Draft Notebook: Prep Outfielders Rising

As the draft approaches, the number of draft rumors multiply.

Be it rumors of deals being cut high in the draft, players falling due to medical concerns or positive drug tests, all kinds of rumors have been floated. Deciphering what’s smoke and what’s more legitimate isn’t an exact process, but here we’ll break down some of the rumors that appear to have legs and identify emerging storylines to follow during tomorrow’s draft.

One strength of this year’s class is the deep group of athletic high school outfielders. While Jordon Adell (No. 7 in the BA 500) and Austin Beck (No. 9) have long been thought of as fits in the top 10, Bubba Thompson (No. 25) Heliot Ramos (No. 30) and Tristen Lutz could all go in the top 20. Drew Waters (No. 23) is said to be in play from the mid-teens on.

The Padres and Rays are wildcards at the top of the draft. Both teams covet prep lefthander MacKenzie Gore, but are rumored to be looking for a player at the right price to allow them more flexibility later in the draft. Ramos has been rumored to be in the mix for the Padres throughout the spring, though that was previously thought to be with one of their later picks. The Rays are still mulling options and have been linked to Thompson.

If neither of those outfielders go in the top five, they aren’t expected to last long. The Brewers, Angels and Pirates are connected to prep bats in the first round.

There’s a handful of late movers and shakers with late traction as the draft draws near.

• The majority of teams have removed Oregon State lefthander Luke Heimlich from their draft boards since the revelation that he is a convicted sex offender. Heimlich was the No. 43 prospect in the BA 500 before being removed from the rankings.
• Central Florida JC righthander Nate Pearson has drawn some interest as high as the top 10. Peason’s fastball hit triple digits in a recent bullpen, and he was trending up throughout the spring.
• Southeastern Louisiana’s Mac Sceroler (No. 138) isn’t a consensus top three rounds prospect, but it appears likely that he’ll go that high in the draft. A few teams have scouted Sceroler aggressively. His ceiling is the second round.
• There are a few teams interested in Wisconsin-Milwaukee catcher Daulton Varsho (No. 100) on the first day of the draft. Some teams believe Varsho can stick behind the plate and are enthusiastic about his offensive upside, while others see him moving to left field and are hesitant to bite given his small sample of performance against quality pitching.
• Florida prep shortstops Chris Seise, Jeter Downs and Mark Vientos are all expected to go in the first two rounds. Depending on how the board plays out, any of them could go in the first round, starting as high as the mid-teens.
• UC Irvine’s Keston Hiura (No. 14) has generated interest inside the top 10. He worked out for the A’s this weekend, and appears likely to go somewhere from five to 15.
• The hierarchy of prep arms varies greatly between teams, with some clubs being particularly high on Michael Mercado (No. 48), Caden Lemons (No. 57) and Tommy Mace (No. 88). All three could be drafted higher than where they are ranked.
• Stanford righthander Tristan Beck (No. 41) is expected to be selected on the first day of the draft, despite missing the entire spring with a back injury.

Many big leaguers are drafted after the first day of the draft, making the beginning of day two just as exciting as day one. Some names to monitor late on day one and early on day two include:

• North Carolina high school shortstop Greg Jones (No. 75) and Texas prep outfielder Mason House (No. 84) could both sneak into the back of the first day, and neither will last long into day two if they’re available.
• This year’s class of catching is down. Georgia prep Luis Campusano (No. 42) should be the first high school catcher drafted, though M.J. Melendez (No. 52) has day one interest as well. Sam McMillan (No. 117) and Blake Hunt (No. 123) could be in play in the second or third rounds. Hunt isn’t expected to come cheap, but some teams are high enough on him that he could be signed.
• There aren’t many college relievers that fit at the very top of the draft, but some teams view the fourth to fifth round as a fruitful window to grab relievers who could shoot to the majors quickly and save clubs money on the free agent market. Some to watch here would be Dallas Baptist’s Seth Elledge, Notre Dame’s Peter Solomon and UC Riverside’s Ryan Lillie, who some teams see as a starter, but he could be impactful and move faster as a reliever.
• Arkansas’s Chad Spanberger rose up draft boards late, as did Cal State Fullerton outfielder Scott Hurst and Loyola Marymount righthander Cory Abbott.