2025 MLB Draft Lottery Odds

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With the completion of the 2024 MLB season, we now know the teams who will be eligible for the lottery this December that will determine the order of the 2025 MLB draft.

The 2025 draft class is shaping up to be stronger than the 2024 class. There is deep and solid group of high school prospects, but no clear-cut and obvious pick for No. 1 overall quite yet. You can read through our recently updated 2025 draft board here.

Last year, the Guardians won the draft lottery despite entering with just a 2% chance at the No. 1 pick. Here’s how it happened.

Per the 2022 CBA, the first six picks of the draft are determined by a lottery that includes each of the 18 teams that don’t make the playoffs. Below, you can find the complete odds for the 2025 MLB draft lottery: 

Pick	Team	Record	Win%	Odds	Original Odds
1	Rockies	61-101	0.377	22.45%	16.50%
2	Marlins	62-100	0.383	22.45%	16.50%
3	Angels	63-99	0.389	17.96%	13.20%
4	Nationals	71-91	0.438	10.20%	7.50%
5	Blue Jays	74-88	0.457	7.48%	5.50%
6	Pirates	76-86	0.469	5.31%	3.90%
7	Reds	77-85	0.475	3.67%	2.70%
8	Rangers	78-84	0.481	2.45%	1.80%
9	Giants	80-82	0.494	1.90%	1.40%
10	White Sox	41-121	0.253	—	16.50%
11	A’s	69-93	0.426	—	10.00%
12	Rays	80-82	0.494	1.50%	1.10%
13	Red Sox	81-81	0.5	1.22%	0.90%
14	Twins	82-80	0.506	1.09%	0.80%
15	Cardinals	83-79	0.512	0.82%	0.60%
16	Cubs	83-79	0.512	0.68%	0.50%
17	Mariners	85-77	0.525	0.54%	0.40%
18	D-backs	89-73	0.549	0.27%	0.20%

Why Aren’t The White Sox & A’s Included In The Draft Lottery?

Both the White Sox and A’s are ineligible to receive a lottery pick and can select no sooner than 10th and 11th, respectively. The White Sox received a lottery pick in the 2024 draft and pay into revenue sharing, meaning they can’t have lottery picks in back-to-back drafts, while the A’s received lottery picks in the 2023 and 2024 drafts and receive revenue sharing, meaning they can’t have lottery picks in three consecutive drafts.

The same penalty occurred for the Nationals in the 2024 draft. After receiving the second overall pick in the 2023 draft, the Nationals could pick no earlier than 10th in the subsequent 2024 draft.

For the White Sox in particular, the rule is a blow, as the team just completed one of the worst seasons in modern baseball history. Under the previous system, they could at least look forward to having their pick of the next crop of draftees. No longer. Now the team won’t even get a share of the top three odds for the No. 1 overall pick and will have to watch nine teams pick before they do.

Any club ineligible to receive a lottery selection has its odds reduced to zero. Remaining lottery eligible teams thenhave their odds increased in proportion to their original odds so that the cumulative odds for all eligible clubs totals 100%.

How Is The Draft Order For Playoff Teams Determined?

Non lottery-eligible teams (the eight postseason teams) have their draft order determined by a combination of postseason finish, regular season standings and revenue sharing status as follows:

• Clubs that lose in the Wild Card Series will select before clubs that lose in the Division Series, and clubs that lose in the Division Series will select before clubs that lose in the League Championship Series, and so on. Each year the team that wins the World Series will receive the last pick of the first round, as well as all subsequent rounds.

• Within each group of postseason rounds, draft order will be determined first by revenue sharing status (payee clubs will pick before non-payee clubs) and then in reverse order of regular season winning percentage.