What To Expect: Reds Lefthander Cody Reed

Cincinnati’s pitching staff has been a disaster this season. With a 5.42 team ERA, the Reds are easily worst in the National League. Their Fielding Independent Pitching (FIP) is even worse at 5.64. Cincinnati has already used 25 pitchers this year, and it’s sent more than an entire starting rotation to the disabled list–most notably Homer Bailey, Raisel Iglesias, John Lamb, Jon Moscot and Anthony DeSclafani have all missed time.

But help will arrive this weekend as Cincinnati is calling up lefthander Cody Reed, who was 6-3, 3.20 in 11 starts with Triple-A Indianapolis. Reed will become the 12th pitcher to start a game for the Reds this season. How things have changed–in 2012 the Reds used six starting pitchers all season as 161 of the team’s 162 starts came from the five-man rotation.

Reed is the best prospect the Reds acquired in last year’s trade deadline deal that sent Johnny Cueto to the Royals. With the promotion, four pitchers the Royals traded away last year at the deadline–Lamb, Sean Manaea, Brandon Finnegan and Reed have all made big league starts this season.

SCOUTING REPORT

Reed had one of the best 1-2 pitch combos in the minors before his promotion. Reed can spot his mid-90s fastball to both sides of the plate. That kind of velocity from a lefty starter is still quite rare. While there are 15 righthanded starters among league qualifiers who are averaging 94 mph or better with the four-seamer, there are no lefty starters among qualifiers who sit 94 mph or better.

But as good as Reed’s fastball is, it’s his mid-to-high-80s slider that is his best pitch. Numerous scouts are willing to give it a plus-plus grade. As Ben Badler wrote earlier this year, Reed’s slider is something he’s comfortable throwing early or late in the count. It dives away from lefthanded hitters (who are hitting .239/.320/.373 against him), but it’s nearly as effective against righthanders (.247/.294/.346) as Reed will bust them in with back-foot sliders that start out in the zone before diving out of it.

Reed’s changeup is not nearly as developed. It’s a fringe-average offering but one that he doesn’t have nearly as much confidence in currently.

With premium velocity and a swing-and-miss breaking ball, Reed has one of the highest ceilings of any starting pitcher who will be promoted this season. And he combines that with surprisingly effective control–his 2.4 walks per nine innings this year is excellent. He’s a strike-thrower who has a 66 percent strike percentage this season.

WHAT TO EXPECT

Reed could be the Reds’ best starting pitcher before long. While Robert Stephenson has gotten a couple of quick callups for Cincinnati this season while Reed waited in the minors, it is Reed who is more ready to contribute right away.