Minor League Pitchers With Traits To Target In Fantasy For 2025

Image credit: Quinn Mathews (37) Springfield Cardinals vs Frisco RoughRiders in a AA Texas League minor league baseball game at Riders Field in Frisco, Texas on Saturday, August 17, 2024 (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)

Welcome to the companion piece to the Minor League Hitters With Traits to Target, pitcher’s edition.

With our access to underlying data, we have unprecedented ability to granularly dissect a pitcher’s arsenal and “Stuff” to complement our scouting reports and help identify which pitchers show the traits that portend future success.

In traditional Stuff+ models, a pitch is compared to the average pitch of that type. Our internal model does the same thing. Components such as velocity, vertical approach angle, horizontal sweep and even velocity difference from the pitcher’s primary fastball are all inputs for the model to, from a macro level, assess a pitch’s likelihood of achieving the pitch modeler’s desired output (compared to average)—whether it be run prevention, whiffs, or damage on contact, etc.

Instead of “training” a data set to convert pitch metrics into “expected” run value or whiffs, with our pitch-level metrics, we can determine whose pitches have actually gotten the most whiffs or chases or called strikes. Similar to Stuff models, we can compare these results to the average pitch of that type at the level and subsequently grade them. By then aggregating a pitcher’s entire pitch arsenal–weighted by how often they throw the pitch–we can get a good estimate of a pitcher’s 2024 arsenal.

For example, at Double-A, the average four-seam fastball is 92.4 mph with an Induced Vertical Break (IVB) of 15.2 inches and an average horizontal break of 8.8 inches. But in terms of results, the average four-seam fastball in Double-A generates 23% whiffs (the percentage of the time that contact fails to be made on a per swing basis), generates 24% chases (the percentage of time that a batter swings at a pitch when it is not in the strike zone), and a 42% CSW% (the percentage of time that the pitch results in a strike–either of the called or swinging variety). Similarly, the average slider in Low-A has a 38% whiff rate, a 28% chase rate and a 45% CSW%.

One of the idiosyncrasies of traditional Stuff models is that the ability of the pitcher to throw the pitch for strikes is not always considered or is considered independently. In other words, a pitcher might have “nasty stuff” but may not be able to throw it with the requisite command despite its characteristics. Obviously, a pitch that will be a strike whether the batter swings or not combines the best of both worlds. Including CSW% in the pitch arsenal assessment indirectly accounts for the pitcher’s ability to “get a strike”, accounting for both command of the pitch and nastiness. Additionally, Ball%–found to be one the best indicators of future walk rate–was also included in the subsequent analysis.

Using a real example, Kumar Rocker’s 71% whiff rate, 58% chase rate, 69% CSW%, and 31% Ball rate on his slider would grade as an “81” at Double-A using our model.

All in all, we’ve graded a pitcher’s full arsenal on the 20 to 80 scale, where 50 is exactly average, and 10 points represents each standard deviation higher or lower than average.

Below are pitchers whose 2024 arsenals elicited some of the highest aggregate whiffs, chases and called strikes, with the percentage that each pitch was thrown listed in descending order, the resulting pitch grade based on the model, and the pitcher’s overall Ball% on the season.

Upper Levels:

Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals

Four-seam (48%): 52
Slider (26%): 59
Changeup (19%): 60
Curveball (7%): 52
Ball%: 35%

The former Stanford Cardinal likely had the most digital ink spilled for him of any pitching prospect in 2024. He made well-documented pitch metric gains since college and had arguably the best breakout success of any hurler in the minor leagues. Interestingly, he’s even gained a further 1 mph across essentially all his pitches since the end of June, getting even stronger as the season progresses. Mathews has a four-pitch mix with two plus offerings. Expecting him to enjoy success in the Cardinals’ rotation full-time in 2025 and beyond.

Chase Dollander, RHP, Rockies

Four-seam (64%): 62
Cutter (12%): 59
Curveball (12%) 50
Slider (6%): 41
Changeup (4%): 43
Ball%: 36%

The Rockies righthander has a fastball-heavy approach, throwing it nearly two-thirds of the time, and why wouldn’t he? His four-seam fastball sits 96.4 mph with an ultra-flat -4.0 VAA and generates 37% whiffs, 30% chases, and a 46% CSW%. His second and third pitches are his 88 mph cutter and 77 mph curveball, both of which get over 40% whiffs themselves. If not for the fact he will be pitching half his games in Coors, he would likely be a top-five fantasy pitching prospect.

Sean Sullivan, LHP, Rockies

Four-seam (67%): 60
Changeup (21%): 60
Slider (11%): 43
Ball%: 29%

Sullivan is another Rockies pitching prospect with two plus pitches in his arsenal. He pairs them with impressive strike-throwing ability and an excellent 29% ball percentage. Sullivan’s 87 mph four-seam fastball renders as barely average on Stuff+ models because of its velocity. But with the extremely high extension and big arm-side tail, it has generated very impressive results in 2024 across two levels. The changeup also generates whiffs and chases at a plus rate. Together with the fastball, the two pitches account for nearly 90% of the pitches he throws. Right now, the slider is more of a ‘show-me’ addition, adding glove-side run to the repertoire. It will be interesting to see if a predominantly two-pitch mix—especially with the second pitch being a changeup—will succeed in Triple-A and Coors. The deceptiveness worked in 2024.

Logan Henderson, RHP, Brewers

Four-seam (49%): 61
Changeup (39%): 55
Slider (8%): 41
Cutter (3%): 39
Ball%: 33%

Henderson is another pitcher thriving on his fastball-changeup combination. The four-seam fastball only sits 92 mph but has an extremely flat -4.0 VAA on account of his low release height and high IVB. The miss rate and chase rate both grade as plus for the level. His changeup comes in over 11 mph slower than the heater and itself has a CSW% of 44%. Marco Estrada made this type of arsenal work in the major leagues and Henderson hopes to do the same.

K.C. Hunt, RHP, Brewers

Four-seam (33%): 50
Slider (31%): 63
Cutter (17%): 57
Curveball (14%): 53
Changeup (5%): 56
Ball%: 35%

Another Brewers arm, Hunt has a much more diverse arsenal than Henderson. Each of Hunt’s five pitches grade as average or better. His 85 mph bullet slider grades out the best, on account of its 48% whiff rate, 40% chase rate, 31% ball rate and 58% CSW%. The Brewers pitching development machine continues to churn out arms. Hunt is next, unexpectedly going from 12th-round pick in 2022 to a potential midrotation starter.

Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers

Four-seam (43%): 54
Slider (20%): 49
Changeup (18%): 54
Cutter (18%): 51
Ball%: 35%

Jobe is the top-ranked pitcher on Baseball America’s Top 100 Prospects. He has a solid four-pitch arsenal, though his command has regressed slightly from 2023. Surprisingly, the model only gives him two pitches that barely kiss “above-average.” After his dominant 2023, we attribute this to his early-season hamstring issue and not a case of a true step backward.

Kohl Drake, LHP, Rangers

Four-seam (53%): 60
Curveball (15%): 55
Changeup (14%): 55
Cutter (9%): 49
Slider (8%): 42
Ball%: 35%

Now 24 years old, Drake started from the bottom but now is here in Double-A, pitching in three levels this season. His 92 mph four-seamer is his primary offering and it has over a foot of tail. Despite average velocity, Drake’s heater generates 32% whiffs from its deception. He also has an above-average changeup and three distinct breaking balls. With the arsenal, he should be able to make it as a back-of-the-rotation starter.

Moises Chace, RHP, Phillies

Four-seam (53%): 65
Slider (27%): 49
Changeup (17%): 57
Ball%: 39%

Philadelphia acquired Chace from the Orioles in the Gregory Santos deal. He has the highest-graded fastball among pitchers on this list, eliciting 42% whiffs and a 51% CSW%. Chace throws it from a low release height and high extension, causing its flat 94 mph to play up. His slider has over a foot of sweep but surprisingly only has elicited average results despite the high Stuff+ grades. His changeup has over 10 mph velocity separation from the fastball and has an impressive 50% CSW%. The biggest concern is his command with a 39% ball rate on the season. The 21-year old has lowered that mark to 37% since his promotion to Double-A.

Lower Levels

Alejandro Rosario, RHP, Rangers

Four-seam (54%): 54
Slider (27%): 65
Changeup (19%): 60
Ball%: 32%

Rosario is perhaps the year’s second-biggest breakout pitcher behind Quinn Mathews. His dominant arsenal has two plus pitches and a 97 mph fastball that is firmly above-average. Rosario’s ability to command his entire arsenal is almost as impressive as its overall quality. The 22-year-old righthander’s changeup has the highest Ball% at 35%, but of those pitches out of the zone, 40% of the time, batters will chase while haplessly whiffing at it at a 50% overall rate.

Travis Sykora, RHP, Nationals

Four-seam (43%): 60
Slider (41%): 60
Changeup (15%): 59
Ball%: 34%

Skyora was a revelation in 2024 and is the only pitcher on the list with three pitches that graded as plus. His 95 mph four-seam fastball generates 34% whiffs and a 30% chase rate, while his slider and his changeup both get over 50% whiffs. Sykora was perhaps the most dominant pitcher in the minor leagues since the Futures Game.

Ty Johnson, RHP, Rays

Four-seam (56%): 64
Slider (30%): 56
Two-seam (8%): 52
Changeup (6%): 47
Ball%: 34%

Johnson has lowered his release point by about 4 inches since the Rays acquired him at the deadline from the Cubs. Even considering his entire season’s body of work, the righthander has three pitches that grade average or better. The model grades his four-seam fastball as a 65 giving its 39% whiff rate, which is made all the more impressive when you realize it’s now eliciting 42% whiffs after changing organizations. With the clear delineation in performance before and after the trade, Johnson has a fascinating narrative carrying into 2025.

Jarlin Susana, RHP, Nationals

Slider (44%): 61
Four-seam (33%): 52
Two-seam (18%): 52
Changeup (5%): 52
Ball%: 36%

Susana’s 89 mph slider grades out as plus with its 50% whiff rate and 35% chase rate, and all four of his pitches grade as average or better. Susana has the second-highest Ball% of any starting pitcher on this list. If he can continue to improve his command, his slider-fastball(s) approach may work in a rotation, hearkening to Dinelson Lamet.

Santiago Suarez, RHP, Rays

Four-seam (54%): 55
Cutter (18%): 51
Curveball (12%): 52
Slider (8%): 50
Splitter (5%): 45
Ball%: 31%

Suarez’s grades aren’t as flashy as other arsenals in this story—”only” four pitches grade average or better—the model projects the Tampa Bay righty to have one of the better future strikeout-minus-walk rates of any pitcher in the lower levels because of his pristine command. No pitch in his arsenal gets whiffs at an above-average rate, but with his plus extension and low 31% ball rate, his arsenal is solid enough to grade well.

Owen Wild, RHP Rays

Four-seam (63%): 57
Slider (23%): 58
Changeup (13%): 49
Ball%: 32%

Another Rays righty makes the list. The 2023 seventh-rounded carved up High-A batters with a 92 mph four-seam fastball with plus extension and a very flat -4.3 VAA, an 84 mph slider that gets 42% whiffs and 40% chases, and an “average” changeup that has a foot of arm-side fade. Paired with his excellent ability to land the arsenal for strikes, the Gonzaga product is showing a pitch mix that should be able to handle the back of a major league rotation.

Hayden Robinson, RHP, Brewers

Four-seam (42%): 59
Slider (37%): 59
Changeup (21%): 57
Ball%: 34%

Robinson, a 2023 14th-round draft pick, showed an intriguing three-pitch mix in short-season ball. Both his 89 mph four-seam fastball—coming from 7 feet of extension—and his 80 mph slider grade out as plus. His changeup is above-average according to the model. A lot his success can be attributed to the haplessness of Complex League batters. His Stuff+ for his arsenal only grades out as a 98 from our internal Stuff+ model—as one might expect from a sub-90 mph fastball. However, of the 931 pitchers in the short-season leagues who threw more than 100 four-seam fastballs, Robinson’s whiff rate was in the 95th percentile. A pitcher to watch, especially considering his organization.

Prior To Being Injured

Luis Perales, RHP, Red Sox

Four-seam (31%): 56
Cutter (28%): 58
Splitter (26%): 61
Slider (9%): 49
Ball%: 34%

Prior to his season-ending injury, Perales was on track to be one of the biggest breakouts of 2024. You can see why from his four-pitch arsenal. Perales had two secondaries grade as plus and his four-seam fastball, his third-most effective pitch, graded as above-average. That 97 mph fastball elicited over 30% whiffs and 30% chases while his 90 mph cutter and 85 mph splitter both generated whiffs at a rate one standard deviation higher than the other cutters and split fingers in Double-A. Perales reached No. 57 in Baseball America’s Top 100, but underwent Tommy John surgery in June and is expected to miss all of 2025.

Grant Taylor, RHP, White Sox

Four-seam (41%): 55
Slider (22%): 61
Curveball (17%): 50
Cutter (17%): 47
Ball%: 31%

Taylor is another pitcher who briefly flashed excellence. His arsenal doesn’t have the same ‘wow’ factor as Perales, but Chicago’s second-round pick in 2023 showed better command of his pitch mix than the Red Sox fireballer. After being felled by a midseason oblique injury, the White Sox have not rushed the righthander back. Expect Taylor to be a popular 2025 sleeper.

Reliever

Edgardo Henriquez, RHP, Dodgers

Four-seam (62%): 59
Slider (20%): 69
Cutter (18%): 63
Ball%: 39%

Most of the list features starting pitchers by design. But we’d be remiss to not note the relief pitcher with the most hellacious pitch mix as defined by the model. As you might expect, that honor goes to Edgardo Henriquez on account of his four-seam fastball that averages 100 mph, an 89 mph slider that gets a Kumar Rocker-esque 68% whiffs, and a bridge cutter at 93 mph that itself gets 55% whiffs. As one might also expect, there is a bit of effective wildness, with no pitch landing in the zone at a better than 62% rate. That being said, with the ability for all three pitches to miss bats at a prolific 95th percentile rate or better, Henriquez is tailor made for high-leverage situations, potentially even this year.

Sleepers Outside Top 30s

Jake Miller, LHP, Tigers

Four-seam (55%): 54
Slider (28%): 54
Changeup (17%): 60
Ball%: 31%

For those of you in deeper dynasty leagues, Miller is an extremely interesting name. His three-pitch mix consists of a 93 mph fastball that has a 53% CSW%, an 81 mph slider that also steals strikes at a plus rate, and an 85 mph changeup that gets over 50% whiffs. The lefthander also pounds the strike zone. An athletic 2022 eighth-round pick out of Valparaiso, Miller is an intriguing and underrated pitchability arm.

Nestor German, RHP, Orioles

Four-seam (47%): 53
Curveball (15%): 61
Changeup (14%): 56
Slider (13%): 53
Cutter (11%): 59
Ball%: 34%

All of German’s pitches elicit whiffs at an 85th percentile rate or better. That is all the more impressive when you realize he pounds the zone with each. The 11th-round pick of 2023 has grown stronger as the season has gone on, adding 1 mph to his fastball since June—averaging 94 mph now since July 1—and adding an astonishing 3 mph to his slider, now sitting 86 mph. German has a five-pitch mix with each offering grading above-average or better and doesn’t appear on Baltimore’s Top 30. He’s the poster child for underrated and another sleeper for 2025.

Ben Shields, LHP, Yankees

Four-seam (40%): 51
Slider (35%): 53
Curveball (18%): 60
Two-seam (5%): 49
Ball%: 35%

Similar to German, Shields does not light up the RoboScout rankings because they are a bit older for their respective levels. But as the adage says, no one checks IDs on the pitcher’s mound—and when you have four pitches that are average or better with better-than-average control, it may not matter. Shields has big extension from the left side, allowing his 92 mph fastballs to play up. Both his slider and curveball average 81 mph but with two distinct shapes, and each get nearly a foot of sweep and strikes at an above-average clip. The 25-year-old southpaw shows an arsenal to profile as a back-of-the-rotation starting pitcher