2017 NCAA Tournament Chapel Hill Regional Preview

Ashton McGee (Photo by Carl Kline)

SEE ALSO: NCAA Regional Preview Podcast

1. North Carolina (47-12, 23-7 in Atlantic Coast Conference)

30th appearance (last in 2014), at-large, first place in ACC Coastal

Top 200 Prospects: RHP J.B. Bukauskas (6), SS Logan Warmoth (24), OF Brian Miller (43)

Season in a sentence: North Carolina opened the season as the No. 17 team in the nation behind a trio of talented players in Bukauskas, Warmoth and Miller, but fantastic freshman campaigns from players such as righthander Luca Dalatri and DH Ashton McGee have turned them into one of the most well-rounded clubs in the country.

Player to watch: Ashton McGee, dh. You know what you’re going to get from Bukauskas and UNC’s most well-known up the middle bats—Warmoth and Miller—but much of the Tar Heels’ success has stemmed from the work of McGee. McGee has primarily hit in the No. 3 spot in the lineup and has made the most of his role with a .340/.429/.510 line, while leading the team in on-base percentage. UNC is at its best offensively when McGee is able to produce at the plate as Miller and Warmoth wreak havoc on the bases.

Best weekend: at Florida State, March 31-April 2. Sweeping then No. 12 Florida State in Tallahassee for the first time in program history is a pretty easy pick for North Carolina’s best weekend. The Tar Heels jumped to No. 4 in the Top 25 after that series, which was fueled by a pair of late comebacks and excellent starts from Bukauskas (7 IP, 1 ER, 10 K) and Dalatri (6.2 IP, 2 ER, 4 K). Additionally, freshman righthander Tyler Baum entered the finale in the eighth inning and retired four straight batters in the heart of the Seminole lineup to close out the game in what was his first career relief appearance.

Outlook: As the No. 2 national seed, the Tar Heels are clearly the favorite to make it out of their own Chapel Hill Regional, and should have enough depth and balance in all areas to withstand a run from the other three teams. With that said, senior Adam Pate is the only player on the team with NCAA tournament experience, so UNC will have to avoid any postseason jitters.

2. Florida Gulf Coast (42-18, 13-8 in Atlantic Sun Conference)

First appearance, automatic, third place in A-Sun, A-Sun Tournament champion

Top 200 Prospects: None

Season in a sentence: After an electric start that saw the Eagles soar to No. 11 in the Top 25, they hit a skid early in conference play, but were able to recover in time to set a program record for wins (42), win their first A-Sun Tournament title and reach regionals for the first time as a Division I program.

Player to watch: Nick Rivera, 1b/dh. Rivera played in just 17 games last year due to a broken hamate bone that ended his season. In 2017 as a fifth-year player, Rivera hit a conference-leading 17 home runs to go along with a .304/.452/.585 line—leading the Eagles in both on-base percentage and slugging. Not only is Rivera’s on the field story is impressive, he’s overcome a challenging childhood with his parents dealing with criminal history and drug addictions.

Best weekend: A-Sun Tournament, May 24-27. The Eagles took the conference’s automatic bid after being dropped into the loser’s bracket after a losing in the second round to Kennesaw State and then rallying to win four elimination games in two days, including a pair of wins over No. 1 seed Jacksonville in the championship round.

Outlook: FGCU’s first matchup is a favorable one, from a historical perspective, as the Eagles own a 3-2 advantage all-time against the Wolverines. Among the teams in the region, FGCU has scored the fewest runs per game and has the worst fielding percentage. Being put in UNC’s regional is a tough pill to swallow for a first NCAA appearance and FGCU will have its work cut out for it to continue its postseason run.

3. Michigan (42-15, 16-8 in Big Ten Conference)

23rd appearance (last in 2015), at-large, second place in Big Ten

Top 200 Prospects: LHP Oliver Jaskie (177)

Season in a sentence: The Wolverines won 40 games for the first time since 2008 and enter the NCAA Tournament by way of an at-large bid for the first time since 2007, thanks in large part to an offense that led the conference in batting average and on-base percentage and a pitching staff that ranked second in strikeouts.

Player to watch: Oliver Jaskie, lhp. The first team all-Big Ten pitcher has made a name for himself as a pro prospect this season by making the most of his stuff on the mound—thanks to some funk and deception in his delivery—while also learning to make the most of life in general, thanks to help from his developmentally delayed sister. On top of Jaskie’s touching personal story, his added muscle and velocity on the rubber has allowed him to strikeout a career-high 11.65 batters per nine innings. He enters regionals at 8-2, 3.30 with 113 strikeouts in 87.1 innings this spring.

Best weekend: vs. Oklahoma, April 13-15. The Wolverines entered the series against then-No. 11 Oklahoma barely inside the top 25, at No. 23. After sweeping the Sooners convincingly in three games (Michigan outscored Oklahoma, 25-8) to jump above them in the rankings and make an impression in front of their biggest crowd to that point in the season, against their most-highly ranked opponent.

Outlook: In Jaskie, the Wolverines likely have the best weapon of the region to try and counter UNC’s high-powered pitching staff, and as a unit Michigan has the best K/9 and WHIP of the entire group. Offensively, Drew Lugbauer’s power (he leads the team with 11 home runs) from the left side could play well in Boshamer Stadium. Michigan has plenty of experience playing on the road this season and won’t be daunted by the task at hand.

4. Davidson (32-24, 13-11 in Atlantic 10 Conference )

First appearance, automatic, sixth place in A-10 standings, A-10 tournament champion

Top 200 Prospects: None

Season in a sentence: Davidson’s power heavy lineup has catapulted the team to a historic season, setting records in wins and sending them to the NCAA tournament for the first time in the program’s 115-year history, after winning the A-10 Tournament for the first time since joining the conference three years ago.

Player to watch: Durin O’Linger, rhp. O’Linger has been the ace of Davidson’s staff this season, and after his ridiculous 14.1 innings and 236 pitches over the course of the A-10 tournament, he’s up to 101 innings on the season—20 percent of Davidson’s 500 total innings this season. O’Linger’s headed to pharmacy school in the fall and told Davidson coach Dick Cooke that he wanted the ball as much as possible with his baseball career likely over after the season. He became a hero for the Wildcats in the conference tournament. How much more does he have left in the tank?

Best weekend: A-10 tournament, May 24-27. In 2016, Davidson made a run to the conference tournament championship game before falling to Rhode Island. This season, they again entered as the No. 6 seed, but managed to take down top-seeded Virginia Commonwealth twice on Saturday with the help of Alec Acosta’s 7-for-10 showing at the plate (including a pair of home runs) in the final two games to punch their ticket to regionals for the first time.

Outlook: Davidson is a huge long shot to come out of this region, but if the Wildcats need any sort of confidence booster, look no further than their May 9 matchup against the Tar Heels in Chapel Hill, where they lost a 10-inning game by just one run.

STAT PACK (National rank in parentheses)
	Avg.	Scoring (R/G)	HR	SB	ERA	K/9	WHIP	Fielding %age
1. North Carolina	.283 (94)	7.2 (24)	55 (57)	76 (39)	2.96 (5)	8.6 (40)	1.22 (13)	.979 (21)
2. Florida Gulf Coast	.282 (103)	6.2 (75)	54 (64)	32 (246)	3.65 (32)	8.7 (35)	1.33 (48)	.966 (200)
3. Michigan	.284 (90)	6.6 (51)	34 (169)	122 (4)	3.26 (11)	9.6 (7)	1.20 (6)	.983 (3)
4. Davidson	.277 (132)	6.2 (74)	70 (22)	17 (292)	4.54 (125)	6.7 (225)	1.54 (170)	.967 (186)