Projected Field Of 64 (April 27)

PROJECTED FIELD OF 64
Gainesville, FL	Lafayette, LA
1. (1) Florida^*	1. Louisiana-Lafayette^*
2. South Alabama	2. Kentucky
3. Clemson	3. Southeastern Louisiana*
4. Fairfield*	4. Bryant*
Coral Gables, FL	Hattiesburg, MS
1. (2) Miami^*	1. Southern Mississippi^*
2. Florida Atlantic	2. Virginia
3. Alabama	3. Brigham Young
4. Binghamton*	4. Jacksonville*
Columbia, SC	Minneapolis
1. (3) South Carolina^	1. Minnesota^*
2. UNC Wilmington*	2. Oregon State
3. North Carolina	3. Notre Dame
4. Princeton*	4. Kent State*
Tallahassee, FL	Fort Worth, TX
1. (4) Florida State^	1. Texas Christian^
2. Michigan	2. Washington*
3. Gonzaga	3. Creighton*
4. Florida A&M*	4. Seattle*
College Station, TX	Houston
1. (5) Texas A&M^	1. Rice^
2. Oklahoma State	2. Louisiana State
3. Lamar	3. Cal State Fullerton*
4. Navy*	4. New Mexico*
Lubbock, TX	Oxford, MS
1. (6) Texas Tech^*	1. Mississippi^
2. Arizona	2. UC Santa Barbara
3. Dallas Baptist*	3. Michigan State
4. Oral Roberts*	4. Southeast Missouri State*
Louisville, KY	Starkville, MS
1. (7) Louisville^	1. Mississippi State^
2. Tulane	2. Georgia Tech
3. California	3. Saint Mary’s*
4. Wright State*	4. Alabama State*
Conway, SC	Raleigh, NC
1. (8) Coastal Carolina^*	1. North Carolina State^
2. Vanderbilt	2. East Carolina*
3. Wake Forest	3. College of Charleston
4. Virginia Commonwealth*	4. UNC Greensboro*
*-Automatic bid; ^-Regional host

Last Four In: Wake Forest, Gonzaga, Michigan State, Notre Dame
First Four Out: Maryland, Georgia, Duke, Pittsburgh
Next Four Out: Tennessee, High Point, Long Beach State, Boston College

Bids By Conference
10: ACC
9: SEC
4: Pac-12
3: Big Ten, Big 12, Conference USA, West Coast
2: American, Big West, Colonial, Southland, Sun Belt
1: A-10, A-Sun, America East, Big East, Big South, Horizon, Ivy, MAAC, MAC, MEAC, Mountain West, Missouri Valley, Northeast, Ohio Valley, Patriot, Southern, Summit, SWAC, WAC

New Hosts: Mississippi, Minnesota
New Auto Bid: Jacksonville (A-Sun)
New At-Large Bids: Gonzaga, Notre Dame, Wake Forest
Dropping Out: Houston, Long Beach State, Maryland

• No conference has ever produced four national seeds in a season, but with the top eight teams in the RPI all coming from the Atlantic Coast and Southeastern conferences, it’s a distinct possibility that happens in 2016. However, while the RPI is a starting point for assessing a team’s national seed chances, it’s not the be all, end all. Recall that a year ago, Louisville and Illinois were granted national seeds with the Nos. 12 and 13 RPIs, respectively, at selection time. The big reason why? They won their conferences in dominant fashion. As important as the RPI is, we do believe the committee would only give a fourth-place team a national seed if there are truly no viable alternatives.

That little preamble brings us to Big South leader Coastal Carolina. The Chanticleers are up to No. 10 in the RPI after taking two of three from High Point, the Big South’s second-place team, and they’ve dominated the conference to the tune of a 13-2 record with three series to go. That’s what a national seed candidate from a non-power league needs to do. Coastal also has a huge opportunity this weekend when it plays a non-conference road series at Georgia Tech, the No. 22 RPI team. Coastal’s already a solid 7-4 on the road, but a series win in Atlanta would be a major boost—the committee wants to see teams challenge themselves and play well away from home.

Coastal’s case isn’t without issues. They’re just 5-5 against the top 50 as of now and lost head-to-head games against both North Carolina State and Mississippi, two of their competitors as potential fourth national seeds from the ACC and SEC. This puts all the more onus on the Georgia Tech series, though it would also help Coastal if No. 53 College of Charleston, a team it’s beaten twice, can climb back into the top 50. We’d have to reconsider if Coastal loses to Georgia Tech, but if it does win that one and takes cares of business in the Big South, the Chants look like a better bet to get a top-eight seed rather than a fourth ACC or SEC team.

• With both Texas Christian and Texas Tech losing series last weekend, we’re more doubtful that both can get national seeds out of the Big 12. Second-place TCU was the team we took out to make room for Coastal. The Horned Frogs’ RPI is down at No. 19, outside national seed territory, though Tech isn’t in the ideal range either at No. 16. Still, they’re both close enough that a strong finish should get them where they need to be, and again, the committee would be more likely to reward the Big 12’s regular-season champion instead of a fourth ACC or SEC team. The Frogs and Red Raiders play each other this weekend, a series that could well decide the Big 12 race and with it who gets to be a national seed, provided the winner doesn’t drop off down the stretch. Tech has a two-game lead right now at 12-3, with TCU at 10-5.

• The race to be the SEC’s fifth regional host is incredibly tight. That’s what happens when you’ve got a five-way tie for fourth place in the league, with four of those teams in the top 20 of the RPI—Ole Miss, LSU, Mississippi State and Vanderbilt. Kentucky is the other tied team but is down at No. 37 in the RPI. Although Mississippi State doesn’t have the best RPI of the group at No. 12, the Bulldogs are arguably in the best shape of all of them considering they’ve won head-to-head series against each of LSU, Ole Miss and Vandy, not to mention their series win at Florida. They also have a manageable—by SEC standards—schedule the rest of the way, facing Alabama and Auburn on the road and Missouri and Arkansas at home.

That leaves us deciding between Ole Miss, LSU and Vandy. At least for this week, we’re going with the Rebels. Ole Miss has the strongest RPI at No. 7 and, with all the teams tied in the conference, its non-conference resume is the other separator with a series win against Louisville and the aforementioned win against Coastal. Vanderbilt, meanwhile, suddenly has an uphill battle to host after losing a series to Tennessee last weekend. The Commodores, No. 15 in the RPI, have already lost head-to-head against both LSU and Mississippi State—they don’t play Ole Miss—and still have to make road trips to both Florida and Texas A&M. LSU and Ole Miss face off this weekend in Oxford, another series that could swing the pendulum.

• With the dearth of hosting candidates in the West, the door is open for either Minnesota or Michigan to land a hosting spot out of the Big Ten. Right now, we’ll give the edge to the Gophers. Minnesota beat Michigan head-to-head and is a game ahead in the Big Ten standings at 9-2 vs. Michigan’s 8-3. Minnesota didn’t help its cause by losing a midweek game to North Dakota State on Tuesday, which dropped its RPI seven spots from No. 23 to No. 30, leaving them behind No. 25 Michigan. This would be problematic if the season ended today, but for the time being will give the Gophers the benefit of the doubt that they can get their RPI back into at least the low 20s.

The other question will be whether the Gophers have enough quality wins. As of now, their two wins against Michigan are their only top 50 wins—they need to root for Maryland to get back into the top 50—and they have no more top-50 opponents left on the schedule. They even only have three games left against top 100 teams—this weekend’s set at Illinois—which means they have little margin for error to improve their RPI. Michigan, by comparison, has a much more RPI-friendly schedule with all four of its remaining series against top 100 teams—granted that one of those opponents, Ohio State, is barely in the top 100 at No. 99. If the standings stay in the order they are but Minnesota can’t keep its RPI strong enough, then it’s more likely neither would host than a second-place Michigan team gets a bid over a team it both lost to and finished behind, regardless of its own RPI.

• The bottom of the bubble doesn’t present many appealing options right now. We ended up bringing in three teams this week—Gonzaga, Notre Dame and Wake Forest, the latter two elevating the ACC to a 10-bid league, the most of any conference. The Demon Deacons were a fairly obvious choice, given their positive momentum after winning back-to-back series against Florida State and North Carolina. The Deacs’ inability to win on the road—they’ve yet to win a weekend series away from Winston-Salem—would undoubtedly be an issue for the committee, but right now they’ve got enough to overcome it. They have the marquee series win against FSU and have climbed to No. 31 in the RPI and seventh place in the strong ACC.

Notre Dame was a more complicated decision, coming down to the Irish vs. Maryland for the final spot. There’s nothing especially loud about Notre Dame’s resume—it’s 7-11 against the top 50 and its best series win is taking two of three at home against Wake. And yes, the Irish just got swept by FSU in Tallahassee last weekend. However, the Irish are a respectable No. 38 in the RPI and in eighth place in the conference at 9-10. They’re also 16-1 against teams not named Florida State or Miami since March 22, including the Wake series win and midweek wins against Indiana, Michigan and Michigan State—they’re taking care of business against the teams in their weight class, something Maryland has struggled with.

Maryland has a couple quality non-conference series wins against Bryant and Cal State Fullerton, two teams leading their conferences, to go along with a nice 15-11 top 100 record. But at the same time Notre Dame’s been heating up, the Terps have lost three of their last five series, including ones to fellow bubble contender High Point and mid-pack Big Ten foe Iowa. They also failed to sweep a home series against the Big Ten’s worst team, Purdue, having to settle for taking two of three against the No. 263 RPI team. All four of Maryland’s remaining series are against top 100 teams, so the opportunities will be there to play its way back in, but it’s got to show more consistency.

• Gonzaga’s No. 52 RPI is troublesome, but it has a couple of selling points in its being in a virtual tie for first place in the West Coast Conference—the Zags are 12-6 while BYU and Saint Mary’s are both 10-5—and its stout 16-11 record in road/neutral games. Right now, we’ve got all three WCC leaders in the field, though all are firmly in bubble territory, with BYU No. 47 in the RPI, SMC at 51 and Gonzaga 52. The Gaels are probably in the best shape, given that they’ve already won their head-to-head series against both BYU and Gonzaga and they own the most top 100 wins with nine. Gonzaga has just four top 100 wins, but they’ll go head-to-head with BYU this weekend in Provo. While the winner can’t exactly breathe easy, the loser will be in real jeopardy.