Minor League Hitters To Target Whose 2024 Statcast Data Compares Most Favorably With Top MLB Prospects
Image credit: Felnin Celesten (Photo by Bill Mitchell)
With Statcast data for 2024, we can compare specific clusters of metrics for players to find other players who fall within (or near enough to) the same cluster.
For example, we can look at a given hitter’s combination of Contact%, IZ-contact%, Chase% and xwOBAcon and search for other hitters within the same age range to find potentially intriguing names. You may note that I did not include 90th percentile exit velocity here. Instead, we use xwOBAcon, which considers the totality of exit velocity and launch angle.
Actual performance, such as home runs, is not compared at all—this is by design. We are merely looking at some of the underlying components that help inform the expected actual performance.
Lastly, it is important to note that stolen bases, or underlying speed, are also not considered at all in this exercise. Therefore, do not view this as a proxy for a “player comp,” but rather, an exercise in finding other players who share a similar clusters of Statcast metrics that reasonably correlate to future wRC+.
James Wood, OF, Nationals
As an example, earlier this season Wood was our No. 1 prospect in his age-21 season. In Triple-A, he had a contact rate of 74%, an in-zone contact rate of 85%, a chase rate of 25% and an xwOBAcon of 0.400. If we look at all minor league hitters who were 22 years old or younger and had a contact rate of at least 71% and had an in-zone contact rate of at least 82% and had a chase rate of no more than 28% and had an xwOBAcon of at least 0.350, we see a list consisting of the following:
| Name | Level | Age | Miss% | IZ-Miss% | Chase% | xwOBAcon | 90th EV |
| James Wood | AAA | 21 | 26% | 15% | 25% | .400 | 109 mph |
| Junior Caminero | AAA | 20 | 25% | 17% | 27% | .384 | 109 mph |
| Roman Anthony | AAA | 20 | 25% | 17% | 21% | .368 | 108 mph |
| Agustin Ramirez | AAA | 22 | 25% | 17% | 26% | .378 | 108 mph |
| Jeral Perez | Low-A | 19 | 24% | 15% | 25% | .359 | 104 mph |
| Rayne Doncon | High-A | 20 | 26% | 16% | 26% | .354 | 104 mph |
| Ramon Ramirez | Complex | 19 | 24% | 13% | 26% | .371 | 105 mph |
| Angel Cepeda | Complex | 18 | 28% | 18% | 24% | .371 | 102 mph |
Setting aside Junior Caminero, another former No. 1 prospect, we see the current No. 1 prospect, Roman Anthony, having some of the most similar Statcast metrics to Wood. They both have huge exit velocities, though you can see that the higher ground ball rate of Anthony seems to be resulting in a lower xwOBAcon. Another difference is that the Red Sox outfielder does show far less of a propensity to swing at pitches outside the zone.
Agustin Ramirez (Marlins) and Jeral Perez (White Sox) were both traded at the deadline this season. Ramirez did his damage in the upper levels and is one year older than Wood, whereas Perez is younger than the Nationals outfielder but only played in the lower levels all season. Although his power is not as huge as the others, Perez was a teenager in 2024 and should be expected to add some ticks to his exit velocities. With Perez starting the season on fire but tailing off in the second half, his perceived value may have sagged amongst your fantasy league-mates. His Statcast data begs to differ.
Rayne Doncon (Twins) is another former Dodger international signee, but he had a much quieter year than Perez in the fantasy sphere. However, in direct comparison to Perez, he generally matched him blow-for-blow, essentially washing out the fact that he is one year older than Perez by playing mostly one level higher. It seems like Doncon is an intriguing prospect flier for 2025.
Finally, two lower level prospects show up on this filter: Ramon Ramirez (Royals), a catcher who had some preseason buzz coming into 2024 and added three mph to his his already above-average 102 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and Angel Cepeda (Cubs), an athletic infielder with above-average speed. This entire exercise is to potentially unearth some preseason sleepers and these are two names that fit the bill.
Roman Anthony, OF, Red Sox
Since Anthony is our current top prospect, let’s see who comps closely to his cluster of Statcast skills, which feature a chase rate better than Wood’s, though with slightly attenuated game power metrics. To further refine the output, I also added a filter of +/- 10% to Anthony’s hard-hit rate, where 53% of his balls in play left the bat at an exit velocity of 95 mph or faster:
| Name | Level | Age | Miss% | IZ-Miss% | Chase% | xwOBAcon | 90th EV |
| Roman Anthony | AAA | 20 | 25% | 17% | 21% | .368 | 108 mph |
| Carter Jensen | Double-A | 20 | 27% | 18% | 22% | .352 | 105 mph |
| Felnin Celesten | Complex | 18 | 23% | 19% | 22% | .376 | 104 mph |
Interestingly, Carter Jensen (Royals), a catcher who finished the season as the 13th-ranked hitter at the Double-A level per RoboScout, appears here. Seeing his underlying Statcast data, it’s clear why RoboScout was so enamored. Go get Carter.
Because of his 63% groundball rate at the complex, I was surprised to see Felnin Celesten (Mariners) appear here, as I thought his xwOBAcon would have been lower with an average launch angle of 2.2 degrees. Apparently, though, the 18-year-old shortstop has been pairing his big thumps with optimal launch angles. Celesten is universally viewed as a top 100 fantasy prospect, and the underlying data, despite the high ground ball rate, definitely seems to agree.
Kristian Campbell, OF, Red Sox
Campbell was our 2024 Minor League Player of the Year, as the Georgia Tech alumnus flew through three levels and finds himself to be on the cusp of a major league debut. Like Wood and Anthony, Campbell pairs huge power with average contact but chases far less than the other two sluggers:
| Name | Level | Age | Miss% | IZ-Miss% | Chase% | xwOBAcon | 90th EV |
| Kristian Campbell | AAA | 22 | 22% | 17% | 21% | .422 | 106 mph |
| Dalton Rushing | AAA | 23 | 24% | 17% | 19% | .417 | 106 mph |
| Kyle Manzardo | AAA | 23 | 22% | 16% | 22% | .386 | 105 mph |
| Alex Freeland | AAA | 22 | 22% | 17% | 18% | .382 | 104 mph |
| Cam Smith | Double-A | 21 | 23% | 16% | 23% | .397 | 106 mph |
| Aroon Escobar | Complex | 19 | 20% | 16% | 18% | .387 | 104 mph |
| Felnin Celesten | Complex | 18 | 23% | 19% | 22% | .376 | 104 mph |
Dalton Rushing (Dodgers) and Kyle Manzardo (Guardians) are both above-average hit tool and power prospects, and are both considered locks to be major league regulars.
Alex Freeland (Dodgers) might surprise some as having similar hit tool characteristics (though with slightly less thump), but the top 100 prospect plays excellent shortstop defense. In other words, Freeland might be undervalued.
Cam Smith (Cubs) came out of the gates on fire in his professional debut after the draft, also advancing through three levels and finishing in Double-A. On the season, he hit .313/.396/.609 with seven home runs in 134 plate appearances. Keeping in mind that, with the small sample size, we can expect some regression in 2025, but the underlying data is clearly excellent. A very auspicious debut for the infield slugger.
Earlier this season, Geoff Pontes highlighted Aroon Escobar (Phillies), and the above table just underscores even further why. He is definitely a name to take a flier on for 2025.
In that very same article, we again find Celesten. Again, he’s already viewed as a top 100 fantasy prospect, so the fact that, at 18 years old, he appears in Statcast data clusters shared by other celebrated prospects bodes extremely well for continued ascension.
Kevin McGonigle, SS, Tigers
We’ve taken a look at some hitters with elite power, so let’s switch gears and look at some potential similarity clusters for hitters with elite contact skills. McGonigle showed one of the better hit tools in the minor leagues in 2024, and after being one of the biggest risers of the year, he currently is the No. 22 prospect in our Top 100.
Note that to narrow the output, I only included hitters who shared the Statcast metrics cluster but also had a 90th percentile exit velocity higher than 101 mph or better. This eliminated Starlyn Caba (Phillies) but for comparison, I have added him into the table below, as he maps quite closely in every other regard:
| Name | Level | Age | Miss% | IZ-Miss% | Chase% | xwOBAcon | 90th EV |
| Kevin McGonigle | High-A | 19 | 12% | 8% | 18% | .295 | 103 mph |
| Jesus Made | DSL | 17 | 11% | 8% | 15% | .361 | 104 mph |
| Starlyn Caba | Low-A | 18 | 14% | 7% | 16% | .276 | 98 mph |
Interestingly, the only other name who clustered within the same hit tool metrics as McGonigle is 17-year-old Jesus Made (Brewers). Because he is so young, his 90th percentile exit velocity should be expected to increase by a few ticks over the next several years and may end up in the 108 mph area by the time he leaves his teenage years. The fact that he also has such an elite hit tool is, as shown here, what has led to the enthusiasm about his future within the industry. He will debut stateside next year, reportedly in Low-A, on the Jackson Chourio track.
Again, Caba shows a similar hit tool and xwOBAcon to McGonigle but doesn’t quite have the same raw power, as 98 mph is below average for Low-A 90th percentile EV. Comparatively, the 103 mph mark that McGonigle infielder rung up is better than average. Nonetheless, I thought it was interesting to show the similarities between the two here.
For interest’s sake, if we expand the filter to include higher-level hitters up to 22-years old, two new names appear showing a similarly unique set of Statcast metrics:
| Name | Level | Age | Miss% | IZ-Miss% | Chase% | xwOBAcon | 90th EV |
| Kevin McGonigle | High-A | 19 | 12% | 8% | 18% | .295 | 103 mph |
| Jesus Made | DSL | 17 | 11% | 8% | 15% | .361 | 104 mph |
| Starlyn Caba | Low-A | 18 | 14% | 7% | 16% | .276 | 98 mph |
| Chase DeLauter | AAA | 22 | 13% | 8% | 21% | .360 | 104 mph |
| Chase Meidroth | AAA | 22 | 12% | 8% | 17% | .321 | 102 mph |
Chase Meidroth (Red Sox), who is three years older than McGonigle and two levels higher, is on the cusp of debuting in Boston. Chase De Lauter (Guardians) will no doubt be roaming the Cleveland outfield in 2025, assuming health.
Demetrio Crisantes, SS, Diamondbacks
Another huge riser in 2024 who made it to Low-A as a 19-year-old by showing an excellent hit tool and solid exit velocities was Crisantes, whose Statcast cluster is comprised of the following hitters:
| Name | Level | Age | Miss% | IZ-Miss% | Chase% | xwOBAcon | 90th EV |
| Demetrio Crisantes | Low-A | 19 | 18% | 11% | 23% | .382 | 102 mph |
| Colt Emerson | High-A | 18 | 18% | 13% | 18% | .337 | 102 mph |
| Edgleen Perez | Complex | 18 | 17% | 14% | 8% | .361 | 101 mph |
| Engelth Urena | Complex | 19 | 16% | 12% | 16% | .373 | 102 mph |
| Arnaldo Lantigua | DSL | 18 | 21% | 12% | 16% | .392 | 104 mph |
Colt Emerson (Mariners) is our 11th-ranked prospect who is currently tearing it up in the Arizona Fall League. We can see why as he has a very similar Statcast profile to Crisantes, despite being a year younger and reaching one level higher. One thing to note is that Emerson’s .337 xwOBAcon was just slightly better than average for the level, whereas everyone else on this list has an expected wOBA on contact that is one standard deviation higher than average for their levels.
It is interesting that a pair of Yankees catchers at the complex, Edgleen Perez and Engelth Urena, appear with a similar Statcast profile to Crisantes. Both are considered above average defensively behind the plate. Along with Yankees minor league player of the year, Rafael Flores, the Yankees have a wealth of backstop prospects even after trading Agustin Ramirez at the trade deadline.
One caveat about the final name on the list, Arnaldo Lantigua (Dodgers), is that he is an 18-year-old repeating in the Dominican Summer League. That said, Lantigua has been discussed surprisingly regularly this season. He was identified by Geoff in August as having standout data and then, after the DSL season concluded, Ben Badler wrote how he stood out. Sure to be stateside in 2025, Lantigua may be one of the exceptions to the unwritten rule to ignore DSL prospects who are not 17 years old or younger.
