could be simply a matter of who’s playing better at the time the Yankees go looking for outfield depth.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Do you see the Reds trading or benching Zack Cozart to make room for Jose Peraza, or will Billy Hamilton's continued hitting woes force Peraza into CF despite it being lower of the defensive spectrum?
Matt Eddy: Cozart is such a fine glove that the Reds might suffer in the exchange if they install Peraza at shortstop, even though he’s probably a better hitter than Cozart. That combined with Hamilton’s offensive showing thus far could make CF the best bet for Peraza.
DF (Wilmington, NC): BA has Dansby Swanson 17 and Brendan Rodgers 40 on your top 100. I believe you consider Swanson the Braves' SS of the future over Albies, so is the difference between Swanson/Rodgers that of a higher floor for Swanson, higher confidence that he'll remain at SS, or do you not even consider Rodgers' ceiling higher?
Matt Eddy: We received poor reports about Brendan Rodgers’ work ethic at Rookie-level Grand Junction, which is reflected in his lower-than-expected ranking in the Top 100. We hope we are proven wrong and too reactionary. Please note that two of our staff top 50s in the Prospect Handbook ranked Rodgers ahead of Swanson, so it’s by no means a unanimous position. I tend to hew close to our pre-draft rankings until it becomes obvious that a player is better or worse than expected. We haven’t reached that point with 2015 draftees.
Jonathan (Atlanta): Were you surprised that Giolito started in AA? Do you expect him to be there most of the season or do you think he'll be in AAA soon? (All done with the assumption he's in DC by late July. Maybe that's the wrong assumption.)
Matt Eddy: Nationals RHP Lucas Giolito will be up this year, so in some ways his opening assignment is irrelevant, so long as he’s healthy. Maybe the Nationals are wary of opening him at Triple-A because Syracuse plays in the Northern Division, which might see colder weather overall than Double-A Harrisburg. Maybe.
Mick (Chicago): Has the KBO surpassed the NPB in providing baseball talent to MLB? There hasn't been any position players from Japan lately or on the horizon. Unless Otani comes as an outfielder. Are there any other possibilities in the near future?
Matt Eddy: I’m interested to see how the new wave of KBO imports performs, but for data points all we really have are the Pirates’ Jung Ho Kang in 2015 and the Dodgers’ Hyun Jin Ryu in 2014. Hardly seems like enough evidence to outweigh the successes of recent NPB transfers such as Yu Darvish, Masahiro Tanaka, Hisashi Iwakuma, Koji Uehara and Nori Aoki.
Josh Norris: Hello, friends. Josh Norris here to take the baton from Matt Eddy. Let us chat.
Frankie (atlanta): Where's Kolby Allard? I don't see him assigned anywhere yet. Is his back injury still bothering him?
Josh Norris: Allard is still in extended spring training. He should arrive in late-April or early May to the Rome Braves.
Proswagonist (Liberl): Which player(s) making their full season debut are you most excited to see?
Josh Norris: Well it’s not his full-season debut proper, but Anderson Espinoza is the player I’m most excited to see, period. I got to watch him last year in the Gulf Coast League and haven’t stopped talking about him since. He’s got special written all over him in Trump-esque gold Sharpie.
Adam (Atlanta): Is it possible Mike Soroka could be in Mississippi by mid-season? Seems like he's got ridiculous stuff.
Josh Norris: I would say no. This is his first taste of full-season ball and he came out of high school, so I can’t imagine him moving anywhere near that fast.
Matt (VA): Where does Wilkerman Garcia start when he leaves extended spring training?
Josh Norris: He’s hurt right now with a shoulder injury. Once that heals I’d bet they start in extended spring training and then move him to either short-season Staten Island or Pulaski. He’s very talented, but Kyle Holder and Hoy Park are both at low Class A Charleston already.
Jack (North carolina): Biggest jumpers in rankings, for pitchers, after this season?
Josh Norris: One guy who jumps to mind is Dylan Cease. Once he gets to low Class A and shows what he can do, he has the potential to dominate and move into the Top 100.
Alex Q (Bay Area): California league rosters appear to be pretty light this year. Who are the three players in that league with biggest upside?
Josh Norris: I’m a big fan of the Padres Javier Guerra, who will be with the Lake Elsinore team. Slugger Chris Shaw has a chance to mash with San Jose, and Jesus Tinoco with Modesto has an electric arm.
Dave (976): The Reading Fightin Phils roster is obviously stacked this year and will be fun to watch. Who is the pitcher with the most upside to keep an eye on there? Ricardo Pinto?
Josh Norris: Yeah, Nick Pivetta and Pinto are probably the two best starter prospects there. If he ever figures out control/command Tom Windle could be an effective lefty reliever.
Eric (Wisconsin): Any word on what the starting lineup for the Timber Rattlers is to start out the year? Are a lot of those high upside guys in the lineup or are some staying in extended ST, headed for more rookie ball?
Josh Norris: I don’t know what the lineup will look like, but they have some very talented young prospects in Monte Harrison, Isan Diaz and Jacob Gatewood. Miguel Diaz can touch 100 in the rotation, and Marcos Diplan is sneaky good too.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): If Eric Jagielo can stay healthy and prove that he can stick at 3B, could you see him making a jump into the top 100 prospects this year?
Josh Norris: First, I do not believe he can stick at third base. Reports going back two years ago were bearish on that, and he’s dealt with knee injuries since then, which can only hamper his mobility there. I don’t expect to see him in the Top 100.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Given his increased stuff since he was drafted and elite command and control, could Tyler Mahle be a dark horse minor league player of the year candidate playing in the extremely pitcher friendly Florida State League?
Josh Norris: I really doubt it. That’s a very dark horse.
@Jaypers413 (IL): Are there any real surprises in terms of prospect assignments, in your opinion? If so, who are your top 3?
Josh Norris: Well, Alex Jackson staying in extended spring training was certainly a surprise. He’s performed poorly, for sure, but it’s literally an unprecedented move for someone of his draft pedigree.
Chaquita banana (Florida): Do you use milbtv? Thinking about doing it and need to be pushed off the edge one way or another.
Josh Norris: I actually don’t use MiLB.tv, if only because I’m usually at a game anyway. Our JJ Cooper uses it frequently, however, and he’s a big fan. I’d make that purchase it you can afford to do so.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Will whomever the Reds draft at #2 overall in June more than likely be their #1 prospect (Groome/Pint/Senzel/Rutherford)?
Josh Norris: Reds expert JJ Cooper says yes. If Cody Reed is still eligible, he might top hypothetical No. 2.
Erik (Portland, Maine): I don't see Sam Travis on any Top-100 lists but he seems like he has an impact bat. Can you see him in the ML in 2016 and what type of player do you see him as? Thanks!
Josh Norris: I don’t see where he’d fit with the Red Sox in 2016. Travis Shaw won the third base job, and Hanley Ramirez has first base (what a weird sentence). Travis needs more seasoning in any case.
Andrew Brotherton (Atlanta, GA): The Yankees system leans so heavily position players, are there a few arms you see that could tilt it the other way.
Josh Norris: James Kaprielian is obviously their highest-impact arm, and RHP Domingo Acevedo could be a power reliever if he fails as a starter. Ian Clarkin needs a healthy year, but he could run up the rankings if he reestablishes himself.
Alex (Rome): The Rome Braves seem loaded. Are they the second most talented minor league team behind the Benintendi, Moncada, etc roster?
Josh Norris: We actually just ran the numbers as far as Top 100 players on rosters is concerned, and the leaders might surprise you: The Double-A Corpus Christi Hooks have four Top 100 guys in Francis Martes, Alex Bregman, Joe Musgrove and David Paulino. Salem still ranks as our top roster, but CC is loaded too.
Charlie (NYC): Who are two players from the Mets system that will have A) the best year and B) the most surprising year (positively or negatively)?
Josh Norris: I think will Dom Smith will have a huge year. I absolutely loved him in the Arizona Fall League, and their Double-A manager gushed about Amed Rosario in the brief time he had with him last year too.
Drew (Nc): Any chance of junior Fernandez making a big jump this year?
Josh Norris: A Cardinals righty who throws 100 mph? Yeah, he could make a big jump for sure.
Greggy J (Here): What are the best promotions coming up this season? I mean like bring your alligator to the park, etc
Josh Norris: I love the new Choctaw River that’s going to debut in Frisco this year. That looks amazing. The only way I’d like it more is if they stocked with tropical fish or something. The continued Fresno Taco Tuesdays is excellent. Brooklyn has an awesome two-sided Wilmer Flores bobblehead coming out, and Scranton is giving away a Greg Bird bobblehead that has him hatching from an egg (like a bird)
Dave (976): Rome has one of the best rotations I've ever seen in A-ball before. Toussaint, Soroka, Fried, Ricardo Sanchez. I know their all a ways off, but will there be room for all of them in Atlanta someday?
Josh Norris: Not to cast doubts on any of their futures individually, but it is highly unlikely that all four of those guys end up in Atlanta together. That’s just simply how prospects will work. Some will succeed. Many, many others will fail for one reason or another.
Matt (Florida): Ever seen a more prospect-devoid roster than this year's Jacksonville Suns?
Josh Norris: There are some particularly putrid Triple-A lineups out there, but the Marlins’ system as a whole is pretty barren. Tyler Kolek ranked as the system’s best prospect and he just had Tommy John surgery. I think their best roster is at low Class A Greensboro, where two Top 10 prospects: Josh Naylor and Isael Soto reside.
Philip (San Diego): Padres system is obviously shallow on depth right now, who is an off the radar guy you can see taking a leap forward outside there top 3?
Josh Norris: Enyel De Los Santos, whom they acquired from the Mariners, showed big-time arm strength this spring.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Are you surprised Keury Mella is back in High A Daytona, or is it understandable given his control issues in 2015 and the Reds strong pitching depth in AA?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Hi folks, Vince here for Josh. John Manuel is coming up soon. I handled the Giants for the midseason update in 2014 and really liked Mella from then. But that said, I am not surprised, for the reasons you stated. One scout I spoke to said Mella is probably a reliever long term and he’s still young, so there’s no reason for urgency.
Erik (Maine): Will Francis Martes be pitching in the Astros rotation in 2016? He's only 20 y/o but industry experts seem to think he's close to reaching the ML. And what type of impact do you see him making short and long term?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: As polished and advanced as Martes is, that’s a bit quick, especially considering there are others ahead of him on depth chart. Still, it wouldn’t be surprising to see him in the majors near the back end of the 2016 season.
Danny (New York, NY): Anyone on the Yankees farm that resembles the next Mitchell/Phelps? Back-end starter who winds up being valuable reliever/spot starter.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Right now, it’s Luis Cessa, the pitcher acquired from the Tigers in the Justin Wilson trade. The other pitcher acquired in that deal was Chad Green. Green doesn’t have the stuff of Cessa but he certainly fits the profile of a pitcher such as Phelps, or Adam Warren. Cessa right now is in the majors because of Mitchell’s injury and Aroldis Chapman’s suspension, but I think the Yankees would eventually like to return him to Triple-A to stretch him out as a starter.
Deew (Ny): do you see junior Fernandez making a big jump into top 100 by end of season? His arm strength has to be intriguing, right?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: He could. Yes, his arm strength is very intriguing. In fact, I am planning to see him—weather permitting—on Sunday against Burlington.
Mike (Vermont): Will Dilson Herrera = Pedroia Light?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Honestly, the Mets wish for that good an outcome. I like Herrera. He has good bat control and more power than you’d think. But Pedroia’s career OPS plus is 115, with 127 and 131 in consecutive seasons. No way Herrera’s that good.
Tablejumper (Milwaukee): With his performance is the DSL and spring training did Steven Moya restore his prospect status? Will he arrive in The D this summer?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Somewhat. I will say he gave the Tigers something to think about. It came down to them wanting more versatility with Mike Aviles, who plays the infield and outfield. But I do think they remain intrigued by his crazy power, understanding it comes with lots of whiffs.
Alex (Ohio): Any chance of cardinals trading for a SS? Sosa and Diaz don't seem to be long term answers
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Well Sosa is far from the majors, so it’s too soon to know whether he is—or isnt’t—a long-term answer. Aledmys Diaz is getting a shot for now with Ruben Tejada hurt. Diaz definitely rebuilt his stock in the eyes of the Cardinals, who now see him as at least a decent stopgap with Peralta hurt.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Any concerns about Robert Stephenson sitting at 91-93 today with trouble locating his offspeed pitches, or is it safer to chalk this one up to it being 40°, cold, wet, and early in the year?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes. I think you have to factor in the cold and it being early. Like anything else, baseball performance is influenced by weather conditions.
Dave (976): It seems like there is an emphasis on catcher-defense in the minors. Are there any bat-first catching prospects that will actually probably maybe stick behind the plate in the big leagues eventually maybe?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Oh sure. Jacob Nottingham, traded to the Brewers in the Khris Davis deal, is a bat-first guy. He went from the Astros to the A’s last July for Scott Kazmir and was seemingly in the perfect organization for a guy known for the stick first. But he needs work behind the plate.
Boogy (Virginia): Any updates on the health of Austin Meadows? What do you see him doing this year?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Meadows is out until mid-May at the earliest after having surgery to repair an orbital fracture. He’s expected to move to Double-A Altoona, probably after some extended spring to shake off the rust. He had such a good year in 2015 in the usually difficult-to-hit FSL, it’ll be fun to see him in the Eastern League, but eye injuries can be tough to shake quickly.
Henry (Savannah): It seems like Allard, Riley, Soroka and Herbert get most of the talk from the Braves' draft class last year. Who's another player from that group who could break out?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Chase Johnson-Mullins, maybe just because you can’t miss him. Dude is 6-foot-8, 270 pounds. He had interesting results last season, keeping the ball on the ground while striking out 7.4 batters per nine. However, he also walked almost 6 batters per nine. The big guy is something of an enigma because he hasn’t pitched much since high school, but his upside is significant if he’s able to put it all together.
Connor (Wallingford, CT): Who's up first - Giolito or Urias? And who has the better rookie campaign?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: It’ll be close. Both will likely be in the majors this season, even as their parent clubs try to pump the brakes. Both teams are expected to contend, but the Dodgers have the rotation that might be most in need of help. Just for that reason, I might pick Urias. But I think Giolito is the one who’d succeed quicker, just because he’s more mature physically.
Nick (North Carolina): What is a reasonable expectation for Lucious Fox in Augusta? What is his ceiling?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: You’re assuming he gets to Augusta. Really tough to peg him because some scouts see him at short, second or even center field. He has a line-drive oriented swing, but doesn’t repeat it well, and he’s thin and unlikely to have much power, even as he matures. He’s got a top-of-the-order profile.
Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Given the Reds impressive pitching depth in the upper minors, will Amir Garrett develop his changeup enough to break into the rotation, or is he more likely to be a late inning reliever?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: That’s the magic bullet, obviously. He has the kind of repertoire now that’s conducive to a late-inning reliever, and with the Reds’ starting depth, he could end up there. No need to make that decision just yet. The Reds will allow him to continue to develop and try to hone the change of pace.
Proswagonist (Liberl): Pick a position player and pitcher for biggest riser in the rankings this year.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Going to go with a couple of #personalcheeseballs here. I have been an admirer of Colin Moran for a time. Love the swing and the balance and I know the Astros believe there’s more in the tank there, power-wise. I know spring training stats mean nothing, but man the power showed up big time and the hits weren’t soft. As for pitchers, I love Antonio Senzatela (In fact, I wrote about him today: https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/senzatela-could-be-quick-riser-for-rockies/#2jqpe7OSRlXH8Y2k.97) He’s got poise, a great mound presence and a fastball up to 98. If the secondary stuff continues to come, he’ll be in the top 50 a year from now.
Alex (Bronx): Happy MiLB Opening Day! Any news on the Wilkerman Garcia shoulder injury? Read about it online a few weeks ago, but can't find an update anywhere. Hoping it's nothing serious. Was really excited to follow him this year.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Garcia dealt with a sore right shoulder all spring, it was reported, and there is no timetable for his return. It’s a bummer after a very solid first season that had him ranked No. 9 overall in the system.
Warren (Texas): Every year some players rejuvenate their prospect status after trending downwards. Any predictions as to who will have a bounce back year? Thoughts on my prediction of Steven Moya to bounce back? Thanks for the chat!
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Yes, Moya has a chance to do that. I would have said Kolek before the Tommy John surgery. Another Tigers outfielder, Derek Hill, I think has more than he’s shown.
Alin (Canada): I have read great things about Austin Smith's growth since being drafted. Do you have any updates on his progress?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: I like Smith. I handled the Padres for the Handbook and was struck by how ebullient the scouting reports were despite his poor pro debut. He’s a big guy and yet still has some projectability and scouts believe there’s more to his fastball than the 95 he flashed last year. He has clean arm action, a sound delivery and a decent three-pitch mix. But he’s far away.
Jack (Cali): Can Yasiel Sierra make an impact in the rotation for the Dodgers?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: This year, probably not. Long-term? Not sure either. He has some mechanical issues to iron out. As Andrew Friedman intimated, velocity’s not everything. Sierra throws hard, but the Dodgers will play it slow with him, getting him acclimated to the United States and structured ball.
Erik (Maine): Thanks for the chat. Sam Travis debut 2016 and everyday 1B in 2017? He seems like a real impact bat.
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Sure, it’s possible he debuts this season. He opened the eyes of John Farrell in spring training. But the Red Sox have a long-term commitment to Hanley Ramirez and really like Travis Shaw as well. It might be more likely that Sam Travis is your Opening Day third baseman in 2017.
Proswagonist (Liberl): Which team has the best rotation, bullpen, infield, and outfield in the minors?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: We’ll have that tomorrow in our new Topical Ten feature. Stay tuned at baseballamerica.com
WBG (Philippines): What do you think of the projection for Phil Bickford this season?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Not sure what you mean about his projection, but the Giants have high hopes for Bickford after a sterling 2015. He’ll head to Augusta, where he’ll continue to develop as a starter.
Willie (NYC): Which Yankee Farm Club has the most prospects, What year do you think the international draft starts
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: S/WB has Judge, Refsnyder, Gamel, Sanchez, but the RiverDogs have some really intriguing guys. College guys like Brody Koerner, James Reeves, Alex Robinett, Josh Rogers and Kyle Holder, international dudes such as Hoy Jun Park and Acevedo. A lefty bat like Connor Spencer, not a power guy, but he hits. CBA expires in December, but commissioner Manfred has called an international draft for a new CBA an “ambitious goal” meaning it’s not happening in the next 3-5 years.
Dave (976): Is there a surefire closer in the minors that could be ready for 2017?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: That’s a difficult question because big league closers aren’t usually built in the minors. That said, a guy such as Joe Jimenez or Nick Burdi could be it, just because that fit that prototypical mold.
Aaron (Duncanville, TX): Who do you expect to make the biggest impact for the Rangers this season out of Gallo, Brinson, Mazara and why?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: It really depends on injuries and health of players such as Ian Desmond and Adrian Beltre. If Desmond underperforms, I could see the Rangers pulling the plug for Mazara, an advanced bat who I’m surprised the Rangers didn’t allow to win the job this year. He’s got a smooth swing, power and feel to hit. I think Brinson’s another year away. If Beltre were to get hurt, Gallo could step in and the Rangers would live with the strikeouts for the power.
Jackson (Nc): Any way cardinals could trade for a top 100 caliber SS? Peralta old and I'm not sure Diaz or Sosa are future core players
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Way too soon to say that, especially about Sosa.
PT (IBC): Expected to see Stone Garrett in Greensboro. Do you know where he'll start the year?
Vincent Lara-Cinisomo: Stone’s real first name, by the way, is Gregory. But his dad was Rock, so he is Stone. Neat, huh? Yes, I expected Garrett would start at Greensboro as well, but he’s beginning the year at extended spring. There’s no injury I am aware of.
John Manuel: Hey, I think I’ll wrap things up for us today with a half-hour or so of questions. #blessed
Ryan (Georgia): Where does the Rome Braves roster (Riley, Acuna, Herbert, Touki, Ricardo Sanchez, Fried, Soroka, etc) rank among the most talented rosters in the minors?
John Manuel: JJ cranked out a Topical 10 today that will run tomorrow ranking the minors’ “superteams.” Rome is in there, and don’t forget, others could join them later, such as Kolby Allard, expected to pitch there in the first half this year. He’s their No. 3 prospect, so that’s a nice reinforcement and another potentially exceptional LHP to go with Fried and Sanchez.
Joey D (Southington CT): What are the chances that the Braves goes either Senzel or Rutherford with pick 3? Also at pick 40 and 44 will they take a look a Jacob Heyward or Will Craig? Thanks.
John Manuel: Joey, it’s too early to try to map out picks 40 & 44, but obviously that’s going to depend on how much the Braves spend at 3, and that will be a factor in whom they draft. Honestly, I am starting to wonder if Senzel will be there at 3; he is a nice fit for the Reds at 2. With the spate of draft picks having TJ … I mean, Aiken, Buehler, Kirby & Matuella are all in Arizona rehabbing right now. Aiken & Kolek from ’14 draft … I know the Braves haven’t drafted a college bat in the first round since 1991, but if Senzel is there at 3, I’d go for him. I think all those pitching injuries help Rutherford too, who has performed but is old for the class. It seemed like he was losing some draft helium but Pat Gillick wasn’t coming to NHSI for the barbecue here in NC. He was here to do due diligence on Rutherford for the No. 1 pick, so I think he’s in that mix at 3 for the right price.
Joseph (Denton, TX): Outside of Martin Perez, why have the Rangers had trouble developing young arms? Tangentially, what are you hearing on Luis Ortiz's development regarding keeping his body (weight) in check?
John Manuel: Well, the Rangers have developed some arms over the years, especially compared to their history — Derek Holland, Chi Chi Rodriguez (who is one of the better pitchers drafted from the ’13 draft in retrospect), Perez … do they get credit for Tanner Roark? Kyle Hendricks? How about back in the day with DVD? Danks & Volquez have had long successful careers. I think they’ve done fairly well, and don’t forget, for the most part they have drafted lower than most teams because they have been contenders. The one year they drafted high, they went heavy on pitchers, including Dillon Tate No. 4 overall. What I have been told is Ortiz stuck to his offseason plan, and he’s headed to high Class A this year. That wouldn’t have happened at his age if he had not earned it. I’m a fan.
TJ (Miami): Why does Miami have such an issue with it's minor league system? They put guys on the wrong assignments(NO 25 yr old should be in Low A Ball) and they are NOT aggressive with the younger guys(Guys spend 2 or 3 year in Rookie Ball) . Is there a reason OR??
John Manuel: The Marlins are aware of their player-development issues, and changed their entire personnel in the offseason, bringing Marc DelPiano back to make him farm director, and adding Jim Benedict from the Pirates to be their pitching guru. The Marlins have had some huge hits in scouting (Stanton, Yelich, Fernandez), but they’ve had too many high-profile misses. I still don’t get why they took Kolek over Carlos Rodon in 2014, and it’s easy to say that now, but I said it then. Carlos was born in Miami, is Cuban-American and wanted to play in Miami. That choice might hurt for a while.
Ryan (San Diego): With 6 picks in the top 85 and bonus pool wiggle room to manipulate for Preller. Is this a talented enough draft to find impact talent throughout those selections.
John Manuel: Good draft for extra picks because it is better for depth than for star-power at the top.
Nick C (NJ): What 3 Mets prospects do you see making biggest jumps this season?
John Manuel: I’ll be interested to see Becerra now that he’s gone through the Rule 5 unselected. He’s toolsy, physical, he’s got power potential, he makes decent contact … I think he could blossom, even in the FSL. I’m in on Milton Ramos as a middle-infielder to watch, and it’s a good sign to see him make the full-season Columbia low A roster. Last, I like Pat Mazeika’s bat. Not sure how he’ll catch, but the guy can hit, and I think he controls the K zone enough to make a 2016 impact in A-ball.
Corey (Philadelphia,PA): Who are your favorite low level catching prospects ?
John Manuel: It’s not a real deep spot in the minors right now. I can see some high draft guys topping this list, such as Tyler Stephenson, Lucas Herbert, the Nats’ Jakson Reetz, Boston’s Austin Rei, the Angels’ Taylor Ward, along with Francisco Mejia, if low A can count as low-level.
Jon (FL): It looks like Jake Bauers has moved to the OF. Do you think he can handle it defensively and what does that do for his upside?
John Manuel: That’s one reason we like Bauers so much compared to some other 1B-only prospects. He can handle left, he makes contact, he’s got a feel for the barrel, improved power … there’s a lot to like with Bauers. He might just be 5s & 6s on the scouting card, no 7s, but he’s a high-floor player who raised his chances of being an everyday player by showing he could handle left field.
Raul (Tucson, Az.): I'm hearing that Bryan Hudson has been really dealing for the Cubs in spring training. I know he's still young, but do you think this big dude makes it to full season ball this year?
John Manuel: I do expect Hudson to have a shot at earning full-season time this year. He’s going to make some young hitters look silly with his curveball. But long-term, it’s about commanding the fastball and showing the body control to repeat his delivery for 150-200 innings per year. This year really is just about the process for him. The Cubs handled Sands & Steele carefully last year, sending them to the Northwest League, and I’d expect that to be Hudson’s starting point.
Bill (Tampa): How do you think brett phillips will do this year in double a? When can we expect to see him make his debut?
John Manuel: Just want to see the power play outside of Lancaster; he hit 1 HR last year in Double-A. I really liked Phillips out of high school back in 2012 and he’s lived up to expectations ever since. I think that will happen if he tightens up his strike-zone discipline this year, and I would expect him to get off to a fast start, since he already has some Double-A experience.
John Manuel: The games have started and I need to get out of the office, so I’m going to shut this chat down 6.5 hours after Ben started it. Hope you all enjoyed it—now get to a ballpark and enjoy MiLB Opening Day!
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