Deadline Notebook: Updates On Top Cuban Players As Signing Period Closes

The 2015-16 international signing period closes on Wednesday, a deadline of importance particularly for Cuban players.

The Dodgers, Cubs, Giants, Royals and Blue Jays went over their 2015-16 international bonus pools, which means that once the signing period closes, they won’t be able to sign any players subject to the pools for more than $300,000.

The Dodgers have spent aggressively on Cuban players both in and out of the bonus pools, with their scouts and high-ranking front office officials seen scouting several high-profile Cuban players recently. They appear to be lining up their cards to make another move before their window closes.

Several Cuban players are still on edge waiting for Major League Baseball to clear them to sign by Wednesday, which would keep their ability to sign with the Dodgers or Cubs or at least keep them in the mix for negotiating leverage.

The most likely landing spots for most of the top young Cuban players are the teams that have already gone over their pools this year or the ones planning to on July 2, when the 2016-17 signing period starts. The Dodgers and Cubs are the primary teams to watch among the clubs that are already over, though the Giants might be in the mix as well (remember, they thought that had Eddy Julio Martinez signed for $2.5 million, a deal they might be better off not having completed anyway). The Royals haven’t come up much at all, while the Blue Jays are only penalized one year right now and probably won’t spend any more to go into a two-year penalty.

The teams going over on July 2 to watch are the Astros, Braves, Cardinals, Nationals and Padres. The Reds are also going over their pool to sign a Cuban player, but they might trade up for more pool space to avoid any penalties.

As for the older Cuban players who are exempt from the international bonus pools, they can sign with any club at any time without restrictions. Yulieski Gurriel, Jose Miguel Fernandez, Luis Yander La O and Yadiel Hernandez are all pool-exempt free agents who ranked among BA’s Top 20 Cuban players last year. The Brewers and Cardinals are two teams that have been tied to Hernandez recently. Lourdes Gurriel is also will also be exempt from the international bonus pools once he turns 23 in October.

But for the Cuban players subject to the bonus pools, the clock is ticking. Here are the ones to watch.

Waiting For Free Agency

Norge Ruiz, rhp: Ruiz is only 22, but he was arguably the best pitcher in Cuba in terms of present ability at the time he left. He struggled in the second half of the 2014-15 season, which has some scouts concerned that it might be a trend, but at his best, Ruiz has looked like a future midrotation starter who combines average to plus stuff with excellent feel for pitching.

Cionel Perez, lhp: Perez isn’t at the same level as fellow Cuban lefty Adrian Morejon as a prospect, but he’s a 20-year-old who was already one of the most effective starters in Serie Nacional, leading the league in ERA in 2014-15. He’s an athletic 5-foot-10 lefty with a quick arm and a fastball that sits in the low-90s with good movement. In Cuba, Perez’s breaking ball ranged from 74-80 mph and looked below-average to fringy with slurvy action. A lot of scouts like Perez quite a bit more than I did when I saw him pitch in Cuba. Some of those scouts liked the progression of Perez’s secondary pitches, with a changeup now in his arsenal.

Jorge Ona, of: While Ona is still waiting for free agency, there’s less pressure for him than there is for Ruiz, since he’s expected to wait until July 2 anyway, with the Padres likely to sign him once he he’s cleared. Ona, 20, has a compact righthanded swing with plus raw power and arm strength in right field.

Adrian Morejon, lhp: Morejon and Ona train together, and the two are likely to land with the Padres after July 2 once MLB allows them to sign. Morejon, 17, struck out 113 batters in 68 innings in Cuba’s 15U national league in 2014, then won the MVP of the 15U World Cup later that year. He’s a favorite among scouts for his easy delivery, feel for pitching and stuff that keeps trending up, with his fastball having touched 95 and good secondary pitches too.

Free Agents Now

Vladimir Gutierrez, rhp: Gutierrez has been out of Cuba since February 2014, but he can’t pin any of the blame for that on MLB. Gutierrez was one of the best young pitching prospects in Cuba before he left, but when he showcased last summer, his stuff was flat and his mechanics were off. He has looked much better (in fact, better than ever) recently, with a fastball that has touched 97 mph along with his plus curveball. A lanky 20-year-old, Gutierrez had a private workout recently at Dodger Stadium. The Dodgers and Astros had the biggest scouting contingents at his last open showcase in Florida.

Randy Arozarena, ss/cf: Arozarena is likely to wait until July 2 to sign. In the meantime, he has been playing well for the Toritos in Mexico, batting .321/.429/.513 in 189 plate appearances, with four home runs, 25 walks, 40 strikeouts and 24 stolen bases in 31 attempts. I ranked Arozarena as the No. 9 player in Cuba in our April 2015 Cuban player rankings because I liked his quick-twitch athleticism, speed, compact swing and a keen eye at the plate. There’s more uncertainty on the defense, but I think he’s an underrated player who would get more attention if he were in the Dominican Republic.

Lazaro Armenteros, of: Given everything that has transpired off the field surrounding Armenteros, I don’t want to get too much into what’s happening here yet. On the field, he’s a 17-year-old who is one of the most talented players in his age group, with a promising combination of physicality, athleticism, tools and performance. In Cuba’s 15U league in 2014, he hit .416/.529/.733 with six home runs, 26 walks and 19 strikeouts in 136 plate appearances, then led Cuba in OBP and slugging later that year at the 15U World Cup. His swing is unconventional, but there are a lot of things to like with Armenteros, even if other media reports have gotten carried away with expectations.

Alfredo Rodriguez, ss: Rodriguez looks like the centerpiece of Cincinnati’s upcoming international signing class. Instead of signing for $6 million earlier in the year when he became a free agent, Rodriguez now looks like he will sign for around $7 million to wait until July 2 to sign with the Reds. He’s a talented defender with slick actions in the field, but he struggled to hit in Cuba.

Jonatan Machado, of: The Cardinals are expected to sign Machado on July 2 for a bonus in the $2.5 million area. A member of Cuba’s 15U World Cup team in 2014, Machado is only 5-foot-9, but he’s a high contact hitter with plus-plus speed and good defensive instincts in center field.

Ronald Bolanos, rhp: Bolanos was one of my sleepers before he left Cuba. He was an outfielder coming up through the Cuban junior leagues, then converted to pitching and made the 2014 18U junior national team. Bolanos is an athletic 6-foot-2 righthander whose fastball ranged from 88-93 mph in Cuba and flashed an above-average but inconsistent slider. Some scouts who have seen him since he left Cuba said they saw him touch 94.

Anibal Sierra, ss: Sierra was not a standout player in Cuba, either in terms of performance or tools, but the Astros clearly saw something different in him, since they have an agreement to sign Sierra for $3.5 million once July 2 arrives. Here’s more on that deal.

More Names To Know

In general, the types of players we have seen teams overpay for recently are players who had modest performance records in Cuba, put on a good showcase for at least one team after they left the country, then quickly disappointed clubs after they signed. I don’t know whether we will see that trend continue, but these are some other names that have popped up among Cuban players eligible for the bonus pools.

Yanio Perez, 3b/of
Yoel Yanqui, of
Yordan Alvarez, 1b/of
Lazaro Alonso, 1b/of
Michel Baez, rhp
Johan Oviedo, rhp
Darien Nunez, lhp
Victor Baro, rhp
Diosbel Arias, ss