2018 Boston Red Sox Top 10 Prospects Chat

Alex Speier: Greetings! Thanks to all for joining this chat about the Red Sox’ top 10. Ready to go – fire away!

J.P. (Springfield, IL): Thanks for chatting. How close to this list was Bobby Dalbec, and what is his ceiling? Is a return to the mound feasible if his career as a position player fizzles out?

Alex Speier: Dalbec was tricky – bigtime upside thanks to his enormous raw power, but he also struck out a ton in his pro debut, an issue that was also present in college. Of course, he also had hamate surgery, so this year was difficult to evaluate. Ceiling would be a 35-HR 3B, but the probability… big question. He’s in the teens, I believe. He does have the ability to touch the high-90s, so sure – if the position side doesn’t work out, then there are teams that would be intrigued by him as a pitcher. But that sort of pivot wouldn’t happen for years.

Frank (Indianapolis, IN): How many of these prospects are worthy of making BA's top 100 list, in your estimation?

Alex Speier: That’s not really my domain, as my focus is more narrowly on the Sox, but I’d be surprised if anyone besides Groome and Chavis received top-100 consideration.

Kenny (Boston, MA): Will we see Ockimey in the 11-20 range when the Handbook comes out? Is he strictly a first baseman, or can he play elsewhere?

Alex Speier: That was indeed the Ockimey range for me, and frankly, evaluators are divided about whether he’s a future 1B or if he’ll need to be a DH. Still, there’s interesting offensive upside for a guy who can drive the ball out to left-center.

Eric (Lake Placid, NY): Which SS are you higher on between Danny Diaz and C.J. Chatham? Who has a better shot at sticking there?

Alex Speier: Diaz moved to 3B after signing. Chatham clearly has the better defensive tools (range, etc.) but has to stay healthy to prove it.

Ryan (Newton, MA): Is Brian Johnson still eligible for your top 30, and what's his role likely to be at this point?

Alex Speier: He is, but his future is tough to predict, diminishing his standing – he’s out of options, and it’s not clear how his stuff will play out of the bullpen if he’s there at the start of the year. Right now, most view him as a solid depth starter with a No. 5 ceiling.

Sammy (Providence, RI): Sorry for not seeing this, but how does a hitter (Chavis) who has an absolute breakout year with explosive power and is within striking distance of the Majors next year rank below a lefty (Groome) who was injured throughout much of the year and has struggled mightily when healthy thus far? Is this strictly a ceiling issue?

Alex Speier: There was a pretty good split about who should be No. 1, but yes, ceiling was a large part of the issue. At the same time, one can’t ignore either player’s performance pre-2017 — with Chavis having struggled badly for two years in Greenville. He made real gains in 2017, but he’s a year away from proving that he’s established a new baseline, and his modest avg/OBP in Portland also raises questions about what kind of player he becomes.

Matt (RI): Which out of the group of young pitchers not named Groome do you see potentially breaking out as a top 100-150 range prospect?

Alex Speier: There are a number of interesting A-ball guys, with Houck, Mata, and potentially Hernandez having future breakout potential. I have no idea how they’d stack up for this year’s 100-150, however.

Alex (Miami): thank you for taking my question with the sadly lost of Daniel Flores, we should expect the Family to keep the bonus, but are Red Sox getting any relief in international slot because of it?

Alex Speier: The tragic and heartbreaking death of Daniel Flores — who likely would have ranked between No. 3 and No. 5, with an obvious path to being the Sox’ future top prospect — remains unfathomable. Regarding your specific question, the Sox won’t get any relief in their international bonus pool.

Ryan (Clinton, MA): Houck is listed as best slider in the system. Does that show how poor the system is with that pitch, or has he improved it a lot? Because of his low arm slot it was reported as sweepy and often flat in the past.

Alex Speier: His slider has absolute wipeout potential. It’s a pitch that made considerable progress as he became more comfortable with it this year, and it’s no slight on other pitchers to call it the one with the highest upside in the system. (Shawaryn also has a plus slider.)

Jim (Boston): How does Chavis compare to a guy like Todd Frazier? Both seem to be high power, low OBP players.

Alex Speier: That sort of performer is certainly one possible projection. Frazier, Mike Moustakas … there’s real power in the tank with an approach that may be better suited for the six hole than 3/4.

Omar (Litttleton, MA): Alex Scherff get Kopech comparisons?

Alex Speier: Only in the sense that they both throw hard and are from Texas. Kopech was more unrefined with more upside. Scherff (19 when drafted) has considerably better fastball command, is closer to his peak velo (mid-90s topping out at 97) due to age, and shows a changeup.

Matt (Va): What kind of upside does Bryan Mata have?

Alex Speier: Mata has mid-rotation upside. As an 18-year-old, he showed the feel to pitch with three solid pitches, but there’s expected growth and an uptick in power that could give him at least two and possibly three above-average to plus pitches. His stuff is clearly better than that shown by Raudes at the same age a year ago.

Jay (Atlanta , GA): Where do you expect Houck and Brannen to start the season ?

Alex Speier: Houck could be Greenville or Salem – and either way, he should be in Salem by mid-year (like Shawaryn this year); Brannen has a good shot to open in Greenville.

Josh Ockimey (Snubbed): Why did I not make the top 10? I made strides both with my power and k rate in HiA and earned a late season promotion to AA where I more than held my own. What do I need to do in 2018 to make a significant jump in the system?

Alex Speier: Sorry, Josh. The power was solid rather than huge, the K rate was still high enough to raise questions about how the hit tool will play in the upper levels and big leagues, and the defense moved incrementally rather than significantly. A significant jump in any one of those areas next year — against better competition — would open the door to a move back into the top 10.

a.j. (las vegas): the stuff and strikeouts say groome is a #1 prospect but what do you attribute all the struggles on the field to?

Alex Speier: Transition to pro ball in which he wasn’t healthy, partly because he didn’t know how to prepare for it. He’s working out with Sale this winter, which can’t hurt as he tries to figure out the right path forward.

Brandon (IL): Is there any prospect in this system who is as woke as John Manuel?

Alex Speier: Who among us is?

Alan (Orange County): What's the latest on Swihart and should we still expect him to be a big leaguer?

Alex Speier: Absolutely – there are still big league tools there. The Sox really seem to want to figure out what he can be for them. Perhaps it’s as a C/1B/LF (the current plan for him in 2018), maybe he’s able to add other infield positions to the mix (2B, 3B), but there’s athleticism and, when healthy, intriguing bat life. He had a short but strong stretch in the Dominican Winter League before heading home for his wedding.

Brandon (Boston): 1) At what point do the Redsox cut ties with X? 2) Would he even command two or three MLB ready prospects, or would it be more two(ish) "project" prospects?

Alex Speier: Bogaerts in 2015 and 2016 was a better/more valuable hitter than Gregorius in ’17. The Sox really believe that, with new hitting coach Tim Hyers and Alex Cora, he can re-establish himself as a standout SS. Unless they add Machado, I don’t see the Sox rushing away from him.

Ron (Earth): Where does the Red Sox farm system rank now?

Alex Speier: Again, I don’t look league-wide, but most evaluators view it as a bottom-10 system — the product of having a ton of talented young players in the big leagues.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Of pitchers that will be on the Greenville staff not named Groome, Houck, or Scherff, who do you like best?

Alex Speier: Jake Thompson, if he starts there rather than Salem. Sox evaluators were very, very impressed by what they saw in Lowell.

Rob (Alaska): Do you think the Sox will ever give Sam Travis a legit shot to be the primary 1B? Rumors of Abreu or Hosmer suggest not. He may never be a superstar but he seems like the kind of guy who is going to have a long career in the majors as a solid everyday guy. Isn't there a better way to spend $100 million (than on Eric Hosmer)?

Alex Speier: Travis may get a shot, but first needs to show he can dominate AAA. This past year, in retrospect, seemed like a scramble to get back on track after the lost time due to injury. The 2018 season could reframe perception of him, for better or worse. And certainly, he could be a factor in the team’s 2019 plans if Hanley Ramirez is the 2018 1B (in the last year of his deal) and J.D. Martinez is signed as a LF/DH.

Gregory (Picton, Ontario, Canada): After Devers, which Red Sox prospect is most likely to reach the majors in 2018? After all the trades, there isn't a whole lot left in the system.

Alex Speier: Devers has already “graduated” from prospect status. Of the top 10, the most likely to be in the big leagues at some point in 2018 are Marco Hernandez, Sam Travis, Michael Chavis, and perhaps Mike Shawaryn.

martin (Charleston, SC): With Devers locking down 3B for the foreseeable future what's the plan for Chavis? Flip him for an SP?

Alex Speier: He could become a trade candidate behind Devers, but he’s also going to see time at both 3B and 1B out of the chute next year. Some evaluators are curious whether he could add 2B to his profile, given the frequent mention of Dan Uggla as a comp.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Does Durin O'linger successfully move to the Greenville mound in 2018, or is he off the pharmacy school? Is there much of a chance his repertoire will take him to higher farm system levels?

Alex Speier: Durin O’Linger was quite possibly my favorite player to write about this year. He has been given permission to defer pharmacy school indefinitely. Hard to say there’s “much of a chance” on him to get to the upper levels, but don’t bet against him – he could be another Mike McCarthy type.

Connor (Boston): Lorenzo Cedrola had a nice little year for a 19 year old. What's the scoop there? Will we see him in the handbook?

Alex Speier: Cedrola required season ending surgery (ankle, if memory serves) that pulled him off the list, given how important his legs are to his value.

Matt (RI): Are they any expectations for a potential breakout pitcher from the lower levels? Like J. Diaz

Alex Speier: Depends on how you define breakout – Darwinzon Hernandez has explosive stuff that could start to command more attention. Scherff could do the same as he develops. Thompson was a crazy good college performer who has a really good arm with a chance to dominate in the lower levels in a fashion that would turn a few heads. Given the track record of Sox international scouts, I’d guess there’s an excellent chance that someone we’ve never heard of, who signed for $5K-25K this summer, ends up as a highly regarded prospect.

Connor (Boston): After moving from the bullpen to the rotation in late July, Hildemaro Requena had a 0.59 ERA in his 8 starts at Greenville to end the year. Is he in the Sox top 30?

Alex Speier: I will only say he received some careful consideration. That performance was an eye-opener, but as a two-seam guy in a four-seam era, it’s hard to figure out what he’ll become.

ChrisG (Maryland): Does Cole Brannen have similar upside to Jackie Bradley? Both had wrist injuries coming into the draft which caused them to fall a bit farther than expected. If he's fully healthy, can we see him move quickly?

Alex Speier: Bradley came from college, Brannen from HS, so there’s no rush with Brannen’s development. He isn’t Bradley’s defensive equal, of course, but if his hit tool develops to let him stick at the top of the order with strong CF defense and difference-making baserunning, it’s certainly possible — but with a very different way of getting to such a value point. Based on how he runs, he might be a bit more Ellsbury-ish.

Hayden (Lowell): Yoan Aybar has been touted as a tools hound since he signed. But his production has never matched--or even come close--to descriptions of his tools. I know that he's still only 20, but does the Boston front office still hold out any hope that it'll click for him at some point?

Alex Speier: Sure, because it’s hard to forecast when it might click for a player with those tools, but if he doesn’t hit this spring, I wouldn’t be shocked if the Sox took a look at him as a pitcher in extended spring.

Jace (OXFORD): after all your discussions who are you now most intrigued about following early in 2018?

Alex Speier: Honestly, everyone. The minors are great precisely because the performance patterns don’t follow a script. Does Groome show up and dominate the lower levels in a fashion commensurate with his HS stuff? Can Chavis take another step forward as a hitter? Are Hernandez’s flashes of dominance as a starter real or a mirage? Is Travis the guy the Sox thought he was entering 2016 or capped as a bench guy? Etc. Etc. I’m interested in the unknown. Player development features nothing but unknowns.

Ryan (Leominster ma): Who of the no name group of pitchers in the 10-60 range have show a plus pitch?

Alex Speier: Of guys who will be in big league camp, Buttrey has a potential plus change, Shepherd may have a plus curveball. There are others — Lakins has a wide array of pitches with considerable potential but health has been an issue. Reliever Joan Martinez flashes really good stuff.

Alex Speier: Getting into multiple questions from some folks, so I’ll go into a bit of a lightning round.

Alex (Miami): Ronaldi Baldwin is the top catcher in the system. Is he a top 15 player in the system?

Alex Speier: He’s close to that range. The offensive profile for a catcher is unusual and impressive.

Alan (Orange County): Thanks for the chat. Who's your 2018 breakout pick?

Alex Speier: Danny Diaz has a chance to break the top 10 — or higher — in his first pro season if the power shows up.

Alan (Orange County): Tzu-Wei Lin, perhaps Boston's version of Linsinity last year - can you share how the Red Sox now value him internally and what kind of role do they plan for him, if any, going forward?

Alex Speier: He’s part of the UT depth equation. I wondered whether he might make Holt expendable this offseason. To date, he hasn’t, but he’s considered solid, versatile depth with a nice mix of attributes that would make him a useful bench guy.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Fellow Delawarean Tyler Hill seems to have a varied skill set - how do you think it will play at higher levels?

Alex Speier: To date, he doesn’t have a clear position. He hit really well in Lowell, ran well in Greenville … but he’s played mostly in LF, without the prototypical power for the position, and there are defensive questions there.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Name a sleeper from the short season league not in the Red Sox top 10. No - let's make this harder - not in the Sox top 30 in the Handbook.

Alex Speier: Nick Duron.

Frank (Indianapolis, IN): Why weren't the Sox contenders for the services of Stanton?

Alex Speier: The Cardinals and Giants offered more attractive deals initially, and when Stanton vetoed those two, the Marlins focused on the four teams to which he indicated he’d accept a deal. That said: Sox weren’t as well positioned as the Yankees to take on $ while offering top-end prospects. This is where the Yankees’ depth of potential impact guys was a real difference-maker.

Dan (NJ): How does a guy like Hernandez, with great K rates and a great FB (per y'all) get exposed in Rule 5? Wouldn't he have a solid shot at sticking in a pen as a mop-up? How do you see his upside since you see him as an outside top 150 breakout guy?

Alex Speier: Not Rule 5 eligible until after next year.

Alex Speier: I am about to answer many questions from Alex from Miami unless anyone else has some…

Alex (Miami): Thank you for taking my question. Other than Cole Brannen, Is Lorenzo Cedrola the top outfielder in the system,Is he a top 25 in the system player?

Alex Speier: No, and no.

Alex (Miami): Thank you for taking my question. Pedro Castellanos has hit very well on the DSL (2016) and the GCL (2017) is he a top 25 player in the system.

Alex Speier: Castellanos is very intriguing — a big 1B with great contact rates this year and the potential to play RF. He’s worth watching.

Alex (Miami): Thank you for taking my question. Looks like the Sox have something on Tyler Esplin?

Alex Speier: He certainly impressed in the GCL — strong reviews of his unusually advanced offensive approach coming out of HS.

Alex (Miami): Thank you for taking my question. Would like to know your opinion on Dominican RHPs Joan Martinez and Juan Florentino they seem like late bloomers.

Alex Speier: Martinez is less a late-bloomer than an older signee. He’s got premium velo and a slider to go with it. Heard some positive feedback on Florentino but he hasn’t made as strong an impression as Martinez.

Alex (Miami): Thank you for taking my question. Would like your opinion on Venezuelan LHP Johnny Diaz?

Alex Speier: Performed well in stretches, but was overshadowed by his fellow Venezuelans in a really interesting Greenville rotation.

Alex (Miami): The Sox system its very short on outfield talent, whats your opinion on Trent Kemp?

Alex Speier: He was off to a terrific start before the injury. Interesting tools.

Connor (Boston): Good year from Jalen Beeks at AA/AAA. Realistically, is the ceiling a #5 pitcher, or could it be higher if the slider continues to improve?

Alex Speier: It’s more cutter than slider, at least by intention, and it’s a pitch that certainly propelled him forward this year. Some see a No. 4 upside from Beeks…but with potential flyball tendencies as a LH that may be less-than-ideal for Fenway. (Of course, the same could’ve been said about Pomeranz.)

Steve (Florida): Brian Johnson, when pitching, has had very good numbers in the minors. In his brief stints in the majors, he has been solid. How come his "ceiling" is only as a #5 starter? He has at least shown that already. I am not saying he is an ace, but maybe a ceiling of a #3?

Alex Speier: His stuff has never bounced back to the 2014 (and spring 2015) levels to justify such a projection. Not many mid-rotation starters have a fastball that sits in the mid- to upper-80s.

Alex (Miami): Venezuelans pitchers Hildemaro Requena and Dedgar Jimenez had very good 2017 seasons, however their fastballs seems to be short, whats your opinion on them?

Alex Speier: Mentioned Requena before. Jimenez knows how to pitch – he could be a pitchability up/down depth starter.

Matt (Boston): What were the scouting reports you got regarding Josh Ockimey in 2017? If he can improve his hit tool and k rate, are we talking about a potential .270/.350/.500 1st baseman for his ceiling?

Alex Speier: That line is a really, really aggressive projection based on his performance to date and approach. I don’t like to forecast lines because they’re park and role dependent, but … I guess it’s possible to project that as a peak upside but with a more modest line seeming like a much higher probability projection. (There were only 46 players in MLB — about 1.5 per team — with a .350 OBP and .500 SLG in 300+ PAs last year.)

Alex (Miami): thank you for taking my question, Dominican RHO Yankory Pimentel doesn't get a lot of love, is he a prospect?

Alex Speier: He wasn’t in the conversation for top 30.

Rob (Alaska): Thanks for answering my question about Sam Travis. The point about AAA is interesting; it seems like the Sox have mostly used AA as the top test in recent years, at least for position players.

Alex Speier: If the Sox have seen a player with better projected big league production than the guys they have, then they haven’t shied from bumping him from AA. But not everyone develops at the same pace. Some guys need experience against high-quality breaking balls to refine their approaches and figure out the right swing in the right count. That’s Travis right now.

Alex Speier: Thanks to everyone for taking part in the chat, and for reading the top-10. There’s more, of course, in the Handbook – and I consider it an absolute privilege to be a part of BA’s team putting it together, and to hear from readers who care about what lies beneath the big league surface. Thanks for taking the time to do so. Happy holidays and cheers!