2017 NCAA Tournament Gainesville Regional Preview

Nelson Maldonado (Photo by Cliff Welch)

1. Florida (42-16, 21-9 in Southeastern Conference)

33rd appearance (10th straight), at-large, first place in SEC East

Top 200 Prospects: RHP Alex Faedo (10), SS Dalton Guthrie (163), Mike Rivera (168)

Season in a sentence: Even though Florida lost eight players who were drafted in the top 10 rounds of last year’s draft, it entered this season with weighty expectations and, thanks to its elite pitching staff and team defense, it has lived up to them while battling injuries to several key members of its lineup all season long.

Player to watch: Nelson Maldonado, of. Maldonado has emerged as Florida’s most consistent offensive player this season as Preseason All-Americans Daulton Guthrie, Jonathan India and Mike Rivera have been hampered by injuries. The sophomore comes into regionals hitting .325/.463/.490 with six home runs, 40 walks and 19 strikeouts. The Gators need Maldonado to continue to be the steady offensive force he has been all season.

Best weekend: vs. Kentucky, May 18-20. Florida went into the final weekend of the regular season needing to win a series against Kentucky to claim the SEC championship. The Gators got off to a bad start, losing 14-3 in the opener, but they bounced back with a rout of their own the next day and then clinched the title with a 6-4 victory in the finale. It was Florida’s fourth conference championship in 10 years under coach Kevin O’Sullivan.

Outlook: Florida’s rotation of righthanders Alex Faedo (7-2, 2.80), Brady Singer (7-4, 3.37) and Jackson Kowar (11-0, 3.74), all of whom project as first-round picks in the next two years, and closer Michael Byrne (2-4, 1.84, 14 SV) should be enough to propel it to super regionals for the third year in a row. The Gators’ offense can’t be overlooked, however, as it has hit its stride in recent weeks, and they will enjoy the home field advantage at McKethan Stadium, where they are 26-8 this season.

2. South Florida (41-17, 14-10 in American Athletic Conference)

12th appearance (first since 2015), at-large, third place in AAC

Top 200 Prospects: SS Kevin Merrell (49)

Season in a sentence: After going 24-33 last year, South Florida engineered one of the biggest turnarounds in the country this season, winning 41 games and making regionals for the second time in three seasons under coach Mark Kingston.

Player to watch: Kevin Merrell, ss. Merrell is of the biggest risers on draft boards this spring as he has moved to shortstop and continued to hit at a high level. The junior is hitting .386/.468/.569 with six home runs and 18 stolen bases. He has top-of-the-scale speed and has built his offensive game around it. The Bulls will need him to be a table-setter this weekend.

Best weekend: vs. Central Florida, April 7-9. In the home half of their season series against their archrivals, the Bulls swept the Knights. It was a much-needed series win for USF, which was coming off a pair of losses at Tulane on the opening weekend of AAC play. The sweep was the first of five straight series wins for the Bulls.

Outlook: USF has won just one road weekend this season and will be going into a hostile road environment in Gainesville. But the Bulls have the talent to compete, with Merrell leading the way offensively and a rotation of Phoenix Sanders (5-2, 3.00), Shane McClanahan (4-2, 3.28) and Peter Strzelecki (3-4, 2.42) anchoring the pitching staff. The Bulls will need to win some close games this weekend if they are to advance.

3. Bethune-Cookman (33-23, 15-8 in Mid-Eastern Athletic Conference)

16th appearance (second straight), automatic, first place in MEAC Southern Division, MEAC Tournament champion

Top 200 Prospects: None

Season in a sentence: BCU opened the season with a sweep of Boston College, its first ever against a member of the Atlantic Coast Conference, and built on that momentum throughout the season to win its second straight MEAC Tournament title.

Player to watch: Danny Rodriguez, 1b. The 2016 MEAC rookie of the year, Rodriguez continued his impressive performance this spring as a sophomore. He led the conference with 11 home runs this spring while hitting .343/.396/.585. Rodriguez is the Wildcats’ best power threat and anchors their lineup in the cleanup spot.

Best weekend: vs. Tennessee Tech, March 3-5. Tennessee Tech had won its first two series before travelling to Daytona Beach to take on BCU in the third week of the season. After losing the first game, 5-0, the Wildcats bounced back to win a pair of close games and claim the series against the eventual Ohio Valley Conference champions. Rodriguez homered and shortstop Demetrius Sims collected five hits and stole two bases in the final two games of the series.

Outlook: BCU is no stranger to the NCAA Tournament, but this is the first time it has been seeded higher than a No. 4. That means the Wildcats get to avoid an opening game against the top-seeded Gators, who they have never beaten in 31 tries. BCU still has a tough first game against South Florida, but it can also hope to improve this weekend on its 2-30 record in regional play.

4. Marist (32-21, 16-8 in Metro Atlantic Athletic Conference)

Seventh appearance (first since 2009), automatic, second place in MAAC, MAAC Tournament champion

Top 200 Prospects: None

Season in a sentence: Marist finished second in the conference in the regular season and then won its sixth MAAC Tournament title in program history, the most among current conference members.

Player to watch: Charlie Jerla, lhp. Jerla led Marist’s rotation this season and was named MAAC pitcher of the year after going 9-1, 3.92 with 65 strikeouts in 64.1 innings. The Red Foxes have won Jerla’s last eight starts, and they will need him to turn in another strong one this weekend in Gainesville.

Best weekend: at Mississippi State Tournament, Feb. 24-26. On the second weekend of the season, Marist traveled to Starkville to play two games against both Indiana State and Mississippi State. The Red Foxes bookended their weekend with wins against the Sycamores and the Bulldogs to go 2-2 in Dudy Noble Field. Marist improved to 4-3 on the season, its best start since 2009, the last time it made a regional.

Outlook: Marist has the unenviable task of opening the NCAA Tournament with a game at Florida. The Red Foxes have some NCAA Tournament upsets in their history, and they’ll need another one to avoid going two-and-out in Gainesville.

STAT PACK (National rank in parentheses)
Team	Avg.	Runs P/G	HR	SB	ERA	K/9	WHIP	Field %
1. Florida	.267 (179)	5.57 (156)	45 (106)	72 (52)	3.69 (38)	8.5 (53)	1.34 (49)	.981 (11)
2. South Florida	.287 (77)	5.84 (123)	45 (106)	45 (165)	3.25 (10)	10.3 (1)	1.25 (19)	.976 (40)
3. Bethune-Cookman	.291 (52)	6.34 (63)	33 (174)	52 (125)	4.53 (124)	6.2 (263)	1.43 (103)	.958 (262)
4. Marist	.277 (118)	6.09 (90)	27 (220)	98 (14)	3.92 (56)	8.7 (37)	1.36 (60)	.973 (79)