6 American League Teams Receiving The Most Value From Rookies In 2024
Image credit: Wilyer Abreu (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
Many words have already been written about the players competing for MLB’s Rookie of the Year awards.
However, which teams received the most production from first-year players this season? Who were the notable and unheralded names who provided that value?
Today’s piece will focus on exactly that for a handful of American League rosters, while the next installment will cover the National League.
Let’s dive in!
Boston Red Sox
As evidenced in the chart below, no American League team accrued more fWAR from rookies in 2024 than the Red Sox:
This effort was led by Wilyer Abreu, who finished third among AL position players with 3.0 fWAR, trailing only Colton Cowser (4.0) and Austin Wells (3.4).
Acquired in the drama-inducing Christian Vazquez deal with the Astros back at the 2022 trade deadline, Abreu debuted late last season, at which point it became clear this would be a long-term win for Chaim Bloom’s legacy.
Abreu rode a .431 BABIP to hit .316/.388/.474 in his 28-game sample in 2023. Boston’s September collapse this year included struggles from Abreu, but he still posted a 114 wRC+ with strong defensive metrics.
Abreu combines a fly ball-heavy approach with an elite hard-hit rate to wind up with a 74th-percentile barrel rate. There’s some swing-and-miss to his approach, and like most young hitters, he could benefit from improved swing decisions. The ultimate upside is in question, but the 25-year-old performed like a well-rounded, valuable young player in 2024.
Then there’s the always-entertaining Ceddanne Rafaela, who just tied the record for the highest chase rate in Sports Info Solutions’ database, which dates back to 2002:
This led to a 2.6 BB%, which is the lowest in MLB (min. 500 PAs) since Dee Strange-Gordon in 2018.
Rafaela posted a .813 OPS in July but was otherwise a below-average hitter in the season’s remaining months. There are tools to dream on, but it’s obvious where Rafaela needs to improve in 2025.
Defensively, he’s a unique player who started 71 games at shortstop and 72 in center field as a rookie. However, his defensive metrics are far superior in the outfield, and with Trevor Story healthy heading into 2025, Rafaela will likely spend most of his time in CF next season.
Elsewhere for Boston, David Hamilton swiped 33 bases in just 98 games while filling in at shortstop and second base. He looks like a serviceable backup infielder with speed. Reliever Justin Slaten posted a 2.93 ERA in 55.1 innings to go along with a 22 K-BB%. Swingman Cooper Criswell’s 99.1 IP translated into 1.1 fWAR, thanks to a high grounder rate and minimal walks.
These youngsters will soon be joined by Baseball America’s No. 1 overall prospect, Roman Anthony, and BA’s Minor League Player of the Year, Kristian Campbell. The Red Sox have yet to finish over .500 in any of the past three years, but there’s a growing young core for fans to be excited about.
Detroit Tigers
Twenty-six-year-old lefty Brant Hurter debuted for the Tigers in August and operated in a multi-inning relief role, totaling 45.1 innings with six wins and a 2.58 ERA. Right-handed starter Keider Montero also filled 98.1 innings this season, but Detroit’s rookie production mostly came from position players.
Parker Meadows began the season in the big leagues but struck out 38% of the time with a 33 wRC+ through early May. He was optioned to Triple-A, recalled in July, got hurt, returned for good in August and thrived.
The 24-year-old is also an above-average base runner and strong center-field defender. The Tigers made the postseason, and Meadows looks like their regular leadoff hitter against right-handed pitching. His glove work keeps him in the lineup against lefties, as well.
Colt Keith’s rookie campaign was uneven. There were bright spots, however, including a 152 wRC+ in May and a dominant July in which he popped seven homers and hit .322/.404/.644. He was a lot better overall beginning in May, but the final results still left something to be desired. He turned 23 in mid-August and should be able to build on an entire season of big-league plate appearances.
Cleveland Guardians
Brayan Rocchio was worth 1.1 fWAR as the Guardians’ primary shortstop, and Jhoensky Noel popped 13 homers in 67 games. Then there’s Kyle Manzardo, who only accrued 156 plate appearances after struggling in his first cup of coffee. The sweet-swinging first baseman returned to Cleveland in September and hit .270/.333/.540 with five homers in 23 games.
Most of the Guardians’ rookie success came from two of their best relievers, Cade Smith and Hunter Gaddis. Led by Emmanuel Clase, this bullpen led the bigs in ERA, WHIP, FIP and fWAR in 2024.
Smith was highlighted back in early August as one of the most undervalued rookies of the season:
“His most-used offering is his four-seamer, which is thrown primarily at the top of the zone. Smith leans on it roughly two-thirds of the time, which (combined with its dominance) has led to the single highest run value among all pitches in baseball, per Savant.”
Smith also has a splitter that Stuff+ views as the second-best in MLB, only behind Fernando Cruz of the Reds. Add a sweeper with the same whiff rate as his fastball and split-finger, and Smith’s arsenal is ideal from a modern-day analytical perspective.
He ultimately finished fourth in K-BB%, third in SIERA, and first in fWAR. Gaddis’ 1.6 fWAR tied for 15th among all relievers.
New York Yankees
Luis Gil was dominant in May, registering a 0.70 ERA and a 0.67 WHIP across six starts while posting a 23 K-BB%. Walks were an issue, but Gil was so unhittable that batters weren’t reaching base.
After throwing 25.2 IP in 2022 and just four in September 2023 after Tommy John surgery, many expected Gil to eventually be shut down by the Yankees this year. However, he ended up making 29 starts and pitching 151.2 frames in the regular season. If the Yankees make a deep postseason run, it’ll be even more fascinating to look back at his jump in workload entering 2025.
As exciting as May was, Gil wasn’t quite as sharp in the second half:
- First half: 16.5 K-BB%, 3.62 FIP
- Second half: 11.5 K-BB%, 5.21 FIP
Still, the overall body of work was still enough to make him the most valuable rookie starter (by fWAR) in the American League.
Whereas Gil was at his best early, catcher Austin Wells heated up over the summer. Between July and August, he slashed .303/.389/.549 with nine homers and 29 RBI in 44 games.
Taken as the 28th overall pick in the 2020 draft, Wells’ development has gone quite well this year. Most impressively, he has made huge strides behind the plate. Wells tied for sixth in DRS and fourth in pitch framing among primary catchers this season.
Entering this season, Wells’ prospect write-up mentioned his desire to improve, which is notable with the benefit of hindsight.
Defensively, Wells draws raves for his work ethic and dedication to improvement. Scouts noticed better receiving skills and a quicker transfer on his throws, which helps counteract arm strength that is improved but still below-average and led to him throwing out just 13% of base stealers. Scouts also noticed Wells’ strong leadership skills and ability to command a pitching staff.
He is set to enter his age-25 campaign in 2025, and further consistency from Wells at the plate could turn him into a highly valuable player for the Yankees going forward. While Cowser remains the favorite for AL Rookie of the Year honors, both Wells and Gil have strong cases to be on the ballot.
Minnesota Twins
The Twins didn’t get any value from first-year hitters this year, but injuries to their rotation meant the organization needed to rely heavily on rookie arms to get by.
Neither Zebby Matthews nor David Festa finished with strong ERAs, but each recorded a top-9 K-BB% among all rookie pitchers:
The surface-level struggles for Matthews stemmed from a 2.6 HR/9 rate and a .364 BABIP. Meanwhile, Festa’s 66% left-on-base rate was the eighth-lowest among rookies. Each pitcher needs improvement, but there’s plenty of reason to think better days are coming in 2025.
Oakland Athletics
The Athletics tied the Pirates for the most fWAR accrued by rookie pitchers this season, and Pittsburgh has at least one notable arm you’re probably familiar with.
What’s unique about Oakland is nearly 60% of their pitching value this season came from rookies.
It starts (or ends with), fireballing Mason Miller. The 26-year-old worked out of the bullpen full-time this season, and he quickly became the club’s closer, securing his first save on April 9th and converting again in eight straight appearances.
Miller was at his absolute best in April and May, recording a 0.90 FIP with a 51.5 K% across his first 20 appearances of the year. For context, Aroldis Chapman in 2014 is the only qualified reliever to finish with a higher strikeout rate in a full season.
From then on, Miller was still excellent but lost some ride on his fastball as the season went on:
Most importantly, Miller remained healthy all year, and he’ll enter 2025 as a top five closer in the sport should the A’s keep him in the same role.
The remainder of Oakland’s rookie pitching class wasn’t particularly special, but they stacked together a lot of positive-value performances to accrue value, at least from a fWAR perspective:
The team needs further pitching development as it transitions to Sacramento next season. Offensively, the A’s posted their highest wRC+ in three years while recording their second-highest barrel rate in the Statcast era. Veterans Brent Rooker and Lawrence Butler were revelations. Attracting free agent arms to a minor league home park will be tough, so the A’s must keep improving from within, especially on the mound.
