RoboScout Top MLB Prospects At Every Level On Sept. 1, 2024

Low-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Leodalis De Vries	SDP	100	100
2	Colt Emerson	SEA	86	93
3	Michael Arroyo	SEA	86	90
4	Eric Bitonti	MIL	83	89
5	Aidan Smith	TBR	84	88
6	Franklin Arias	BOS	84	88
7	Demetrio Crisantes	ARI	79	87
8	Zyhir Hope	LAD	79	87
9	Kevin McGonigle	DET	82	87
10	Robert Calaz	COL	84	85
11	Blake Mitchell	KCR	79	85
12	Jaison Chourio	CLE	80	84
13	Lazaro Montes	SEA	89	82
14	Jonny Farmelo	SEA	76	81
15	Walker Jenkins	MIN	76	81
16	Arjun Nimmala	TOR	83	81
17	Josue De Paula	LAD	73	80
18	Luis Merejo	CLE	76	80
19	Pablo Guerrero	TEX	79	80
20	Yeremi Cabrera	TEX	78	80
21	Eduardo Tait	PHI	85	78
22	Welbyn Francisca	CLE	78	77
23	Jeral Perez	LAD	74	77
24	Eduardo Quintero	LAD	72	77
25	Max Clark	DET	76	76

Rangers outfielder Pablo Guerrero appeared in the top 50 of RoboScout’s non-debuted Top 100 two weeks ago, but I haven’t discussed him in-depth this season. It’s not for lack of production. Instead, it’s likely an artifact of his weekly or seasonal performance being overshadowed by other names. What Vlad Jr.’s little brother has done this year, though, has been quite noteworthy.

Guerrero, who turned 18 a month ago, reached full-season ball as a 17-year-old after hitting seven home runs over 210 plate appearances at the complex and putting up a 119 wRC+. When Vlad Jr. was 17 years old in 2016, he hit eight home runs in 276 plate appearances with a similar 122 wRC+ in short-season ball. Although similar production on first blush, the Blue Jays’ current corner infield star only struck out 13% of the time in 2016 whereas his younger brother has struck out at a 30% pace.

Pablo’s hit tool lags behind, but the underlying thump is impressive. He has the highest 90th percentile exit velocity of any hitter in their age-17 season, and he also has the highest xwOBAcon and barrel rate of any stateside 17-year old. Add it all together, and it looks a future MLB bat that is better than league average with the potential for 25 or more home runs. As is a common refrain, he will need to keep his strikeouts in check and watch his conditioning.

It’s an extremely small sample, but here are the highest-ranked 2024 draftees at Low-A with a minimum of 25 plate appearances:

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Cam Smith	CHC	67	76
2	Nick Kurtz	OAK	65	75
3	Ethan Anderson	BAL	61	70
4	Callan Moss	KCR	62	70
5	Brendan Jones	NYY	58	68
6	Ian Petrutz	STL	59	67
7	Jared Thomas	COL	60	67
8	Sam Antonacci	CHW	57	66
9	Robert Hipwell	SFG	55	66
10	Aaron Parker	TOR	60	65

Cubs first-rounder Cam Smith was the second-highest 2024 draftee in Low-A last week. As you would expect after six consecutive games with a home run, he is now the top-ranked draft pick. He hit six homers in 57 plate appearances before earning a promotion to High-A, hinting at 30-homer potential in the big leagues. That’s supported by his 106 mph 90th percentile exit velocity (on 30 balls in play).

Coming out of the draft, we converted his 2024 contact rate at Florida State to be be equivalent to a 72% in the minor leagues and he currently sports a 76% contact rate and an 18% chase rate. Of course, this is an unsustainable heater, but it’s an excellent start to his professional career which will no doubt make him a popular late first-round target in upcoming FYPDs.

Low-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Matt Wilkinson	CLE	100	100
2	Travis Sykora	WSN	95	96
3	Jonah Tong	NYM	91	92
4	Quinn Mathews	STL	86	89
5	Alejandro Rosario	TEX	85	87
6	Didier Fuentes	ATL	83	86
7	Jarlin Susana	WSN	81	85
8	George Klassen	LAA	81	84
9	Yujanyer Herrera	MIL	84	84
10	Santiago Suarez	TBR	79	83
11	Grant Taylor	CHW	77	83
12	Trevor Harrison	TBR	80	82
13	Kohl Drake	TEX	82	82
14	Anderson Brito	HOU	74	79
15	Sean Linan	LAD	80	79
16	Gary Gill Hill	TBR	78	78
17	Jojo Ingrassia	BOS	79	78
18	Jace Kaminska	COL	76	77
19	Alex Clemmey	WSN	77	76
20	Mavis Graves	PHI	78	76
21	Christian Zazueta	LAD	75	76
22	Josh Knoth	MIL	75	76
23	Gabriel Reyes	DET	78	76
24	Michael Kennedy	PIT	78	76
25	Elmer Rodriguez-Cruz	BOS	75	75

RoboScout likes 19-year-old Dodgers righty Christian Zazueta. On the season for Low-A Rancho Cucamonga, Zazueta has a 27% strikeout rate with a 1.50 WHIP and 6.85 ERA over 47.1 innings, which isn’t particularly compelling. However, over his last six starts, he has a 33% strikeout rate with a 1.03 WHIP and 2.55 ERA. He throws a 92 mph four-seamer from a lowish slot that comes in flat with a -4.4 VAA. His 80 mph slider and 83 mph changeup both get over 30% whiffs. He has been spotting a curveball, too, that has more downer action than his slider. He doesn’t project as much more than an emergency starter right now, but his youth and the Dodgers’ pitching development machine suggests you should keep an eye on him.

Braves 6-foot-8 righty Garrett Baumann was a fourth-round pick out of high school in 2023. He just turned 20 two weeks ago. Baumann on the season has a pedestrian 22% strikeout rate while pitching to contact with a 12% swinging strike rate. Over his last four starts, however, Baumann has the third-highest swinging strike rate in Low-A among pitchers 21 years old or younger, trailing only Travis Sykora (Nationals) and Juan Valera (Red Sox). This has naturally translated into increased strikeouts (a 34.5% rate during that span) and a 1.81 xFIP.

From a stuff perspective, as one would expect from his build, the tall righthander has a fairly high release point and extremely high extension. As a result, his 93 mph fastball doesn’t have flat pitch design, but has touched 98 mph. He also throws an 84 mph slider and solid 86 mph changeup with over a foot of fade. With the intimidating build and good athleticism, the prep pitching prospect has been consistently showing back-of-the-rotation potential over the last month. We’ll keep an eye on him as he finishes out the season in High-A Rome.

High-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Michael Arroyo	SEA	100	100
2	Luke Adams	MIL	93	95
3	Luke Keaschall	MIN	92	95
4	Colt Emerson	SEA	91	94
5	Cam Collier	CIN	94	93
6	Bryce Eldridge	SFG	90	92
7	Sebastian Walcott	TEX	99	92
8	Lazaro Montes	SEA	99	92
9	Kevin McGonigle	DET	87	90
10	Sal Stewart	CIN	85	89
11	Walker Jenkins	MIN	86	89
12	Josue De Paula	LAD	83	88
13	Thayron Liranzo	DET	84	87
14	Xavier Isaac	TBR	90	87
15	Carter Jensen	KCR	86	86
16	Jhostynxon Garcia	BOS	80	84
17	Alex Freeland	LAD	77	83
18	Max Clark	DET	81	82
19	William Bergolla	CHW	82	81
20	Jesus Baez	NYM	80	81
21	Cooper Ingle	CLE	74	80
22	Brayden Taylor	TBR	80	80
23	Ralphy Velazquez	CLE	79	80
24	Tre’ Morgan	TBR	76	79
25	Mike Boeve	MIL	71	79

With 10 home runs in his last 118 plate appearances, Bryce Eldridge (Giants) is the hottest hitter in the minor leagues and now ranks No. 6 on the High-A list. His quality of contact is some of the best in the minor leagues, witch essentially plus-plus barrel rates against all pitch types, which more than overcomes the below-average contact rate and average chase rate. On the season, he has a 16% walk rate and 25% strikeout rate, which projects him to be a .250 to. 260 bat with 25 to 30 home runs. RoboScout thinks he’s one of the top first base fantasy prospects in the minors and a top 25 fantasy prospect.

A pair of High-A Everett prospects, Michael Arroyo and Lazaro Montes, have also caught fire—er…more accurately, have maintained their fire, with 15 home runs between them since July 29. Of the two, RoboScout prefers Arroyo—after all, his Low-A performance was top five and his High-A performance is top of the pops—and views him as a player who will provide an above-average major league bat, solid keystone defense and 25-homer juice while not turning 20 years old until November. Arroyo is a top 20 fantasy prospect in 2024, per RoboScout.

What Eldridge and Arroyo have been doing at High-A is quite impressive. Since 2006, the following are the top wRC+ for hitters, 19 years old or younger, at High-A with a minimum of 150 plate appearances:

Eldridge and Arroyo are No. 3 and No. 10, respectively.

The only teenagers who have reached full-season ball this season who have a better in-zone contact rate than Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle are Starlyn Caba (Phillies) and William Bergolla (White Sox). We’ve discussed Caba and his elite shortstop defense before, but he has only produced a 62 wRC+ in 99 Low-A plate appearances.

Bergolla, on the other hand, was acquired from the Phillies for Tanner Banks at the trade deadline and has managed a 113 wRC+ in a High-A season spanning 357 plate appearances, with an even better 126 wRC+ across the last five weeks. Although his 98.1 mph 90th percentile exit velocity lags behind McGonigle’s 103.1 mph, keep in mind that McGonigle achieved those velocities mostly against Low-A pitching. Also note that Bergolla’s xwOBAcon, which pairs launch angle with exit velocity to assess a batted ball profile’s ability to create runs, is higher than McGonigle’s.

RoboScout projects Bergolla to be a competent major league bat with above-average batting average and on-base percentage with the ability to steal 20+ bases. Although there isn’t much present game power yet—he may only peak at around 10 home runs in his best major league seasons—Bergolla has recorded a batted ball at 110 mph, hinting at his potential. He’s a very underrated fantasy prospect.

It’s again an extremely small sample, but here are the highest-ranked 2024 draftees at Low-A with a minimum of 24 plate appearances:

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Cam Smith	CHC	68	77
2	Brendan Jones	NYY	63	72
3	Travis Bazzana	CLE	56	63
4	Dylan Dreiling	TEX	54	62
5	Kaelen Culpepper	MIN	54	61

The Yankees drafted Kansas State center fielder Brendan Jones in the 12th round this year, and he has has performed admirably in his pro debut. In 41 Low-A plate appearances, the 22-year-old hit a home run, stole five bases, and had a 209 wRC+, earning the promotion to High-A. At Hudson Valley, he’s continued where he left off with two more home runs and seven stolen bases (he still hasn’t been caught) in his first 33 plate appearances.

Under the hood, Jones has shown a selective approach with plus contact ability, and a league-average xwOBAcon. His hot start suggests a 15-homer, 25-steal bat in the major leagues. It’s still too early to see if his selective approach will play against advanced pitching, but right now the Yankees have to be pleased with their $150,000 signee from the last day of the draft.

High-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Alejandro Rosario	TEX	100	100
2	Matt Wilkinson	CLE	99	97
3	Quinn Mathews	STL	96	96
4	Noah Schultz	CHW	93	96
5	Jarlin Susana	WSN	94	96
6	Owen Murphy	ATL	93	94
7	Luis Perales	BOS	91	94
8	Chase Dollander	COL	90	92
9	Sean Sullivan	COL	95	92
10	K.C. Hunt	MIL	93	91
11	Kohl Drake	TEX	93	91
12	Jedixson Paez	BOS	93	89
13	Zebby Matthews	MIN	85	87
14	George Klassen	LAA	86	87
15	Jonah Tong	NYM	88	87
16	Alessandro Ercolani	PIT	83	86
17	Owen Wild	TBR	83	83
18	Thomas White	MIA	82	83
19	Moises Chace	PHI	79	82
20	Ryan Lobus	TEX	82	82
21	Jaden Hamm	DET	83	81
22	Ethan Pecko	HOU	82	81
23	Andry Lara	WSN	83	81
24	Yujanyer Herrera	COL	82	80
25	Ty Johnson	CHC	80	80

Last week I touched on Ty Johnson (Rays) as one of the hottest pitchers of the month since joining High-A Bowling Green for the Rays. Johnson added a six-inning, 11-strikeout and zero walk performance to his resume this past week. The early returns seem to suggest yet another Rays pitching development success, and he now finds himself in the top 25 for the level.

Rays righty Owen Wild is another Bowling Green pitcher who has been nearly as hot as Johnson over the past five weeks. Wild struck out nine batters and walked only one last week over six innings against High-A Hickory. Over four appearances since July 29, the 21-year-old righthander has the highest swinging strike rate at the level with a 23.4% mark.

Although his four-seam fastball only sits 91 mph, it does come in very flat and with high extension. His slider and changeup both get better than average whiffs. Despite the torrid streak and solid season overall, Wild appears to be a ‘sum of his parts’ pitcher who seems to be outperforming his back-of-the-rotation starter profile. RoboScout, though, from a purely dispassionate standpoint, projects his expected major league performance to be in the same bucket as more highly-regarded Jaden Hamm (Tigers) and Winston Santos (Rangers).

Yet another Bowling Green pitcher, Jackson Baumeister, might be the hottest of them all. The Rays acquired him from the Orioles in the Zach Eflin trade. In his six appearances since the trade spanning 24 innings, the righthander has a 0.63 WHIP and 1.13 ERA with 35 strikeouts and only four walks. He was already compelling thanks four pitches that get over 30% whiffs: a 93 mph four-seamer with big extension, a downer curveball, a changeup with over a foot of fade and a slider. The Rays seem to have unlocked something, or perhaps more accurately have helped enable Baumeister to unleash his arsenal more effectively.

Double-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Emmanuel Rodriguez	MIN	100	100
2	Roman Anthony	BOS	90	91
3	Agustin Ramirez	NYY	89	89
4	Luke Keaschall	MIN	85	89
5	Moises Ballesteros	CHC	88	87
6	Kristian Campbell	BOS	80	85
7	Matthew Lugo	LAA	80	84
8	Cole Young	SEA	85	84
9	Samuel Basallo	BAL	90	83
10	Deyvison De Los Santos	ARI	83	81
11	Alex Freeland	LAD	74	80
12	Ryan Clifford	NYM	80	80
13	Edgar Quero	CHW	77	79
14	Dalton Rushing	LAD	71	79
15	Carter Jensen	KCR	79	78
16	Jhostynxon Garcia	BOS	73	78
17	Jimmy Crooks	STL	72	77
18	Matt Shaw	CHC	76	77
19	Hao-Yu Lee	DET	78	77
20	Cooper Ingle	CLE	70	76
21	Xavier Isaac	TBR	80	76
22	Carson Williams	TBR	77	76
23	Colby Thomas	OAK	72	75
24	Jacob Wilson	OAK	68	75
25	Alejandro Osuna	TEX	69	75

In our latest fantasy podcast, Geoff and I discussed prospects who have yet to debut but are expected to provide 2025 value. Rays shortstop Carson Williams was an honorable mention for me. He finds himself in the Double-A top 25 after hitting a pair of home runs and nabbing a base last week. A blend of power and speed with excellent shortstop defense, he should provide solid fantasy value. The concern is how the Rays slow play their prospects. It’s quite possible that he doesn’t debut until September 2025 despite likely starting 2025 in Triple-A.

Astros infielder Brice Matthews hasn’t received much fanfare despite hitting 15 homers and stealing 26 bases over 276 plate appearances with a 164 composite wRC+. After knocking two home runs and stealing three bases last week, the Astros shortstop/third baseman is now just outside the top 30 of the Double-A RoboScout hitting list. He projects to be an above-average MLB hitter with 20/20 potential.

Matthews’ 106.5 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and .400 wxOBAcon are both better than plus for Double-A. Given his 64% contact rate, the athletic Matthews is a quintessential Astros prospect where bat speed is a much higher priority than the hit tool. He may not debut in 2024, but he should contribute fantasy value in 2025.

Cubs first baseman Jonathan Long is another hot hitter. He hit four home runs in the last week with a 289 wRC+. The 2023 ninth-rounder has been crushing Double-A Tennessee since being promoted at the end of July, to the tune of a 203 wRC+ over 161 plate appearances. Under the hood, his Statcast is quite good, mapping quite closely to fellow Cubs prospect Matt Shaw, with a plus 105 mph 90th percentile exit velocity and above-average contact and chase.

Although “traditional” projection models probably have him as a better-than-average MLB bat with power in the 15-to-20 home run range, the pop is a bit lower than expected from someone currently playing mostly first base in the upper minors. From a fantasy perspective, that probably lowers him a bit. The underlying metrics, though, suggest that there is more in the tank, and perhaps his past week’s work is evidence that it is starting to actualize. RoboScout will be keeping an eye on him.

Double-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Zebby Matthews	MIN	100	100
2	Noah Schultz	CHW	97	98
3	Logan Henderson	MIL	98	96
4	K.C. Hunt	MIL	99	96
5	Kumar Rocker	TEX	97	95
6	Tink Hence	STL	97	94
7	Quinn Mathews	STL	95	94
8	Moises Chace	PHI	93	94
9	Bubba Chandler	PIT	91	92
10	Chase Dollander	COL	91	91
11	Chandler Champlain	KCR	95	91
12	Braxton Ashcraft	PIT	91	90
13	Thomas Harrington	PIT	91	89
14	Sean Sullivan	COL	92	88
15	Brandon Sproat	NYM	89	87
16	Eiberson Castellano	PHI	90	87
17	Brett Kerry	LAA	91	86
18	Brandon Young	BAL	90	85
19	Zach Penrod	BOS	88	85
20	Ben Shields	NYY	87	85
21	Austin Bergner	DET	89	85
22	Troy Melton	DET	85	85
23	Caden Dana	LAA	86	84
24	Andrew Morris	MIN	86	83
25	Carson Palmquist	COL	85	83

Eiberson Castellano joins George Klassen and Samuel Aldegheri as Phillies pitching breakouts in 2024. Of course, the latter two are now members of the Angels organization set to make their big league debut this weekend. It’s been a solid season for Phillies pitching development, despite Mick Abel’s disappointing performance and Andrew Painter’s injury.

The 23-year-old Castellano primarily throws an 81 mph slurve, two distinct 94 mph fastballs and a changeup with a foot of fade—all with high extension. He has really turned it on over the last five weeks, putting up a 38% strikeout rate with only a six percent walk rate, while going more than five innings on average per appearance to earn a selection to this past week’s Hot Sheet. His RoboScout projection for MLB is in the same Double-A cluster as Pirates Thomas Harrington and Braxton Ashcraft. He’s clearly a vastly underrated pitching prospect.

Another Phillies righty, Moises Chace, was on RoboScout’s radar as stuff-over-command prospect, although Chace has done most of his pitching this season for the Orioles. Philadelphia acquired him in the Gregory Soto trade and assigned him to Double-A Reading. Chace has been a revelation over 15 innings and is now in the top 10 for the level.

Over three starts, the righthander has a 52% strikeout rate, a 43% strikeout-minus-walk rate, a sub-1.00 WHIP, and all of his ERA indicators are below 2.00. The arsenal is an ultra-flat 94 mph four-seam fastball, an 80 mph slider with over a foot of sweep, and a changeup with over a foot of fade and 11 mph velocity separation from the fastball. Chace has the pitch mix to be a midrotation starter. From a Stuff+ perspective, he grades higher than even Luis Perales (Red Sox) and Noah Schultz (White Sox). His command will dictate whether it comes to fruition.

Triple-A Hitters (min 25 PA)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	James Wood	WSN	100	100
2	Jackson Holliday	BAL	93	92
3	Coby Mayo	BAL	86	90
4	Kyle Manzardo	CLE	86	89
5	Adrian Del Castillo	ARI	79	86
6	Andy Pages	LAD	78	86
7	Miguel Vargas	LAD	78	86
8	Chase Meidroth	BOS	76	83
9	Roman Anthony	BOS	80	83
10	Jose Fermin	STL	71	80
11	Dillon Dingler	DET	69	78
12	Jacob Wilson	OAK	69	77
13	Kristian Campbell	BOS	67	77
14	Shay Whitcomb	HOU	75	77
15	Jasson Dominguez	NYY	68	75
16	Luis Matos	SFG	69	75
17	Moises Ballesteros	CHC	74	75
18	Andres Chaparro	ARI	68	74
19	Nacho Alvarez Jr.	ATL	67	74
20	Matthew Lugo	LAA	66	74
21	Deyvison De Los Santos	MIA	79	74
22	Agustin Ramirez	MIA	70	74
23	Joey Loperfido	HOU	65	74
24	Junior Caminero	TBR	70	74
25	Elehuris Montero	COL	63	73

With Will Wagner, Joey Loperfido and Addison Barger playing with regularity, it’s clear that the Blue Jays are seeing what they have in their young core. Despite not being on their 40-man roster, Alan Roden is another youngster deserving of a look. The 24-year-old third-round pick in 2022 has been playing corner outfield for Triple-A Buffalo. With 13 home runs, 12 stolen bases and a 126 wRC+ across Double-A and Triple-A, Roden has used his plus contact rate to great effect, especially recently. Roden has hit four home runs, stolen three bases and put up a 168 wRC+ over the last five weeks. With better-than-average defensive metrics, Roden is another solid-not-great, hitting prospect in the Jays organization.

Triple-A Pitchers (min 15 IP)

Rank	Name	Team	Robo	RoboCast
1	Paul Skenes	PIT	100	100
2	Christian Scott	NYM	91	90
3	Zebby Matthews	MIN	88	87
4	Tylor Megill	NYM	88	85
5	Bubba Chandler	PIT	84	84
6	David Festa	MIN	88	84
7	Yilber Diaz	ARI	85	81
8	Jack Leiter	TEX	82	81
9	Reid Detmers	LAA	87	80
10	Logan Henderson	MIL	83	79
11	Will Warren	NYY	79	78
12	Cade Povich	BAL	82	78
13	Thomas Harrington	PIT	81	78
14	Chayce McDermott	BAL	80	77
15	Louie Varland	MIN	79	76
16	Brandon Young	BAL	81	75
17	Cristian Mena	ARI	79	74
18	Carson Spiers	CIN	75	74
19	Noah Cameron	KCR	80	73
20	Alec Marsh	KCR	77	73
21	Tobias Myers	MIL	73	73
22	Alek Manoah	TOR	75	72
23	Quinn Priester	BOS	77	72
24	Chad Patrick	MIL	74	72
25	Elieser Hernandez	LAD	73	72

When selecting our 2025 redraft targets who have yet to debut, Geoff made a sleeper pick of Brandon Birdsell (Cubs). RoboScout understands why based on his performance the last five weeks. Since July 29, the righthander has put up a 1.06 WHIP with a 1.82 ERA with a 29% strikeout rate and 47% groundball rate while averaging nearly six innings per appearance. As a 24-year-old, that projects in MLB to be around a 1.24 WHIP with a 4.00 ERA. He’s a solid innings eater who won’t hurt your ratios.

Red Sox righty Richard Fitts was a popular redraft target prior to the season. He was expected to see some time in Boston’s rotation after the Red Sox acquired him from the Yankees in the Alex Verdugo trade. So far, that hasn’t happened. Fitts had accrued a 1.44 WHIP and 4.90 ERA as of July 27. Since then, however, over five starts, he’s put up a 1.00 WHIP with a 2.89 ERA and a strikeout-minus-walk rate of 26%. Fitts has also elicited a ground ball rate over 50% during that time and gone deeper than five innings in each appearance. It seems like he might be once again knocking on the door of a call-up.

Happy bidding!