GCL Top 20 Prospects Chat

Ben Badler: Welcome! Yesterday was emotionally draining, so while I can’t say I’m as fired up as usual, I do love talking about prospects at the lowest levels of the minors, and I see there’s already a ton of good questions in the queue on guys who made the list and some of the key under-the-radar names to know. So thanks for joining us—let’s get started.

Proswagonist (Liberl): Any Astros nearly made the list? It seems they had quite a few pitchers with power arms but were quickly promoted.
Ben Badler: One of those players they promoted quickly, Jorge Alcala, came close to making the list, and you will probably see him in the Prospect Handbook. He’s 20, so he’s a little bit older than most of the top prospects in the GCL, but it’s a big-time fastball up to 97 mph, the breaking ball misses bats and his control took a significant step forward. The Astros have been doing a nice job of adding Latin American arms to the lower levels of the system with pitchers like Franklin Perez and Albert Abreu, and Jorge Guzman regularly blowing up triple digits on the radar gun. Alcala isn’t at the Perez/Abreu level, but he’s definitely one to watch.

dennis (st louis): is dennis ortega from the cards legit? supposedly a defense first catcher but he hit .357 with 7sb and more walks than Ks.
Ben Badler: Ortega came very close to making the list. He’s a bigger-framed catcher but he’s athletic and agile for his size, he receives well and he has a plus arm. He’ll stick behind the plate and he should play the position well. Offensively, he never stood out much in games until this year, but he’s developed a good hitting approach, he understands the strike zone and he was one of the more difficult hitters in the league to strike out. My concern is that this was the first season he’s ever done much offensively at the plate, and for a guy who doesn’t hit the ball all that hard and doesn’t run well, his numbers were driven by a near .400 BABIP. I do think he’s going to get stronger and that’s going to help the power develop, so if he goes to the Midwest League and has a great year at the plate, he could soar way up the Cardinals’ top 30 in the Prospect Handbook. Plus he’s a young catcher, so there’s a ton on his plate to learn defensively during his first couple of years in pro ball, and with Latin American catchers, there’s even more to handle between learning a new language, a new country and having to communicate with English-speaking pitchers for the first time. So this could very well be the beginnings of an offensive breakout for Ortega.

chuck (stl): i know it's way to early to really know, but based on this year what could alvaro seijas' ceiling look like? is a #2 starter with a 65FB 60CU 55CH 60CTL reasonable?
Ben Badler: I’m not expecting another jump on his fastball, so I’d just go with plus on that pitch, but the rest of that is definitely reasonable.

Dan (Western MD): Might Juan Soto begin next year in Hagerstown? How does his development compare to Robles at the same stage?
Ben Badler: Yes, he almost certainly will start in the South Atlantic League next year. He’s a completely different player than Robles though. Soto is a more polished hitter than Robles was at the same age, both in terms of his swing and his approach, but he’s just an ordinary athlete at best on a corner, while Robles is one of the best athletes in the game with premium tools outside of the batter’s box.

Ted (Charlotte): If Ian Anderson had qualified, where would he have ranked in the GCL rankings?
Ben Badler: I would have put him right behind Mickey Moniak.

Barry (Atlanta): What are your thoughts about Randy Ventura and would you consider him to be a top thirty prospect for the Braves ?
Ben Badler: Ventura is an easy 80 runner. Put him in a race against Pache or Cruz and Ventura’s going to win that one. He’s a little guy who puts the ball in play, mostly on the ground, and relies on his speed to carry him. He could develop into a player along the lines of Luis Durango, with the hope that there’s more offensive upside in there to stick around the big leagues longer. The Braves have one of the deepest farm systems in the game, maybe the deepest, so that’s a difficult top 30 to crack.

Paul (FL): Any GCL Braves prospects you like that didn't make the list besides Pache, Cruz, Muller and Anderson?
Ben Badler: Bryse Wilson, their fourth-round pick this year, had a terrific debut and got some consideration for the back of the list. He was topping out at 97, the slider is inconsistent but he snapped off some quality ones in flashes, he’s athletic and filled the strike zone. There’s a lot of scouts who see reliever risk with him, but that’s a good arm to be able to add where the Braves got him in the draft.

John (Philly): How would you compare Sixto Sanchez to Franklyn Kilome and Adonis Medina at the same stage?
Ben Badler: I would put Sanchez ahead of both of them at the same stage. Sanchez is 18, and Kilome only signed when he was 18 and debuted in the GCL at 19. But even in the GCL, Kilome was more about size, arm speed and physical projection, with a fastball that was up to 95. Sanchez is already sitting around the mid-90s and touching the upper-90s, with two secondary pitches he can use to get swing-and-miss. Medina had more weapons than Kilome did when he was in the GCL, but Sanchez’s stuff across the board is a little more electric, he commands it better and he’s a better athlete than Medina.

Vic (St charles, MO): I saw several reports from the draft that Delvin Perez had power potential as he fills out. He showed virtually no power this year, is it a result of getting off PEDs or does he just need strength?
Ben Badler: It’s complicated. I don’t have enough information to quantify how much of an effect the PED that Perez reportedly tested positive for had on his power, but I do know he wasn’t showing over-the-fence pop either in games or in BP after he signed. I don’t expect Perez will develop into a major home run threat, but he’s 17 with a lot of room to add size and strength, which combined with his bat speed should lead to more power.

Rich (NJ): Do you feel Mickey Moniak has shown enough to be assigned to Lakewood in Low A to begin next season? Thanks
Ben Badler: Definitely. If there’s a first-round pick out of high school this year who isn’t going to Low-A next year, that’s problematic. But Moniak is polished enough that, if the Phillies want to push him, he might even be a candidate to finish the year in High-A, like the Astros did with Kyle Tucker this year.

Tyler (Harrodsburg, KY): Juan Soto really emerged as not only a top international bat, but perhaps one of the most promising young bats in the MiLB. Does he crack the BA top 50 in February, and what is his ceiling?
Ben Badler: Probably not a top 50 guy this year, but I do think he will be in the Top 100, with a chance to become a top 50 prospect if he continues to rake next year.

FC (New York): Aside from Bo Bichette, was there any other blue jays that impressed?
Ben Badler: Bichette was the best of that group by far. Kevin Vicuna is a sleeper because of his smooth defense at shortstop and he did show signs of progress as a hitter this year, but it’s still a very light bat overall right now.

Matt (Internet): The Phillies seem to churn out breakout Latin pitching prospects every year in the GCL. What has led to their success on not just guys like Sanchez (and Kilome/Medina before him) but second tier guys like Mauricio Llovera this year?
Ben Badler: They have a great international scouting director in Sal Agostinelli (you can go back to guys like Carlos Carrasco, etc. to see his track record), they have a good scouting system in place and they have the people on the ground who know what to look for when they’re out seeing players. Even the Phillies would tell you there’s a lot of luck involved in signing a guy like Sixto Sanchez given how they signed him, and I think every team will tell you there’s a good amount of luck involved when it comes to some of their own best low-dollar signings. But in Latin America, you can also create your own luck and increase your probability of finding a pitcher like Sanchez for cheap—and there are plenty of good arms who sign for low bonuses—by having good area scouts and supervisors on the ground in countries like the DR and Venezuela. That creates more opportunities to find that hidden gem, and when you have good evaluators in place, they can capitalize when they see a pitcher like Sanchez and realize, hey, this is a guy we need to make sure doesn’t leave here without signing.

John (NC): How does the talent level of the GCL compare this season to last where it seemed very high?
Ben Badler: Overall, I thought last year was better. The top tier talent in the league this year was good, especially in the top 10, since all of those players were first-rounders, international players who were the equivalent of first-rounders and Bo Bichette, whose bat I just love. Beyond that, I thought there was a wider spread in talent in the league this year and better talent in the 11-20 range last year.

Dave (Brooklyn): Hey, Ben. Thanks for the Chat time! How do you, scouts and Marlins view James Nelson Ryan's age 18 first pro season in the GCL? Does he project to have enough pop to develop into an MLB 3B? Could he move back to SS if the pop doesn't show up, or is he a 'tweener'?
Ben Badler: Nelson is an interesting sleeper. 15th-round pick, signed for just $75,000, but he has a sound swing with quick hands at the plate, he’s a good fastball hitter and generally shows a good hitting approach and a knack for making adjustments. The power does have to come around, but for where the Marlins got him in the draft and the price they paid to sign him, that’s a nice pickup for them, and given the state of their farm system, I wouldn’t be surprised if he jumped into the Prospect Handbook this year.

Snapper Bean (Greater Kensington): Between Moniak (6.1), Gowdy (3.5), Ortiz (4.1), Stobbe (1.1), Stephen (750K), Brito (650k), etc., I am thinking that there is a chance that the 2016 GCL Phillies are the most expensive GCL team in history?
Ben Badler: Ha! I hadn’t that about that, although maybe the Braves will topple them next year.

Matt Steele (Toronto): What are your thoughts on Bo Bichette? Do you think he can stick in the middle infield or is a position change likely?
Ben Badler: I love Bo Bichette’s bat. I don’t expect him to play shortstop, but I don’t think it’s going to matter. He has electric bat speed, the barrel gets to the hitting zone quickly and stays there for a long time, his approach is good for his age and the ball comes off his bat with plus power. He got pitched around a lot in high school, so I think a lot of high-level decision makers didn’t get enough looks at him this spring. But whether he ends up at second or third base, he has so many good attributes you want to see in a young hitter.

Lance (Memphis): Any interesting Mets in the GCL this year?
Ben Badler: They had quite a few names that came up on the periphery of the Top 20, either guys who performed well but didn’t have big tools, or toolsy types who didn’t hit well. The two catchers they had, Carlos Sanchez and Juan Uriarte are both interesting, but the biggest tools guy on the team was Ranfy Adon. Terrific athlete, great runner, strong arm, highly projectable body and the raw power is in there, but the bat is still very much a project. If you take 20 players like him, maybe one or two will end up panning out, but if the light bulb ever goes on at the plate, the raw tools he already has in place could make it exciting.

Frankk (Philly): How does age figure into your appraisals? Some of the teams seemed to have quite a few older players for this league. Your selections consist entirely of younger players.
Ben Badler: Age is part of the equation, but ultimately it’s about talent and projected future talent. In the GCL, most of the players who rank on the list are going to be teenagers, since teams largely send their best college draft picks to more advanced levels like the New York-Penn, Northwest, Appy or Pioneer leagues, and use the complex leagues like the GCL and AZL for their high school draft picks and young international prospects.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Does Austin Franklin look like a shrewd pickup by the Rays at this point? Has his solid command since signing improved his stock at all? Or is this pretty much what we ought to have expected from Franklin to begin with?
Ben Badler: I think Franklin was a great pick where the Rays got him. With the benefit of GCL hindsight, I liked him better than quite a few players who went ahead of him in the second round. I don’t expect a frontline starter, but he has all the attributes to project as a starting pitcher and what he showed in his pro debut both in terms of stuff and performance was encouraging. Easton McGee and Zach Trageton aren’t at the same level, but those are two more arms who could turn into nice values based on where the Rays got them in the draft too.

Yanks19 (New York, NY): Granted Nelson Gomez had a disappointing year hitting under .200. However, did he receive much consideration for this list due to the now in game power?
Ben Badler: You can’t miss his raw power, and it showed up in games when he ran into a fastball over the plate, but the approach he showed this year is worrisome, especially for someone with first base risk factors.

Frankk (Philly): Any opinion on the best catching prospect in GCL?
Ben Badler: Dennis Ortega with the Cardinals.

Greg (Atlanta): What's the upside for Derian Cruz and Cristian Pache? Has there been any surprise at how quickly they've adjusted stateside?
Ben Badler: Their reports are up, but I am surprised with how well Pache hit as a 17-year-old after moving up to the Appy League. Most of his peers are still in the DSL, and when you push 17-year-olds to the GCL, it’s understandable if they struggle there in their first season. But Pache hit well in both leagues and didn’t slow down at all in August when a lot of kids get tired after their first year getting used to the long grind of the season.

Eric Rodriguez (Puerto Rico): Delvin Perez is the best prospect of Puerto Rico since Carlos Correa?
Ben Badler: He is, and I like the value the Cardinals got with where they drafted Perez, but I hope people don’t have expectations that Perez is Carlos Correa 2.0, because he’s just not nearly as advanced at the plate as Correa was at the same age.

Das (Hawaii): Mauricio Llovera (7-1) and Nick Fanti (7-0) both seemed to have fantastic seasons, are they getting overlooked because Sixto Sanchez is just that much better?
Ben Badler: They both elevated their prospect status this year, they just weren’t good enough to make the Top 20. Llovera has a plus fastball that’s been up to 96 and he backs it up with a plus breaking ball. His command was scattered early in the year but he improved his strike-throwing ability this season, which helped him take a big step forward, but the scouts I spoke with saw high reliever risk there. Fanti was a nice late-round sign, doesn’t have big stuff but he can get the fastball into the low-90s, used the breaking ball to get strikeouts and kept hitters off balance with his pitchability.

Fred (GA): I know you said Ian Anderson just missed qualifying for the list, but do you see him as having ace upside? What are the thoughts on him after his first time in pro ball?
Ben Badler: I put the ace label on very few minor league pitchers, but I do think he can be a No. 2 or 3 starter. The report our draft guys wrote up on him pegged him well, but beyond that, what stood out the most during his brief pro debut was just how easily he did things on the mound. There’s a lot of ease to the operation, calmness and control do his game to go with the obvious stuff he has coming out of his hand.

Mike (Virginia): It was a pretty light year for the GCL Red Sox prospect-wise...any other interesting players besides Cedrola?
Ben Badler: That was about it for them. Jason Groome only threw four innings there, so he didn’t qualify. Probably won’t be much better next year either given what MLB did to their international program.

Matt H (Houston): Was Jorge Guzman close to making the cut? How does he compare to Albert Abreu at this time last year?
Ben Badler: Guzman fell just short of the playing time cutoff. He has one of the biggest fastballs in the minors, but Abreu has better secondary pitches to round out his repertoire.

Bobby (Newport): So the Appy and Pioneer leagues are more advanced than the GCL? I've never had a good feel for how these short season leagues fit together. How much lower, would you say, the level of competition is in the GCL than those other leagues? For instance, is the numbers Jahmai Jones put up in the Pioneer league more impressive than what Bo Bichette did in the GCL? Thanks!
Ben Badler: The Appalachian and Pioneer leagues are sort of a hybrid between the Rookie-level complex leagues in the AZL and GCL and the short-season Northwest and New York-Penn Leagues. Some organizations, like the Rockies, use the Pioneer League as their lowest level rookie league, while the Twins use their Appy League team the way other clubs treat their NY-Penn affiliate, so those two leagues end up with a weird amalgamation of talent levels. But generally, those leagues have players who are a little more advanced (in terms of present ability, not necessarily prospect status) than the AZL and GCL. But the Pioneer League is also an extreme offensive environment, so there’s always context that has to be put in place there as well.

Ben Badler: Thanks for all the questions. We have more rankings, scouting reports and chats for a different league every day the next two weeks, so loads more good stuff on the way for BA subscribers. Enjoy the rest of the day.