Underrated MLB Pitching Prospects To Target According To RoboScout
Image credit: Cameron Weston (Mike Janes/Four Seam Images)
All season we’ve talked about pitchers at every level who have caught RoboScout’s eye. More often than not, the best performers are…well, the best prospects. Or, if they weren’t considered a top prospect already, their performances are often a precursor to them improving their fantasy stock while the industry catches up. Hopefully you’ve been able to take advantage of RoboScout’s insights to be able to stock up your dynasty teams.
In some cases, despite the performance, industry regard steadfastly lags behind a pitcher’s performance or “stuff.” There are many potential reasons for this. For example, the performance may not be viewed as representative of the pitcher’s true talent due to a small sample size, over-performance of peripheral metrics or because it’s been merely assigned as random variance. In other cases, from an in-person scouting point of view, there may be makeup issues or a lack of athleticism, which generally suppresses the perception of the prospect.
These latter cases are not observable by RoboScout and could arguably be the introduction of an unfair human bias. As famously said in Moneyball, we’re not selling jeans here.
Today, we’re highlighting some pitchers RoboScout considers underrated. That is to say, instances in which a pitcher’s surface stats in 2024 or underlying Stuff+ from the model portend potential future success that exceeds the expectations suggested by the industry’s perception of the pitcher.
Underrated MLB Hitting Prospects To Target According To RoboScout
RoboScout digs into the numbers to identify fantasy hitting targets that are being undervalued on MLB prospect lists.
As a dynasty or fantasy manager, because these pitchers are already under-regarded by the fantasy industry, they do not have high “trade value” in dynasty leagues. Instead, because these pitchers show the traits that often portend future success, they are good options to ask to be included as “throw-ins” in a trade or deep fliers.
K.C. Hunt, RHP, Brewers
When we looked at K.C. Hunt’s arsenal last month, we saw that he had a five-pitch mix with each pitch grading as average or better based on whiff and chase rate, compared to average for the level.
He finished the season as the No. 10 pitcher in High-A and the No. 8 pitcher in Double-A, landing just ahead of Bubba Chandler of the Pirates at the latter level. Chandler is, of course, the more highly-regarded prospect, on account of the fact that he is 21 years old, has elite athleticism and possesses a freakish arsenal fronted by a 97-mph fastball. Still, when comparing their Double-A results, Hunt arguably performed better, justifying his RoboScout ranking:
| Player | Age | IP (AA) | K% | BB% | WHIP | xFIP | GB% | SwStrk% |
| K.C. Hunt | 23 | 32.2 | 30% | 7% | 1.01 | 2.66 | 44% | 17% |
| Bubba Chandler | 21 | 80.1 | 29% | 8% | 1.01 | 3.26 | 41% | 13% |
From his performance across three levels and 102 innings, Hunt projects to have a 1.21 WHIP and 3.80 ERA at peak in the major leagues. That’s the potential of a top-45 fantasy pitching prospect.
Ben Shields, LHP, Yankees
Another pitcher from the same article as Hunt, Yankees left hander Ben Shields closed out the season ranking 15th at Double A, two spots behind Rockies top prospect Chase Dollander.
Here is a comparison of their raw surface stats across both High-A and Double-A, where they both finished the season:
| Player | Age | IP (A+ and AA) | K% | BB% | WHIP | xFIP | GB% | SwStrk% |
| Ben Shields | 25 | 104.0 | 32% | 7% | 1.03 | 2.88 | 48% | 15% |
| Chase Dollander | 22 | 118.0 | 34% | 9% | 1.19 | 3.24 | 36% | 16% |
There is a large age discrepancy between the two pitchers, not to mention that Dollander has some of the best stuff in the minor leagues. But when one considers that Shields has shown better command and has a near-50% ground ball rate, their peak projections are actually a lot closer than one might imagine, even when accounting for aging curves. And this does not even consider that Dollander will be pitching half of his games in the rarefied air of Colorado. Although I am not suggesting to trade Dollander for Shields, especially when considering their ceilings, the median fantasy projection gap between the two is likely much smaller than you might think.
Cameron Weston, RHP, Orioles
Finishing the 2024 season as the 24th best pitcher in Double-A per RoboScout was Orioles righthander Cameron Weston, who was sandwiched between Caden Dana (Angels) and Winston Santos (Rangers), both of whom are universally viewed as more desirable dynasty pitching assets.
From their surface stats, it’s easy to see why they are clustered together, as they put up similar results:
| Player | Age | IP (AA) | K% | BB% | WHIP | xFIP | GB% | SwStrk% |
| Caden Dana | 20 | 135.0 | 27% | 7% | 0.94 | 3.44 | 36% | 13% |
| Cameron Weston | 23 | 92.1 | 28% | 7% | 1.04 | 3.28 | 45% | 15% |
| Winston Santos | 22 | 46.0 | 30% | 7% | 1.15 | 3.63 | 29% | 16% |
Underneath the hood, Weston has a three-pitch mix from a low release height fronted by a 91-mph two-seamer that averages a foot-and-a-half of armside run, an 80 mph slider and a changeup/splitter which have both generated a better-than-40% whiff rate over each of the last two seasons. Although older than the other two prospects and featuring less arm speed, Weston has a much higher ground ball rate reducing his susceptibility to giving up the long ball. His peak projection of a 1.28 WHIP and 4.10 ERA is similar to the current publicly-facing projection of Brady Singer of the Royals, which is an upper-percentile outcome.
Lucas Braun, RHP, Braves
Although Lucas Braun didn’t rank in the Top 50 at either High-A or Double-A—where he pitched a combined 143 innings, averaging over 5 innings per appearance—the 22-year-old righthander still showed some intriguing traits as a potential major league starting pitcher.
With a lower release point than average and big extension, Braun throws a very flat 93-mph four-seam fastball that he is able to pound into the zone for strikes. His 83-mph slider elicits over 40% whiffs and 40% chases. The average for sliders at Double-A are 34% and 28%, respectively, and therefore Braun’s offering is graded by RoboScout as above-average. Rounding out his arsenal and accounting for 26% of his pitches thrown, are Braun’s curveball and changeup, both of which also grade out as average pitches based on whiffs, chases and called-plus-swinging-strike rate. RoboScout projects him to have a major league peak to be reminiscent of Kyle Gibson. That’s not necessarily sexy, but has value in deeper dynasty leagues.
