Midseason Prospect Update: Dodgers
The Midseason Top 10 Prospect lists are compiled from conversations with front office officials and scouts from all 30 teams. Players who have exhausted prospect eligibility or were in the Major Leagues as of June 22 are not eligible. Draftees from the 2016 draft and July 2, 2016 signees are also not eligible.
SEE ALSO: Midseason Top 100
A $200 million payroll doesn’t buy what it used to. While the Yankees list their way through a .500 season, the Dodgers find themselves staring up at the rival Giants in the NL West, despite the game’s highest outlay at about $227 million.
| 2019 PROJECTED LINEUP |
| C Yasmani Grandal |
| 1B Cody Bellinger |
| 2B Willie Calhoun |
| 3B Brendon Davis |
| SS Corey Seager |
| LF Alex Verdugo |
| CF Joc Pederson |
| RF Trayce Thompson |
| No. 1 Starter Clayton Kershaw |
| No. 2 Starter Julio Urias |
| No. 3 Starter Jose De Leon |
| No. 4 Starter Grant Holmes |
| No. 5 Starter Yadier Alvarez |
| Closer Frankie Montas |
Clayton Kershaw has been his usual brilliant self, shrugging off a back injury, and the rest of the starting staff has been sapped by injuries and underperformance. Only Japanese righthander Kenta Maeda, who came with elbow concerns that complicated his contract negotiations, has outpitched expectations.
The offense has been equally mediocre, beyond rookie Corey Seager, the No. 1 prospect in the game entering the season who is ineligible for this list. Seager has shown more power than expected in his first full season and played a solid shortstop. But he hasn’t had much help. Adrian Gonzalez is driving in runs but was slugging below .400. Joc Pederson was showing power but striking out at a prodigious rate and losing some playing time to Trayce Thompson. Justin Turner has been hot of late but not near his 2014-15 levels.
One thing the injuries and underperformance has done is accelerate the timeline of lefthanded phenom Julio Urias, the No. 4 prospect on BA’s Top 100 entering the season. Urias dominated at Triple-A and made his major league debut on May 27, probably two months sooner than the Dodgers had hoped. Urias had some good and bad moments through his first six starts and the Dodgers were being careful with his pitch count.
An injury also affected the makeup of the Midseason Top 10. Righthander Jose De Leon likely would have topped the list if not for two separate injuries that limited his innings.
De Leon could be a good trade chip should the Dodgers decide to go outside the organization to fortify the pitching staff. De Leon and Grant Holmes, plus young hitters at Double-A Tulsa, could be the primary bait as the Dodgers look to improve on their 51-40 start.
MIDSEASON TOP 10
1. Cody Bellinger, 1b
The Dodgers’ first baseman of the future didn’t begin the season until April 30 because of a hip impingement, but had already opened eyes in spring training. The lefthanded hitter has an uncomplicated swing and does a better job of connecting his elbow, hips and legs to drive the ball. In addition to the power increase, Bellinger is just having more efficient at-bats. His strikeout percentage is down, walk rate is up and exit velocity has increased. At first base, Bellinger has smooth actions and quick feet and is an above-average defender.
2. Jose De Leon, rhp
If not for the ankle sprain in March and shoulder issue in May, De Leon would likely be the No. 1 prospect, especially with Corey Seager, Julio Urias and Kenta Maeda graduating. De Leon has come back strong, averaging more than 14 strikeouts per nine innings. De Leon has a fastball that sits 92-93 mph and touches 95 with a great spin rate. He throws a tight slider but the difference-maker is his double-plus changeup.
3. Grant Holmes, rhp
The 18th overall pick in 2014 has had better feel for his power curveball this season, which has helped trim back his walk rate dramatically. The tradeoff is that he’s been in the zone more often and allowed more hits, but his WHIP is line with his career norm. Holmes’ fastball sits 92-95 with good riding life. While some scouts believe his inconsistent command of the breaking ball will limit him to a relief role, the Dodgers believe he can reach his mid-rotation starter profile.
4. Alex Verdugo, cf
The Dodgers believed Verdugo’s future was as a position player and they have been proven correct. Maturity on and off the field has helped Verdugo, who has a compact lefthanded swing and good hand-eye coordination. Some of his swing movements tend toward hitting for more average than power, but the Dodgers believe power will come with added strength gains. He should be able to play center field for the early part of his career before sliding to right, where his plus arm will play perfectly.
5. Frankie Montas, rhp
Montas was expected to provide rotation depth after he was acquired in the three-team deal that sent Todd Frazier from the Reds to the White Sox. But he’s pitched just 16 innings this season after having surgery to remove his first right rib, and then breaking his second right rib. Still, his triple-digit heat and slider make him an intriguing arm.
6. Willie Calhoun, 2b
Calhoun could always hit. At Yavapai (Ariz.) JC, in 2015, he led the he led all Division I junior-college batters with 31 home runs in 61 games, although he stands just 5-foot-8. Calhoun is a compact 187 pounds, capable of creating great energy and bat lag before whipping the bat through the zone with strong wrists and forearms. He has the talent to be an above-average hitter with double-digit homer power. His defense is a concern, with scouts believing he could eventually be playable at the position. Most promising is that Calhoun has embraced the position and works hard to learn to play it better.
7. Austin Barnes, c
Barnes is an intelligent hitter who controls the zone well and likes to stay in the middle of the field. His struggles in the bigs were attributed to getting into bad habits and creating bad angles with his swing. Back at Triple-A, he’s regained his confidence and is barreling the ball. Barnes has versatility, still mixing in time at second base, third and the outfield, but the Dodgers ultimately want him to focus on catching.
8. Jharel Cotton, rhp
Much like De Leon, Cotton’s development of a plus-plus changeup pushed him toward the majors. The change has the action of a screwball and is the East Carolina alum’s putaway pitch. His early struggles this season were due in part to lack of fastball command. The fastball sits in the low 90s. He also throws a curve and hard slider, which both grade as fringy.
9. Yusniel Diaz, of
A standout of Cuba’s junior national leagues, the Dodgers gave Diaz a $15.5 million bonus, and he jumped right to high Class A in his debut. A super athletic player, Diaz has great bat speed whose batting practice elicits ooohs and ahhs. The power hasn’t yet translated to games as he learns to sync up his long swing with his lower body. That means he sometimes can’t catch up to premium velocity, but his upside remains considerable.
10. Yadier Alvarez, rhp
The 19-year-old Cuban got a $16 million bonus and the early returns have been promising, if only for the radar gun readings. Alvarez has reportedly touched 100 mph. He’s got a lively, loose arm and a lithe, athletic frame that allows him to repeat his delivery easily. The slider has good angle and the changeup is in development.
RISING
Righthander Trevor Oaks, a seventh-round pick from Cal Baptist in 2014, is a hard worker with top-scale makeup whose stuff has gotten better each year. In college, Oaks was mainly a fastball/curveball pitcher, but he’s now using a slider and a recently added cutter . . . Six-foot-4 shortstop Brendon Davis is one of the youngest players in full-season ball at just 18 who is struggling to sync up his long levers, but once he does could be a “monster,” one evaluator said . . . Righthander Imani Abdullah, an 11th-round pick a year ago, is still filling out his 6-foot-4 frame but has been up to 94 mph this year with a curveball that has really come on.
FALLING
Johan Mieses, a Dominican outfielder who signed in 2013, is hitting for power but not making consistent contact. The Dodgers consider Mieses a five-tool talent but he has some inefficiencies in his batting stance that get him out of position to hit. The righthanded hitter turns his front shoulder too much, which makes his slow to get his bat back into hitting position . . . Righthander Yaisel Sierra, who got a reported $30 million contract, struggled with the acclimation to pro ball in the States but pitched better in June. His velocity is beginning to come back after he didn’t pitch in 2015, sitting at 91-92 mph. The slider has been flat, but three of four June outings were scoreless.
HURTING
Montas might not help much this season . . . Righthander A.J. Vanegas has not pitched since April 26 because of an undisclosed injury . . . Righthander Walker Buehler might be available to pitch in the instructional league after having Tommy John surgery last August. He was the team’s top draft pick in 2015.
GRADUATING
No. 1 prospect Corey Seager has established himself as one of the best young players in baseball and had a power surge that portends more pop than previously projected . . . No. 5 prospect Kenta Maeda has been more effective and efficient than expected, especially given the elbow irregularities that had an impact on his contract negotiations . . . No. 2 prospect Julio Urias dominated at Triple-A and forced the Dodgers to call him up and place him in the rotation.
COMING ABOARD (Check the Draft Database for more picks)
The Dodgers’ first five picks of the 2016 draft. (s-supplemental round)
1. Gavin Lux, ss, Indian Trail HS, Kenosha, Wis. A quick-twitch athlete with solid hands and actions that suggest he could stay at shortstop, Lux has a sweet lefthanded stroke with burgeoning power.
1. Will Smith, c, Louisville. A late-bloomer in terms of his draft stock, Smith is a solid-average receiver who makes plenty of contact and runs well for a catcher.
1s. Jordan Sheffield, rhp, Vanderbilt. Tommy John alumnus has plus-plus arm speed with the ability to touch 98 mph. He also throws a downer curveball and improving changeup.
2. Mitchell White, rhp, Santa Clara. Another Tommy John survivor, White came on late and saw his velocity jump in his final two starts, including 96 mph 10 times against BYU. He also threw four pitches for strikes against Portland in a 15-strikeout gem.
3. Dustin May, rhp, Northwest HS, Justin, Texas. The projectable 6-foot-6 redhead has a potentially plus breaking ball with slider shape and a fastball that has touched 93-94 mph.
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