Juan Soto Sweepstakes: Best Fits & Sleeper Team For Superstar Free Agent
Image credit: Juan Soto (Photo by Tom DiPace)
One year after Shohei Ohtani signed his record deal with the Dodgers, another premier free agent enters the marketplace in 2024 in slugging outfielder Juan Soto. Soto has put up historic numbers through his age-25 season and is arguably baseball’s best hitter.
Soto ranks seventh in home runs, fifth in runs, ninth in RBIs, first in walk rate, fourth in on-base percentage and seventh in wRC+ among post-integration area players through their age-25 season. Soto’s most similar batters through age-25 are Bryce Harper, Frank Robinson, Ken Griffey Jr. and Mike Trout, according to Baseball Reference. After helping the Yankees to the Fall Classic, Soto is one of only a handful of active players to play in multiple World Series and one of the youngest to win one.
Soto is likely to see something in the neighborhood of $500 to $600 million spread out across terms of 10 to 12 years. He’s expected to secure a monster contract for a potential future hall of famer entering his prime. This likely eliminates a large swath of teams unwilling to fork over the type of coin it will take to land a player of Soto’s caliber. The process has already begun with meetings expected to take place over the next few weeks with a handful of teams including the Blue Jays, Red Sox, Dodgers, Yankees and Mets.
Toronto Blue Jays
After their failed pursuit of Shohei Ohtani in 2024, Jays fans are likely reluctant to buy into the idea they can land Soto. Ohtani appeared to have a real chance of landing with the Blue Jays based on reports leading up to his decision. But the Jays could appeal to Soto for several reasons.
Despite a down season in 2024, the Jays still have a solid starting rotation, a strong top five in the lineup and a young superstar to pair with Juan Soto in Vladimir Guerrero Jr.. Both Bo Bichette and Guerrero Jr. have one year remaining on their contracts, meaning it’s make-or-break time for the Blue Jays’ “Golden Generation.”
If the Blue Jays were to land Soto it’s not out of the realm of possibility that they package Bichette for other reinforcements, though it’s more likely they trade Bichette if they don’t land Soto.
Toronto’s odds of landing Soto are likely the lowest of the teams reportedly involved. With an aging core of players around Guerrero and Bichette, it’s not the most attractive landing spot for a young superstar free agent.
Projected Blue Jays Lineup With Soto
| George Springer | RF |
| Juan Soto | LF |
| Vladimir Guerrero Jr. | 1B |
| Spencer Horwitz | DH |
| Bo Bichette | SS |
| Daulton Varsho | CF |
| Alejandro Kirk | C |
| Will Wagner | 2B |
| Ernie Clement | 3B |
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers are the new early-aughts Yankees. If a top player is available in the free agent market, the Dodgers are involved in negotiations. The reigning World Series champs are a wagon in every sense of the word. They boast baseball’s most talented lineup, one of the deepest and most effective pitching staffs and a perennial top-10 farm system.
At the moment, the Dodgers have openings in the outfielder corners pending the potential departure of Teoscar Hernandez. While homegrown options Andy Pages and James Outman have had their moments, Outman struggled through an all-time bad sophomore slump while Pages was up-and-down as a rookie in 2024.
The idea of the Dodgers adding the best player available in the market is a nightmare scenario for both their NL West counterparts and MLB as a whole. Imagine a lineup that features Shohei Ohtani, Juan Soto, Mookie Betts and Freddie Freeman within their top four?
Over the last three seasons, Ohtani, Soto, Freeman and Betts rank three, four, five and six in wRC+ respectively. The only top-five hitters not wearing Dodger blue are Aaron Judge and Yordan Alvarez. And did we mention the Dodgers are also considered the favorites to sign Roki Sasaki?
If there’s one drawback, adding Soto to the lineup would feature several below-average fielders and a handful of players playing out of position.
Projected Dodgers Lineup With Soto:
| Shohei Ohtani | DH |
| Juan Soto | RF |
| Mookie Betts | SS |
| Freddie Freeman | 1B |
| Will Smith | C |
| Max Muncy | 3B |
| Tommy Edman | CF |
| Gavin Lux | 2B |
| Andy Pages | LF |
New York Mets
Mets owner Steve Cohen fears no man or organization on the open market. He boasts the deepest pockets of any owner in the game and a willingness to dip into his wealth to secure the best players. However, we haven’t truly seen a mega-contract yet from Cohen, thoughFrancisco Lindor and Brandon Nimmo sit among the most highly-paid players in the game.
Stealing Soto from the crosstown rival Yankees and loading up for the challenge of a fully healthy Braves team should be enough motivation for Cohen to break the bank for Soto. From a team fit perspective, the Mets might have the weakest supporting cast of hitters, though there is some debate between the Mets and the Blue Jays. The Mets had one other hitter rank inside the top 50 in wRC+ in 2024 outside of Lindor: free agent first baseman Pete Alonso.
There’s likely no one holding Soto back from entering the outfield picture, but they could keep Nimmo, Taylor and Marte together and DH Soto. That would likely move Jeff McNeil to a super utility role or a timeshare with Luisangel Acuña at second base. The Mets do have a young core in Vientos, Alvarez, Acuna and Baty that could all take a step forward in the coming years, offering more projection in their core than many other clubs.
Projected Mets Lineup With Soto:
| Francisco Lindor | SS |
| Juan Soto | DH |
| Mark Vientos | 1B |
| Brandon Nimmo | LF |
| Starling Marte | RF |
| Tyrone Taylor | CF |
| Brett Baty | 3B |
| Francisco Alvarez | C |
| Jeff McNeil | 2B |
Boston Red Sox
The buzz around Boston’s pursuit of Soto is louder than in past years. Red Sox ownership has recently avoided the big-spending ways that marked the early years of their tenure. Coming off a surprisingly competitive 2024 season, the Red Sox are in prime position to take another step forward in 2025.
The AL East is the best division in baseball and boasts five teams that all enter the season with reasonable playoff aspirations. The Red Sox have a good young lineup that’s set to get better in 2025 with the likely additions of infielder Kristian Campbell and current No. 1 overall prospect in outfielder Roman Anthony. All this to say, the Red Sox are flush with outfield options.
This has led to some reports trickling out that the Red Sox view Soto as their long-term DH and have no intentions of putting him into the outfield mix consistently. The Red Sox lineup with Soto could boast the best “on paper” group in the league, with plenty of protection for Rafael Devers, something the slugger has lacked since the departures of Mookie Betts, Xander Bogaerts and J.D. Martinez.
The Red Sox signing Soto would set off a chain reaction of potential moves in the trade market for pitching. With Soto in the mix and Roman Anthony looming, both Wilyer Abreu and a resurgent Masataka Yoshida could be packaged with one of multiple prospects to return starters. You can throw 2024 breakout David Hamilton into the mix of young controllable assets that could be a fit for potential sellers.
For the first time in years the Red Sox enter the marketplace as potential buyers for top-end players with assets to move in trade.
Projected Red Sox Lineup With Soto:
| Jarren Duran | LF |
| Juan Soto | DH |
| Rafael Devers | 3B |
| Triston Casas | 1B |
| Trevor Story | SS |
| Krisitan Campbell | 2B |
| Wilyer Abreu | RF |
| Connor Wong | C |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | CF |
New York Yankees
We’ve seen what Soto can do for a talented Yankees lineup and their homegrown superstar in Aaron Judge. Now, it’s a matter of determining how far ownership is willing to go to keep Soto in pinstripes.
Soto’s chances of walking away in free agency under George Steinbrenner would’ve been nearly zero. But under Hal Steinbrenner and the kids, that hasn’t always been the case. That’s not to say that the Yankees can’t match any offer that comes across Soto’s agent Scott Boras’ desk. Boras knows this, and with the Yankees’ three primary rivals at the moment scheduled to meet with Soto, the pressure is on Brian Cashman and company to get a deal done and avoid yielding any ground to AL East competitors.
New York’s lineup looks significantly different than the one that took them to the World Series if they fail to retain Soto. Jazz Chisholm slides up to the two-hole in the lineup previously occupied by Soto and likely places Anthony Volpe in the leadoff spot. By simply slotting Soto in, Volpe slides down the lineup card to the bottom half and the middle of the Yankees order looks far more fearsome.
Beyond Soto the Yankees have to figure out upgrades at the infield corners where current options DJ LeMahieu and Oswaldo Cabrera offer below replacement-level production.
Projected Yankees Lineup With Soto
| Jazz Chisholm | 2B |
| Juan Soto | RF |
| Aaron Judge | CF |
| Austin Wells | C |
| Giancarlo Stanton | DH |
| Anthony Volpe | SS |
| Jasson Dominguez | LF |
| DJ LeMahieu | 1B |
| Oswaldo Cabrera | 3B |
A Fun ‘What If’ To Imagine … The Tigers
The Tigers were resurgent in 2024 and, frankly, it seems like a resurgent time for Michigan sports thanks to a once-in-a-generation competitive Lions team, the reigning NCAA football champion and now a rising Tigers team. While the Tigers last splash into free agency failed in Javy Baez, his three years and remaining $72 million is the only Tigers contract with an AAV of $11 million or higher. The Tigers have a projected payroll under $100 million heading into 2025.
Maybe no 2024 playoff team would benefit more from the addition of Soto. He’d slide right into the No. 2 spot in the lineup and replace Matt Vierling in right field. In this scenario, Vierling moves to a more natural role as a super utility player who could start at first, second or third base, while spelling all three outfield positions. This moves Kerry Carpenter into the three hole while Riley Greene remains the cleanup hitter.
The Tigers lineup listed below would have an average age of 25 with some runway to improve together over the next three to five seasons. Add a top-of-the-rotation led by future Cy Young winner Tarik Skubal and the current top pitching prospect in the game, Jackson Jobe, and you have the bones for a strong lineup, in a big enough market to support spending beyond Soto’s titanic hypothetical contract.
Projected Tigers Lineup With Soto
| Parker Meadows | CF |
| Kerry Carpenter | DH |
| Juan Soto | RF |
| Riley Greene | LF |
| Colt Keith | 2B |
| Spencer Torkelson | 1B |
| Jace Jung | 3B |
| Trey Sweeney | SS |
| Jake Rogers | C |
Handicapping The Odds
There are five teams officially in the mix for Soto right now, but the three with the highest likelihood of landing him are the Yankees, Dodgers and Mets. They were three of the last four teams active in 2024 and all have deep pockets. For Soto, joining any likely means less limitations in terms of building out and paying a supporting cast.
The Red Sox offer an enticing fit, but it’s unlikely he’d join them if the contract terms are equal to the aforementioned frontrunners. Stranger things have certainly happened, and Soto reportedly grew up a Red Sox fan, so I can’t shut the door on the idea completely. But the Fenway Sports Group has shown a reluctance to spend for contracts in this range.
The Blue Jays, while a nice idea, tumbled backwards in 2024. They offer very little upside outside of a potential pairing with Guerrero. With Bichette and Guerrero in the last year of their respective deals, are the Blue Jays willing to pay multiple mega deals with decade-long terms and AAVs north of $30 million for multiple players? That’s a question I can’t answer.
While the Padres, Rays and others have all reportedly kicked the tires on Soto early in the process, they all rank as darkhorse candidates with extremely low likelihoods of landing the desired free agent.
