Red Sox Top 10 Prospects Chat

Alex Speier stopped by to answer Red Sox questions

Grant (NYC): How close was it between Moncada and Benintendi for the #1 spot?
Alex Speier: Extremely, extremely close — there was a lot of division in the scouting and player evaluation community on it, and I went back-and-forth multiple times. I had a lot of exchanges with BA editors, especially John Manuel, as we tried to settle on 1 and 1A.

Frank (Indianapolis, IN): How many of the top 10 could you see making the BA 100? (We realize you don't get to vote, so please speculate for us.)
Alex Speier: I’d guess 5 — Benintendi and Moncada will be very near the top, Devers and Kopech are no-brainers, and I think Groome is virtually certainly to make the list as well. Though, as you point out, that’s pure speculation — I’m not party to those conversations from the Stonecutters!

Brian (Boston, MA): What were evaluators' opinions of Josh Ockimey's year? Does he do anything better than Sam Travis, or is he likely to be trade bait in the coming years?
Alex Speier: He certainly shows more present power and a higher power ceiling than Travis. There’s the possibility that his hit tool develops to average or, depending on who you talk to, even above-average, in which case the bat could give him a shot to make it in Boston, but it wouldn’t come as much surprise if he did end up becoming a trade candidate. Put another way, I’d be surprised if the Sox viewed either Travis or Ockimey as deal-breakers.

Eric (Hartford, CT): Did C.J. Chatham make any iterations of your list? Thoughts on the Sox's choice to draft him where they did?
Alex Speier: I don’t think anyone viewed him as a top-10 guy, but he’s not too far from that group. He has the glove/arm to play a very good SS, with the potential for J.J. Hardy-style upside. Given the scarcity of college SSs, that sort of potential represents a solid get in the second round…at least in theory. Check back in five years to figure out if that holds!

Sam (Washington DC): Who are you higher on between Shaun Anderson and Mike Shawaryn, and why?
Alex Speier: Shawaryn and it’s not close: Starter potential.

Ryan (Newton, Mass): I assume Brian Johnson is still prospect eligible. Has his stock fallen for you since this time last year?
Alex Speier: Johnson’s prospect stock has gone down, but that’s secondary to more fundamental issues of his well-being. It took enormous courage for him to step away from the game and seek help for anxiety. He got back and showed improvements…but his stuff was clearly down from where it had been when ended up at (I think) No. 6 last year. So, he fell out of the top 10, but if his stuff comes back with a normal offseason, he could be a very valuable member of the 2017 Red Sox.

Grant (NYC): With the X-man entrenched at short, are Marrero and Marco likely trade bait? Who is the better bat?
Alex Speier: I’ve heard a growing belief that Marrero is a change-of-scenery candidate. Hernandez represents valuable utility depth, though once Dubon can insure Holt in the superutility role, he might be more valuable as a trade piece, since there are teams who view him as a potential everyday guy.

Tim (Boston): Any other players off that Lowell team get consideration? Seems to be some diamonds in the rough on that squad.
Alex Speier: A lot of people rave about Pennington’s arm. Aybar is pretty interesting as a potential cluster of tools that may coalesce into something good down the road.

Warren (New London): I see why the Red Sox are trying it, but Moncada doesn't strike me as a good fit for 3B. If he is too error-prone to play there, what do they do with him? Or am I wrong?
Alex Speier: I don’t agree. He’s got great quick-twitch actions that work well when playing closer to the plate and a heck of an arm. They do need him to clean up his fundamentals, but great athletes are capable of doing that — as he’s already showed with his progress at 2B.

Alex (Miami): Thank you for taking my question, Yankory Pimentel and Victor Diaz are top arms in the system (besides Kopech) they are top 20 prospects do you agree?
Alex Speier: Diaz made a considerable impression as the year progressed. Pimentel remains all arm-strength without the secondary stuff to really cement prospect status.

Brett (Maryland): Benintendi's overall package seems an awful lot like fellow diminutive Red Sox Mookie Betts. Power/Speed/Hit tools in seem similar. With the obvious caveat that it's dangerous to comp prospects to MVP candidates, do you think that's an appropriate model for Beni's upside?
Alex Speier: I’d hesitate before comping anyone to Betts, but certainly, the same idea crossed my mind: Elite hit tool, shocking power for the size (though I’d bet on more modest HR totals than Betts exhibited in 2016), though with less speed which means a bit less impact in defensive range and SBs. So, not quite Betts, but Betts lite — with a comparable hit tool — is a pretty special player.

Connor (Wallingford, CT): Quick question on some former top prospects - at this point, who do evaluators see more likely to turn things around - Brian Johnson or Henry Owens?
Alex Speier: I didn’t have many discussions about Owens since he lost prospect eligibility in 2015, but based on strike-throwing/repeatability of delivery, it’s Johnson right now.

Mike (Akron, OH): Not a current prospect, but one who just graduated. Do the Red Sox see Blake Swihart as primarily a catcher going forward, or is his future going to be in the outfield?
Alex Speier: TBD. Right now, with Vazquez, they’re well-served to cultivate both, much as the Cubs have done with Schwarber and Contreras.

Jason (Boston): Chandler Shepherd posted some pretty solid numbers this year - 2.81 ERA, 0.94 WHIP, 8.7 K/9, 3.44 K/BB - but I haven't heard much about him. Does he have the stuff to be a high leverage reliever or no?
Alex Speier: Accurate description. More likely he’s more of a 6th/7th inning guy based on the absence to this point of plus pitches in his arsenal. But there’s a lot of conviction around the industry that he’s a big leaguer.

Sam (Arlington): Nick Longhi continues to make steady--but no spectacular--progress through the Red Sox system. I felt his average, walks, doubles and RBI's were pretty good Salem. But the power isn't there for a 1B, what's your opinion of him?
Alex Speier: You hit the nail on the head. His hit tool is very good — not Sam Travis good, but very good — but as a 1B/LF guy, he’ll likely need to make considerable strides with his power to really gain prospect momentum. Still, he’s so young that it would be a mistake to dismiss the possibility that he can do just that.

Jeff (Rhode Island): Obviously Benintendi proved a lot in the big leagues this year. How much did Moncada's struggles sway you down? Pitch recognition looks non-existent.
Alex Speier: I didn’t really pay attention to Moncada’s K rate in the big leagues as much as in Double A. That said, it’s worth noting that he had a very reasonable K rate in Salem before that promotion. So, that and Benintendi’s excellence in the big leagues did a lot to sway enough people with whom I talked to lead me to Benintendi at No. 1 — though, as I said, it was close.

Norm Chouinard (Connecticut): I would say there is a decent gap from the top 4 to the rest of the list. Am I shortchanging Jason Groome and Sam Travis?
Alex Speier: Groome’s tools belong with that top four, but he doesn’t have a track record to match it yet. There is indeed a notable drop to the back half of the top 10.

Marcus (Boston): Andrew Benintendi was everything Sox fans could have hoped. Unbelievable swing, make-up and better-than-average defense. Do you think he might win a batting-title or even MVP at some point?
Alex Speier: A lot of people think he has a chance to be a batting title winner. Pure, pure swing and great plate coverage of all kinds of pitches.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Of the pitchers moving from the short season teams to Greenville, who are your favorites?
Alex Speier: Does Groome count? Beyond that, the clearest potential for starters came from Pennington and Shawaryn.

Brian (Denver): When I read Boston's top prospect is a "once a decade" talent, I assumed it was talking about Moncada and was surprised it wasn't. Is Moncada's ceiling lower than Benintendi's or did Andrew get the nod because he is already producing in the bigs?
Alex Speier: Moncada has the higher ceiling but lower floor. Benintendi is just a standout hitter who complements that by doing everything else well.

Michael Duhigg (Littleton, MA): This is probably more of a research topic but it would be interesting to know how the prospects the Red Sox traded have done compared to the players they received in return. Unless of course you know this off the top of your head which would be most impressive.
Alex Speier: I actually looked into this last year for the Globe at some point, I believe — though it might’ve only been for pitchers. But, I’d say they’ve kept the clear majority of their best prospects while regretting the decision to deal at least a couple guys (Rizzo, Reddick).

Lloyd (Lakewood): Any hope for Michael Chavis?
Alex Speier: Yes, given that this would be his college junior year. Moreover, he was off to a great start this year before his thumb injury. That said, this is a big year for him, with Dalbec potentially capable of charging at him.

Scott (Toledo, OH): Roniel Raudes a 4 or 5 starter or bullpen material? A fastball, curve and changeup 3 pitch arsenal make him a serious rotation candidate in my mind.
Alex Speier: He doesn’t make the top 10 if he’s not a rotation candidate.

Dave (Brooklyn): Good afternoon, Alex. Thanks for taking the time to Chat with us! Although Victor Diaz (Greenville) did not make Ben Badler's recent Ask BA list of 100+ MPH Fastballs, he was on Ben's radar last off season list, along with Angel Felipe and Jeffrey Rosa, of up and coming 'big fastball' prospects. After a bad first half, he appears to have dramatically improved in the second. Is he a candidate for the Top 30? Does he have a second pitch, or is his future completely dependent on the FB and command of it?
Alex Speier: I’ve heard that he did clear triple digits this year, with two pretty good secondary weapons in a slider and splitter. He could really move in the Sox system this year.

Jorge B (Nicaragua): What level do you think, Roniel Raudes will pitch in 2017?
Alex Speier: Probably a full season in High A Salem — which would be extraordinary for a 19-year-old.

Mike (Brooklyn): How close is Devers?
Alex Speier: He’s not a fast track guy — more level to level refinement of his offensive approach with a big league ETA no earlier than late-2018, I’d think.

Tom (Cali): Has Kopech overtaken Anderson Espinoza in pure prospect rankings?
Alex Speier: I didn’t talk to enough people about how they’d compare right now, but … there’s certainly a chance, perhaps helping to explain why the Sox were willing to deal Espinoza for Pomeranz.

Dr (Marylabd): Is Dubon a top 3-4 prospect in most systems? Fringe top 100? Maybe 150? What's the organizational attitude towards him?
Alex Speier: Can’t answer for other systems, but I’d guess that he’d get some consideration in that top tier in some places. The organization loves him. Everyone who coaches him loves him. The more scouts watch him, the more they love him. He’s a sum-of-the-parts guy with a chance to be pretty valuable.

Dan (Baltimore): Realistically, how many positions are going to be open in the next 3-5 years? Very solid young core at the MLB level leads me to believe a lot of these guys will be trade bait.
Alex Speier: Particularly given that Dombrowski views surplus as an inventory of tradeable assets… His M.O. has been to keep the top guys and to deal from depth beyond that, hence Margot+Guerra+Allen+Asuaje for Kimbrel.

Joe R. (Newport News, VA): If Benitendi is a "once-in-a-decade hitter", where does that leave Kyle Schwarber? Seriously, can you compare Benitendi to Schwarber purely as hitters?
Alex Speier: Pure hit tool? Yes. And indeed, John Manuel and I did just that on a podcast that went up yesterday! I suppose that if we’re mentioning another player, that raises a question about the “once-in-a-decade” characterization, but twice is pretty good!

Patrick Guttin (Sandpoint, Idaho): So at the end of the day, Sam Travis. Starter? Good bench piece. What do you project as both ceiling and floor?
Alex Speier: I think he’ll be a starter somewhere. Ceiling would be a 20-25 homer guy with great averages and loads of doubles, more likely projection would be 12-18 homers with solid doubles totals. So: 55 ceiling, 45 floor, 50 (solid everyday first baseman) likeliest projection.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Were Michael Chavis and Josh Ockimey both really close to making the list, or are there other prospects you'd comfortably slide ahead of them in that 11-15 range?
Alex Speier: Neither got a lot of consideration for the top 10, but both were oft-discussed in the cluster right below that tier.

Ryan (DC): What are the odds that Kopech reaches the majors this year? If he does, will he make an impact?
Alex Speier: I’d say there’s a real chance he makes the big leagues by the end of the season…and if he does, you’d imagine that there’s the possibility of impact. To me, the greater possibility for 2017 might be as a reliever if he reaches the big leagues, even though there is a growing consensus that he has a real chance to start in the big leagues.

Mike (Boston): Raudes is an aggressive ranking at 10, but I like it. Advanced beyond his years command wise. He pitched 115 innings last year at 18, I'd assume he gets up to around 150 this year. Any chance he gets aggressively promoted like DD did with Porcello. Very similar pitchers.
Alex Speier: Porcello was more physically developed and his stuff was likewise more developed. Raudes isn’t tackling a charging Youk at age 20, I don’t think… I’d think Raudes is more level to level, and there will be some periods of struggle along the way.

Mitch (Maryland): Might Benintendi be in consideration for #1 Prospect in the game?
Alex Speier: Above my pay grade!

Doug R (Princeton NJ): Besides Mauricio Dubron and maybe Michael Kopech, who else do you think will be special for the SeaDogs this year?
Alex Speier: I’ll be curious to see if Dubon opens the year in Portland or Pawtucket. To me, he’s pretty close to graduating to Triple A. Kopech and Devers are a pretty good starting point for anyone who wants to catch Portland.

Boris (soxprospects.com): Hi Alex. Love your work. A little off topic but where do the Sox currently stand as far replenishing the top part of their prospect list with IFA's after being unfairly penalized by MLB.
Alex Speier: I imagine that, in what could be the last year of the current international amateur free agency restriction, we will see the Red Sox spend an absolutely enormous amount when the green flight starts blinking on July 2.

Alex (Miami): Whats your opinion on Venezuelan LHPs Enmanuel De Jesus and Darwinson Hernandez?
Alex Speier: Hernandez turned some heads in Lowell this year, with a chance to be a late-innings reliever. De Jesus didn’t do the same.

Weber (Missouri): What can we expect from a peak Basabe?
Alex Speier: If everything clicks — and that’s an awfully big question — there’s a lot of upside , maybe a lite version of what Bradley did this year (more steals, avg to slightly above power — instead of Bradley’s plus power this year, plus defense but not the equal of Bradley’s).

Ranger Mania (Dallas): Is Dubon a future regular on a contending team or more of a Utility player. Any truth to being moved to CF with The Sox incredible Infield depth? Thank you for the Chats!!
Alex Speier: He’s played some CF in the AFL with an eye towards cultivating superutility potential. I don’t see him displacing any Red Sox starters from their positions, but some scouts absolutely think he could be an up-the-middle starter.

Carlos (New York): Do you think Benintendi will move up in the order, maybe 2nd?
Alex Speier: I think that’s a really good spot for a hitter with his bat and feel for the game, and a top three of, say, Pedroia/Benintendi/Betts would feature good L/R balance. Eventually, Benintendi couuld project in any of the top three spots, really.

Richard (Nor Cal): Benintendi over Moncada ? What exactly changed BA's opinion ? Would really like to hear some details on this as BA had Moncada ahead by a margin a few months ago
Alex Speier: John Manuel and I discussed this at some length here… https://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/redsox/2016/11/02/discussion-about-state-red-sox-farm-system/ZeiNGBTGA198zBB0fJiFdL/story.html

Ernie (Bronx): Tyler Hill got some love on BA's NYPL top 20 list. What are your thoughts on him as a prospect?
Alex Speier: The performance forced notice this year, but the tools didn’t stick out, and there was some BABIP funniness to his fantastic season.

Cabrij (Scarsdale): Do you think any of these prospects could be dealt for a player like Goldschmidt with Hazen in the Dbacks?
Alex Speier: My guess is that if the Red Sox deal from the top shelf, they’re doing so for pitching rather than a position player.

Maurizio (New Rochelle, NY): Who do you see as the most "untouchable" of the top 10 prospects, in a possible trade.
Alex Speier: That usually aligns pretty closely with the rankings, though the possibility of either Moncada or Devers at 3B does open up some possibilities to dealing at the top that might not have otherwise existed in other organizations.

Alex Becerra (Lake Placid, FL): Which of these do you project to have the best career and why?
Alex Speier: Benintendi, simply because we don’t have to imagine what it will take for him to start playing at something between an above-average everyday level and that of an All-Star. We’ve seen it.

Brandon Jimenez (Dalton, GA): Who do you see making the roster at some point next season?
Alex Speier: Of the top 10, I expect Benintendi to be an everyday OF in the big leagues out of the chute, and I can imagine any of Moncada, Kopech, Travis, or Dubon in the big leagues in 2017.

Ryan (Clinton, MA): What were the initial impressions on Shaun Anderson? Expected him to dominate but he got a fast demotion.
Alex Speier: Indeed he did. At this early point, his stuff hasn’t been as intriguing as that of a guy like Stephen Nogosek.

Steve (Huntington Beach, CA): In your opinion, what is Dubon's potential? Is he something close Mookie 2.0 or still too early to tell?
Alex Speier: Definitely not Mookie 2.0. Doesn’t have the plate discipline or the strength of Mookie.

Chelo Barragan (Yonkers): Does Moncada make the opening day roster in your opinion?
Alex Speier: No, I think he really, really needs to advance his approach in Triple A. He’s only played, what, like 3 dozen games above A-ball?

Ryan (Clinton, MA): Could you envision a scenario of Jake Cosart blowing through the upper levels of the minor leagues next year and land in the Red Sox bullpen? What about Nogosek?
Alex Speier: Never say never, but I don’t see it with either for next year. Cosart’s secondary weapons need a decent amount of refinement — he can’t just sail through the system with his fastball. Nogosek has some tinkering to do, and could be pretty interesting in a couple of years, but I don’t see 2017 as his ETA.

Ryan (Boston, MA): You have Roniel Raudes in the Top 10... isn't there a big concern that his "stuff" or lack there of gets hammered as he moves out of Greenville?
Alex Speier: Yup – that rightly raises the issue of floor. But his feel is good enough that a lot of people think he’ll figure out how to work with what he has — and with the possibility for an uptick as he matures physically.

John (Smoltz, GA): What the biggest thing missing from Yoan Aybar's game.. like 40 pounds?
Alex Speier: That, and any sense of an offensive approach. He’s still super raw, just doesn’t have a lot of playing experience, creating a boom-or-bust scenario with his considerable tools.

Omar (Little, MD): Did Travis Lakins take the biggest performance step back in 2016?
Alex Speier: Considering it was his first pro year, probably not. It wouldn’t have been unreasonable for him to be in Greenville given that he was a draft-eligible sophomore in 2015, so the fact that he had occasional dominant outings is High A makes his performance more respectable than his ERA would suggest.

Keith (Foulketown): How many evaluators (correctly) had Rafael Devers as the #1 prospect in the system.
Alex Speier: This year? None. There were some advocating for him over Moncada/Benintendi a year ago, however.

Joson (Arronsville, ma): Does Benintendi and Young make it palatable for the Red Sox to trade Jackie Bradley for a starter?
Alex Speier: I wouldn’t rule it out categorically, but Dombrowski has seemed reluctant to deal from areas of big league strength even if it means addressing a weakness. His preference appears to be dealing guys who are further away.

zak (providence): Did you get a chance to see Mike Shawaryn pitch in Lowell? Where do you expect him to start next year? He's a bit older but seems like he needs some polishing
Alex Speier: I think he’s a good candidate to pitch in Salem next year — pretty advanced college pitcher who had great numbers as a soph but regressed as a junior when his team made clear its need for innings (over dominance) from him. He’s got a clear starter’s mix, and the Sox are hoping to tap back into the swing-and-miss stuff he had as a sophomore.

Matthew (Salem,MA): Am I wrong in thinking Raudes has a similar ceiling to Brian Johnson, but Johnson is several years ahead in development. Or does he have more room to grow into a mid rotation or better starting pitcher?
Alex Speier: A RH version of Johnson isn’t a bad comp — or at least Johnson when he’s healthy — but Raudes does have slightly greater upside because of youth. One evaluator thought he could emerge as an Ervin Santana type.

frankie (Los Angeles): What is your projected numbers for Benintendi next year. Rookie of the Year?
Alex Speier: I wouldn’t be surprised at all if he was in the ROY mix. I’d probably be more surprised if he wasn’t.

Zak (providence): Hi Alex, Do you expect Devers to start playing at positions other than third base?
Alex Speier: No – he made enormous strides at 3B this year and looks like their best defensive 3B going forward. I’m interested to see how they approach Moncada’s position(s) in the future….

Matthew (Salem,Ma): Alex, you are without a doubt my favorite Boston baseball writer, taking up the mantle once occupied by Peter Gammons. With your insider knowledge, who is the Sox prospect outside the top 15 in A-Ball or lower to watch out for. Thanks
Alex Speier: That’s awfully kind of you. Keep Peter on the mantle, though! Guys with a chance to jump to much greater prominence in the next year, to me, include Josh Pennington, Travis Lakins, and Luis Diaz…along with Jagger Rusconi, if he can get healthy.

zak (providence): is Trey Ball a lost cause now?
Alex Speier: Not a lost cause, but his ceiling keeps getting lowered. There are still some people who think he could be a back-end starter, but more are intrigued to see if he can find another gear as a reliever.

Matthew (Salem, Ma): With Pat Light in Minnesota, which Sox prospect takes over as their best RP prospect? What other RP prospects do you figure might make a potential impact in Boston over the next year or two?
Alex Speier: If the Sox want to see what would happen with Kopech out of the bullpen, he could fly through the system. Robby Scott, Kyle Martin, and Chandler Shepherd all could be 2017 big league considerations. Maybe Luis Ysla throws himself in that mix if he can command and make some headway with his secondary stuff. Guys like Victor Diaz, Jake Cosart, Darwinzon Hernandez, Gerson Bautista, and Stephen Nogosek show a bit more impact potential a bit further down.

zak (providence): Did Marco Hernandez not make the top 10 because he graduated?
Alex Speier: He is prospect eligible but landed just outside the top 10.

Bob (Providence): How many of the players the Sox traded to San Diago would make this list?
Alex Speier: Espinoza and Margot make it. Logan Allen vs Raudes would be an interesting conversation…but, of course, by the time Espinoza and Margot were back in consideration, both Allen and Raudes would be pushed out of the top 10.

Ryan (Boston): How does Shaun Anderson now have starter potential according to you?
Alex Speier: I don’t believe Anderson has starter potential. Shawaryn does.

Bob (Providence): Where would Anderson Espinosa rank on this list?
Alex Speier: As a guess, probably either 5 or 6 — either between Kopech and Groome or just behind Groome.

Dan (Augusta, ME): Lorenzo Cedrola: Is he a potential top 10 guy in 2018? Thanks.
Alex Speier: Nope — doesn’t have top-10 impact, but does have a chance to be a big leaguer, most likely ceiling as a 4th OF.

Tony (San Jose, CA): Any chance Bogaerts is traded for a Sale or Quintana?
Alex Speier: Can’t see it happening.

S.J. (Jasonville): Does Swihart catch >50 games for Boston next year?
Alex Speier: No idea — no one really knows how the rehab will impact his ability to catch.

Chris (Parts Unknown): Luis Diaz - did you mean Vic Diaz or Luis Ysla, or both on that one?
Alex Speier: Sorry, Victor Diaz — Luis was a former Sox minor leaguer.

Alex (Miami): Is Victor Garcia with very good size and a mid 90's fastball a dark a sleeper prospect?
Alex Speier: I liked him as a sleeper prospect a year ago. His performance and stuff tailed off this year, but he’s shown that there might be something in there…

Alex Speier: Thanks so much to everyone for the great questions! Always a pleasure.