Scouting Kevin Maitan And Four Other Top Shortstops For July 2

The strength of the 2016 international signing class is at shortstop. They won’t all stick at the position, but in a year in which the top outfielders aren’t quite on par with previous classes, shortstop is the position with the best combination of high-end prospects and depth.

These five shortstops in particular have earned widespread praise from international scouts, with an argument to be made that they’re the top five overall players in the entire class.

Kevin Maitan, Venezuela

For many teams, the best player in the 2016 class is Maitan, who trains with Henderson Martinez. In 2013, Martinez had lefthander Ricardo Sanchez, who signed with the Angels for $580,000 that year on July 2, and was later traded to the Braves. At the time, Maitan was still 13, but he was so talented that Martinez was already showing him to teams when they came in to scout Sanchez and the following year when they were watching outfielder Brayan Hernandez, who signed with the Mariners for $1.85 million in 2014.

Now 16, Maitan has progressed into a special talent, one with a rare combination of physicality, athleticism, tools, hitting ability and overall feel for the game. It’s why he’s going to get the top bonus in the class aside from Cuban players and shatter the record for a Venezuelan amateur bonus ($2.8 million for Blue Jays righthander Adonys Cardona) on July 2, with the Braves the heavy frontrunner to land him for north of $4 million.

Maitan is 6-foot-2, 175 pounds and should be have a big, physical frame once he’s filled out. He has good bat speed and some scouts already give him plus raw power, with a chance to grow into 70 power as he gets stronger. He has generally been a high-level performer in games as well, earning praise for his ability to recognize pitches with a mature hitting approach. Maitan’s swing is more advanced from the right side of the plate, and while there is some swing-and-miss that comes with the power, it should be manageable given the overall offensive production.

“Nobody is a can’t miss,” said one scout, “but it’s hard to see him missing. And he got better as I saw him more and more. It’s tough to bet against the bat. I saw him hit a ton in games. The approach is really sound. He can discern a ball from a strike. He’s going to strike out a bit because of the swing plane, but I think he’s going to hit and hit for power.”

The biggest split among scouts on Maitan is whether he stays at shortstop. He’s not Miguel Sano, who when he signed with the Twins as a shortstop projected to be so large that sticking at the position was never a realistic option. Maitan is big, but not Sano big, so whether he remains a shortstop long-term is still up in the air.

For now, Maitan is a plus runner, and while he figures to slow down as he puts on weight, his combination of athleticism, plus arm, hands and footwork are all good enough to begin his career at shortstop. Some scouts expect Maitan will outgrow the position and slide over to third base, but others believe the tools are all there for Maitan to have a shot to remain a shortstop.

“Sometimes we try to move guys off the position too fast,” said a second scout, who held one of the most optimistic views on Maitan’s defense. “I think he can stay at shortstop until he’s about 30.”

Luis Almanzar, Dominican Republic

After Maitan, Almanzar has a case as the No. 2 player in the class and the best player in the Dominican Republic. Almanzar grew up playing organized baseball, including a trip to the Cal Ripken World Series in Maryland in 2012. Almanzar was born and raised in the Dominican Republic, but he took the unusual step of enrolling at American Heritage High (Plantation, Fla.), one of the elite baseball programs in the country. He hit well there in his one season as a 15-year-old, then moved back to the Dominican Republic and has been training with Ivan Noboa. Almanzar will sign as an international free agent on July 2, likely with the Padres for a bonus of around $4 million.

The biggest draw for Almanzar is his bat. He’s a 6-foot, 185-pound righthanded hitter with good rhythm and balance, clean path to the ball and quick bat speed. He’s a consistent high-level game performer who doesn’t strike out much, with a keen eye to recognize pitches and control the strike zone. He takes a line-drive approach in games with the ability to use right-center field. With his strong forearms and the way the ball already jumps off his bat, he has a chance to get on base at a high rate and hit for power.

A lot of scouts expect Almanzar will have to move off shortstop and will fit better at third or second base, pointing to a physically mature frame for his age with a thick lower half. Others think it’s too soon to rule out shortstop, noting that Almanzar has already improved from the average speed he was showing earlier in the tryout process and could play the position if he can keep his conditioning in check.

Luis Garcia, Dominican Republic

A player with major league bloodlines doesn’t typically fly under the radar, but Garcia is an unusual case. His father, also a shortstop named Luis Garcia, had a quick sip of coffee in the majors in 1999, when he went 1-for-9 in eight games. His has handled the tryout process for his son, who didn’t play in any of the trainer-organized leagues like the Dominican Prospect League or the International Prospect League.

Born in the United States, Garcia only turned 16 on May 16. Since teams have become so aggressive scouting and trying to secure agreements with players more than a year in advance of the July 2 when they become eligible to sign, Garcia was still 14 when teams were watching him early last year. His stock has soared since then.

A 5-foot-11 lefty hitter, Garcia combines excellent athleticism with the ability to perform in games. He’s a plus-plus runner with a simple, flat swing path geared for line drives, with excellent exit velocity that creates loud contact. Garcia and Almanzar are both in the upper echelon of international prospects for July 2, and while Garcia doesn’t have the same track record as Almanzar, Garcia is a more explosive athlete with better speed. The Nationals are the favorites to sign Garcia, likely for a bonus in the $1-$1.5 million range.

“I thought he was very underrated coming into the year and a very good prospect,” said a third scout. “He’s an athletic, sleek, live-bodied shortstop who can really run. I loved everything about him. He’s highly projectable, he has feel at the plate and plenty of actions at shortstop. It’s tools and skills.”

Freudis Nova, Dominican Republic

Nova, who trains with Rudy Santin, separated himself as one of the top-tier players in the class with a well-rounded set of tools and explosiveness. He has a lean, athletic build (6-foot-1, 175 pounds) and snappy bat speed. He has a compact righthanded stroke that stays on plane through the hitting zone, he keeps his head locked in and recognizes pitches fairly well for his age with home run power in batting practice. He’s not as polished of a hitter as Almanzar, but scouts generally said they saw him perform well in games.

Nova’s speed and arm strength are both plus tools. He has a good chance to remain at shortstop, where he has good hands, though he will need to improve his footwork and some of his fundamentals on the non-routine plays to cut down on mistakes.

That all adds up to an exciting prospect, which is why the Marlins looked like they were ready to strike, with a projected bonus of a little more than $2.5 million. Instead, Nova tested positive for steroids in February, and while he has since taken multiple drug tests that did not detect any steroids, the Marlins are no longer in the mix. Now, the Astros are expected to sign Nova, with a price tag likely around $1.5 million.

How to account for Nova’s positive steroid test is a question without an easy answer, and a subject of significant importance in an arena where steroid use is too common. Some players have seen their tools back up after coming off steroids, while other players Nova’s age have seen their tools and overall prospect status improve even after testing positive.

“He had some serious twitch and bat speed,” said a fourth scout. “I thought he was a five-tool shortstop and a good ballplayer. Some of these guys that have all the tools don’t do it in the game, but you put him in the game, he’s a ballplayer. I liked his bat and I think he’s going to have some thump.”

Gabriel Arias, Venezuela

Arias is the top player this year in Ciro Barrios’ program, which has produced Athletics shortstop Franklin Barreto and Cubs shortstop Gleyber Torres, among others. At 14, Arias was the youngest player on Venezuela’s 15U World Cup team in Mexico in August 2014, when he was teammates with Rockies outfielder Daniel Montano, Red Sox outfielder Albert Guaimaro and other notable 2015 prospects. Two months later, Arias was the shortstop and three-hole hitter on the Venezuelan team at the COPABE 14U Pan American Championship in Nicaragua.

Now 16, Arias has emerged as one of the top 2016 prospects, right behind Maitan as the No. 2 player in Venezuela in the opinion of several scouts. He has grown to a lean 6-foot-2, 180 pounds, with a physical frame that has room to add another 25 pounds. He’s a high baseball IQ player with a well-rounded skill set and solid tools that play up because of his overall feel for the game.

Arias is a righthanded hitter with sound swing mechanics and a good approach for his age. He manages his at-bats well, uses right-center field and should grow into average to a tick better power. Arias’ best present tool is his plus arm. He has good defensive actions, reacts well to grounders off the bat and makes all the routine plays at shortstop. He’s not a big runner, and there’s a split among scouts about whether he will remain at shortstop or slide over to third base depending whether he can get quicker and how much bigger he gets. The Padres are the favorites to sign Arias for a bonus in the $1.5-$2 million window.

“His tools aren’t as explosive as Kevin Maitan’s, but he’s a baseball player with good tools,” said the third scout. “He can really play the game. I liked the swing path, the power projection and the hittability, which makes the power usable. And it’s a 6 arm with a fluid release. He’s going to have plus accuracy with good hands, good feet and he reads hops well at shortstop.”