Prospect Hot Sheet Chat (June 17)

Philip (San Diego): O/U 1.5 of top 50 picks not signing?
J.J. Cooper: I’ll take the under. If you tell me one player doesn’t sign I wouldn’t be shocked, but two would surprise me. As I said this week on Twitter and wrote on the site. 98 percent of top 10 round picks sign nowadays. A significant number of the ones that don’t are because of a medical report that causes the drafting team to reduce their offer. Other than that, almost always these teams and the player have worked out an agreement or a ballpark by the time they are picked.

Jay (GA): Interesting that Weigel has delivery concerns. Does Soroka still have delivery concerns with his crossfire or has he ironed those issues out?
J.J. Cooper: Soroka has gotten a lot more direct to the plate. He’s a pretty different and improved pitcher over the past two years. He is a very heady pitcher who self-analyzes and rectifies issues. Here’s a lengthy story I wrote about it this spring: https://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/alignment-tweak-puts-mike-soroka-on-right-track/#ZRKCgrOGxuEjuvvq.97 Last year lefties hit .373 against Soroka because they saw the ball so well. This year, they are hitting .250 and slugging .350.

Grant (NYC): Not a question, just a comment. Every Pirates' prospect should get orbital surgery, apparently, as both Meadows and Newman have been killing the ball since theirs. Thanks.
J.J. Cooper: It is crazy, but I would emphasize, kids please don’t do this at home.

Kyle (Florida): With the Pirates and Phillies rotations in need of help, when should we expect to see Chad Kuhl and Ben Lively get the call?
J.J. Cooper: Kuhl’s biggest problem is he’s in the same rotation as Jameson Taillon (just called up), Tyler Glasnow and Steven Brault. That’s four guys who could all make cases to pitch in big league rotations. As good as Kuhl has been, Glasnow could be the next guy up and it would be understandable. It’s a similar story for Philly. Yes, Eflin’s debut with the Phillies is something that no one should every discuss again but he should get some further starts to try to avoid deep mental scarring and Jake Thompson could make the case to come up before Lively.

Jmax (At work, hiding in the bathroom stall): How likely is it that the Blue Jays farm system is underrated? Dalton Pompey & Drew Hurchison obviously don't qualify for the prospect lists, but add them to guys like Alford, Tellez, Reid Foley, the seemingly healthy Pentecost, Harris, Green and Vlad, that to me seems pretty solid moving forward. Your thoughts?
J.J. Cooper: There’s still a lot of ifs to the system. The seemingly healthy Pentecost hasn’t played a game in the field yet. They aren’t bereft of talent by any means, but it is largely loaded to the lower minors. Reid-Foley is just back to HiA after spending time there last year. I’m a big Alford fan but he has a sub-.600 OPS this year. Jon Harris has been great, but he was a great college pitcher who is in LoA, so he’s more advanced than the hitters he’s facing. They have the potential to be a better system but there are few guys in the upper minors to get excited about yet.

Brian (Greensboro, NC): What is up with Max Fried? I saw him absolutely dominate last Friday night in Greensboro then he followed it up with a subpar outing. I know he is coming off his TJ surgery but is he still a legit prospect?
J.J. Cooper: Absolutely a legit prospect. The path back from Tommy John isn’t something where the day you return to the mound, you’re 100 percent of what you were pre-injury. Fried’s control hasn’t been great but the stuff has been pretty good and he’s been relatively consistent about getting his innings in.

FIsher (Dodge City, KS): JJ, if Valencia is moved in Oakland, is there a call to the farm to bring up the future 3B? If so, who is that future? Nunez or Chapman, or another?
J.J. Cooper: Nunez probably gets first shot (he’s in Triple-A, Chapman’s not) but I think Chapman is the long-term answer at third because he has a similar bat to Nunez and a better glove. Chapman is good enough to slide over to shortstop in a pinch. Barreto long-term could be in that third base mix as well.

Jose (Washington, DC): The batting line is obviously impressive, but what are scouts saying about Willie Callhoun? Is the bat for real?
J.J. Cooper: The bat has been for real for a long time, the question has been the size and where does he play. He’s a servicable defender, but fringe defense looks a lot better to a manager when it comes from a guy who has significant lefty power.

Jim (New York): Who do you like most long term. Benintendi, Brinson or Meadows? Will all be on a Major League roster next season?
J.J. Cooper: Benintendi. I think he’s likely to hit for average, get on base and have solid power for a long time. All three have a big problem–they are stuck in a logjam. Benintendi is stuck behind JBJ/Betts (maybe he ends up in left field). Meadows is stuck behind McCutchen, Polanco and Marte…which one of those guys are you going to move or sit? I guess Brinson has the clearest path, but if the Rangers re-up Desmond that would be a logjam as well.

Louie (Houston, TX): JJ, The Astros continue to draft, sign and produce pitching. Who is the next SP arm to come up to bigs? And when does he arrive?
J.J. Cooper: You specified SP, so I can’t suggest James Hoyt who I do think could help them in the second half. Can’t predict arrival times as there are too many factors going into it but if the Astros needed someone to come up Brady Rodgers and Joe Musgrove both throw enough strikes to give the big league team a comfort factor that they could handle the jump.

Jeff (Texas): It seems like Josh Bell is still the smooth hitting bat with a developing glove. Is he a good enough hitter to make the Pirates team this season? Do you like his bat long term?
J.J. Cooper: I’d term it as a smooth-hitting and still improving bat with a fringy glove. He’s probably never going to be a Gold Glove 1B, but this is a team that survived Pedro Alvarez making 23 Es at first base in 2015, which is a number that absolutely baffles me to this day. 23 errors is a number you’d expect back in the days of Tinkers-to-Evers-to-Chance. No other first baseman has committed 20+ errors in a season this century. So Bell will be at least to that level. I think he’s a solid switch-hitting bat who is more likely to be productive regular than star, but he should be a big leaguer for a long time.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Mark Mathias had a good week in High A. Fellow 2015 draftee 2B Tyler Krieger has had a good year in Low A. Which one has a better chance to reach the majors?
J.J. Cooper: I have been impressed by what I’m hearing about Krieger this year. But both have a solid chance to be big leaguers of some sort although neither may have massive impact. Mathias was a significant draft prospect who slid because of a shoulder injury. Good get by the Indians to stay on him.

Steve (Portland): With Cody Reed (CIN) starting on Saturday do you expect him to stick in the rotation the rest of the way? Is he a solid #2 starter?
J.J. Cooper: I think there is no reason for Cincy to not let get stretched out and settled in. Reed has the stuff to pitch in the big leagues right now and the control that gives him a chance to be effective. Whatever he has left to learn is more served by pitching against big league hitters than spending more time in Triple-A. I think he is one of the best pitching prospects in the game right now. Yeah, if it comes together he could be a solid No. 2. That’s a lofty ceiling, but Reed’s stuff is rare for a lefty.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Would you slot either Taylor Trammell or Chris Okey into the Reds top 10 prospects?
J.J. Cooper: Yeah. Could make a case that Reds got three guys who could slot in their Top 10 right away.

Ben (Miamisburg, OH): Former first round pick has a great all around game with power, plate discipline, defense, speed on the bases......except he seems to always hit .230-.250 despite good contact rates. Can he be a productive major leaguer if he does everything well except hit for a decent average?
J.J. Cooper: I don’t know who you are asking about here? Fun game though…can anyone guess who Ben is asking about?

Joel (Tulsa, OK): How close was Luke Weaver to making this week's list? He's been awesome in AA so far.
J.J. Cooper: Very close. I had him in at one point and then slid him out because I wanted to slide a guy onto the back end.

Douglas (Vancouver): What is it about J.P. Crawford that makes him such a highly regarded prospect? If defense was taken out of the equation, would his bat still make him a top 10 prospect?
J.J. Cooper: No. His bat alone wouldn’t if he was a DH. But he’s not a DH. He’s a 21-year-old shortstop who is very solid at the toughest position defensively. He’s more of what we thought Lindor was going to be-a top of the order table setter. Lindor has now gone out and shown he has 10-15 HR potential at least. Crawford may have that in him as well as he matures, but if he’s just a high average, high on-base guy who hits a lot of doubles, that’s fine too.

Dan (Augusta, ME): JJ Cooper, ladies and gents, with his legendary punctuality 🙂
J.J. Cooper: Sorry guys. Had a scout call I needed to finish. Hopefully the payoff will come with the Midseason Prospect Update.

Iggy (Spring Lake, MI): Is Hader going to be reliable long-term as a starter, or will control issues send him to the pen?
J.J. Cooper: I’m sold he’s got a high probability of sticking as a starter. More than the control the questions I have heard are raised around his delivery/build but to me you let a guy with that kind of stuff prove he can’t start.

Oliver (Boston): When a 20 year old performs well in the DSL, I usually pay no mind. What Brian Sanchez of the DSL Cards did is enough to make me look twice. In his last 7 games, he hit 20 for 35, cracked 6 doubles, a triple and 5 home runs (1.229 SLG). Is this a guy we should be paying attention to in spite of his advanced age?
J.J. Cooper: When a 20 year old performs in the DSL I truly pay it no mind. He’s so much more advanced physically/mentally than the guys he is facing. To go way back in 2004 the Cubs had a Cuban pitcher, Raul Valdes, who was forced to pitch in the DSL because of visa issues as a 27-year-old. Valdes went 7-2, 0.51 in 16 starts, 88 innings, 38 hits allowed, 8 walks and 152 strikeouts. For that year, Valdes was Sandy Koufax pitching in Dodgers Stadium with the Santa Ana winds blowing in. The next year he got a US visa and was sent to the States. He posted a 5.00+ ERA in Double-A and was released in 2006. Now Sanchez’s case is not nearly as extreme as that, but 20 year olds should absolutely dominate the DSL.

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): When a scouting report says player X "does it with strength rather than bat speed", what does that mean. Is there such a thing as strength with normal bat speed? Thanks,
J.J. Cooper: There is. I’ve asked scouts that exact question before. I’ve also heard it termed as a leverage swing. Triple-A is filled with guys who have the strength to hit the ball out of the ballpark, but they do it with a swing that can’t catch up to good fastballs consistently, and the swing usually goes through the strike zone on an uppercut that gives them a smaller window of opportunity to strike the ball squarely. Ernesto Mejia, Mike Hessman and Jesus Aguilar are all examples of hitters with strength but without the bat speed to go with it.

Gerry (Scranton): Is Dylan Cozens on the verge of being a top-100 prospect? Phillies struck gold with him, don't you think?
J.J. Cooper: I like Cozens as a solid prospect, but Reading is a great place to hit and he’s taking advantage of that. Cozen’s slugging percentage on the road is more than 300 points less than it is in Reading. Coming into this year, Cozens was a career .264/.325/.431 hitter. On the road this year Cozens is hitting .290/.365/.443, which is an improvement but right in line with what he’s previously done. At home he’s hitting .298/.377/.760. Last year in a late 11-game callup to Reading Cozens hit .360/.393/.720 at Reading and .333/.375/.467 on the road. At Reading, Cozens has hit one home run every eight at-bats. Everywhere else in his pro career he averages one home runs every 36 at-bats. He’s a solid prospect who is more athletic than he looks, but there’s reason for caution.

Alex (Nc): Obviously early, but do you consider Delvin Perez an elite-level talent that could contribute by 21?
J.J. Cooper: It’s very, very early. Let’s see how he does in a pro debut before we throw an ETA on him.

J.J. Cooper: Thanks everyone for coming out. This was fun. We’re starting work on the Midseason Prospect Update and we’ll have it and a lot of Futures Game coverage coming very soon