Prospect Hot Sheet Chat (July 15)

Ben Badler: Hmmmm. I see we have a few Anderson Espinoza questions today. Let’s get started.

Mike (Brooklyn): What does it take for the Yankees to pry Victor Robles from the Nationals?
Ben Badler: Robles is a potential cornerstone player. He shouldn’t be going anywhere.

Logan (Wisco): Is Isan Diaz the best Brewer's hitting prospect? Is he close to breaking into top 100 lists? Admittedly, this question is derived from stat-line scouting. Just curious what talent evaluators thought about him compared to the games top prospects.
Ben Badler: I like him. Fairly sound swing with good power for someone who projects as a second baseman. Certainly wouldn’t put him ahead of the likes of Arcia, Phillips and Clark though.

Chris Bundus (Cleveland): If everything goes right, does Sandy Alcantara have ace caliber potential? Whats the likelihood of him reaching his ceiling?
Ben Badler: No, but I don’t put that ace label on many pitchers, and he could become a No. 2 or 3 starter.

Jim (Berlin, NJ): Delvin Perez is off and running in the GCL. How astute were the Cards getting him at #23, assuming the young man stays off the road to baseball perdition.
Ben Badler: I thought that was a fair spot for him to go, with the caveat that I don’t have all the specifics of any banned substances he may have been using. PEDs are tricky to account for in an evaluation, but they’re a part of baseball, and smart teams act rationally rather than emotionally when accounting for them in player evaluation and their decision-making processes.

Cy Old (Cooperstown, duh!): Hi Ben, Not a question, just a Red Sox Fan's Lament: Anderson Espinoza, aaaarrrggghhhh! we hardly knew ye.
Ben Badler: Getting a lot of this from Red Sox fans. I can’t say I’m stunned Dombrowski would surrender one of his team’s elite prospects, but that’s a tremendous pull for the Padres to get Espinoza.

Nick (LA): Good to see Devers turning things around in a major way. Do you think he sticks at 3b long term? Or is Devers at 1b and Moncada at 3b the more likely long term outlook?
Ben Badler: Devers was one of the better prospects off to a slow start who I had the least amount of concern with, so it’s good to see the hits starting to fall for him lately. His defense is much improved at third base, so I don’t have any concerns about him playing there. Moncada can play pretty much anywhere on the field other than shortstop or catcher, so they might move him around based on the needs of the major league team, but Devers for me is a true third baseman.

Alex (St. Louis): What is the potential for a guy like Alex Reyes and who is a pitcher you could compare his overall package/stuff with?
Ben Badler: One of the few pitchers in the minors I will throw ace potential on. We all saw the fastball in the Futures Game, and it’s regularly reaching 100-101 mph even as a starter. Back that up with a curveball that flashes anywhere from 60-70 grade at its best and a changeup that’s become another swing-and-miss weapon and you have true frontline stuff with the chance to rack up a ton of strikeouts. He has to command it better, but I’m optimistic the delivery and athleticism should allow him to make that adjustment.

Rock Star GM (San Diego): What are your thoughts on the trade for Espinoza
Ben Badler: Terrific deal for the Padres. They’re getting one of the game’s elite pitching prospects. Yes, there’s risk in Espinoza, but the upside is a No. 1 starter with three plus or better pitches, good command and an easy, fluid delivery, and from a pitcher who could move quickly even though he’s still 18. The risk, frankly, in elite-level prospects who are ranked that high is overstated, while the risk in a “proven all-star” is wildly understated as if they’re sure bets (check on Shelby Miller, by the way). All players have risk. So I love the deal for the Padres. I get the rationale for the Red Sox, but that’s a higher price than I would have been comfortable paying for Drew Pomeranz.

Warren (New London): Not knocking Miguelangel Sierra as a prospect, but how seriously are you taking his power spike? Appalachian League ballparks are pretty small: Enrique Wilson hit 13 home runs in 197 AB there, and never hit that many again.
Ben Badler: I’m not expecting him to keep hitting a home run every other game, but Sierra’s biggest weakness coming into the year was his lack of strength and minimal power. If he has a chance to go from being a guy who occasionally puts one into the gap into someone with a chance for 10-15 home runs, his projection changes pretty significantly.

Nick (LA): What are the reports in Aiken this far. I saw the piece you guys posted yesterday on him but it only referred to the Indians liking what they see but no objective scouting. Is it still too early to even really know if he's regained all his stuff?
Ben Badler: He’s pitched 12 innings coming off Tommy John surgery. Having seen players like Jarrod Parker and others in their first outings post-TJ, they’re usually rusty with command and the stuff isn’t as sharp. Drawing any big conclusions or making projections based on the stuff he’s showing now is, at best, premature.

Tim (Reno): Have any previous year J2 guys impressed you with their performances in short season ball to date? You're always way ahead on highlighted such guys.
Ben Badler: Esteury Ruiz, who we highlighted today in the Helium Watch, is a deep sleeper to keep an eye on. And I’m a big fan of Mets SS Andres Gimenez. He could be special.

Alex (Nc): Is Johan Oviedo just a prospect that slipped through the spotlight or are the cardinals the only one that see him as a frontliner?
Ben Badler: I mentioned his name before he signed. Saw him pitch a couple years ago in the 18U tournament in Mexico, fastball was mostly upper-80s, now he’s been touching 95. Good frame, showed feel to spin a breaking ball at the time, but reports on his secondary stuff in the Dominican Republic were inconsistent, erratic strike-throwing ability in his track record.

Terry (Branson): How do you take into account makeup when ranking a guy really high like Reyes when you know you enjoys weed?
Ben Badler: It doesn’t matter to me. Once you’re on the 40-man roster, you can’t get suspended for marijuana. I don’t see any evidence that it would adversely affect pitching performance, and I’m sure there are plenty of major leaguers who use, including ones with Cy Young trophies on their mantles.

Fred (NY): If an organization is particularly good or bad with certain types of prospects, do you factor that into your scouting of a prospect? For example, might you have a higher opinion of a Cubs hitter or Mets pitcher than if they played for another organization?
Ben Badler: I don’t, unless it’s a subconscious bias I don’t even pick up on. But, for example, if I’m talking about a player with a scout who I know has a particularly good eye for something and has a strong track record in that area, I’m prone to giving his opinion more weight than others when it comes time to writing up that player and ranking him.

Michael (Toronto): For fantasy purposes: Dansby or Bregman?
Ben Badler: Bregman. Better bat control, sharper strike-zone discipline, more power. No knock on Swanson, but Bregman has just been super impressive.

Warren (New London): What can you tell me about Jose Gomez, 19 year old SS hitting .417 with 5 strikeouts in 96 AB at Grand Junction? Just a hot start, or have the Rockies got something here?
Ben Badler: Have heard some good early reports on him out of the Pioneer League. Smart, highly instinctive player who understands the strike zone with a knack for putting the barrel to the ball. Not sure yet whether he’s a shortstop or a second baseman, but he will stay in the middle infield and he has a plus arm. Good sleeper on the rise.

cj (alab): would gallo for Teheran be to much? are looking more into the Brinson tier
Ben Badler: I’m not letting Gallo anywhere if I’m the Rangers. I think he’s going to be a monster.

Steve (Wilmington): How is it that MLB has already punished the Red Sox for their skirting MLB rules on international signings but hasn't penalized the Cardinals in any way for hacking into the Astros system and also committing federal crimes?
Ben Badler: In the Cardinals’ case, there’s an outcome of a criminal trial they’re still waiting on before making any decisions.

Michael (Dallas): Is Anderson Tejeda of the Rangers a legit prospect? Are there any other low level guys Rangers fans should be excited about? Thanks
Ben Badler: Tejeda’s another one who has gotten good early feedback from scouts in rookie ball. I don’t know that he’s a shortstop, although he does have a strong arm, but he seems to have a knack for hitting and a good approach for his age. Leody Taveras is the main lower-level Rangers prospect to watch, and obviously David Garcia now too, but Tejeda’s definitely getting attention too.

Jorge Ona (somewhere in the world): When am I going to be cleared to sign with the Padres?
Ben Badler: No idea. MLB has all the control over these players and has no transparency on this, either publicly, to the players or to the teams.

Jerry (Philadelphia): Why are you still so high on Gallo? Each year he starts to look more like Brandon Wood than a future star. The same thing goes for Byron Buxton--I know they are still young and playing at advanced levels but it really doesn't seem like they are progressing skills wise. They are who they are.
Ben Badler: He’s striking out less, hitting for more power, chasing fewer pitches outside the strike zone and drawing more walks, all as a 22-year-old in Triple-A. He’s not Wade Boggs, but there’s 40+ home run potential with plenty of walks to keep that OBP up even with the strikeouts.

Shawn (Manitowoc, WI): Which international prospects making their stateside debuts are making the biggest impression so far this year? I would imagine Juan Soto, Jesus Sanchez, Leody Tavares are up there who are some others?
Ben Badler: Those three are all good ones. Braves SS Derian Cruz too, and Phillies OF Jhailyn Ortiz is showing more ability to hit against live pitching than initially expected.

Jose Jerez (Arizona): Do you think the Athletics will play Lazarito Armenteros this year? If so, where; AZL or DSL?
Ben Badler: Might depend on what they negotiated with him before signing. If he stays in the DSL, he should save a bunch of money on taxes. I don’t think it will make a big difference, just as long as he gets back into competitive game action somewhere.

FC (New York): What are the scouts saying about Vlad Guerrero Jr thus far?
Ben Badler: That bat looks as advertised. So does the defense, but if he hits like this, you can play him anywhere.

Bryan (San Francisco): Robles top 5 prospect to start next year?
Ben Badler: Tough to unseat some of the guys ahead of him, but good chance he’s in the top 10.

Jose (NYC): Who projects as a better player Lewis Brinson or Aaron Judge and when are their ETA's?
Ben Badler: Brinson. Way more defensive value between the position and the quality of his glove, and I think he’s going to turn it on in the second half.

John (Lima, Peru): Any thoughts on Taylor Trammell?
Ben Badler: Like what I’ve heard so far. Good combination of hitting ability, athleticism and speed.

Ryan (Philly): What's the market for Jeremy Hellickson? Any way the Phillies could land a top 100 guy with the dearth of quality SP available?
Ben Badler: With the year he’s having and the lack of starting pitching on the trade market, a back-end Top 100 guy is at least a reasonable ask in case anyone bites, although getting a couple of prospects a tier or two below that might end up happening.

Mike (Atlanta): Which of the elite SS prospects in the NL East (Swanson, Crawford, Rosario) has the highest ceiling? Which has the highest floor?
Ben Badler: I’ll take Crawford on both. You could argue Rosario has the higher ceiling based on his defensive ability, but I don’t think Rosario will ever match Crawford’s on-base skills.

Neal (Indy): Are you down much on Anthony Alford? Still see the potential for a special player?
Ben Badler: I don’t want to crush a guy over 50 or so games, but he’s been one of the bigger disappointments this season. Can’t give up on that type of athleticism from a guy who up until now had a pretty good performance track record to go with it, but there haven’t been many encouraging signs to point to this season.

casey (Jackson): Hey Ben, thanks for letting us get in touch through these chats. Is there a difference between an ace and a frontline/#1 starter? those last two labels are always thrown around in scouting reports but I agree with you that there are few aces in the minors.
Ben Badler: An ace for me is someone whose true talent level separates him as one of the game’s elite handful of pitchers; Kershaw, Arrieta, Scherzer, Syndegaard, etc. Not every team has one of those. A frontline starter is someone who could pitch toward the top of the rotation for most clubs, which includes a lot more pitchers than the ones reserved for the truly elite label.

Ben Badler: Thanks for all the questions. We’ve got more midseason prospect update coverage coming next week, then our annual Best Tools lists, trade deadline coverage and league top 20s will be right around the corner. Have a great weekend.