Uncertainty Reigns With Draft Just Three Weeks Away

The stretch run of the 2016 draft is almost here.

The last pieces of the puzzle will start falling into place over the final weeks of May, as scouts sit on college conference tournaments, and into June as area scouts start assessing signability. General managers and scouting directors can talk pre-draft parameters with top picks to see who can fit under whose signing bonus caps.

Meetings will be held; draft boards will be built, blown up and built again. Clubs will have to have figured out who will be there when they pick and be ready to scramble.

“We don’t always know who will be there when we pick the day of the draft,” one scouting director said. “Heck, last year, we had no idea two or three guys were going to be available when we picked; we didn’t know until two or three minutes before we picked who we were going to take.”

The uncertainty is real again this year, as four clubs stand out for having large signing bonus pools and multiple picks that could help them outmaneuver others come June 9.

The Reds have the largest bonus pool at just shy of $14 million; they also select No. 2 overall, tied for the highest pick in franchise history (1983, when they took Kurt Stillwell). They also pick again at No. 35 in the supplemental round and 43rd, the second pick of the second round.

The Braves pick third and not again until the 40th pick, though they have tried (in vain to this point) to move up by trading for one of the compensatory picks from Nos. 35-39. Their pool, just shy of $12.4 million, could allow them to be aggressive if they aren’t blocked by teams such as the Padres and Cardinals. St. Louis has three first-round picks, all clustered at 23rd, 33rd and 34th overall, with a pool just over $9 million.

San Diego has the third-largest pool (just higher than $12.7 million) as well as three first-round picks at Nos. 8, 24 and 25 overall, and scouts from other clubs report the Padres turning out evaluators in force for prep hitters, a fertile part of the 2016 class. The college class, especially the college pitchers and middle-of-the-diamond players, is softer than evaluators had hoped for.

“There’s more comfort this year with the high school class than the college class,” one scouting director said. “It’s not a clear-cut Top 10 group . . . not as high-end a group as you would have hoped for this year.”

Strengths And Weaknesses

The high school pitching class is among the riskiest demographics in the draft historically, but this year it has offered depth and variety. The class has started to offer an abundance of prep lefties who have top-two-rounds potential, starting with but not limited to Jason Groome (Barnegat (N.J.) High). In the Midwest, Kansas’ Joey Wentz (Shawnee Mission East HS, Prairie Village) and Texas’ Kyle Muller (Dallas Jesuit Prep) had made significant strides with the quality and consistency of their stuff, with both going from legitimate two-way prospects for college to potential first-round picks as pitchers. They’ve joined Alabama prep Braxton Garrett (Florence High) in the top group of lefthanders, with New York state’s Jeff Belge (Henninger High, Syracuse) and Florida’s Braeden Ogle (Jensen Beach High) pitching their way into the next tier.

The prep righty class also is loaded, starting with Riley Pint (St. Thomas Aquinas HS, Overland Park, Kan.). California’s Matt Manning (Sheldon High, Sacramento), whose father played in the NBA and who has a basketball commitment to Loyola Marymount, has jumped up boards this spring thanks to a fastball that has reached the upper 90s, challenging New York’s Ian Anderson (Shenendehowa High, Clifton Park), Texas’ Forrest Whitley (Alamo Heights High, San Antonio) and fellow NorCal product Jared Horn (Vintage High, Napa) to be the consensus No. 2 prep righty. Whitley has impressed scouts with his improved body and pitchability all spring, making his own case for the first round, with polished California prep Kevin Gowdy and athletic, raw Alex Speas of Georgia in the next tier. As usual, signability will prove a key element of the puzzle for prep pitchers.

The high school hitters offer plenty of depth, particularly outfielders, but that’s also a risky phylum, especially early. A few consensus opinions that have shaken out include Mickey Moniak edging out fellow UCLA signee and USA Baseball 18U teammate Blake Rutherford as the top prep outfielder on the board thanks to his defense, speed and feel for hitting. Moniak earns comparisons to players from Steve Finley to Christian Yelich and is a late threat to go with the No. 1 overall pick to the Phillies.

But the entire country offers high school bats into the first two rounds, from Georgians such as Josh Lowe and Taylor Trammell to Carter Kieboom and Brandon Marsh, to Pennsylvanians Alex Kirilloff and Nolan Jones to athletic Wisconsin shortstop Gavin Lux.

Top evaluators love to remind us every year that prep pitchers especially fall down draft boards the closer it is to draft time, with GMs or even owners often popping their heads into draft rooms to remind scouting directors how well they’ve done with certainly types of players, or to mitigate risk at the top of the draft by drafting a college player. Last year was a good year to mitigate risk, because the board was full of college middle infielders, with a record five in the first round. There’s no college shortstop who deserves to go that high this year other than Tennessee’s Nick Senzel, who entered the year with questions being raised about his defense but since has shifted to shortstop and looks more likely than ever to be able to stay in the infield as a pro.

The college class is marked more by uncertainty, such as who the second college pitcher will be after Florida lefty A.J. Puk, or how high teams will have to jump up to nab someone from the solid crop of college catchers.

The up-the-middle players also include some of the class’ more vexing players, such as athletic Florida center fielder Buddy Reed, who has a pro body and defensive tools but whose switch-hitting bat has lagged behind, and Virginia’s Matt Thaiss, who has a two-year track record of hitting but likely won’t be able to stay behind the plate as a pro.

Among college pitchers, the volatility is real. Puk doesn’t even pitch on Fridays, but Florida’s ace, Logan Shore, doesn’t really have a true plus pitch. Mississippi State’s Dakota Hudson, Vanderbilt’s Jordan Sheffield, Virginia’s Connor Jones and Pittsburgh’s T.J. Zeuch all were pushing their way into consideration to be the second college pitcher drafted after Puk, with Zeuch having the most late helium but still likely to be drafted in the 15-30 range.