Ask BA: Who Are The Minors’ 100 MPH Pitchers?

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Q: Astros’ Jorge Guzman‘s fastball can hit 104. Red Sox’ Michael Kopech FB can hit 105. Can anyone else in MiLB who can match them?

Matt H Houston

BA: We haven’t heard 104 for Guzman, but we have heard 100-101 for him and Kopech famously touched 105 mph on the team’s radar gun, although scouts who were at the game say he topped out at 100-101 on their guns. He’s been reported to have touched 103 in other outings. He’s been “limited” to 101.5 in the Arizona Fall League. Both do rank among the minors’ hardest throwers, a group that also has to include Mariners’ righthander Thyago Vieira (up to 104 mph in the Arizona Fall League).

The velocity in the game gets crazier year after year. At the big league level, the average big league fastball has jumped from 89.0 mph in 2002 to 92.3 mph in 2015 (according to Baseball Information Solutions as listed at Fangraphs.com). These velocity gains are seen across the board. Sliders have jumped from 80 to 84 mph over the same time frame and so have changeups.

Have a question for Ask BA? Tweet it to J.J. (@jjcoop36) or email it to askba@baseballamerica.com.

Source: Baseball Info Solutions data at Fangraphs.com

And the velocity gains have been steady. Fastball velocity has either stayed the same or improved in 14 of the past 15 seasons. The only exception was a .2 mph dip from 2006 to 2007. Year to year, fastball velocity is increasing at roughly .2 mph per year. Starters have seen their velocity increase by 3.3 mph over those 15 seasons. Relievers have seen a 3.1 mph jump. So far, have been no signs that this steady increase is slowing.

This year two pitchers (Aroldis Chapman and Mauricio Cabrera) averaged 100 mph with their fastballs. Before this season, only one pitcher (Chapman in 2014) had done once during the 15 years BIS has collected velocity data or the 10 years of the Pitch/FX era.

If you’re asking why this increase is happening, I’d largely put it on improved physical training. Long-tossing, throwing with weighted balls and improved techniques for strengthening shoulders have both reduced shoulder injuries and increased velocity almost across the board.

More velocity is on the way. Marlins’ 2014 first-round pick Tyler Kolek became only the second high school draftee to consistently hit 100 mph while still in high school. Rockies’ 2016 first-round pick Riley Pint went a little further, touching 102 mph while still in high school. Next year’s draft class includes multiple pitchers who have touched 98-99 mph during the summer showcase circuit who may reach 100 mph next spring.

This year, 31 big league pitchers touched 100 mph (according to Pitch/FX data). In the minors, the numbers were even larger. This is not by any means a complete list and it surely will grow over the next few weeks as we continue to report for our prospect lists, but here are 71 (updated on Nov. 17) minor leaguers who touched 100 mph this year according to scouts, front office officials or available Pitch/FX data. The last time we did this in 2014, we tracked 52 minor leaguers who had thrown 100-plus that season.

We’ll keep adding to this as we continue to get reliable data on members of the century club. Have someone to add? Tweet it to me @jjcoop36, email it to jjcooper@baseballamerica.com or send it to me on Facebook.

Player	Team	Velo
Keynan Middleton	Angels	100
Francis Martes	Astros	100
Jorge Guzman	Astros	103
Bobby Wahl	Athletics	100
Frankie Montas	Athletics	102
Luis Mora	Braves	100
Mauricio Cabrera	Braves	102
Alex Reyes	Cardinals	101
Ryan Helsley	Cardinals	100
Sandy Alcantara	Cardinals	100
Dylan Cease	Cubs	101
Drew Muren	Diamondbacks	100
Julio Perez	Diamondbacks	100
Yadier Alvarez	Dodgers	101
Jeff Soptic	Giants	100
Melvin Adon	Giants	100
Ray Black	Giants	102
Reyes Moronta	Giants	100
Rodolfo Martinez	Giants	103
Casey Weathers	Indians	100
Aneurys Zabala	Mariners	100
Dan Altavilla	Mariners	100
Luiz Gohara	Mariners	101
Thyago Vieira	Mariners	104
Andy Beltre	Marlins	100
Bryan Ellington	Marlins	100
Jose Adames	Marlins	100
Luis Castillo	Marlins	101
Tayron Guerrero	Marlins	101
Tyler Kinley	Marlins	100
Tyler Kolek	Marlins	101
Chris Viall	Mets	101
Koda Glover	Nationals	100
Reynaldo Lopez	Nationals	100
Tanner Scott	Orioles	100
Andres Munoz	Padres	100
Jose Torres	Padres	100
Alberto Tirado	Phillies	100
Taylor Hearn	Pirates	100
Connor Sadzeck	Rangers	100
Diego Castillo	Rays	101
Jose Alvarado	Rays	100
Ryne Stanek	Rays	100
Gerson Bautista	Red Sox	100
Michael Kopech	Red Sox	103
Josh Pennington	Red Sox	100
Ariel Hernandez	Reds	100
Braulio Ortiz	Reds	101
Tony Santillan	Reds	101
Julian Fernandez	Rockies	103
Salvador Justo	Rockies	100
Riley Pint	Rockies	102
Andrew Edwards	Royals	100
Josh Staumont	Royals	102
Adam Ravenelle	Tigers	101
Gerson Moreno	Tigers	100
Sandy Baez	Tigers	100
Wladimir Punto	Tigers	100
Fernando Romero	Twins	100
Pat Light	Twins	100
Yorman Landa	Twins	100
Zack Burdi	White Sox	102
Anyelo Gomez	Yankees	100
Ben Heller	Yankees	100
Daris Vargas	Yankees	100
Dillon Tate	Yankees	100
Domingo Acevedo	Yankees	100
Domingo German	Yankees	100
Freicer Perez	Yankees	100
J.P. Feyereisen	Yankees	100
Luis Medina	Yankees	100

UPDATED Nov. 17: Added Twins RHP Yorman Landa.

UPDATED Nov. 10: Added Marlins RHP Tyler Kinley.

UPDATED Nov. 3: Added Giants RHPs Reyes Moronta and Jeff Soptic, Diamondbacks RHP Drew Muren, Mets RHP Chris Viall and Red Sox RHP Josh Pennington.

UPDATED Nov. 2: Added Yankees RHP Domingo German, Nationals RHP Koda Glover and Pirates LHP Taylor Hearn. Bumped Montas’ top velocity to 102.

UPDATED Nov. 1: Added Marlins RHPs Tyler Kolek (100-101 in spring training before Tommy John surgery) and Tayron Guerrero and Indians RHP Casey Weathers to the list.