Spectacular Postseason For Mets’ Mark Vientos Shines Light on Breakout 2024 Season
Image credit: Mark Vientos (Photo by Harry How/Getty Images)
A lot has to go right for a team to climb out of a 24-35 hole on June 2 and make it to the NLCS. The Mets pulled it off through the help of a B-list McDonald’s character, a viral sensation “influencer,” a rap song by one of their players, and a playoff pumpkin.
The emergence of 24-year-old Mark Vientos becoming one of the best offensive third basemen in the league probably helped, as well.
So far this postseason, Vientos is hitting .370 in 46 at-bats with four home runs and 12 runs driven in. He homered again Thursday and was a lone bright spot in the Mets’ Game 4 loss to the Dodgers.
Here’s our 2023 scouting report on Vientos entering 2023, when he ranked as the Mets’ No. 7 prospect in the organization:
“Vientos’ game is predicated on power, as is his future role. He shows plus raw power to all fields and even hit his first MLB home run the other way, but he doesn’t get to that power as much as he could because of his approach. Vientos chases too much and misses in the zone too much to hit for a high average, though he showed a healthy walk rate at Triple-A and in MLB. He struggled to impact righthanded pitchers in 2022, giving up nearly 375 OPS points at Triple-A. If it persists it could point to more of a platoon or part-time role. Drafted as a shortstop, Vientos moved to third base early in his pro career but will struggle to stick there in the big leagues. He throws well but has a thick lower half, below-average speed and substandard range. First base is his most likely position.”
Through 274 plate appearances across 2022-23, Vientos hit just .205/.255/.354 with a 30% strikeout rate and a 68 wRC+. To begin 2024, Brett Baty received the first chance at extended playtime at the hot corner.
Vientos joined the Mets for good in mid-May, and he hasn’t looked back. Here’s how he ranks among third basemen with at least 450 PAs in 2024:
Vientos’ OBP/SLG balance shows he’s more of a slugger than an on-base threat. Given the questions about his hit tool while progressing through the minors, what does this mean for his future outlook?
We’ll start by looking at what he does best: rake.
Among third basemen, only Austin Riley had a higher barrel% than Vientos this year, and among all hitters with at least 450 PAs, Vientos had the 19th-highest barrel rate in MLB. He ranked just ahead of Vladimir Guerrero Jr. and Francisco Lindor. That isn’t to say he’s at the same level as those players, but it highlights his strongest trait as a hitter.
That barrel rate helped lead to an 85th percentile expected slugging percentage. Vientos “over-performed” his power metrics in this regard, but he didn’t do so by pulling a high number of fly balls, which can usually explain the difference.
The good news is Viento’s power is legit. And it plays to all fields:
When the 24-year-old makes contact, he’s elite.
However, using the same 450 PA threshold, only ten batters had a higher K% in 2024. Players with similar strikeout and barrel rates include Teoscar Hernández and Colton Cowser, so he isn’t on an island.
Here’s Vientos’ rolling K% from the past two seasons, alongside his production. Predictably, the best stretch in his career came when the strikeouts occurred least often:
Vientos’ high K% stems from both chase concerns and whiff issues. Per Baseball Savant, Vientos’ chase rate was in the 24th percentile, while his whiff rate was in the bottom-fourth percentile.
In 2023 (min. 200 PA), Vientos had the 11th-highest swinging strike rate via Sports Info Solutions. He still had a top 10 mark in ‘2024 when adjusted for his playing time, but it improved from 18% to 16%.
Per Statcast, this was driven by a clear downward trend in his chase rate:
Statcast also had Vientos’ zone-swing% as identical between last year and this year, which means all the improvement in his swing decisions stemmed from chasing less. This helps explain his barrel% boost—Vientos gave himself more opportunities to tap into his impressive power.
The spike in chase rate at the end of this graph occurred in September, which happened to be Vientos’ worst month at the plate:
It’s important to remember that despite all the improvement, Vientos’ swing decisions and contact abilities were still bottom of the league. Presently, Vientos is a one-dimensional hitter. He’s excellent at what he does, which might be enough, but to become a perennial slugger, he’ll need counters when pitchers attack him differently.
There’s downside risk, as any offensive regression could make Vientos unplayable for the Mets when considering his reputation with the glove. Yet, there’s also an upside, as further chase rate improvements could unlock another level for him.
A great example of this type of profile eventually figuring things out is the Braves’ Riley, who had an outrageous 20.7 SwStr% as a rookie in 2019. He improved his chase rate the following summer and, by 2021, had married his power and newfound selectiveness. The swing decisions have kept improving ever since.
Vientos’ postseason performance is adding shine to a spectacular breakout campaign. His journey has been fun to follow, dating back to his days as a prospect. He proved he could play in 2024. What happens next will determine if he can reach perennial slugger status.
