Prospect Hot Sheet Chat (Aug. 12)

Moderator: BA’s Kyle Glaser will chat about the Prospect Hot Sheet at 2 p.m. Eastern

Matt (Va): How will Meija translate as a pro for the Indians?
Kyle Glaser: Hey everybody. We’ll start with this one given Mejia is the story of the minor leagues right now. Short version is, Mejia translates as a high average, everyday starting second or third baseman for the Indians as a pro. HR potential tops out at 8-10 right now, but the bat control is so good we’re talking about a perennial .300 hitter, possibly even a batting title contender in the .320, .330 range as he grows. As promising as he is at the plate, behind the plate it’s a bit of a mess. Blocking, receiving, framing, it’s all well below even adequate. let alone average. One good thing is his arm, which will allow him to transition to third base without an issue. Second is a strong possibility, pending the Indians’ needs at the time.

Brob (Rhode Island): How do the folks at BA feel now about Raimel Tapia? His stats are not good enough to make the hot sheet with only 3 games at AAA but he started the year batting about .215 and since mid May has to have one of the best batting averages in the minors. The defense and arm were never an issue. He is 5-12 with 4 runs at AAA and I think the worries about his swing can finally be dismissed. Is BA on board yet?
Kyle Glaser: I can’t speak for the rest of my coworkers, but I’m on board with Tapia and was last year when I watched him with Modesto and liked what I saw a lot. What he did in the Fall League, plus what he did at Double-A this year should put to rest the questions I know a few people had. We at BA had Tapia ranked in our midseason Top 100, so clearly he is moving up the board in the minds of all of our staffers.

satchel (las Vegas): Kyle, When do the Royals bring up Dozier? And what is up with Bubba Starling? Is ever going to live up to the hype? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: Dozier’s callup likely Sept. 1. No reason for him not to be up then when rosters expand. And the answer is no on Starling. After more than 500 games and 2,000 minor league plate appearances you know who you are, and what Starling is is an above-average athlete with below-average baseball skills. Not the first player like that, and certainly won’t be the last.

BK (Abbotsford, BC): I've seen reports on Richard Urena that peg him as a future utility man/backup MIF. Hasn't he shown enough hit tool in the minors to be more than that? He's had a fantastic year despite generally being younger than his peers.
Kyle Glaser: Before the year we had him projected as a future starter on a first-division team, and that is even stronger now that his strength, patience and contact ability have taken big leaps forward this season. He’s a future starter, although it might be at second base with his consistently error-prone ways at shortstop.

Derek (Boston): At this point, would you rather have Clint Frazier or Willy Adames and Christin Stewart
Kyle Glaser: Frazier. By a wide margin. This guy is a multiple-time All-Star on the verge of breaking in. Adames and Stewart have their gifts, but I really believe Frazier is a franchise cornerstone for many years to come.

Robert (New York): Kyle, Will Clint Frazier be an 2017 opening day OF for my Yanks? What present day AL OF would you compare him to offensively. Thanks for the vine.
Kyle Glaser: So as much as I like Frazier I don’t know if he’s in the opening day OF in 2017 He’s struggling right now in his first stint at Triple-A, and he’s still not even turning 22 until the end of this season. I think he’ll be up in the majors next season, I just don’t think it’ll be opening day. And from a pure offensive production standpoint, Adam Jones on the high end, Michael Brantley (when healthy) on the low end. He’s that good.

stacia (paris, FR): Kyle, Which scenario do you see playing out for Moncada: 1. Sept call up, cup of coffee 2. Sept call up, is a real contributor in 2016 3. no call-up Thanks
Kyle Glaser: September callup, cup of coffee. The Red Sox aren’t going to mess with the playing time of Pedroia or Ortiz in a pennant push, and while Travis Shaw has cooled off it’s not to the point where you’d bench him for a guy with only 40 or games above HiA under his belt. Moncada right now is a guy you bring in to come in and spell guys in the infield and get his first taste of the majors, not someone you rely on day in and day out in a pennant push. As talented as he is, he’s still a developing prospect not to that point yet.

Lou (Miami): What position do teams expect Lourdes Gurriel to settle into at the pro level?
Kyle Glaser: Third base, with left field as his secondary position

Albert (Murrietta): Could the Padres getting Matt Capps in the Andrew Cashner trade be one of the shrewdest moves of the trade deadline?
Kyle Glaser: Well I assume you mean Carter Capps, and yes that entire trade was very good for the Padres. With the Colin Rea-Luis Castillo aspect being cancelled out, the Padres got a major league starter (Cosart), one of baseball’s best relievers (Capps) and a top 100 prospect (Naylor) for half season of a guy who has been a well below-average ML starter for two years now in Cashner. The Padres have made a lot of questionable moves under the current regime, but this was not one of them.

tatum (clearwater, FL): Kyle, good talk so far. Let's add some velocity to this chat. When does Joe Jimenez get to Detroit and is he a future closer quickly, he is now in AAA? How does he compare to Edwin Diaz already up in Sea?
Kyle Glaser: Jimenez gets to Detroit in September, and he is the Tigers closer next season. Diaz’s slider is a better secondary pitch, and it’s hard to replicate just how ridiculously dominant he has been, but Jimenez absolutely is in the same vein of dominant, back-end closer very quickly

Peter (Toronto): Can Anthony Santander be a regular OF in the bigs or is he a 4th outfielder.
Kyle Glaser: Right now a reserve outfielder is more where he projects, but he’s a guy who keeps improving. The jump from HiA to AA is when an offensive prospect really begins to show his true colors, and if he makes that jump successfully we’ll reassess.

Dat Dude 2.0 (Trillsylvania): With the refined control and hugely improved approach, what is your ceiling for Franklyn Kilome? Are the secondary offerings quality enough to play as a front-line MLB SP?
Kyle Glaser: Absolutely a front line guy as a ceiling. The curveball is already a hammer that is an above average secondary offering, and a changeup that is coming along in the development process. More than stuff, the concern with him is just getting all of his limbs in sync. He’s up to 6-foot-7 now according to a scout at a recent game, and a lot of times pitchers that height struggle to get everything smoothed out in their delivery and have some control issues. He had the same problem but has cut his walks down significantly in his last few starts. He needs to continue that trend to reach that frontline SP ceiling, which is there but is a ways off

Satchel (Las Vegas): Kyle, In your opinion, what AL minor league starting pitcher possesses plus tools, and is flying under the radar, for whatever reason.....Someone who will sneak up in 2017 and make us all say, where was he in 2016? Peace
Kyle Glaser: Zack Littell in the Mariners org. Keep an eye on him. Was just 17 when drafted, getting bigger and stronger with better stuff every year, fills up the strike zone.

Matt (Nashville, TN): Where will Oscar de la Cruz end the season in the Cubs top 10? Any chance to sneak into the back end of the top 100 overall? Thoughts on the state of the Cubs lower level arms? de la Cruz and Cease have the obvious high end talent, but there do seem to be some interesting lower ranked arms (Patterson, Hedges, Clifton, Paulino) performing well.
Kyle Glaser: de la Cruz was the Cubs No. 8 prospect before this year and likely fits in around 4-5 in the system right now. What would prevent him from being a Top 100 guy is the fact he’s made only six starts this year. Hard to break into Top 100 without more of a track record, particularly with so many arms equally as good or better in the higher minors. If his health holds up through next year though, we’ll be having a different conversation. And regarding the rest of the system, Clifton in particular has a potentially bright future, and his breakout elevates the system’s pitching as a whole

Lou (Michigan): Has Derek Hill redeemed himself this year? What do you expect from him? Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: Not really. We always knew he was a guy who could fly but was questionable with the bat. Hitting .266/.312/.349 in your repeat season at LowA isn’t a redemption season, even taking injuries into account. Still way too much swing and miss for a guy who really needs to be a high contact, speed guy to make an impact. Honestly, I think it’s more likely he tops out in AA and is done in three years than making an impact in the majors.

Jorge Lopez (Biloxi): How long will the Brewers' AAA affiliate be in Colorado Springs? Any hope of moving before next year?
Kyle Glaser: It really depends on who else moves, and a lot of AAA clubs haven’t locked in their PDC contracts yet. The Brewers can move as much as they want, but it really depends equally as much on who else is moving and what relationships exist between franchises and affiliates, all of which is too much up in the air right now to make a definitive statement either way about how much longer they will be there

FIsher (wathena, ks): Kyle, some teams seem to grow pitching, TB one of them. Outside of Snell, which minor league starter will be the next impact arm. Impact meaning a 1,2,or 3 starter.
Kyle Glaser: Brent Honeywell. Number 2 or 3 starter. Could break into the majors next year, definitely 2018

Riley (Ft. Worth): In a dynasty league I traded Matt Chapman, Ozzie Albies and Sal Perez for Daniel Murphy, German Marquez, and Adalberto Mejia. Should I be upset with that return?
Kyle Glaser: No. Murphy still gives you 2-3 years of good production, while Marquez and Mejia should be quality ML arms within the next year or two. Chapman’s strikeout concerns and Albies’ step back into AA make it a fine return for you. I still think Chapman and Albies will good MLers, but from a fantasy perspective you’re OK

Joe (Tampa): Choose one to stash in fantasy based on a combination of upside and ETA: Yadier Alvarez, Hoskins, Francisco Mejia, Anthony Alford, Matt Chapman, or Jorge Alfaro?
Kyle Glaser: Alfaro. Gives you power as a catcher and stays behind the plate

Roger (Greenville, SC): Who are the current leading candidates for 1-1 for the 2017 draft? I know the BA watch list had 11 names, but has showcase season narrowed it further?
Kyle Glaser: Hunter Greene and Alex Faedo right now, but again, the leading candidate for 1-1 at this time last year was Jason Groome…a lot can change, don’t put much stock in 1-1 predictions right now

Robert (New York): Teoscar Hernandez was called up by the Stros, where do you see him in 2017? In the bigs, if given a full-time role, is a line of 10 hr, .260 avg, 30 steals reasonable? He has ran and raked between CC and Fresno.
Kyle Glaser: A lot of it will depend on what he shows here. Probably a fourth outfielder that gets a good amount of playing time, but he’s outperformed his projection at every level. I think the HRs are a little high and the average a little low, more a .270, 6-8 HR, 15-20 steal guy off the bench playing good OF defense in CF and RF. That’s valuable when building a ML roster, and nothing to sneeze at

Rick M. (Walnut Creek, CA): Better long-term Pitching prospect; Tyler Beede or Phil Bickford? What criteria went into the Brewers thinking of asking for Bickford? Did they like him more or was it just that Beede was off the table for them?
Kyle Glaser: In my opinion Bickford is the better long term guy, given he’s more than 2 years younger and gets more strikeouts while issuing fewer walks and has pitched better than Beede comparatively at the same levels. That said, we have no idea if Beede was off the table or who was asked for. Both are quality guys, I’m sure there was a lot of discussions on both sides

AJ (IL): How does Trevor Clifton stack up? Does he have a chance to be a starter at the MLB level?
Kyle Glaser: Yes. He’ll be climbing the Cubs prospect list next year, has a good chance to be starter in the majors, although he’s a ways off from that at present. The chance is there though

J (GA): Great stuff on Ian Anderson's debut! Is he a possible front of the rotation type guy for the Braves? Have his improvements in velocity/other areas shown that he was worth of the #3 pick talent-wise?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, he absolutely has No. 1 or 2 potential. The velocity, delivery, poise, secondary pitches and overall quality of stuff, combined with his age and body with a lot of room to add strength, make it easy to see what the Braves saw in making him the No. 3 pick.

Dan (B'more): If Wieters leaves, is Chance Sisco starting for the O's next year?
Kyle Glaser: Probably not. He’s coming along defensively but still needs work. Orioles would be better off bringing in someone on a short-term deal for a bridge year so Sisco can have one final, full season to do all he needs to do to get where he needs to be defensively.

Joe (Franklin TN): It seems Tyler Beede is back to his Vandy velo 93-97 with an improved curve ball, Does he have a shot at a Sept call up ?
Kyle Glaser: September callups almost always come from AAA, so I don’t know if I’d count on seeing Beede then (injuries at the ML-level could change this, of course).

Ranger Rob (Arlington): I was genuinely sorry to hear about Prince Fielder--one of baseballs truly great guys. But do you think that his injury opens up a spot for Joey Gallo, who seemed on his way out of Texas just weeks ago? Gallo seems to be hitting better in AAA.
Kyle Glaser: Yes, it does open up a spot for Gallo, although the Rangers really are doing just fine without him. He likely comes up in September, but I don’t think he plays a prominent role.

Max (Atlanta): How do you evaluate a player's initial return from Tommy John Surgery? Cal Quantrill and Brady Aiken had theirs at essentially the same time but Quantrill's stuff seems to be coming back much quicker.
Kyle Glaser: I look at setbacks and durability more than pure stuff – as defined by velo readings – -when evaluating a player’s initial return. Let’s not kid ourselves, TJ is a serious, major surgery that has a high re-injury rate, so a player taking it slow and not seeing a return of dominant stuff right away is OK. If he can’t make it thru 2 or 3 innings or keeps having to come out with “elbow discomfort” or any other euphemism for “his elbow hurts”, that’s much more concerning than anything on a radar gun in the immediate aftermath of a return

Roger (Greenville, SC): Shouldn't we expect Hansen to be dominant in short season ball? That the command is still scattershot makes me think this stretch doesn't mean much.
Kyle Glaser: We were just discussing this in the office the other day. With just how awful he was this year, we actually considered it a very pleasant surprise how good he has been. Just from a pure strike-throwing perspective, what he’s doing now compared to what he was doing before is impressive, Rookie ball or not. And you’re not wrong to be skeptical, it’s just the fact he had even this stretch was enough to impress given just how bad it all was this year

Nolan (Cleveland): SSS, but which under-the-radar players from the 2016 Draft had stood out the most so far?
Kyle Glaser: Cody Thomas, Dodgers 13th rounder from Oklahoma. Power, average, speed. Needs to cut down the strikeouts, but he’s worth keeping an eye on

Gordon Lightfood (Gitchagumee, MI): What in the hell are the Padres going to call up Hunter Renfroe? Jabari Blash, are you kidding me?
Kyle Glaser: A.J. Preller told us (reporters) on a conference call at the deadline they were going to wait until September to bring up Renfroe and Margot….as to why, I don’t have a good answer for you

Adrian (In a trailer at my moms house): What kind of prospect status does Bobby Bradley have? Is he just not highly regarded because of his defense? To me he seems to have some of the best power of anyone in the minors and patience at the plate also seems to be very good. Of course his hit tool is lacking and he strikes out a lot.
Kyle Glaser: Bradley was a Top 100 prospect preseason and midseason, so saying he’s not highly-regarded isn’t accurate. Even with his considerable power though, striking out at a 30.6 percent clip against HiA pitching is a huge red flag, (for comparison sake, even Joey Gallo struck out at 26 percent at HiA). The K’s will keep him from elite prospect status until he tamps those down. Everything else with him is secondary right now. He’s got to cut down the K’s

Doug (Sacramento): I'm a huge fan of Chapman and believe he has a bright future. What big league comp would you give him? A more powerful Scot Rolen is where I'm at.
Kyle Glaser: I like Chapman but Rolen is way too big of a stretch. Rolen was a borderline HOF who hit .302 in the minors and .280 in the majors. Chapman is hitting .247 in the minors. Think more along the lines of mid-career Troy Glaus (.255/.357/.506, 26 HR, 71 RBI per year from 2003-07) as Chapman’s upside at his peak, which is plenty good.

Tyler (San Diego): Luis Urias has been playing shortshop for the last several days. Any chance he could stick there? He's certainly having a much better season at the plate than Javier Guerra.
Kyle Glaser: No. Urias a very good prospect and frankly a better hitter than Guerra both now and in the future, but he’s a second baseman. Many minor league second baseman get a few games at SS when the regular SS gets hurt or needs a day off. Don’t read too much into it. He’s a second baseman pure and simple.

Ray (Shippensburg, PA): Travis Ott, LHP at Hudson Valley in the NY-Penn League, has allowed one earned run in 41 and two-thirds innings. His numbers are off the chart. He could well be the starting pitcher in Tuesday's all-star game. I realize you generally don't dip into short season teams when choosing the Hot Sheet, but what if anything can you tell us about he and his future?
Kyle Glaser: I wouldn’t read much into it. He’s in his fourth professional season and in Short-Season A ball, the third straight year he’s pitched at that level.

Josh (Toronto): How would you track these players from an offensive standpoint if you were to project their MLB careers: Alex Verdugo Josh Bell Jake Bauers Matt Chapman
Kyle Glaser: Chapman and Bell lots of power but lots of strikeouts. Largely power/swing-and-miss guys. Bauers is less power but higher average, Verdugo is the best pure hitter of all of them and the one I expect to have the longest and most well-rounded MLB career.

T.J Friedl (Billings,Mt): How was my week?
Kyle Glaser: Fantastic, although as a college guy in playing in the insanely hitter-friendly Pioneer League against 18 year olds, it should have been

Dale (SF): I know I might be pushing my luck but 3 HR this week and I think 7 in last games where's the love for Renato Nunuz. Love these chats. Thanks!
Kyle Glaser: I looked long and hard at him. Decided to go with some other guys who had big weeks as well but Nunez absolutely was worthy.

Brad (Mississippi): What do you think of Austin Hedges' season? Is it a product of the PCL, or is the bat for real?
Kyle Glaser: Little bit of both. He’s not really a .346 AVG, .686 SLG guy, but he’s made significant gains in his pitch recognition, strength, swing path and overall approach at the plate. He’s gone from a guy with a very real .235 Lou Marson profile to a .265 Brad Ausmus profile, possibly more. It’s a credit to him and the work he’s put in

Alec Hansen (White Sox): Do I make the top 100 prospect list this offseason after I've dominated so far in the minors?
Kyle Glaser: No. Do this in a full season league, then we’ll talk

DodgerDave (SFV): Cody Bellinger looks great and ready for the majors. What do you think the Dodgers will do with him with Adrian at 1B. Keep, move position, trade?.
Kyle Glaser: Bellinger is very good, but you’re being overoptimistic saying he’s ready for the majors. Still has a lot of work to do in making consistent contact against quality pitching (see, .255 batting average and 87-point drop in slugging percentage) and is still very much in the developmental process. He will replace Adrian at first one day, but Bellinger is still a full year away from the majors and will need time to acclimate himself once there. Adrian’s contract runs thru 2018. Bellinger will take over there for him once the contract ends

Rick (SC): You tweeted about Ramon Osuna's big homer. Was there anything noteworthy about his play at first base? He has five errors in just 24 games.
Kyle Glaser: Yes actually, I’m glad you mentioned that. He made two very nice scoops at first and had a very impressive stretch on a wild throw that should have taken him off the bag, but didn’t. Again, he’s a college guy in rookie ball, but there’s enough there he’s worth keeping an eye on

Bob (San diego): Who does Reyes' upside compare to? Will he be in the rotation at the start next year for St Louis?
Kyle Glaser: His absolute upside is Justin Verlander, although the control issues are serious enough to prevent that. And yes, he should be in the rotation to start next year for the Cardinals

Sausage (St. Louis): With Molina's decline in offensive and defensive production could we see Carson Kelly in the bigs next year? and what role would he have? something similar to the molina/matheny role when molina first came up?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, very much a real possibility breaks into the majors next year, likely as Molina’s backup at first before slowly moving into a timeshare role if Molina struggles. And yes, Kelly is a defense first catcher whose offense will need some time to blossom

Ken (Northern California): What is your long term scouting potential of Braves Lhp Joey Wentz?
Kyle Glaser: He’s a potential front of the rotation lefthander, but that’s if everything goes right and no injuries hit, etc, which is never a given with a teenage pitcher. Even if bumps in the road hit, you’re still looking at a quality back of the rotation lefty. Again, though, there’s a good 4-5 years, probably longer, before any of this comes to fruition

Daniel (Brooklyn, NY): Miguel Andujar has roughly split his season between High A and Double A. Where does he start next season and would he be an improvement over Headley by mid-year?
Kyle Glaser: He starts next year in Triple-A. And yes, he likely is an improvement over Headley by middle of next year

Mickey (Anaheim): What are the Angels planning to do with Alex Meyer? Seems like Minnesota couldn't make up their mind about whether he's a starter or a bullpen arm.
Kyle Glaser: They’ll give him a shot to start, but the health of his shoulder will play a factor in that.

Jim (Berlin, NJ): What's the player development strategy behind having Victor Robles rehab his hand injury back in the GCL?
Kyle Glaser: Guys go back to GCL/AZL all the time for first few games injury rehab. That’s the process with everyone. Nothing out of the ordinary.

Vinny (Newark): How does one cope with the shrewdness of the Yankees in buying low on abuser Aroldis Chapman and then selling him high a few months later and reaping the benefits? Should they be lauded for their process or is it still okay for me to be angry they acquired him in the first place?
Kyle Glaser: You have the right to be angry they acquired him. It’s the constant battle sports teams – and really, a lot of businesses – deal with, wanting a person’s professional talents but at what cost potentially with personal conflicts or legal issues. I definitely wouldn’t “laud” the Yankees process to use your word, but I think you can acknowledge the move they made from a strictly baseball sense, if that makes sense. Again though, that doesn’t preclude you or anyone else from being angry or upset with the Yankees for acquiring Chapman in the first place

Nick (Montreal): What can you tell me about Juan Soto? Great stats so far.
Kyle Glaser: He’s a very, very gifted contact hitter from the lefthand side with power projection. Corner outfielder who will go as far as his bat will take him, which has a chance to be considerably far

Joshua (West palm beach,fl): What is Luis Castillo ceiling for the Marlins and is he close to be a top 100 prospect. Thank you
Kyle Glaser: Ceiling is a mid-rotation to back end starter. And he’s talented, but not close to a top 100 prospect

Nick C (NJ): What should Mets know about David Thompson? He had a great week this week and could he be the future 3B for Mets?
Kyle Glaser: Very athletic kid who was recruited to be a QB at Miami and went there as a two-sport guy before dropping football to focus on baseball. Good athlete, good track record against good competition, adjusting well as he moves up levels…there is a lot to like. And yes, he has a chance to be the Mets 3B of the future, but its not a definite. Still has to work on cutting down strikeouts and turning some of those doubles into home runs

Browning Nagle (Louisville, KY): Has Dansby Swanson showed enough this year in the minors to warrant a starting job out of camp? Or do you think the Braves give him some AAA time next year?
Kyle Glaser: No. Hitting .261 in Double-A, no matter what else you show, isn’t ready for the majors. He’ll start in AAA next year and go from there. Excellent prospect, not ready yet

Jasen M. (Pleasant Hill, CA): Are there any current Prospects in the Giants system that project as future All Stars at the big league level? Christian Arroyo perhaps? Chris Shaw?
Kyle Glaser: Not really no. Shaw and Arroyo are really the only everyday guys in their system, while Beede and Coonrod and Blach should all make for quality pitchers, but none of those guys you look at and say All-Star future

Matt (Virginia): Hopefully you get to my question..What do you think of Brent Honeywell? He has had great success at every level so far and at a young 21 is shredding AA with the Biscuits. Young is the key here, but the raw stuff is impressive. Ceiling? ETA?
Kyle Glaser: He’s absolutely a quality future SP, No. 2 or 3 is ceiling. I’d put 2018 ETA, but it wouldn’t shock me if he beats it and gets a midseason callup next year. That will do it for today everyone. Thanks for chatting and hope you all have a great weekend