Thursday Bubble Wrap: American Opens Up

ACC

Georgia Tech lost its second game in pool play, 6-1 to Florida State. The Yellow Jackets will get one more chance when they face North Carolina State, which is also 0-2 on the week, on Friday night. Even with its last loss, Tech remains a stout No. 19 in the RPI on WarrenNolan.com. Given that position, it’s tough to say Friday’s game is truly as simple as do-or-die. It’s conceivable Tech gets in even with a loss. But if the Jackets do lose, they would’ve gone 1-3 in the ACC tournament on top of losing three straight series to end the regular season, in which they finished ninth in the ACC. Those are all dangerous ingredients. A win wouldn’t guarantee a bid, either, but it’d certainly give more reason for optimism. Much the same can be said of Wake Forest, which had the day off Thursday and picks things back up against Virginia on Friday.

SEC

Alabama, the lone SEC bubble team still playing, was eliminated by Florida, completing a 1-2 showing in Hoover. Going home with an RPI of 59 will make for an anxious next three days in Tuscaloosa. Like Kentucky, the team it ousted on Tuesday, Alabama has a pair of marquee series wins—on the road at LSU, albeit early in the season, and at home against Mississippi. But the Crimson Tide’s season ended with a thud, getting swept at home against South Carolina to end the regular season before losing two of three in the tournament, and it went just 7-16 against the RPI top 50. A 15-15 record in the SEC typically gets you in, but not with an RPI like Alabama’s.

American

Connecticut took care of South Florida and is just a win away from the championship game, its RPI climbing to No. 48 in the process. They Huskies will get the day off Friday and await the winner of an elimination game between USF and Memphis, which eliminated East Carolina. As with Thursday’s game, neither of those potential opponents will do much to help UConn’s RPI, but they do provide a lighter path to the title game.

Beyond what UConn’s doing, the American is suddenly well on its way to becoming a three-bid league, with ECU getting knocked out and top-seed Tulane dropping into the losers bracket after getting beat by Houston. UH could get into the at-large picture, but with an RPI of 63 and having gone just 11-12 in the conference in the regular-season, it’s an uphill battle. If the AAC does come down to a UConn-Houston title game, it’s doubtful the loser could still get in, especially if it’s Houston. But nonetheless the AAC is another Tulane loss away from assuring itself of a third bid. The Green Wave plays Central Florida in an elimination game Friday.

Big Ten

We’ve written plenty in recent weeks about how middling ACC teams with high RPIs will be interesting test cases for the committee. Well, Minnesota will be another of those test cases, but at the other end of the spectrum. The Gophers were eliminated from the Big Ten tournament Thursday by Michigan, dropping their RPI to 56. That’s normally Bubble OUT territory. But, the Gophers have the Big Ten’s regular-season championship on their resume, and a very attractive 18-11 record in road games. Those are both important selling points. Unfortunately, the committee was unforgiving to regular-season champs in the same RPI neighborhood last year—North Florida (45), Southeastern Louisiana (52) and Nevada (55)—and Minnesota’s mere 3-3 record against the top 50 is worrisome.

Michigan is probably a win away from safety after pushing its RPI to 33. It may be there already. The Wolverines just need to avoid any bad losses the rest of the way. In the only other Big Ten game played before rain washed out the rest of the schedule, Nebraska was eliminated by Indiana. That dropped the Huskers to No. 43 in the RPI, definite bubble territory, but their 16-8 league record and second-place finish should still be good enough.

Conference USA

Marshall had its chance at a marquee win but lost 9-3 to Southern Mississippi. With an RPI of 63, a loss to Florida International in Friday’s elimination game would mean the end of its season, despite its second-place finish.

Bid Thief Watch

The developments in the American are the first real alarm bells going off here. Outside of that, though, the news has still been good for bubble teams. Coastal Carolina had the day off and is a win away from the Big South finals. Dallas Baptist moved to 2-0 in the Missouri Valley, while Bryant (Northeast), Creighton (Big East) and UNC Wilmington (Colonial) all won their tournament openers. Also in the Southland, Sam Houston State and Southeastern Louisiana, its top at-large contenders, both moved to 2-0 as well.