Orioles Still On The Rise After Playoff Disappointment, But Have Questions To Answer

Image credit: Gunnar Henderson (Photo by Greg Fiume/Getty Images)

The Orioles are not done.

Gunnar Henderson is one of the best players in baseball. Even with his second-half struggles, Adley Rutschman is one of the best catchers in the game. Jordan Westburg is an All-Star. Colton Cowser could be the American League Rookie of the Year.

This team still has a young core of talent that is the envy of most of baseball.

But for the first time since the Orioles started this rebuild, it’s a tick behind schedule. This should have been the year where the Orioles won at least a playoff series (or two). Winning it all didn’t seem unrealistic.

Instead, the team ended up 10 wins and a playoff series behind the 2023 club.

Last year, the O’s won 101 games, topping the century mark in wins ahead of schedule. That regular season was such a step forward that even a three-game sweep at the hands of the (soon-to-be World Series champion) Rangers seemed a disappointing end for a team on the rise.

The 91-win 2024 regular season was a step back, but a modest one. The postseason, however, is another story. A quick two-loss exit in the wild card round where the Orioles scored just one run in 18 innings is a stunner.

The Orioles ranked fourth in MLB in runs scored during the regular season, hitting .250/.315/.435 overall. But the lineup seemed to run out of gas after the All-Star break. After averaging 1.56 home runs per game through July 31, The Orioles hit a more modest .238/.307/.395 from Aug. 1 onwards with 1.20 homers per game.

There may be tweaking around the edges, but this Orioles lineup seems relatively set. Jackson Holliday should be much better in year two than he was this season. Coby Mayo could find a spot next year, as well.

But the farm system has otherwise largely graduated (or traded) the mass of prospects who reached Triple-A Norfolk in 2023. Catcher Samuel Basallo, righthander Chayce McDermott and outfielder Vance Honeycutt ensure that the system isn’t barren, but for the first time in years, the Orioles do not have the best farm system in the AL East.

And there’s one other worry.

After drawing 41,506 fans in the wild card opener, the announced attendance was 38,698 for the Orioles’ last game of 2024. Significant swaths of the upper deck were empty.

That’s a concern because it follows a modest bump in Orioles attendance during the regular season. The O’s drew 2.281 million in announced attendance—an average of 28,162 per game—in 2024. Baltimore drew 1.936 million in 2023. The club is now back to where it was in 2015, but Baltimore drew 2.1-2.4 million per year from 2012-2016.

It wasn’t unrealistic to think that the Orioles would get a bigger bump in fans through the gates on the heels of one of the best regular seasons in team history, especially with a young core of appealing stars. Instead, this year’s attendance seems to indicate that the club’s attendance ceiling is much more modest than it was a generation ago. The Orioles drew from 3+ million fans every year from 1992-2001 (with the exception of the strike-shortened 1994 season). The O’s drew more than 3.6 million in 1996, 1997 and 1998.

With the arrival of the Nationals that siphoned off much of the D.C. market, those numbers seem unlikely to ever return, and that means that the Orioles are a more modest mid-market revenue team these days.

That’s noteworthy because the O’s have had a bottom five Opening Day payroll for the past six seasons. The Orioles did add Corbin Burnes in an offseason trade, but the 2023-2024 offseason saw the team tweak around the edges.

The core of this team is still young, extremely talented and likely to continue to improve. But with Burnes and Anthony Santander hitting free agency and much of the core about to reach arbitration, the payroll will need to keep climbing.

So far, Baltimore has not reached an extension with any of their young stars. While there are many players under team control for years to come, there’s not one player on the Orioles team whose current contract stretches into 2026.

Much of that can be explained by the parsimonious ways of the final years of the Angelos’ ownership, but the new David Rubenstein ownership group will have to show they are willing to step up to compete in one of the biggest-spending divisions in baseball.

And whether it’s retaining their free agents or bringing in outside talent, the Orioles also seem to be at the point where the pitching staff is going to need external help. Getting Kyle Bradish and John Means back at some point in 2025 should help, and trade acquisition Zach Eflin is under contract for 2025, but losing Burnes would leave a significant hole.

The Orioles aren’t done. They will once again be one of the favorites in the American League next year. But after two straight quick playoff exits, the next 12 months just became much more urgent.