Seattle Mariners Top 10 Prospects Chat

Kyle Glaser: Hey everyone, looking forward to chatting. A lot of late moves changed the rankings at the last minute, definitely made things interesting.

Frank (Indianapolis IN): How many of these guys are likely to make the BA 100?
Kyle Glaser: This seems to be the standard first question in all of these chats, so we’ll start there. Lewis and O’Neill are definite. Both are Top 50 most likely. Beyond that, maybe you’ll see Gohara at the back end, but that’s about it.

Dan (Milwaukee): Where would Jackson, Blackburn and Littell have ranked?
Kyle Glaser: Jackson was No. 9 when he was traded. His stock had fallen big time, and that ranking was based solely on the brief flashes he showed at Clinton. To be honest, that No. 9 ranking was generous in the eyes of some of my editors. Littell was 14 and Blackburn was 17 at the time they were traded.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting, Kyle. With the logjam at 1b, where does DJ Peterson fit in, in DiPoto's world? DH only, trade bait, or none of the above? Finally, was he a candidate for the top 10?
Kyle Glaser: Hey J.P., my pleasure. Peterson actually took many positive steps forward in 2016 and the new regime likes him, more than a lot of other players they inherited from the previous regime. He was very seriously in consideration for a September callup before breaking his finger on a ground ball at the end of August, and there is a belief within the org he can make an impact in Seattle next year. That said, it is solely as a 1B/DH, and the logjam does make him trade bait, especially if he gets off to a good start in Tacoma next year. He was a candidate for the top 10, but was pushed down by some of their trade acquisitions and ultimately finished just outside of it.

Grant (NYC): What were evaluators' opinions of Bryson Brigman? Can he stick at short?
Kyle Glaser: Brigam is seen as a Jerry Hairston utility type. Yes, he can play short because he has the athleticism and glovework and – despite his perceived lack of arm strength – he throws everyone out because his internal clock is tremendous. That said, you don’t want him as your every day, 162 game SS. The Mariners are going to move him around between SS, 2B and CF as he moves up, preparing him exactly for a Jerry Hairston-type utility career.

Eric (Seattle, WA): I've read some promising things about rhp Kevin Gadea. What's his ceiling? Will he be in the Handbook?
Kyle Glaser: Gadea will get a mention in the handbook, yes, and is a sleeper in the system. He is a converted 3B and is extremely raw on the mound, but he’s big and strong with improving stuff. He’s so raw putting a ceiling on him isn’t fair right now, but keep an eye on him and don’t be surprised if he really breaks out in 2017.

Tommy (Portland, OR): With the series of recent trades, about where does the M's system rank overall now?
Kyle Glaser: It’s a good system but not a great one. As it currently stands, put it in the 14-18 range. There’s a lot of moves ahead though throughout baseball, so that could change by the time the rankings are actually published in our Handbook next spring.

J.P. (Springfield, IL): I assume it was a close call for the top spot between Lewis and O'Neill. Ultimately, what was/were the deciding factor(s)?
Kyle Glaser: You are correct, and it was made even closer by Lewis’ knee injury. Ultimately, Lewis’ ability to play center field and the fact he is consistently graded higher as a hitter by scouts both inside and outside the org gave him the edge.

Ric (Irvine CA): Where do you rate Eric Filia? I saw him play this summer! On and off the field he is an outstanding player and person! MVP of the all star game season and playoffs lead in all hitting categories except home runs!
Kyle Glaser: Filia is tricky. On the one hand, his performance was great and merits mention. On the other hand, it came as a 24-year old playing against 20 year olds in short season. He’s going to have to show that same level of performance against higher levels of competition before evaluators buy in on him.

Johan Lopez (New York): Who are the honorable mention that didn't make the top 10?
Kyle Glaser: Joe Rizzo was in the top 10 until the final trades that brought in Haniger and Povse. Beyond him, Ryan Yarbrough and D.J. Peterson were really the only other two that merited consideration. The rest of the next group all had significant enough warts that they weren’t top 10 candidates

Willy (North Carolina): Thanks for the chat. Was Alex Jackson on this list prior to Tuesday? How close was Whalen to making the top 10?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, Jackson was No. 9. And no, Whalen was immediately and unanimously a 15-18 guy. In the Braves system, he was closer to 30.

William Coleman (Pensacola, FL): In regards to the Mariners Top 10, which player was the hardest to evaluate fairly ?
Kyle Glaser: Andrew Moore. Scouts love him, managers love him, I love him, but it’s hard to be successful in the majors throwing 90-91 mph without a really good breaking pitch (i.e. Jerad Eickhoff and his CB). Still, Moore has never failed and he’s never given anyone justification for doubting him, so he will get the benefit of the doubt until further notice.

Zac (NY): I anticipated Kyle Lewis could make a Bregman/Benintendi move up to the majors in 2017. Do you think that's still possible given his injury? If so, do you think he could be an impact addition to a Mariners playoff push?
Kyle Glaser: No. He’s not even beginning baseball activities until April and won’t begin playing in games until June, and that is best-case scenario. He isn’t going to go from Low-A in June coming off a major injury to the majors by September. Just not enough time.

Zac (NY): Who do you feel is more likely to make an immediate impact in the big leagues, O'Neill or Lewis?
Kyle Glaser: Well immediate impact is O’Neill, simply because he’ll be there sooner. Don’t be surprised if O’Neill is in the majors hitting bombs in July while Lewis is still shaking off rust and getting his timing back in Low-A

Noel (Portland): Can you explain Lewis over O'Neill? Lewis was hurt and O'Neill succeded at higher levels. Is Lewis' shine that bright?
Kyle Glaser: It was close, but yes, Lewis’ shine is that bright, to use your term. He’s a gem and a franchise player, someone the Mariners and their fans should be looking forward to as an All-Star outfielder for years to come. O’Neill is also an excellent potential cornerstone, but Lewis is just that special

John (NJ): Who has a better chance to stick as a starter? The 6'8" Povse or the four-pitch Whalen?
Kyle Glaser: Povse. Stuff plays better and has better deception. Whalen projects as a spot starter/long man type, Povse is a bona fide rotation-caliber

ToJo (Canada): Would Alex Jackson have ranked in the Top 10? If not, just how badly did the M's house the Braves in your eyes -- getting an MLB-ready arm and a Top 10 prospect in return?
Kyle Glaser: No. 9, as previously discussed. And I will leave it at the Mariners did very well for a player who is a pure lottery ticket at this point, especially given Povse and Whalen can help them in the majors almost immediately

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): AAA 1st in division AA 1st in league w/ W-L per-centage A+ 2nd in division A- 1st in league w/ W-L per-centage SS 1st in division R 2nd in division With a farm system like this they should be fixed for years with a line of top prospects - true or false?
Kyle Glaser: This is the million dollar question fueling debates about the value of winning in the minors. Recent data, most notably with the Astros, shows there does appear to be some correlation. That said, some of the winningest teams in the minors – particularly at AAA and AA – are loaded with 25-28 year old career minor leaguers who are more savvy than skilled and take advantage of younger, less polished players. In the low minors, the rate of attrition b/c of injuries, performance dropoffs, etc is always high, even with top prospects. Point is, it’s better to have a bunch of teams winning in the minors than not, but that in and of itself does not necessarily mean you’re loaded with a line of top prospects ready to impact the majors at any time.

Steve (Springfield): What is a fair slash line projection for Vogelbach, assuming he gets roughly 300-plus PA? What are the odds he receives that many PA next year?
Kyle Glaser: 250/.360/.420 is very tenable for him. It could be higher if he really only faces RHPs exclusively. He gets on base a ton, his power is growing, and he really doesn’t strike out much for a guy with his raw power. There will be some ups and downs and adjustments, but if nothing else he’ll get on base and hit a few doubles and HRs to help out in a platoon setting.

MIGUEL (MIAMI): Few players who have already cracked the big leagues on this list.... did SS Chris Torres or Bryan Hernandez come close to being in top 10?
Kyle Glaser: No. Hernandez is above Torres, but neither were close in this beefed up system.

Francisco (Atlanta): Do yo see O'neill in the bigs by the all star game or a september call up ? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: I really do think he’ll get his first taste of the majors by the All-Star break, given Seattle’s current corner OF setup and the fact he’s going to go the PCL and probably put up ungodly numbers there the front office won’t be able to ignore.

Billy (Seattle): Let's say Tyler O'Neill plays really well in Tacoma... Do you see him as a September callup? Also... Who is the best pitcher in the farm in your opinion?
Kyle Glaser: Well the answer is above, he will be in Seattle well before September if he does what he should do in Tacoma. And Luiz Gohara is the best pitcher, as the rankings show.

Tito Mercado (Seatac Wa): Where does double plus fall on the scouting scale (20-80 right)? 70-80?
Kyle Glaser: Double-plus means 70. In terms of power, that’s 30-35 HR potential.

Sean (Canada): What would you view as Drew Jackson's ceiling?
Kyle Glaser: His ceiling is a solid everyday shortstop, but there is a growing sense he won’t hit enough to reach it and will end up a speed-and-defense based utility man.

Pat (Hapeville): What are your thoughts on the return for Jackson? Also, do you think Whalen has a chance to make the big club out of spring training?
Kyle Glaser: I answered about the return on Jackson earlier, but to address the second part of your question – as the roster presently stands, Whalen probably has a decent chance to make the roster out of camp as the long man. That said, I’m sure Jerry Dipoto is looking at his pitching staff and seeing the need for upgrades, which he’ll likely suss out and ultimately push Whalen back to Triple-A.

norman (greenville,sc): Haniger- What are the chances he starts opening day ? What current major leaguer does he remind you of ?
Kyle Glaser: The Mariners went on record with me as saying he will be on the opening day roster. I believe he starts in LF, with Leonys Martin in center Seth Smith in right as the roster currently stands. As for a comp, he is A.J. Pollock without quite the ceiling. So while Pollock is .290/.345/.460 for his career, Haniger figures to be more .270/.330/.440, provided he keeps with his swing changes, while playing good defense but not quite Pollock’s Gold Glove caliber.

Matt (Columbus): Does Voggie have a low ceiling? Or are 1b/DH types needing to be really impressive to rank... I was surprised to see him at 10, but maybe his floor isn't as high as I think it is.
Kyle Glaser: His ceiling is fairly low because he only hit 20 HR for the first time last year, and despite his frame he isn’t a 30-35 HR masher type, which you kind of need to be to be an elite 1b/DH prospect. At the same time, his floor is very high. Basically, he’s absolutely a big leaguer – it’s just unclear (and up for debate within the scouting community) whether it will be as a platoon guy or an everyday guy

Justin (Tucson): Tyler O'Neil is a beast! Is a mini-Mark Trumbo a safe comp? (.250 hitter with 30+ hrs annually)
Kyle Glaser: Khris Davis is actually the comp I think fits really well. Smaller corner OF guy but crazy jacked, lot of strikeouts but a really safe bet to hit 22-26 HR in a down year while pushing 40 at his peak, settling into a mid-30s average over the course of his career

Robb (Sewell, NJ): What is the ceiling/floor for Neidert?
Kyle Glaser: Ceiling is he continues to get stronger, fine tunes his stuff and ends up a Tim Hudson-esque No. 2. Floor is his stuff stalls in its development and he’s a career minor leaguer who never sniffs the majors. He’s a 19-year old who just finished his first professional season in Low A, so gap between his ceiling and floor is exceptionally wide. It will come into focus a little more next year.

Ryne (Waco, TX): Can D.J. Peterson eventually become an average hitter at the Major League level? Is he destined to 1B-only, or can he pass as a right-fielder? Thanks in advance.
Kyle Glaser: He’s 1B/DH only, which will hamper him a bit. And few think average hitter, but if he can get to fringe average, that’s a .250 hitter with some pop, which will help him play somewhere.

Brian (DC): What attributed to the M's organizational success in Dipoto's first year? Was it the implementation of his philosophy or him gathering the right players, or both? Despite dealing from the farm recently (Blackburn, Littell, Kelly, Thompson, Jackson), do you think Dipoto will be able to build or maintain a robust system with the M's, or is he following a similar path he did when he left Anaheim?
Kyle Glaser: To be honest, in my conversations with the group in place I’ve come away impressed with both their acumen and humility, which is not something I would say about some of the organizations I’ve dealt with. Like any business, having the right group of people in place at the top makes a world of difference, and I think they have that beyond just Dipoto. You have the right people implementing a good philosophy, you’re going to see positive results, whether it’s baseball or healthcare or fast food. In regards to your other question, you’ll notice that while Dipoto is trading prospects it’s from depth in the farm, not the top guys – O’Neill, Gohara, Moore, etc. – so he’s on the right track of “keep your top guys, move the next tier guys in the right deal”. Time will tell, but so far so good.

Pat (Wharton, NJ): Luis LIberato - Too aggressive on the rankings last year, a step backwards or a better system the reason for the fall?
Kyle Glaser: I can’t speak for my predecessor who compiled the Mariners list last year, but Liberato was a tools gamble that did not translate, as happens. Combination of poor year, injuries, lack of any track record of success (he’s never hit above. 260 at any level or shown any power) and the steps forward taken by multiple players in the system even before the offseason trades all led to him falling pretty far.

Ryne (Waco, TX): Was Ben Gamel close to the Top-10 at all? Will he always be a platoon/4OF-type, or does he have upside to become a regular some day?
Kyle Glaser: No. He is strictly a 4th OF, even on a second-division team. Nice player to have who can do some things for you off the bench, but nowhere near a top 10 prospect

Brian (DC): What's your view on Eric Filia? Is he an intriguing prospect with some big league potential, or was he just too advanced for Short Season this past summer?
Kyle Glaser: As mentioned earlier. We’ll know more next year. It was worth taking note of what he did, but is going to have to prove he can perform against better pitching and not 19-20 yr olds fresh out of high school or extended spring training. Not saying he can’t do it, but he’s going to have to prove he can

Chris (Tennessee): Hi Kyle, love the chats are the Mariners convinced that Lewis will only have "some swing and miss" based on a shortened pro debut ? I believe the local Braves had him in for a workout and passed on him at #3. isn't dropping to #11 a big descent and worrisome? thanks
Kyle Glaser: No, he controls the strike zone extremely well and it’s unanimous among scouts and management I spoke to, even outside the Mariners organization, that he will be an above-average hitter. The Braves and the staff they have in place generally prefer raw toolsy high schoolers, as we see every year. That’s why they passed on Lewis. Don’t sweat the fall. Addison Russell, George Springer, Max Scherzer, and Andrew McCutchen were all guys previously who were expected to go high, fell to No. 11 for various reasons, and are some of baseballs best players anyway.

Patrick Guttin (Sandpoint, Idaho): Not completely a prospect by any means but Nate Karns.....so much talent, but is he on cusp of moving forward or have we seen his best? Is he a rotation guy or middle of pen. Any hopes left?
Kyle Glaser: Always happy to answer majors questions since that’s generally my focus. At a certain point, you are what you are, and Karns is an ok 4th-5th starter at best and a guy you don’t want on the mound in any capacity at worst. Basically, he’s the same as about 50 other ML starters filling up the back end of rotations. That’s what he is, and I don’t expect him to change long-term, even if there is a one-year bounceback somewhere in there.

Kmac (Irvine): What are DJ Peterson's floor and realistic ceiling?
Kyle Glaser: Well, floor is a Triple-A guy who never sniffs the majors except for maybe a late season at-bat or two. Realistic ceiling is a second division first baseman who hits .250 with 15 HR. Again though, that’s a ceiling, and honestly he’s equally likely to get there as flame out in Tacoma next season. We’ll see.

Craig (Kirkland,WA): Does Luiz Gohara move to the bullpen next year or do the Mariners keep him in the rotation?
Kyle Glaser: This isn’t even a question being pondered in Mariners circles. Gohara is a starter, absolutely, and will be for the forseeable future. His third pitch is coming along, he’s holding up better into starts, all the signs you need to see are happening. He won’t be in a bullpen anytime soon

Tom Brady (Foxborough, MA): How far away is Nick Neidert from being a top 100 prospect?
Kyle Glaser: Pretty far. He’s a fine pitcher, but there’s about 50 guys in the minors who fit the “growing 19 year old in Low A with decent stuff and good command” description. He’ll need to separate himself with big performances in the Cal League and, likely Double-A, before he gets top 100 consideration

Craig (Kirkland,WA): Which Mariners prospects play in the Big Leagues in 2017?
Kyle Glaser: Haniger, Altavilla, Vogelbach will break camp with the Mariners, with one of Heredia/Gamel as well, as will Zych if he’s healthy. Expect to see Tyler O’Neill, D.J. Peterson and Rob Whalen at some point, with outside chances Andrew Moore, Max Povse and Ryan Yarbrough come up to eat some innings.

King Felix (Seattle,WA): What is the word on Thyago Vieira? I have heard he has hit 104MPH on the radar gun.
Kyle Glaser: Stuff is insane. He did officially hit 104 on a radar gun in the Fall League but to be honest I think that was a hot gun, but he sits 96-100 and touches 102 frequently. His slider is improving, and he began showing a promising power curveball in the Fall League. Basically, he’s got all the stuff to be a dominant closer, except he’s a total wild card with his control. We have five years of track record of horrible, non existent control and one year of ok control. Arquimedes Caminero is actually a possible comp, but we just don’t know if Vieira will even reach that until he shows another year of good control. We’ll find out next year in AA.

Clayt (Glenwood, IL): Kyle Lewis: what is his ceiling, his floor, and his best comp? Thanks guys!
Kyle Glaser: His ceiling is a perennial All-Star CF hitting .280 with 30 HR a year. Basically, Adam Jones 2.0, which remains his best comp. Floor is complicated by his knee injury. If he returns and his power base and speed never come back completely, then he may never get out of the minors.

Wes Bowser (Wautoma, WI): How close was Zack Littell to cracking the top 10? What do you see as his ceiling?
Kyle Glaser: Littell did not get top 10 consideration, but was the best of the next tier of guys. His ceiling is a reliable, cerebral back-end starter who can give you 130-150 decent innings a year, which can go a long way for a team when injuries hit.

Mark (Everett): I would like to know if all of the offense at short-season Everett got the attention of BA and the M's front office. Nick Zammarelli hit over .320 with almost 50 RBI in around 60 games. Eric Filia hit .362 with 46 RBI in about the same amount of games. Are these two worth watching, or was it a case of two older players dominating the younger set?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, Zammarelli’s and Filia’s performance got our attention, and thus I mentioned them specifically in the intro to the Top 10. Both are guys who were largely written off as older guys just taking advantage of younger competition by the evaluators we spoke with, but I’ll be watching both closely in full-season ball next year to see if they keep it up.

Jeff (Bakersfield): Joe Decarlo hit for his highest average, home runs and RBI as a pro in 2016. Is there still hope given that east coast kids take longer to round into form?
Kyle Glaser: The concern is all of that came playing in the Cal League. That doesn’t mean it wasn’t notable, but the track record of guys who have never performed before and then suddenly put up good numbers in the Cal League isn’t great. Keep in mind, he is Rule 5 draft eligible this year and the Mariners left him unprotected, so that tells you a little bit about whether they think he’s someone worth ensuring you keep.

Chris (Michigan): The Mariners system seems to have gotten worse after the Lex Jackson trade. Is this true?
Kyle Glaser: Not at all. Exact opposite, actually. The system today is more well-rounded than when the season ended, with a lot of super far away guys who didn’t profile all that special traded for other guys who you know can at least contribute, while keeping all the top-tier guys. This was a system likely in the bottom third of baseball when the offseason began, now its in contention for top half.

Brian (Detroit): Where would you place the Mariner's farm? Top half or bottom half of MLB? Any sleepers that could help the big league team in 2017?
Kyle Glaser: Gun to my head I say bottom half, but not by much. That 16-18 range. And I mentioned guys earlier who will be up, but a super sleeper would be Tyler Pike, a sinkerballing lefty who will start in AA and could rise quickly if the Mariners other lefty relif types (Kiekhefer, Pazos, Curtis, Fry) struggle

Michael Stern (Rochester NY): How close was Dylan Unsworth to the top ten? Can you see him in the Sea rotation down the road someday? What is his ceiling? Thanks for the chat!
Kyle Glaser: Uhhh not even close. He’s not even in the top 30. He’s a pure minor leaguer in the eyes of everyone, both inside and outside the org. Throws 88, was plagued by injuries, middling track record (4.07 career ERA, .280 opponent average, mostly in the low minors). If he ends up pitching for Seattle in any capacity, it would surprise everyone, including the org itself.

StumptownDave (Portland, Or. 97236): What's the prognosis on Kyle Lewis? When do you anticipate him resuming baseball activities? And where do you think he will start in the minors when able?
Kyle Glaser: It’s all in the writeup, but I’ll repeat it here. Baseball activities will not resume until April, won’t start playing games in minors until June. That’s if nothing goes wrong or he doesn’t have any setbacks, which is never a given. Low A is where he goes when he’s ready

Tom (Not at South Pole): Joe Rizzo fan. Great stroke, makeup. And fielding better than advertised. What does he have to do to speed through the minors?
Kyle Glaser: Just keep hitting and develop his power. Lot to like there. He should have a bright future ahead

Phil (Seattle): What have you heard regarding Gohara's makeup? I have heard the work ethic has not been the best, has he started to turn the corner in that regard?
Kyle Glaser: Yes, it’s much, much better. To be blunt, he was lazy and inattentive and didn’t work at anything or compete on the mound. The Mariners new regime sat him down, made it exceedingly clear he was closer to being cut than given a promotion, and started him in extended for a fourth straight year. That finally woke him up, and by all accounts he’s figured out what he needs to do – listen to his coaches, take care of his body, compete. Some guys take a little longer to get through to, but it appears he has finally turned that corner.

Roger (Greenville, SC): Would Alex Jackson have ranked, and if so, where? How much hope is there for a rebound?
Kyle Glaser: There’s about 10 questions in the queue asking exactly this, so I’ll use this to answer them all. He was No. 9, and the fact he had roughly 35 point increases in his average and slugging this year show there was some progress made. The hope for a rebound is not very high and no one should be banking on it, but a new organization and a fresh start give him a better chance than if he was still in the Mariners org and going back to Clinton for a third straight year.

Jose (Washington, DC): Are there any analogues for Kyle Lewis' knee injury that we can use to figure out how much the injury should impact his future in MLB? How concerned are the Mariners?
Kyle Glaser: Chipper Jones and Joe Mauer are the precedents. Both had major knee surgeries as top prospects that wiped out either a full year (1994 for Jones) or most of one (2004 for Mauer) and both rehabbed and went on to their expected great careers anyway. Both were farther along than Lewis developmentally, but the point is great prospects can rehab a major knee injury and not let it prevent them from being stars. And the Mariners actually are less concerned than when it happened because the surgery showed it wasn’t as bad as initially feared. Lewis needs rehab, but the Mariners felt a lot more confident post surgery than pre surgery.

Sami Tiba (Eugene, Oregon): Is it possible that we will see O'Neil or Lewis (even though he was injured), to eventually crack the 40 man roster this year? I believe Gohara will be an excellent 2-4 starter in the major leagues. Is it possible the Mariners will call him up when he turns 21 next year?
Kyle Glaser: Again, no on Lewis. Not going to be ready in time. O’Neill yes, and Gohara’s is two years away at least. He’s starting at Hi-A next year, maybe you’ll see him in AA by the end of the year. The majors aren’t a possibility for him until 2018 at the earliest

Travis (Omak Wa): Who is an under the radar player in the mariner system who could breakout this year?
Kyle Glaser: Kevin Gadea and Pablo Lopez. Two young Latin American righhanders getting stronger with improving stuff who showed well in LoA. Both have strong chances to put themselves firmly on the prospect map with good seasons in the Cal League

Travis (Omak Wa): Of the international signings made by the M's in the last few year who has the most upside? Anyone we should really be excited about?
Kyle Glaser: Carlos Vargas, signed for $1.625 million in 2015, has tremendous power potential he is showing in games and is playing a pretty good shortstop. He was the MVP of the DSL All-Star Game and should make his stateside debut next year. He’s 17 and far away, but definitely someone worth watching closely

Bill (Seattle): Vogelbach made the the top 10 but wasn't close in the Cubs system. Has he improved his stock or do the Cubs just have a much better, deeper farm?
Kyle Glaser: Actually, per our editor John Manuel, who compiles the Cubs top 10, Vogelbach would have ranked as high as No. 7 in the Cubs system this year. Vogelbach took huge steps forward, hitting 20 HR for the first time and excelling in both Double-A and Triple-A. He’s improved his stock, and would be 7-10 in a lot of systems across baseball.

Allen (Tn): Any insight on Drew Jackson's lack of steals this season? Sounds like the speed has not diminished?
Kyle Glaser: Jumps and reads need work. He was able to take advantage of ill-prepared HS pitchers in short-season, but the 23 year olds in the Cal League know how to hold runners and the catchers back there all at least have average arms. Raw speed is there, but he has a lot of work to do as a baserunner.

JD (AZ): Hi Kyle, thanks for the chat. Wondering how close newly acquired Richie Shaffer was to the top 10.
Kyle Glaser: Not close. He’s a pure depth/power bat off the bench guy. Even the Mariners see him as such, and they’re the high org on him because they sought to acquire him

Saint (NE MPLS): Ryan Yarbrough had a good year for Double-A Jackson and was #14 last year on BA's top 30 for Seattle. Is he roughly in the same position this year? Do you think he gets a taste of the bigs in 2017 and what do you see his ultimate ceiling as? Solid #4 starter?
Kyle Glaser: He’ll be higher in this year’s rankings. He had a really good year. Basically his sinker/changeup combo is excellent, but he needs to develop his slider to reach his starter ceiling. If he develops his slider, then you’re looking at a possible No. 4 or 5 starter. If he doesn’t, he’s a ground ball oriented reliever. I do think he sees time in the majors in 2017, in what capacity will be determined by injuries.

Kit Mar (Vancouver, Canada): Pretty significant jump for Andrew Moore considering last year he was viewed as a 5th starter in the MLB. Does this still hold true? Is his jump upwards just due to the weakness of our system? I know he changed the grip on his curveball which yielded pretty good results as far as I'm aware.
Kyle Glaser: Wasn’t much of a jump at all actually. Just went from No. 8 last year to No. 6 this year and is still viewed as a 5th starter. Thing is, the risk is a lot lower and more scouts have bought in after he dominated the Cal League and held his own in Double-A. It’s actually pretty consensus Moore is a big leaguer, it’s just as a solid 5th starter (which every team needs) and not more

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): Thanks for the chat, Kyle! Could you offer a few words on Joe Rizzo? Was he the likely #11 for you? Was there anyone else who merited a similarly strong consideration?
Kyle Glaser: My pleasure Jonathan. Rizzo actually was in the top 10 until Haniger and Povse were brought into the system, pushing him down to 11. If you pick up the magazine, which actually went to press before the trades, you’ll see Rizzo ranked with a full writeup on him. Short version – special bat, great makeup, better defender at 3b than you think, just needs to grow into his power and he’ll be a darn good player.

Jonathan (Syracuse, NY): How much of a gap was there between Kyle Lewis and Tyler O'Neill for you, as you were choosing the top player in the system?
Kyle Glaser: Tiny gap. As in, in our top 2017 100 I don’t expect Lewis and O’Neill to be separated by more than 5-7 spots.

Mick (Chicago): With former prospects and big league players like Snelling, Blackley, Liddi, and to a lesser degree Choo, the Mariners used to be huge in Australia and other non traditional baseball countries. Besides Brazilian Gohara, do they still scout and have prospects from those places?
Kyle Glaser: You could add Greg Halman and Kalian Sams from the Netherlands to that list too…The Mariners have a few guys like Gohara and Vieira from Brazil, Gadea from Nicaragua, but for the most part it’s not like it was 10 years ago no, the Mariners are much more involved in the traditional baseball countries now over the nontraditionals like they used to be.

Bill (Tacoma): Does Tyler O'Niell project to be a MOTO bat? Will he make the team out of ST? Thanks
Kyle Glaser: Yes, he’ll be a middle of the order masher. And no, he’ll start in Triple-A but will be up to Seattle during the year as long as he does what he should

Steve (Seattle): What are your thoughts on the Alex Jackson trade?
Kyle Glaser: Shameless plug right here…JJ Cooper and I discussed this on our BA Podcast a few days ago. Go ahead and take a listen for a more detailed breakdown than I can give here

Ken (Olympia, WA): We all know Neidert and Gohara. But Clinton had a lot of good starting pitching - did scouts say anything about Pablo Lopez, Pedro Vasquez, Nick Wells, or others?
Kyle Glaser: Pablo Lopez and Kevin Gadea are absolutely raw guys worth watching. Pedro Vasquez was traded to the Pirates for Arquimedes Caminero so he’s no longer in the system. Wells’ bad year knocked him off the radar for now but with his killer curveball could reemerge at some point. Really though, Gohara and Neidert separate themselves from the rest and are just a different caliber

Andy (Fort Washington, PA): Even after a 293/374/508 age 21 season at AA with 24 HR 54 XBH 102 RBI and a solid 12 SB that if anything underlies his sneaky athleticism is right, Tyler O'Neill is still rated below Kyle Lewis. Does your preference for Lewis stem from his assumed ability to stay in center? Or do you believe that Lewis' bat, arguably the best in this years collegiate draft crop, is special even compared to O'Neill?
Kyle Glaser: O’Neill is a stud, no question about it. We do our best to reflect industry consensus, and the overwhelming consensus, both inside and outside the organization, was Lewis is a better hitter, which pushed him over the top. With Lewis, you’re looking at a .280, 30 HR center fielder. With O’Neill, you’re looking at a .250, 35 HR right fielder. Both excellent. Both cornerstones, one just a little bit harder to find. If you were to compare Adam Jones and Khris Davis for example, you’d want both, but Jones would be the guy you’d take first.

Prich (Class, not teaching): I was psyched when the M's drafted Kyle Lewis, a bit concerned when he struggled out of the gate then psyched again when he surged, then really bummed when he got hurt... My question is this: What is the success rate of ball players who base their success on athleticism coming back from ACL injuries? What would be a good expectation of him for 2017... 500 PAs combined in ext. ST/A-ball and maybe the AFL?
Kyle Glaser: Chipper Jones was an exceptional athlete not given the credit he deserves and came back just fine from a torn ACL as a prospect that cost him a whole year. I would expect Lewis to get closer to 350 PAs next year as he returns to action in June and then presumably goes to the AFL, like many other prospects who missed time with injuries

Kit (Vancouver, Canada): The Mariners have seemingly done a good job of turning Tyler O'Neill into a pretty good defender. If this is truly due to good coaching is it possible this could help Kyle Lewis stick in Centre even after the injury. Additionally, do you think that DJ Peterson's arm would play well in RF, or are his other tools not strong enough to play in the outfield.
Kyle Glaser: D.J. Peterson is a 1B only. He doesn’t move well enough for 3B, let alone an outfield spot. And Lewis’ ability to stick in center is going to be determined by how he recovers from his knee injury. Pre-injury yes, he was going to stick in center. Post surgery, we’ll see.

Brady (Burlington, VT): Kyle, what do you think of Jerry Dipoto's activity in the last year and do the Mariners have a chance to win now and in the future?
Kyle Glaser: I think Dipoto has done a nice job strengthening the Mariners big league club as well as their farm system simultaneously . Both are in better shape than they were this time a year ago, which is all you can really ask for from a new GM just wrapping up his first calendar year. They’re in good shape to stay in contention over the next year or two as long as they shore up their pitching staff through trades or free agency, and the crop of guys at the top of their system are promising. It’s a franchise in much better shape than a lot of others right now, and that’s a credit to Dipoto and his staff

Kit (Vancouver, Canada): Luiz Gohara coming off a very strong season. How far away is he as of now and what is his ceiling/floor?
Kyle Glaser: He won’t be in the majors until 2018 at the earliest, 2019 most likely. Ceiling is a No. 2 starter, floor is a power-armed lefty reliever. He’s a big league arm as long as he stays in shape and motivated, which has not always been a given.

Prich (Teaching): You've kind of answered this, but I'll ask anyway... Say Nelson Cruz or Danny Valencia suffer an extended injury... Is DJ Pederson ready to hit MLB RH pitching for an extended period of time, if need be?
Kyle Glaser: At this exact moment, no. After an offseason of work and and entire spring training in big league camp, maybe. I do think Peterson will see time in the majors next year, how ready he is will depend on his progress laying off sliders and not bailing out on hard inside stuff, both things he improved on in 2016 but need continued improvement.

Tim (San Dimas): I keep hearing the Adam Jones comp for Lewis, and athletically that makes sense. But how does a guy with 4.5% career walk rate comp to a prospect who scouts say has excellent plate discipline? Do we not expect Lewis to take at least an average amount of walks?
Kyle Glaser: The Adam Jones comp is based mostly on Lewis’ size, power potential, overall hitting ability and knack for playing good CF defense based on instincts and routes rather than true burner speed. As far as the walks, yes, there is an expectation Lewis will walk more than 4.5 percent…but again, like Jones he’ll jump on an early count pitch he can crush rather than working the count merely for the sake of working a count. Clearly Adam Jones has had a fantastic career without a great walk rate, the expectation is Lewis can do the same whether his walk rate is 4.5 percent, 7 percent or 10 percent. That’s not going to be what defines him.

Ryan Hayes (Tacoma): are there any upcoming catchers in the system who have the potential to make the bigs?
Kyle Glaser: No. That’s one glaring weakness in the Mariners system right now. They really, really need Mike Zunino to figure it out, or they’re going to have a problem.

Travis (Omak wa): Who's the best international prospect in the Mariners system and what's their upside?
Kyle Glaser: As far as international guys currently playing domestically? Luiz Gohara and Brayan Hernandez. Playing abroad, Carlos Vargas, who has the upside of a 20 HR/year shortstop but is a very long way away from that.

Prich (WA State): Is Boog Powell still a prospect in your eyes? Had he not had the PED issues, would he have sniffed the top-10?
Kyle Glaser: No. This is the second time in three years he’s been suspended for PEDs. The entire point of prospecting is finding guys who can make an impact in the majors….if you keep getting suspended, you’re not helping in any way in that regard.

Matthew (London): Kevin Gadea. Potentially better than Gohara?
Kyle Glaser: No. Not by a longshot. Gadea is a super raw converted 3B still learning how to pitch. Gohara is younger, with vastly better stuff, done more at higher levels and is just flat out better in every way. Gohara is the unanimous top pitching prospect in this system. Gadea, who is older and less developed, is a raw project who isn’t even one of the top 10 SP prospects in the system.

Bill and Ted (San Dimas, CA): Dude, what happened with Alex Jackson? How does the consensus best high school bat of a draft, and a guy considered one of the best high school bats to come around for years, fall to getting traded after his first full year?
Kyle Glaser: Again, I refer you to the podcast JJ Cooper and I did about this a few days ago, which goes into detail on what happened

Kit (Vancouver, Canada): Thanks for asking all of our questions. What is your read on Tyler Marlette
Kyle Glaser: Got into better shape this year and began playing harder, which helps. He’s a power-hitting catcher who is improving, so there is always going to be a shot for someone like that. At the same time, he’s just now going to start a season at Double-A for the first time in his 7th pro season and is still not where he needs to be defensively. Maybe he’s a power hitting backup catcher at the next level, but only if his defense leaps forward, which is not a given.

Kyle Glaser: Alright everyone, that looks like all the questions we have for the day. Thanks for chatting with me, and have a great rest of your week.