5 Arizona Fall League Prospects With MLB Potential Flying Under The Radar
Image credit: Samy Natera Jr. (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
If you’re an avid follower of the Arizona Fall League, you know the kind of big leaguers it produces. This World Series alone features AFL alums Mookie Betts, Aaron Judge, Giancarlo Stanton, Freddie Freeman and Will Smith.
Those are the stars, but plenty of other players dotting playoff rosters spent time in the desert as prospects. Dodgers reliever Alex Vesia is one. So is his bullpen-mate Evan Phillips. Yankees closer Luke Weaver pitched in the Fall League, as did lefty Tim Mayza and catcher Jose Trevino.
The players in this year’s AFL who could fit into the future star category are fairly obvious: Mariners shortstop Colt Emerson, Padres catcher Ethan Salas and Giants first baseman Bryce Eldridge all have that kind of potential.
Undoubtedly, the league will produce players who never come close to a Top 100 list or make an all-star roster but nevertheless settle into long-term roles in the big leagues. Here are five players from this year’s AFL ranks who come to mind for that profile.
1. T.J. Brock, RHP, Blue Jays
In terms of bullying hitters, few in the Fall League are better than Brock. The 25-year-old Ohio State alum comes right at hitters with two pitches: a mid-90s fastball and a say-your-prayers slider. Injuries limited Brock to just 11.1 innings during the regular season, but he still managed to rack up 20 punch outs in that time. For his career, he has struck out 129 hitters in 76.1 innings. His first four Fall League appearances have yielded just two hits, a walk and eight strikeouts.
Perhaps the best example of Brock’s dominance came in an outing at Peoria. Against the first batter, Padres prospect Romeo Sanabria, Brock threw three sliders and got three whiffs. The next man, Braves infielder David McCabe, struck out, as well, flailing at a pair of sliders in the process. Last up was Marlins outfielder Kemp Alderman. He met the same fate as the two hitters before him, adding another pair of swings and misses. In all, Brock threw 14 pitches and got seven whiffs.
2. Jackson Lancaster, LHP, Rays
Lancaster pitched two years at Missouri and one at Louisiana Tech but went undrafted in 2023. Instead, he latched on with Ogden of the independent Pioneer League, and the Rays signed him as a free agent the following May. His numbers as a pro have not sparkled. In two seasons, the lefthander is 2-9, 5.02 with 60 hits and 29 walks allowed in 61 innings, all spent at the lower levels of the minor leagues. Still, he’s racked up 90 strikeouts in that time and averages 13.3 per nine innings.
Lancaster’s most effective weapon is his mid-80s slider, which he can throw for strikes or bury at the back foot of a righthander. He threw the pitch 268 times in the regular season and got a miss rate of roughly 56%. Among pitchers who threw their sliders more than 250 times in 2024, just 21 finished with miss rates higher than Lancaster’s mark. He still needs to iron out his control, and at 25 he was clearly old for his levels, but in a recent outing his stuff was enough to coax strikeouts from a pair of big leaguers—Matt McLain and Thomas Saggese—as well as prospects Zyhir Hope and Edwin Arroyo.
3. Samy Natera Jr., LHP, Angels
Through three outings, Natera remains unscathed in the desert. The southpaw pitched three seasons at New Mexico State and one summer in the Cape Cod League before Los Angeles popped him in the 17th round of the 2022 draft. He reached Double-A Rocket City in his first pro season, then returned to High-A Tri-City in 2024, where he made just five appearances—two starts—in a year limited by injuries. He’s allowed just one hit and has struck out eight through his first three Fall League starts.
The southpaw works with a pair of boring fastballs, a sweeping slider, a cutter and an occasional changeup. His delivery is funky and violent, adding an element of deception to his mix. Natera will be 25 next season, but he’s thrown just 105.2 innings in the regular season, meaning his developmental road might be longer than his age would suggest. Still, his stuff is good enough to one day reach the big leagues if he can become more consistent.
4. Marc Church, RHP, Rangers
This one is cheating a little bit, since Church has already reached the big leagues. He missed most of the 2024 season with a lat injury but recovered to pitch 25.2 innings in the minors and one appearance with Texas. He absolutely needs to be more consistent, but at his best, he has the pitch mix to be dominant. Church works with two pitches—a mid-90s fastball and a mid-80s slider—with a ton of movement on each. The fastball averaged nearly 18 inches of induced vertical break in 2024, and the slider showed a combination of depth and sweep away from righthanders.
Church’s mix is amplified by more than 6.5 feet of extension in his delivery. His command and control have wavered throughout his career, but he has still punched out nearly 13 hitters per nine innings during his time in the minor leagues. With a more consistent, higher-quality strikes, Church could become a regular in the Rangers’ bullpen.
5. Creed Willems, C, Orioles
Willems played just 98 games this season, but he proved he could impact the baseball as well as anybody in the system. Among Orioles prospects with 350 or more plate appearances, Willems’ 90th percentile exit velocity of 106 mph ranked fourth behind Thomas Sosa, Samuel Basallo and Coby Mayo. Two of those players rank among BA’s Top 100 prospects. He also does an excellent job at pulling the ball in the air, with a clip of nearly 40% in that department.
There are some wrinkles to iron out, too. Willems’ swing rate of nearly 54% was the second-highest among the same group of Orioles prospects with 350 or more PAs, and his miss rates both in and out of the zone are a touch on the high side. Willems has work to do behind the plate, and he has seen plenty of time at first base, but his foundation as one of the best ballstrikers in the organization is established.
