Kristian Campbell, Edgardo Henriquez Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (Sep. 9)

10 Statcast Standouts

Kristian Campbell, 2B, Red Sox

Campbell has been rocketing up our rankings, jumping from 98th to 25th in our most recent Top 100 update, but even that rise understates just how much he’s improved in such a short period of time. Campbell ranked as our 255th prospect heading into the 2023 draft, where we highlighted his elite contact rates. Boston was more bullish on him and took him 132nd overall, and he’s been on a rocket ship ever since then.

Beginning the year in High-A, Campbell slashed .306/.418/.558 with eight home runs and was quickly promoted to Double-A where he performed even better, slashing .362/.462/.582 and improving his BB/K rate from 26/47 to 35/38. Through Saturday’s games with Triple-A Worcester, Campbell is maintaining an OBP north of .400 , a benchmark he’s eclipsed at every level he’s competed at professionally.

It’s always nice when the surface level numbers are as pristine and beautiful as Augusta National Golf Club, but it’s even better when the underlying Statcast data are as rock solid as the Gotthard Base Tunnel.

Let’s begin by looking at Campbell’s performance against righthanders, against whom he doesn’t have the platoon advantage:

We see plus-plus contact skills, including an in-zone contact rate north of 90%, and an overall contact rate above 80%, creating a foundation that should translate exceptionally well to the major leagues. Campbell’s four-degree launch angle average is lower than it was in High-A or Double-A, so I expect that to regress back to a roughly major league average 12 degrees or so, which should make him as good a bet as any prospect to hit near .300 with 20 homers. His 108 mph 90th percentile EV against RHPs is plus-plus raw power, which is exceptional given the contact skills, and his maximum exit velocity of 111.2 is already above the major league median.

If we look at Campbell’s performance against lefthanders, we only have 12 balls in play, so the data are extremely noisy, and I think somewhat misleading to present. He’s sporting a 96.2% in-zone contact rate against lefties, about average in-zone aggression and a pristine chase rate. It’s safe to say he’s making phenomenal swing decisions against LHPs, and the batted ball numbers should regress back to what we’d expect once we accumulate more data. It’s very close, but in this writer’s opinion, Kristian Campbell is the best prospect in the Boston Red Sox system.

Edgardo Henriquez, RHP, Dodgers

One of the things we’re very passionate about here at Baseball America is surfacing players that are rocketing their way to the big leagues, and our two headliners today are prime examples of this archetype. J.J. Cooper compared Henriquez’s rise to that of Orion Kerkering, while Geoff Pontes wrote about his unlikely rise to stardom. Last month, I took a look at his early Triple-A data, and came away impressed, but not blown away. That is no longer true; I’m absolutely blown away by Henriquez’s raw stuff. He has the potential to be an absolute monster closing out games for the Dodgers.

My followers on Twitter/X aren’t overly familiar with Henriquez:

Do you know who Edgardo Henriquez is?

— Eli Ben-Porat (@EliBenPorat) September 8, 2024

Velocity isn’t the only thing, but when you can throw as hard as Henriquez, we can make the very complicated art of breaking down a pitcher’s arsenal into a very simple heuristic: Just throw it 101.

Let’s highlight some velocity stats:

• On August 14th, he threw 11 pitches over 100 mph, including six over 101 mph
• He’s thrown a ball over 101 in four different games, including a max of 101.6
• He averages 99.7 MPH with the fastball

Henriquez gets slightly below-average ride on his fastball, but I think that will be slightly above-average when he gets out of the PCL. I need to formalize my PCL ballpark adjustments, but it’s safe to say you can add at least an inch of ride to most PCL pitchers’ fastballs, and likely more depending on the ballpark in which they throw.

The Dodgers aren’t relying on velocity alone as they develop Henriquez. Let’s look at how his pitch mix has progressed in his Triple-A career to date:

In early August, we see a classic fastball/gyro slider arsenal with the signature 100 mph velocity combined with a gyro bullet slider around 90 mph.

In his next game, we see him break out a bridge cutter, a pitch designed to sit roughly in the middle of the fastball and gyro slider in terms of movement and pitch velocity.

Through two September games, we see the complete arsenal: a plus-plus 100 mph fastball, a 95 mph bridge cutter and a 90 mph gyro slider (labeled a cutter here). I’m 100% confident in the gyro slider vs. cutter distinction, but the velocity differentiation would suggest strongly to me that they are distinct pitches for him. Both pitches will grade out well in stuff models, and he looks to be future closer with at least two plus-plus pitches.

Michael McGreevy, RHP, Cardinals

McGreevy is a pitcher for whom the sum of the parts is greater than the individual pitches. His fastball has below-average ride and velocity, rating as a 40-grade pitch or worse from a stuff perspective. But it’s produced a near 25% whiff rate on swings and an almost 14% whiff rate per pitch, which is very good for a fastball.

His sinker is a true sinker, getting plenty of vertical movement deviation (i.e. more sink on the pitch than expected given the spin axis), and when paired with the fastball, has produced negative launch angles, a benchmark he’s managed on almost 2000 sinkers thrown at the Triple-A level. He throws it from the exact same spin axis and arm slot as the fastball, but the shape is much different, which is likely the key to the success of both pitches.

McGreevy’s cutter is quite unusual in that it features arm-side movement. Given the velocity and shape, it’s probably contributing to the deception of the fastball and sinker. I haven’t seen a lot of these, so I’m not entirely sure what to make of it, but it’s another pitch he can command and throw for strikes.

His slider/sweeper is kind of in the middle with not enough glove-side run, but he gets a ton of movement deviation on the pitch, which I think is his calling card, as his changeup also gets good vertical movement deviation even though it hasn’t produced great results. I think the sinker is an excellent pitch that will give him a high floor as a ground-ball inducing machine. He looks to me like a back of the rotation workhorse.

Quinn Priester, RHP, Red Sox

Sometimes the best way to improve a pitcher’s performance is to simply have them throw their better pitches more and their lesser pitches less. In the case of Priester, that means throwing a lot more sinkers and a lot fewer fastballs. In fact, in his most recent start where he went six shutout innings with eight strikeouts and no walks, Priester only used his four-seam fastball against lefties and did not throw it at all against righties. The sinker is a monster pitch against same-handed batters and will be a ground-ball machine for him. He was mostly just sinker/slider against righties in that start, with a few changeups sprinkled in.

Against lefthanders, he showed a five-pitch mix, splitting the hard stuff evenly between fastball and sinker, and throwing his excellent changeup a lot more. He gets great depth on the changeup and it should be a fantastic whiff pitch against lefthanded batters. He also mixes in an occasional curveball. I’m loving what I’m seeing from Priester, and I really like how the Red Sox have streamlined his arsenal to maximize his chances of success.

Dalton Rushing, OF, Dodgers

I somehow haven’t written about Rushing, but he looks like a very good bet to be a productive major leaguer. Let’s begin with how he looks when he has to face same-handed pitchers:

With the caveat that his performance came in the PCL where pitch movement is muted, Rushing is showing a rare blend of low chase rates, plus in zone aggression and tremendous contact rates both in and out of zone. He does this while posting plus raw exit velocities, all when he has the platoon disadvantage.

Against righthanders, he’s showing the same sublime plate discipline with very good contact skills and about average damage on contact and raw power. We can perhaps quibble over and question the fastball contact, but the bottom line is he’s a very good hitter who doesn’t have a hole against same-handed pitchers and should be a very productive bat who hits for average and power.

Emmanuel Rodriguez, OF, Twins

Adam Dunn with speed.

Through Saturday, Rodriguez has six walks in just four games to go with a chase rate of 11.8% and a zone swing rate that’s close to average at 63%. It’s a tiny sample, but given what he’s demonstrated throughout his career, there’s substantial data to suggest that he’ll continue along this path.

That’s the Adam Dunn 2.0 part. Here’s the speed:

Emmanuel Rodriguez with an inside-the-park GRAND SLAM for his first Triple-A HR⚡️#MNTwins pic.twitter.com/UBhAGY7z5A

— Twins Player Development (@TwinsPlayerDev) September 8, 2024

I’ve been comparing Em-Rod to Dunn for quite some time, and I find him fascinating. He’ll likely feature prominently in this series as we close out the minor league seasons.

Kemp Alderman, OF, Marlins

Alderman recently reached High-A, but I haven’t written about him before, so I’ll fix that here today. His 109.3 mph 90th percentile exit velocity is what makes him interesting, and it fits with his gigantic 6-foot-3, 265-pound frame. He pairs that with an ultra-aggressive approach and solid contact skills. It’s not a sure-fire profile, but the plus-plus or better raw power and solid contact rates makes him an intriguing profile.

Yerlin Confidan, OF, Reds

Confidan is a little old for Single-A, but he’s showing two very important traits: plus-plus raw power and above average swing decisions (both in terms of in-zone aggression and avoiding chase). He’s improved dramatically while repeating the level, but it remains to be seen if he can maintain that level as he moves up the ladder.

Arjun Nimmala, SS, Blue Jays

“Will he learn to lift the ball?” is a question this writer asks himself of many prospects, so it’s quite refreshing to encounter a prospect in Nimmala that already shows the ability to get the ball in the air against all pitch types. He isn’t chasing very much, and while the exit velos are below the current major league average, we can comfortably project some gains there as he matures. If you add three mph of exit velo to those launch angles, you get a monster power hitter. I’m much more comfortable projecting exit velocity gains than launch angle gains, which means I think Nimmala has a decent shot to be a 25-30 home run hitter at the major league level. The contact rates have improved but will likely remain a weakness for him as he builds his career.

Zach Maxwell, RHP, Reds

If I write about either Edgardo Henriquez or Zach Maxwell, the rule is I have to write about the other player. These two flamethrowers are perhaps the most exciting relief pitching prospects in the minors.

What I find most impressive about Maxwell is his game-to-game consistency. His fastball velocity is worth between 0.7 and 1 runs per 100 pitches, and his fastball shape varies between 0.5 and 1 runs per pitch, giving him a fastball that ranges from double plus to elite when he’s got both working. In Triple-A, Zach has topped out at an incredible 102.5, while hitting 101 mph 25 times. Command is still an issue, but this is one of the best pure stuff fastballs in baseball—period.