Ask BA: Looking For Luken

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Q: With Luken Baker being a 1B/DH only guy, what are his draft prospects in 2018?

Chris Johnson
Houston

BA: You are right to wonder just how high Baker can be drafted as a college first baseman. Only 10 college first basemen have been drafted in the first round this century. Four of those were drafted in one year, 2008, and only three have been drafted in the eight drafts since.

And the track record isn’t great for those who are picked. Allan Dykstra, Michael Aubrey, David Cooper and Justin Smoak are cautionary tales. Not one college, first-round first baseman drafted this century has made an all-star game appearance.

It gets even tougher if you are a righthanded-hitting college first baseman. Only two righthanded college first basemen have been drafted in the first round this century—C.J. Cron (18th overall, Angels, 2011) and Matt LaPorta (seventh overall, Brewers 2007). It’s fair to argue that the count is only one as the Brewers drafted LaPorta, a first baseman at Florida, as an outfielder.

Teams shy away from drafting righthanded-hitting/righthanded-throwing first basemen because the logic is that any hitter with an ounce of athleticism would not be playing first base in college. Lefthanded-throwing first basemen get a little more of a pass because a lefthanded thrower is limited to first base or the outfield, so it is not the same indictment of their athleticism.

But Baker has a chance to be the rare exception. Baker could have been a top-two rounds pick out of high school if not for his very strong commitment to Texas Christian. Baker actually had a chance to be a prominent draft pick either as a righthanded pitcher (he sits in the low-to-mid 90s with downhill plane on his fastball) or as a power-hitting first baseman.

Nothing about Baker’s freshman year has cooled those expectations. He was the best player on one of the best teams in the country. Baker hit .379/.483/.577 with 11 home runs this year. He also was 3-1, 1.70 in 10 starts on the mound.

Baker’s pitching ability might complicate his draft status. As was the case in high school, it’s very possible that some teams will like Baker’s pitching potential as much or more than his hitting. At the very least Baker’s strong arm and pitching ability gives teams a good fall-back option if he didn’t work out as a hitter.

Baker has power and approach; it’s a great combination. If he just repeats what he’s done as a freshman, he’ll have a significant track record of production.

Obviously a lot could happen between now and June 2018. But Baker’s freshman year production has been exceptional and Baker’s type of power is rare. Only two college first basemen have been drafted in the top 10 spots this century. Baker is making a good case to be the third.