Jacob Misiorowski, Jackson Jobe Headline 10 Statcast Standouts To End MiLB Season

10 Statcast Standouts

Jacob Misiorowski, RHP, Brewers

The dotted line on the chart signifies how much ride a typical pitcher with Misiorowski’s release will get on their fastball. Misiorowski gets about 1.5 inches more ride than expected, which combined with his elite velocity and extension, makes his fastball an easy plus-plus pitch. The quality of the pitch has also been remarkably consistent, maintaining a value at least one run per 100 pitches better than the average fastball in every 50-pitch rolling sample. I created a system called SMOKE that estimates pitch quality in a transparent fashion, allowing us to easily break things down by components:

The Brewers have shifted Misiorowski away from the gyro slider/cutter in favor of a dynamite hard curveball at 86. It has great depth at that velocity and is a menacing pitch, ticking both the performance and the stuff grade boxes. Out of the bullpen, those two pitches will be more than enough to carry him, but the slider will be important for him to develop if he hopes to be a starter.

Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers

This is what four plus pitches look like:

A fastball with plus ride (1-2 inches above expected given his release traits), and excellent velocity at 96.5, topping out at 98.5 mph. The pitch is an easy plus pitch from a stuff perspective, and other data suggest that it could be much better than that.

What makes the arsenal pop is the distinct pitch shapes he generates. His changeup is a weapon against lefthanded batters with tremendous fade and good depth, but perhaps a little too much velocity separation from the fastball. The sweeper will be a weapon against righties, with tremendous sweep. His spin rates at Triple-A aren’t quite where he was last year, when he was averaging 3000 rpms on the slider, so it looks like there’s even more room in the tank for this pitch. He threw the sweeper for a strike 74% of the time, showing he has great command of the pitch. The gyro slider/cutter is another excellent pitch, a platoon-neutral weapon at 90 mph.

Usually when I write up young pitchers, I always have a wish list for them to add/tweak to their arsenal. I don’t have any such comments for Jobe. He’s already got the stuff and command to get major league hitters out. If he gets back to his 2023 spin rates, he could be the rare pitcher with multiple double-plus pitches, with command. Given what we saw in that one glorious spring training inning, I think that’s what he’ll look like when the adrenaline is pumping. Please stay healthy!

Robby Snelling, LHP, Marlins

Snelling before the trade to the Marlins in Double-A: 6.01 ERA, 20 K% / 10 BB%
Snelling after the trade to the Marlins in Double-A: 4.00 ERA, 27 K% / 7.2 BB%

Luckily for us, he snuck in a start at Triple-A, where he struck out seven over six innings, with just one walk and one earned run.

Despite the pitch classification above, Snelling throws only one fastball, which I have as slightly above-average given it’s great shape and mediocre velocity at 93. When did 93 become run-of-the-mill velocity? Not sure, but it definitely is in today’s game. He was very fastball-heavy in his start, throwing it 65 times out of his 94 pitches.

His second-best pitch is a sweeper which sits somewhere between a true sweeper and a gyro slider. I’d love to see them split this in two, get some more gloveside run (aka sweep) with higher spin efficiency and one that is closer to the 0/0 IVB/HB point. The changeup is solid, with good velo separation and decent fade and depth, but this arsenal is calling for a platoon-neutral gyro pitch. He has lots to work on before getting in front of MLB hitters, but it’s a promising arsenal. It looks like the Marlins have gotten him back on track.

Marco Raya, RHP, Twins

Raya’s best pitch is easily his hammer curve at 85 mph that basically just drops straight down. The fastball gets good velocity, but he needs to either go all-in on spin efficiency (get more ride) or all the way out and make it a true hard cutter. He used to throw a great sweeper, but only fires off a couple here and there, which might be intentional to keep him healthy. The cutter/slider at 91 could probably be more effective with a shape tweak, getting its IVB close to zero and its HB closer to 0. Gyro slider quality is heavily influenced by the fastball. It will be interesting to see how they tweak this pitch moving forward.

He has the outlines of a solid four-pitch mix, and the confidence to pitch backwards even as a starter (his four-seamer was his third-most featured pitch), so I think he’s got a good shot to start. He likely needs some time at Triple-A next season to hone his pitches. Raya is a few small tweaks away from being a very exciting arm.

Ronny Mauricio, 2B, Mets

I’m going to bend the rules a little bit and talk to you about a player that hasn’t played at all this season. He’s a precocious talent, but has been somewhat “out of sight, out of mind” as he recovers from a knee injury. I present to you, Ronny Mauricio, righthanded batter:

Mauricio is hyper-aggressive as a righty, basically swinging at everything. Some would argue it’s a fatal flaw and will hold him back from being successful. What I see is 70-grade raw power indicated by his 108 mph 90th percentile EV, combined with plus-plus bat-to-ball even when he chases. He’ll likely play well below his potential given the poor approach, but the tools here are among the best of any prospect.

Now let’s look at Mauricio, the lefthanded batter:

From the left side, he still show poor swing decisions, chasing more than average, with below-average in-zone aggression, but he still shows above-average contact rates, especially when he chases. What is eye-popping is the nearly 80-grade raw power from the right side, which will likely play lower as he doesn’t get much loft on the ball. There aren’t many prospects in baseball who have that kind of raw power. I think he settles into third base next season. I’m very excited to see what Mauricio will do next season.

Bubba Chandler, RHP, Pirates

I wrote about Chandler last month and was very excited about his early data told us. Let’s check back in on a recent start, and see if his stuff has held up.

Chandler’s arsenal is the classic high-vert fastball, with a gyro slider and a changeup. All three pitches are plus pitches from a stuff perspective, and is a deep enough arsenal that he can get through a lineup multiple times. Most of his fastball value comes from the velocity, but the shape is also above-average, and sometimes gets close to plus shape, as his vertical slot makes the ride play down. He fills the zone with the pitch and looks to have command of all three pitches.

The changeup has great shape and has performed admirably, with a whiff/swing rate north of 40%, as well a whiff/pitch rate north of 20%, both excellent marks. The slider is not far behind, grading out well stuff wise, and getting whiffs on swings at 32% rate. Chandler mixes in an occasional curveball that works well with the limited usage. This is an MLB-ready arm who looks like a potential No. 2 starter, with potential for more if the fastball shape ticks up a little.

Agustin Ramirez, C, Marlins

Ramirez does almost everything well. He avoids chase at an above-average clip, swings at pitches in the zone at an above-average clip, makes contact in and out of the zone at an above-average clip. His top-end exit velocities are roughly 60-grade, though he isn’t lifting the ball, probably the only wart in his Triple-A profile to date. He looks like a quality big league catcher to me, at least with the bat.

Zach Dezenzo, 1B/3B/SS/OF, Astros

Dezenzo hit .333 with a .998 OPS in 113 Triple-A plate appearances. The underlying data point to a batter who punishes fastballs, and struggles somewhat against non-fastballs. Most batters show similar discipline metrics across pitch types, but Dezenzo is most aggressive against fastballs, while also avoiding chase against them, but is close to average decision-wise against other pitch types.

He’s showing roughly 60-grade raw that might play as a 60 or better because of his ability to hunt the fastball, despite lower launch angles at present. He also has solid bat-to-ball, which makes him a very interesting offensive prospect. It’s hard to project how well his approach will translate against pitchers that are better at hiding their fastballs, but the rest of the profile is solid enough that I think he’ll hit regardless.

Brandon Sproat, RHP, Mets

When I see a movement chart like this, I scream “SINKER, PLEASE!!!!!” Sproat’s fastball is a below-average pitch due to its dead zone shape, despite it’s velocity. It’s the kind of fastball that often dominates at the lower levels, but gets absolutely crushed by major league hitters. Switching to, or adding a sinker could give him another option so he won’t have to throw the fastball as much.

The rest of his arsenal is brilliant, the changeup gets huge depth and fade with great velo at 89, the cutter should be a swing-and-miss pitch at 87, but he needs to cut some ride from the pitch. The curveball has huge movement, and could be a useful strike-stealing pitch. He’s also thrown a few pitches with sweeper shape that could be another plus pitch if he can get the desired movement more consistently.

There’s huge potential here, given the five-pitch mix and plus-plus velocity. The Mets have had a lot of success recently with Luis Severino, Sean Manaea and Tylor Megill. I’d bank on them finding the right tweaks for Sproat to help him achieve his lofty potential.

Brady House, 3B, Nationals

House hasn’t quite smoked the ball with the raw power that he was known for coming up. However, he’s matured into a hitter with MLB-average raw power, somewhat average swing decisions, and strong contact skills. If he can recapture the 60-grade raw, this becomes a much more interesting profile. If not, he’ll “just” be a solid regular in the big leagues.