One Key Number Points To Likely Stardom For Jackson Chourio
Image credit: Jackson Chourio (Photo by John Fisher/Getty Images)
For the number 20 in baseball, it’s all about perspective.
On a scouting report, a 20 is anathema. It’s the lowest grade on the scouting scale.
But for a big league hitter, the number 20 in his age column is a beacon signaling future success. Wild success, in almost every case.
Brewers outfielder Jackson Chourio played the entire 2024 season as a 20-year-old. He doesn’t turn 21 until spring training next year.
Chourio made Milwaukee’s Opening Day roster. He played most every day and hit 21 home runs and stole 22 bases. He was worth about 4 WAR. His .914 OPS in the second half ranked 12th highest in baseball. He hit two home runs in one Wild Card Series game and is one of the youngest players ever to go deep in a postseason game.
Chourio’s list of rookie accomplishments goes on like that.
While he wasn’t the most productive age-20 position player in recent history, his rookie output places him in elite company.
Since 1980, a total of 17 players have batted at least 450 times in their age-20 season. Chourio ranks eighth on that list in terms of wRC+ and ninth in fWAR. In the bigger picture, his success as a 20-year-old big leaguer all but guarantees future success, while stardom is highly likely.
Literally every one of the 16 previous players who was an MLB regular as a 20-year-old went on to play in an All-Star Game.
Most Future All-Star Games
20-year-old MLB regulars since 1980
14: Alex Rodriguez, Ivan Rodriguez
13: Ken Griffey Jr.
12: Roberto Alomar
11: Mike Trout*
8: Bryce Harper*
6: Manny Machado*
5: Andruw Jones, Edgar Renteria
4: Ronald Acuña Jr.*, Adrian Beltre, Starlin Castro, Vladimir Guerrero Jr.*, Juan Soto*,
2: Elvis Andrus
1: Jason Heyward*
* Player was active in 2024
Note: Griffey, Harper, Renteria and Soto also were MLB regulars as 19-year-olds
Roberto Alomar, Adrian Beltre, Ken Griffey Jr. and Ivan Rodriguez are Hall of Famers. Alex Rodriguez put up HOF numbers. Andruw Jones appears on his eighth writers’ ballot this year.
Mike Trout, Bryce Harper and Manny Machado are three of the strongest active Hall of Fame bets. Ronald Acuña Jr., Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Juan Soto could one day say the same.
Edgar Renteria doesn’t measure up to the others, but he was still a five-time all-star, a two-time World Series champion and the most accomplished player from Colombia in history.
Elvis Andrus and Jason Heyward compiled a ton of value with their gloves and were average hitters at their positions in their 20s. They were compensated handsomely for their services.
Starlin Castro is pretty clearly the “worst” 20-year-old regular of the past 45 years—in terms of future value—but even he made four all-star teams, led the National League with 207 hits in 2011 and finished with about 18 WAR.
Loosening the playing time restriction to 300 PA as a 20-year-old since 1980 introduces future stars such as Fernando Tatis Jr., Carlos Correa, Wander Franco, Giancarlo Stanton, Justin Upton, Miguel Cabrera and Gary Sheffield. All-stars all.
It won’t be long before Chourio can say the same.
What About 21-Year-Olds Like Jackson Merrill?
Players who perform at a high level as 21-year-old big league regulars also go on to become MLB high achievers in almost all cases.
Padres rookie center fielder Jackson Merrill is the latest to test the thesis.
His 130 wRC+ this season is the 10th best since 1980 for a 21-year-old player with at least 450 plate appearances. Every player ranked the top 19 by this measure appeared in at least one All-Star Game, including Merrill himself.
Top wRC+
21-year-old MLB regulars since 1980
176 Mike Trout, 2013
159 Albert Pujols, 2001
148 Julio Rodriguez, 2022
148 Ken Griffey Jr., 1991
141 Giancarlo Stanton, 2011
138 Cody Bellinger, 2017
136 Rickey Henderson, 1980
131 Tom Brunansky, 1982
131 Darryl Strawberry, 1983
130 Jackson Merrill, 2024
130 Justin Upton, 2009
129 Miguel Cabrera, 2004
125 Ronald Acuña Jr., 2019
123 Carlos Correa, 2016
121 Gleyber Torres, 2018
120 Freddie Freeman, 2011
119 Alex Rodriguez, 1997
118 Juan Gonzalez, 1991
118 Gary Sheffield, 1990
117 Delino DeShields, 1990
As far as leading indicators for success go, this is an enviable peer group for Merrill to belong to as a 21-year-old big league regular.
However, simply playing every day as a 21-year-old is not an automatic ticket to stardom. Just ask Luis Rivas, Mike Caruso, Nomar Mazara, Delmon Young, Wil Cordero and Junior Felix, all 21-year-old regulars who retired with 6 fWAR or less.
