9 Underrated MLB Hitting Prospects To Target According To RoboScout

Image credit: Pablo Guerrero (Photo by Bill Mitchell)

All season, RoboScout examined the top prospects at each level by taking minor league surface stats and underlying data and projecting their estimated peak major league-equivalent performance.

Unsurprisingly, the players showing the most impressive major league projections are often the prospects that scouts and front offices around the league hold in the highest regard. But defensive position, ability and makeup can often account for ranking discrepancies, and every year there are prospects whose fantasy projections do not align with the industry assessments.

Today, RoboScout identifies prospects it believes are being undervalued on prospect lists commensurate with their anticipated potential MLB output.

FANTASY PODCAST: Reviewing The 2024 Season & RoboScout’s Underrated Prospects

In many cases where two players have different surface stats with similar underlying data, a winning strategy is to understand that the surface stats will tend to converge, leading to potential buying opportunities for the less-performing prospect. Or, sometimes, selling opportunities for the better-performing prospect.

Let’s go around the diamond to find some underrated prospects per RoboScout at each position.

Daiverson Gutierrez, C, Mets

Gutierrez posted a disappointing sub-80 wRC+ across 211 Dominican Summer League plate appearances in 2023 despite signing for just short of $2 million. He repeated the DSL to begin 2024, but quickly earned a promotion to the complex level after just 14 games. Gutierrez produced a 164 wRC+ in addition to his already-excellent defense.

After another 15 games at the Complex and a lofty 170 wRC+ with two home runs as an 18-year-old, Gutierrez was promoted again to Low-A St. Lucie, where he played in only eight games with an unsightly negative 11 wRC+. His metrics under the hood are of particular interest to RoboScout.

Whereas in 2023, when he had a contact rate of only 72% and barrel rate of 5%, Gutierrez significantly improved both measures with a contact rate of 83% and barrel rate of 18% in 2024. Both metrics are plus for his age. Additionally, he improved his 90th percentile exit velocity from 99.4 mph in 2023 to 102.6 mph in 2024, which is higher than fellow 18-year-old slugger Arjun Nimmala (Blue Jays).

It’s a small sample size (134 plate appearances), but with his defensive ability already providing a high floor, Gutierrez is showing the potential to also bring a productive offensive element to his game.

Jonathon Long, 1B, Cubs

At the start of September, I wrote that the 22-year-old 2023 ninth-rounder had similar underlying Statcast data to fellow Cubs prospect Matt Shaw. Opening it up further to other 22-year-olds, both C.J. Kayfus (Guardians) and Jared Serna (Marlins) have very similar—and arguably inferior—Statcast data despite being generally regarded as more viable fantasy prospects.

Here’s how their plate appearances stack up:

Long: High-A (289), Double-A (200)
Shaw: Double-A (371), Triple-A (153)
Kayfus: High-A (183), Double-A (298)
Serna: High-A (393), Double-A/Triple-A (198)

Now, let’s check out the Statcast data:

Name	Age	Cont%	IZ-Cont%	90th EV	Chase%	Barrel%	xwOBAcon
Jonathon Long	22	75%	79%	105.5 mph	23%	14%	.396
Matt Shaw	22	75%	81%	105.1 mph	28%	15%	.360
C.J. Kayfus	22	73%	81%	102.2 mph	25%	18%	.379
Jared Serna	22	75%	80%	103.9 mph	27%	18%	.326

Of course, it’s not helpful if the underlying metrics don’t materialize into actual production. However, there is a clear opportunity for the two to converge, underscoring how Long is potentially underrated.

Sam Antonacci, 2B, White Sox

It was only 102 plate appearances at Low-A Kannapolis, but Antonacci showed uncanny bat-to-ball ability with a 90% contact rate and more walks than strikeouts. Antonacci didn’t hit any home runs, had a below-average 90th percentile exit velocity (100 mph) and only a 105 mph max exit velocity. But the fifth-round pick from Coastal Carolina did have a 17% barrel rate and a .352 xwOBAcon, illustrating that he generally hits his hardest balls in play at the optimal launch angles. If he can get to even fringe-average thump to supplement his preternatural bat-to-ball skills and solid swing decisions, we can squint to see a lite version of Kevin McGonigle (Tigers).

Max Acosta, SS, Rangers

Baseball America’s Josh Norris just listed Acosta as an intriguing Rule 5-eligible player heading to the Arizona Fall League. RoboScout agrees wholeheartedly. Acosta lowered his strikeout rate from 21% to 13% and increased his 90th percentile exit velocity by nearly two miles per hour from 2023. The Venezuelan middle infielder also cut his chase rate from 31% in 2023 to 24% while increasing his barrel rate from 13% to 20%. Acosta is also a defensive asset. He played two-thirds of his games at shortstop, showing above-average to plus run prevention. RoboScout projects his 2024 Double-A Frisco performance to be equivalent to an above-average major league bat with 15-18 home runs and 15-20 stolen bases and a batting average between .260 and .280. The fantasy prospect industry has yet to catch back up to Acosta’s reacquired shine.

Eric Bitonti, 3B, Brewers

Bitoni is Milwaukee’s No. 8 prospect, so he’s not exactly underrated. But RoboScout feels he should rank higher than where he is generally regarded. With a 90th percentile exit velocity of 105 mph and an xwOBAcon of .437, Bitonti’s raw and game power both grade as plus to double-plus. He needs to focus on his manageable 67% contact rate.

SEE THE REPORTS

Just for context, here are Bitonti’s Statcast metrics at the complex and Low-A compared to Lazaro Montes (Mariners), who is more than a year older than Bitonti (though at a higher minor league level):

Name	Age	Cont%	IZ-Cont%	90th EV	Chase%	Barrel%	xwOBAcon
Lazaro Montes	19	69%	74%	104.8 mph	26%	15%	.361
Eric Bitonti	18	67%	77%	104.8 mph	20%	24%	.437

Bonus Name: Luis Merejo, 3B Guardians

Merejo is another 18-year-old third baseman with Statcast data in the same cluster as Montes and Bitonti. To contextualize his data, let’s add his performance to the above table:

Name	Age	Cont%	IZ-Cont%	90th EV	Chase%	Barrel%	xwOBAcon
Lazaro Montes	19	69%	74%	104.8 mph	26%	15%	.361
Eric Bitonti	18	67%	77%	104.8 mph	20%	24%	.437
Luis Merejo	18	68%	75%	105.9 mph	22%	19%	.364

The Guardians’ hitting philosophy for prospects typically emphasizes contact over power. Merejo breaks the mold, demonstrating some of the best raw power of any teenager in the organization.

Pablo Guerrero, OF, Rangers

The younger brother of Vlad Guerrero Jr., Pablo Guerrero also shows some of the same hitting traits as the sluggers above while doing it at an even younger age. Although the 17-year-old has the worst chase rate of this cohort of sluggers, he was 1-2 years younger than the others. Again, for ease of comparison, here are the outfielder’s metrics accrued from 210 plate appearances at the complex and then 107 plate appearances for Low-A Down East compared to the same players:

Name	Age	Cont%	IZ-Cont%	90th EV	Chase%	Barrel%	xwOBAcon
Lazaro Montes	19	69%	74%	104.8 mph	26%	15%	.361
Eric Bitonti	18	67%	77%	104.8 mph	20%	24%	.437
Luis Merejo	18	68%	75%	105.9 mph	22%	19%	.364
Pablo Guerrero	17	67%	80%	105.7 mph	31%	17%	.392

Once Guerrero reached full-season ball at the end of July, his contact rate improved in Low-A, but his barrel rate and xwOBAcon were below-average for the level, as one might expect with a 64 wRC+. Still, with just over 100 plate appearances, RoboScout leans toward attributing this to growing pains while acclimating to a new level. It still projects the outfielder to be an above-average major league bat at peak, capable of annual seasons of approximately 25 home runs.

Alejandro Osuna, OF, Rangers

The third Ranger on this list, Osuna had a solid season for High-A Hickory and Double-A Frisco with a .292/.362/.507 slash line across the two levels. He hit 18 home runs, stole 17 bases and played above-average outfield defense, primarily in center field. In his age-21 season, the Mexican-born Osuna had a 75% contact rate and 104.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity, both above-average marks for the level while chasing at a fringe-average 29% mark. With a firmly-plus xwOBAcon of .391, RoboScout sees Osuna as an above-average major league bat at peak with 20-25 home run power and double-digit steals, all while playing solid outfield defense. Still unranked in our latest Rangers Top 30, RoboScout thinks Osuna is highly underrated in an ascendant minor league organization.

Kala’I Rosario, OF, Twins

Last year, RoboScout was very high on Rosario. The slugging outfielder had an elite 107 mph 90th percentile exit velocity at 20 years old while only chasing at a 20% mark. Rosario’s main blemishes were his below-average 66% contact rate, which was on the margins of playability, and his fringe-adequate corner outfield defense despite a plus arm. Prior to going on the IL for an elbow injury in June, Rosario showed significant improvements in both of these aspects of his game, with his contact rate improving to 72% over 299 plate appearances while also playing above-average outfield defense.

Additionally, the Hawaiian native improved his chase rate and swing decisions, while also increasing his 90th percentile exit velocity to an even more lofty 108.4 mph thanks to some of the fastest bat speeds in the minor leagues. Something to note, however, is that Rosario had trouble actualizing his fastest exit velocities at the optimal launch angles, as he had a 54% ground ball rate. His xwOBAcon ended up dropping from .431 in 2023 to a much less impressive 0.369 in 2024. The Twins will once again be sending Rosario to the AFL where RoboScout, assuming health, anticipates that his hitting improvements and power will be on full display. A year after winning the 2023 AFL home run derby, it may lead to this potential buying window to close.