2017 NCAA Tournament Tallahassee Regional Preview

Cole Sands (Photo by Carl Kline)

SEE ALSO: NCAA Regional Preview Podcast

1. Florida State (39-20, 14-14 in Atlantic Coast Conference)

55th appearance (40th straight), automatic, fifth in ACC Atlantic, ACC Tournament champion

Top 200 Prospects: 3B Dylan Busby (130), SS Taylor Walls (162)

Season in a sentence: Plagued by injuries to key members of its lineup, Florida State struggled to live up to weighty preseason expectations for much of the year before finally putting it all together in time to win the ACC Tournament.

Player to watch: Cole Sands, rhp. Lefthander Tyler Holton (9-2, 2.43) has pitched like Florida State’s ace all season long, but the Seminoles will need Sands to step up and pitch to his potential. The sophomore has been inconsistent this season and is 6-3, 5.30 entering regionals. Sands is coming off his best start of the season, however, and if he can carry over his performance from the ACC Tournament into this weekend, Florida State should be able to stay in the winners’ bracket.

Best weekend: at Louisville, May 18-19. Florida State went to Louisville on the final weekend of the regular season in a nearly must-win situation. The Seminoles were 12-14 in conference play entering the series and coming off back-to-back ACC series losses at home. But Florida State was able to do what no other team had done since Louisville joined the ACC three years ago: win a series at Jim Patterson Stadium. The Seminoles won both games (the third was rained out) to even their conference record, score a marquee series victory and build momentum going into the ACC Tournament.

Outlook: After an angst-filled regular season in Tallahassee as many worried that Florida State’s streaks of reaching regionals and winning at least 40 games would come to an end, the Seminoles come into the NCAA Tournament playing the kind of baseball that was expected of them all season. They have a tough draw, but if they can continue to play the way they did the last two weeks, they should advance to super regionals for the third season in a row.

2. Central Florida (40-20, 15-9 in American Athletic Conference)

12th appearance (first since 2012), at-large, tied for first in the AAC

Top 200 Prospects: None

Season in a sentence: In his first season at UCF, coach Greg Lovelady guided the Knights to a worst-to-first turnaround in the AAC and their best season since 2012.

Player to watch: Robby Howell, rhp: Howell thrived in the role of Friday starter this season, going 10-0, 3.28 with 90 strikeouts in 96 innings. He was named AAC pitcher of the year after helping the Knights lead the conference in ERA (2.80) and WHIP (1.20). UCF will need him to carry that success into the NCAA Tournament this weekend.

Best weekend: vs. South Florida, May 18-20. The AAC regular season title was on the line when the two rivals meet in Orlando on the final weekend of the regular season. UCF was swept in the teams’ first series of the year in Tampa, but got revenge at home. After a close loss in the series opener, the Knights won the final two games of the weekend to clinch the series and the league championship.

Outlook: UCF is an older, veteran group, but none of its players were a part of its last regionals team. That might not matter, as Lovelady led Wright State to the regional final in each of the last two years before coming to UCF last July. If the Knights continue to play the way they have all season, they may surprise this weekend.

3. Auburn (35-24, 16-14 in Southeastern Conference)

20th appearance (first since 2015), at-large, tied for fourth place in SEC West

Top 200 Prospects: RHP Keegan Thompson (127)

Season in a sentence: After going 23-33 last season and missing the SEC Tournament in a tumultuous year on the Plains, Auburn bounced back in coach Butch Thompson’s second season thanks to the one-two punch of righthanders Keegan Thompson and Casey Mize and a 20-man recruiting class that ranked 21st in the nation.

Player to watch: Casey Mize, rhp: Auburn has co-aces with Mize (7-2, 1.93) and Thompson (6-4, 2.43) atop its rotation and will need both to deliver strong starts this weekend. Mize, a sophomore, is a potential first-round pick next year and will spend this summer player for USA Baseball’s Collegiate National Team. He got off to an incredible start to the season before an injury sidelined him for the second half of April. He struggled to get back on track following his return, but threw six dominant innings in the SEC Tournament last week. The Tigers will hope for a repeat performance in Tallahassee.

Best weekend: vs. Florida, March 10-12. Auburn came into SEC play with a 14-5 record, but had not been truly tested by its nonconference slate. That changed when Florida, the preseason SEC favorite, came to the Plains on the first weekend of conference play. Auburn quickly showed it was not a paper tiger, routing Florida, 14-3, in the opener and going on to finish off an improbable sweep with a pair of wins in one-run games.

Outlook: The Tigers are built around Mize and Thompson and will need their pair of aces to keep them in the winners’ bracket. If they can do that, Auburn has the pieces necessary to win a regional. But the Tigers can ill-afford to get sucked into a slugfest early in the weekend.

4. Tennessee Tech (40-19, 23-7 in Ohio Valley Conference)

Fifth appearance (first since 2009), automatic, first place in OVC, OVC Tournament champion

Top 200 Prospects: None

Season in a sentence: Tennessee Tech swept its first four OVC series, led the conference from wire to wire and then won the OVC Tournament title to advance to the NCAA Tournament for the first time since 2009.

Player to watch: Ryan Flick, DH. Flick has been one of Tennessee Tech’s best hitters all season, but took it to another level at the OVC Tournament last week. He went 6-for-14 (.429) with five home runs and 16 RBIs in three games to help power the Golden Eagles to the championship. Flick enters regionals hitting .384/.469/.735 with 18 home runs this season and Tennessee Tech will need him to continue to produce in the cleanup spot in its lineup.

Best weekend: at Southeast Missouri State, April 28-30. Tennessee Tech was on a four-game losing streak when it traveled to Southeast Missouri State, the defending OVC champion, at the end of April. It had been swept the previous weekend in a nonconference series at Southern Illinois and lost a midweek game to Middle Tennessee State. But, back in the OVC, Tennessee Tech got back on track by winning the first two games to claim its sixth conference series win of the season.

Outlook: Tennessee Tech has a potent offense, but it will be facing better pitching this weekend than it has all season. If the Golden Eagles have any chance of an upset, they will need their bats to rise to the occasion.

STAT PACK (National rank in parentheses)
Team	Avg.	Runs P/G	HR	SB	ERA	K/9	WHIP	Field %
1. Florida State	.269 (172)	7.39 (21)	63 (36)	55 (111)	3.94 (59)	9.0 (22)	1.29 (34)	.971 (117)
2. UCF	.281 (105)	6.38 (61)	49 (82)	106 (7)	2.93 (4)	8.9 (27)	1.20 (7)	.971 (115)
3. Auburn	.275 (133)	5.83 (128)	28 (214)	53 (122)	4.33 (97)	7.6 (139)	1.32 (44)	.975 (49)
4. Tennessee Tech	.320 (9)	8.39 (5)	97 (1)	41 (190)	5.29 (186)	9.4 (12)	1.45 (122)	.975 (57)