2018 Cleveland Indians Top 10 Prospects Chat

Teddy Cahill: Happy new year everyone and welcome to the Indians prospects chat. Once again this year it was a fun exercise to rank the best prospects in the Indians system. Lots of interesting players to talk about, so let’s get to your questions.

Ken (Akron): Regarding Mejia, is there any concern that a batting average heavy profile doesn't always translate well to MLB?

Teddy Cahill: Let’s start with Francisco Mejia, the Indians’ top prospect for the second year in a row. I wouldn’t be too concerned. especially as long as he’s a catcher. He has a really good feel for the barrel and puts the bat on the ball a lot. Also, he just turned 22 and could still add some more power to his game. He has the potential to be a very good offensive player.

Adam (New York): At what point should we write off Aiken? What needs to happen this year for him in order to give us some hope? Where do you sit in that same regard with Benson?

Teddy Cahill: After perusing the questions in the queue, there may be more questions in there about Brady Aiken than any other player. He has always been a very difficult player to deal with in rankings, but that was even more true this year. You will find him in the handbook, albeit much lower than you have found him in the past. A lot went wrong for Aiken this season and most worryingly was his command abandoning him. There is some belief that he needs to get stronger and more athletic and that doing so will clean up a lot of the problems he’s encountered. So that seems to be step No. 1 for him to turn things around. If he does that and in 2018 some of his velo comes back and he gets back to throwing strikes, I would take that as a hopeful sign. This year was too soon to give up on him, but he’s entering a critical point in his development. As for Benson – he’s nowhere near that point. It wasn’t a great first full season, but it was just a first full season and you can find plenty of positives, starting with his 10 homers and .237 ISO as a teenager in the NYPL. There’s still a lot for him to clean up, but he’s got plenty of time to do it.

John Ray (New York): Where does Quentin Holmes fall on this list? Do you have concerns about his first year in the system with the high strike out rate?

Teddy Cahill: After Aiken, I think Holmes might be the next most popular in the queue. The Indians’ top 2017 draft pick is in the teens and did receive top 10 consideration. I am concerned about his strikeout rate, though maybe not as much as you might expect for someone that whiffed in 36 percent of his plate appearances. He’s raw. That is not a surprise to anyone. He was there for the Indians near the back of the second round because he didn’t have an outstanding spring and then he struggled against more advanced pitching. But he was young for the class, is from the Northeast and is a dynamic athlete. Patience is required, but he’s the kind of player that could make a big jump once he gets a little more experience.

Clay (Sandusky, OH): Between OFs Quentin Holmes and Conner Capel, who are you more bullish on and why?

Teddy Cahill: Holmes, but not massively so. Capel had a great season at Lake County, but he’s two years older than Holmes and is more likely to end up in right field. Holmes was one of the best athletes in the draft class. His ceiling is pretty high. They’re close and Capel might be a little safer, but I’ll take the dynamism of Holmes.

Warren (New London): Tyler Krieger and Mark Mathias both had bad years at Akron; meanwhile another college 2B from the 2015 class, Sam Haggerty, put up some interesting numbers at Lynchburg. Is there a prospect in that group?

Teddy Cahill: Krieger and Mathias are both still in the handbook, despite tough seasons. Mathias needs to prove he can stay healthy and has now had problems with both his shoulders. But when he’s on the field, he does a lot of things well and provides versatility. I think he has a real chance to be a utility infielder and I know the big league staff liked what they saw of him in spring training, before his injury. Krieger is a little more limited and is going to need to get his mojo back at the plate to make an impact. He has a real chance to do so, but he’s going to have to make some adjustments this season.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Where do you expect all the talented shortstops to fit in at the major league level: or do you think the Indians are likely to deal some among Chang and Castro and Gonzalez for their other needs?

Teddy Cahill: Obviously, they can’t all fit. Lindor is at shortstop in Cleveland as long as the Indians can hang on to him. Jose Ramirez is holding down another infield spot for the foreseeable future. There’s some uncertainty about that third spot, but the Indians aren’t going to be able to squeeze Lindor and Ramirez and Gonzalez and Chang and Castro into a lineup. Someone is likely to get traded eventually – we know they nearly dealt Chang in 2016 and he and Castro get asked about a lot. So that may solve some of the log jam. The rest of it will probably work itself out.

a.j. (dallas): Is Bobby Bradley a 1B or a dh? Seemed like he was a cheap candidate to replace Santana instead of Alonso

Teddy Cahill: Bradley isn’t an elite defender, but he can stay at first base. But I don’t think he’s ready this year to be an Opening Day starter on a team that’s contending for the World Series. I think he gets to the big leagues very soon, quite possibly this year, but I do think the Indians needed a bridge from Santana to Bradley. Alonso fits that bill just fine, in my opinion.

Rob (Miami): What are the chances Eric Haase makes the roster on opening day? And what are chances he's going to be a starting catcher in the Show?

Teddy Cahill: I’d put Haase’s chances to break camp with the Tribe as minimal. He’s caught 108 games total in the last two years due to injury and playing behind Mejia. He needs more time. That, combined with the Indians having a pair of excellent defensive catchers in the big leagues, means Haase will start the year in the minors. I don’t think he’ll be a starting catcher in the big leagues, but, honestly, he’s difficult to evaluate because he hasn’t really been asked to handle catching every day much to this point in his career.

Ken (Queens, NY): Is Mike Rivera one to watch? How are his skills behind the dish?

Teddy Cahill: Yes, Rivera is a player to keep your eye on. He is a very good defender and handled top arms well throughout his amateur career, both with Team USA and at Florida. He’s going to have to prove he can hit well enough as he advances, but he’s good enough defensively to be given plenty of opportunity to work on his offense.

Rufus (Cleveland): Aaron Civale really took off after moving from Class-A full season to Class-A Advanced last year. Is he some one who could potentially move quickly through the system?

Teddy Cahill: Civale has always been tabbed as a guy who could move quickly and he’s largely lived up to that to this point. He’ll be in Double-A in 2018 and should keep advancing at a similar pace if he keeps performing.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Mitch Longo hit like mad when he got off the DL. Is he a real prospect?

Teddy Cahill: First of all, shoutout to Cleveland high school baseball, especially East Side high school baseball. Longo, the Mayfield High School product, had a solid first full season and he’s something. He did a really good job of putting the bat on the ball and though he’s been pretty much exclusively a right fielder to this point, he runs pretty well. But he’s also probably a corner outfielder who has hit five home runs in his first 100 pro games. That makes for a tough profile, but he’ll keep getting chances to prove he can hit.

Warren (New London): How optimistic are you that Nolan Jones can become an adequate 3B? Should they just move him to RF now and get it over with? The bat looks like it could be special.

Teddy Cahill: Jones has work to do to stay at third base, but there’s no need to move him yet. I think he has a pretty good shot to make the improvements he needs to stay there, though it is always difficult to forecast how players will mature physically. But you’ve got to let him play himself off the position in full-season ball. He’s not going to get to the big leagues in the next two years regardless, so you might as well let him keep working on his infield skills.

Shane (Westlake, Ohio): Luis Oviedo is a lanky 6'4" RHP who struck out 70 in 52 IP as an 18-year old in the AZL. That sounds promising, but I can't find a scouting report on him. Is he someone for Indians fans to keep an eye on?

Teddy Cahill: Most definitely. I’m very intrigued by Oviedo – who has some great measurables, as you detailed above, but also had a 7.14 ERA in the AZL. But he’s an exciting arm, throwing in the mid 90s with a chance for even more velocity to come. His peripherals were a lot better than his ERA and he’s still got some rough edges to work on, like all young arms. He’s got some real upside, though, and could gain prominence this year in the Penn League.

Karl of Delaware (Georgetown, Delaware): Chang is from Taiwan - are there other notable major leaguers, past or present, from that island?

Teddy Cahill: Chien-Ming Wang, most famously. Indians fans may remember C.C. Lee. There’s a solid baseball tradition in Taiwan.

John (Youngstown): Eli Morgan dominated the NYP. I know that short, college pitchers with plus change-ups have historically been successful in the low levels of the minors. But is there enough stuff and projection for Morgan to be a successful MLB pitcher?

Teddy Cahill: This is a very difficult question. I liked Morgan a lot as a college pitcher and wasn’t surprised to see him have success in the Penn League, though I never would have thought he’d put up the numbers he did. But I was surprised when I started reporting this list and found as much support for Morgan to make the handbook as I did. He has a nontraditional profile as a short righthander whose primary offspeed pitch is his changeup. He added some velocity in pro ball, which was critical, and the Indians think he can develop his slider enough to give him a third viable offering. He’s got a chance, but I think it’s fair to be a little skeptical at this point.

John (New jersey): Are you bullish on Mike Papi/

Teddy Cahill: I was never bullish on Mike Papi and he hasn’t really done anything in pro ball to change that. He had a fine season this year, but he’s 25 and a corner player who doesn’t hit for a ton of power. He might still make it to the big leagues, but it’s hard to see him becoming an impact player at this point.

Paul (Cincinnati, OH): Which rhp are you higher on - Civale or Morgan? Higher ceiling?

Teddy Cahill: Civale on both accounts. He’s bigger, has proven it at a higher level, has the bigger fastball and has really good feel for spin. I like Morgan a lot and he has the best pitch between the two, but as previously mentioned, he faces a really tough profile.

Austin (Cleveland, OH): Was the inclusion of Naquin as the potential 2021 LF rooted more in a belief in his talents or that Benson/Holmes wouldn't be ready by then?

Teddy Cahill: Yes? Longtime followers may recall that I’ve been the high man on Naquin for a long time now. This year was rough, yes, but there’s also a chance that 2016 is the real Tyler Naquin and he can get back to that level. But the restrictions we work with when making those 2021 lineups are what they are (limited to players within the organization) and if it’s not Naquin, you’re left with an aggressive developmental timetable for Will Benson or shoehorning Yandy Diaz or Erik Gonzalez into left. I went with Naquin.

Justin (Cleveland): Given that the Indians will likely lose Cody Allen and Andrew Miller (though their 2021 lineup on the prospect list has Allen as the closer) should the Indians convert Aaron Civale to a reliever now? Do you think he can start or do you think he has a shot to be a high leverage reliever?

Teddy Cahill: I wouldn’t convert Civale yet. The Indians think he really can start and I think he’s earned the chance to do so in the upper minors this year. I know there’s a lot of angst in Cleveland about the future of the bullpen after Shaw and Smith departed this winter and Miller expected to follow after this season. But this front office has been really good at building bullpens. They’ll find some relievers. Maybe that ends up being Civale, but they could also use more starters, especially if they ever dip into their rotation depth to make a trade.

Austin (Cleveland): The potential 2021 lineup includes 0 position players 30 yrs old or older, three SPs (two of which are 30) and a closer who very well may be gone next year in free agency. Should Indians fans be nervous looking toward a future that includes so many young players that may or may not live up to their potential?

Teddy Cahill: All of the 2021 lineup questions. I suppose your outlook on that projection depends on whether you want to see the glass as half full or half empty – jk, this is Cleveland sports, it’s always half empty. Personally, I think a young lineup is a positive. I also think it’s indicative of both the parameters of the exercise (limited to players already within the org) and the Indians’ small-market realities (players tend to leave/get traded when they get expensive). When you look that far out, I think it’s fair to wonder if the Indians’ current window will still be open. But I also think that young lineup has a chance to be really good and this organization has historically been very good at developing pitching. I know it’s hard, but I’d be optimistic about the Tribe’s future.

Erik (Akron): 3B Gavin Collins posted a .800+ OPS at low-A and high-A in his first full season. But as a 13th round pick in 2016, it's hard to know how seriously to consider Collins as a potential MLB third baseman. What do evaluators think of his ceiling?

Teddy Cahill: Collins was a little tough to get a feel for. He moved around the rankings a bit throughout the process, and I ultimately took a conservative view on him. He has a lot of work to do defensively and may end up at first base. He does a lot of good things at the plate and has some juice, but his K rate jumped when he got to Lynchburg. I’d like to see him play a full season and have success at Akron, which he’ll get a chance to do this year.

Mike (Medina, OH): I was a little surprised to see George Valera debut on the list at #9. Can we expect any other recent international signings among the top 30 when the book comes out??

Teddy Cahill: George Valera was the headliner in a robust international class this year. You’ll also find in the handbook Aaron Bracho, who ranked No. 17 overall in the international class. They’re obviously a long way from the big leagues, but they have big ceilings. And in a year that the Indians didn’t have a first round draft pick, I looked at Valera in the same way I’d look at a first rounder. He’s got some very exciting tools.

Steve (Tallahassee): Are you ignoring the inevitable “How many of these guys might make the top 100 list”, or hasn’t anyone asked it?

Teddy Cahill: It’s being ignored, momentarily. Rest assured, it’s in the queue and I will eventually work my way around to it.

Ross (Lorain, Ohio): LHP Sam Hentges has been an interest of mine since he was drafted--a big, 6'6" lefty with excellent K rates. I know he's battled some health issues, but does the stuff still offer a potential MLB starter if everything comes together?

Teddy Cahill: Hentges is a good one to have kept your eye on. He hadn’t been in the handbook recently due to undergoing Tommy John surgery, but he’s back this year after getting back on the mound this year with very encouraging results. If he can continue to work his back from injury, yes, the tools are all still there for him to develop into a big league starter. I think he could next year make a big jump after he’s had a healthy offseason and will advance to full-season ball.

Mike (Youngstown): I understand that Anthony Santander was recovering from an injury and hadn't reached the high levels of the minors yet, but I am disappointed that the Indians lost him last year in the Rule 5 draft. He's been extremely productive at the plate when healthy. Did the tribe think his long term health would be an issue? Where would he be ranked on this list if he were still in the organization?

Teddy Cahill: Santander was set to be in last year’s handbook, though not in the top 10, before the Orioles took him in the Rule 5 draft. 2017 was pretty much a lost year for him (though maybe it would have been less so if he could have been in the minors), so he’d probably be around the same spot this year if he remained in Cleveland. I think Santander’s health was a concern for the Indians, but he also had never played above high Class A before this year. I’d have to really go back and look at the 40-man situation last winter, but it’s tough to protect everyone.

Dillon (Elyria, Ohio): Over the last few years, the Indians have seemingly targeted college infielders in Rounds 3-6 whose hit-over-power profiles tend to lead them to utility infielder projections (e.g., Mathias, Krieger). The club stayed true to form in last year's draft in taking Ernie Clement in Round 4 (excellent bat control, zero power). Do you have any insight on whether this is an organizational strategy or simply their system determining BPA in the draft?

Teddy Cahill: I don’t think it’s a conscious strategy to target college infielders in those rounds. I do think the Indians target hittability (and versatility) in the draft and it often leads them to taking players like Clement, Krieger and Mathias. But you can see them valuing hittability at all levels of the draft. That’s what leads them to Greg Allen and Tyler Freeman and, internationally, to George Valera. So while it may be most obvious when you end up with three players as similar to each other as Clement, Krieger and Mathias, it is more widespread than that specific profile.

Mitch (Ashtabula, Ohio): There hasn't been much buzz on Tyler Freeman after he was a compensatory pick in last year's draft. But his debut in the AZL (.297 BA, 12 K in 128 AB) looked strong and pre-draft comps suggested a potential starting-caliber MLB second baseman. What do evaluators feel about Freeman after his pro debut?

Teddy Cahill: Speaking of Tyler Freeman, he had a solid pro debut and did a lot of the things that he was expected to. I don’t think the evaluation changed much this summer. He was a bit divisive before the draft due to concerns about him staying at shortstop and, if he doesn’t, whether he’ll hit enough to profile at second base. The Indians obviously believe in him and we’ll get a better feel for Freeman’s potential after his first full pro season.

Elliot (Youngstown OH): Is there any way to assess McKenzie's future size and shape? Does projecting him as No. 2 starter mean you project him to be 20 or 30 pounds heavier?

Teddy Cahill: You can try, plenty have. I’m not sure how much bigger McKenzie will get, but he’s still just 20, so he could conceivably put on more weight. But, at this point, I’m also not sure it matters that much. He threw 150 innings in 2017 (including the playoffs) and they were 150 really good innings. He did a good job of holding his velo and he finished his starts strong. I think I spent too much time worrying about McKenzie’s build early in his career – going back to when he was a high school senior. He can really pitch and he’s making it work. He’s one of the most electric pitchers in the minors. That’s good enough for me.

Dan (Augusta, ME): Johnathan Rodriguez seemed to handle the GCL pretty well for a 17 year old. What kind of upside does he have? Thanks!

Teddy Cahill: Rodriguez had a pretty good pro debut. He was one of the youngest players in the draft class, and he more than held his own in the AZL. He’s still really raw and he’s probably going to move a little slower because of his age and experience. But he’s got the raw tools to eventually develop into a prototypical right fielder. Certainly one to keep an eye on.

Grant (NYC): What are your thoughts on Ernie Clement?

Teddy Cahill: He’s a good player and I think he checks a lot of boxes for the Indians. He’s got incredible contact skills – he struck out just 31 times in three years of college. He runs well, is a very smart player and has up-the-middle versatility. I don’t think he stays at shortstop, but he can play there sometimes, and you can also put him at second base or in center field. If he hits enough, he’ll find a way into the lineup.

Drew (Chicago): Julian Merryweather looks like a top prospect on paper until you look at his stats. What's holding him back?

Teddy Cahill: If you look at Merryweather’s peripherals at Columbus, they look a bit better than his overall stats. Some of it is that Columbus is a tough place to pitch, some of it is that he’s still learning to start. It’s not easy to pinpoint exactly why he struggled in the second half last year. But I think he’s a solid bounceback candidate in 2018.

Frank (Indianapolis, IN): How many of these prospects could make the BA 100?

Teddy Cahill: All right, as promised, the Top 100 question. The top three – Mejia, McKenzie and Bradley – are going to make it, I would figure. I would rank Nolan Jones in my personal top 100 and would consider Bieber. I do not expect, however, that Jones makes the Top 100 this winter. I think the some are taking a more conservative approach on him until he does it in full-season ball, which is understandable. But, for me, a .912 OPS in the Penn League as a 19-year-old is pretty loud.

Justin (Cleveland): It looks like Dalbert Siri has the arsenal to be a back of the bullpen reliever. Could he be a quick mover if he can hone his command a bit more?

Teddy Cahill: Siri has a chance. He’s got a live arm and some good stuff. I think in addition to improving his command, he’s got to improve the consistency of his stuff, especially his breaking ball, to really take off. But it’s in there, if he can just figure out how to do it on a more consistent basis.

Teddy Cahill: Thanks for all the questions today. Hopefully that helped break up the polar vortex. If you have more questions that I didn’t get to, drop them in the comments and I’ll try to get to them there. You wanted something that we offer, so make sure to order the 2018 Prospect Handbook. If you order directly from us (https://store.baseballamerica.com/collections/books/products/2018-baseball-america-prospect-handbook) you’ll get an extra prospect per team and it’ll ship faster.