Kumar Rocker, Jasson Dominguez Headline 10 Statcast Standouts (Sept. 2)
Image credit: Kumar Rocker makes his Triple-A debut on Wednesday, Aug. 28, 2024 (Photo by Eddie Kelly / ProLook Photos)
Every Monday morning we’ll highlight several players who stood out to us based on their underlying Statcast metrics. These are not full scouting reports, but can often serve as good early indicators of prospects who might be ready to break out or are demonstrating MLB-ready skills.
Last week, we highlighted Rhett Lowder just before his MLB debut, gave some well-deserved hype to Drake Baldwin and dug into the data for eight other interesting prospects.
Among the highlights this week:
- The triumphant resurgence of Kumar Rocker
- Is Jasson Dominguez better served with more time at Triple-A?
- A pitcher rockets from Low-A to Triple A
- A Mets pitching dev success story?
- Mets, Blue Jays and Reds recent draft picks
- An undrafted pitcher makes the show
- A brief look at Colby Thomas
- A Tigers draftee who dramatically improved his fastball shape
10 Statcast Standouts
Kumar Rocker, RHP, Rangers
First, read J.J. Cooper on Rocker’s re-ascension to the top tier of pitching prospects.
I usually start every analysis with a breakdown of the primary fastball. However, with Rocker, the clear money pitch is the slider. From a shape standpoint, it looks a little bit like Max Meyer’s slider with even more depth, though it’s tough to find another pitch like this in the major leagues. If I had to come up with a couple of comps, it would be Pete Fairbanks and Luke Jackson. This is an easy plus-plus pitch and possibly better.
Kumar throws two fastballs: a high-velocity four-seam fastball and a true two-seamer that gets some SSW movement deviation. I have both pitches as above-average stuff-wise, mostly due to the plus-plus velocity, but I also like the shape on the sinker, which features a ton of movement with over 16 inches of arm-side run per flight (0.4 seconds). There’s room for some shape optimization here on the sinker. He could get more depth and more run with a spin axis tweak.
The four-seam fastball doesn’t get a ton of ride, and given his release point and height, it’s about two inches lower than the MLB average given those characteristics. However, his data is from the PCL, and Dell Diamond in particular:
This chart would suggest that his fastball may be closer to average shape-wise, which would make the offering an easy plus pitch given the velocity and extension.
He rounds out his arsenal with a decent changeup that he pumps in at 91 mph, which provides an ideal eight mph of separation from the fastball. It gets good depth and arm-side run, and makes for a nice fourth pitch.
The question for Rocker when he gets to the major leagues will be how well MLB hitters can recognize the slider. I’m fairly confident in projecting an extremely good whiff rate on the slider, but it hinges on inducing swings. His arm slot and sinker/changeup data suggest he could have a natural sweeper, should he want to add another pitch to the mix. We’re looking at a Max Meyer package, with possibly a better slider, and considerably more velocity on the fastball.
Jasson Domínguez, OF, Yankees
The Martian did not get the call many Yankees fans were anticipating, which begs the question: Does Dominguez have anything he needs to work on? Or are the Yankees playing service time games so he can maintain rookie eligibility for next year?
My take is that he’s flashing some elite tools, especially as a lefthanded batter, but he could use some time to work on his swing from the right side of the plate:
As a righthanded batter, we only have a 133-pitch sample, so the error bars are much larger. The more stable exit velocity metrics such as 90th percentile exit velocity and average exit velocity on his top 50% of batted balls suggest average raw power. I’d somewhat look past the average exit velocity at this point (from both sides of the plate), as that tends to be a something of a noisier statistic. He may be optimizing for contact on the fastball from the right side of the plate, but the sample sizes are small, so it’s hard to be conclusive.
Dominguez will benefit from some extra time to work on his game as a righty. He’s very young and hasn’t even seen 1,000 pitches yet above Double-A. The goal is to maximize his long-term performance. Giving him adequate prep time at Triple-A is a key part of that process, especially given that he is a switch-hitter.
From the left side of the plate, however, Dominguez looks like a monster:
We see the curiously-low average exit velocity, but the raw power is borderline elite, with a 90th percentile exit velocity close to 109 mph. He’s showing some chase against sliders and curves, but he is able to make contact when he chases while making a ton of contact against pitches in the zone (all pitch types). There’s room for improvement with the swing decisions, but he looks like a superstar from the left side, with a rare blend of 75-grade raw power, decent launch angles and sublime zone contact.
As much as I’d love to see Dominguez in the Bronx, the Yankees are doing the right thing by giving him a little more time to work on things without the microscope of a Yankees Pennant race mixed into the equation.
Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals
Mathews popped onto my radar in the nascent stages of this series. He is the only prospect that has made the trek all the way from the Florida State League to Triple-A in one season, providing the rare opportunity to review him again.
Mathews’ vertical ride is not quite as elite as it was in Low-A, but it’s still comfortably plus, averaging roughly one inch more than expected given his height and release characteristics. He was close to +3 inches of ride in the FSL. Overall, the fastball should be an average to plus pitch stuff-wise based on the single-game sample.
His primary secondary is a slider that varies from a true gyro slider (the ones closer to the 0/0 point on the chart) and a sweepier version. This may make the pitch less effective against lefthanded batters, but we’ll need a larger sample to make a more confident assessment there. That spread in movement is consistent with his time in the Florida State League:
He would do well to break these out into two distinct pitches, a true gyro slider and a sweeper, though he may not want to mess with a pitch that’s working well for him.
If you compare the changeup from the FSL to Triple-A, we see he’s made a lot progress adding depth to the pitch, cutting almost three inches of ride from the pitch (generally a good thing for changeups). He’s accomplished this by better leveraging SSW effects and getting negative vertical movement deviation on his refined changeup compared to the positive deviation on the changeup he was throwing in Low-A. This is important progress on a pitch he’ll need to lean on as a starter in the major leagues.
Brendan Girton, RHP, Mets
I wrote this about Girton shortly after the draft:
“Girton features a deceptive, low-slot fastball at 93-94 mph, which tops out at 96 with about average ride given his almost 60 degree arm angle (90 degrees being fully sidearm). He pairs it with a gyro slider at 85 that likely needs to be less spin efficient, as well as a mini-sweeper that doesn’t sweep enough to be effective, though he has the arm slot to have an effective sweeper. He also flashed a hammer curve at 85 and a mediocre changeup without fade or depth at 87 mph.”
Fast forward a month, and it looks like the Mets have indeed changed his slider to be a true sweeper, and they’ve helped him improve the fastball shape, which now has clearly plus ride given the arm slot, as well as slightly more velocity. It’s a tiny 12-pitch sample, but very encouraging from a development standpoint, it and speaks well for what the Mets are doing as a pitching dev org.
Will Watson, RHP, Mets
When I wrote up Watson after the draft, I mistakenly classified him as a two-fastball guy, which looks to have been incorrect, as he was throwing both pitches with the same spin axis.
He’s flashing the same incredible fastball he was showing in college, with 18 inches of ride—nearly three inches above what’s expected given his arm slot—with some of the pitches getting misclassified as sinkers. His changeup is showing an impressive amount of armside run. His slider isn’t a gyro nor a sweeper, which is consistent with his college data. We’ll see what the Mets do with that pitch.
Jonathan Todd, RHP, Blue Jays
Todd was a 15th-round draft pick for the Blue Jays, and his early data is very promising. His fastball has tremendous ride, averaging nearly 20 inches of IVB, which is more than three inches above what’s expected given his release. That will make the pitch an easy plus pitch even at 93 mph. He pairs that with a true gyro bullet slider that has enough velocity and promising shape to be viable swing-and-miss pitch. At 6-foot-6, 225 pounds, Todd has the frame to perhaps add a little bit more velocity, and he could be a fast-moving bullpen arm that might rocket through the minor leagues and reach Toronto’s bullpen next year.
Trent Hodgdon, RHP, Reds
In my NL Central draft review, I wrote this about Hodgdon:
“Hodgdon is the classic Stuff vs Performance guy, with a career 6.59 ERA across three NCAA seasons, with 87 strikeouts in 56 innings, albeit with an alarming 48 walks. That explains why his solid 93 mph fastball with about 19 inches of ride slipped all the way to the 17th round. He’ll need a massive leap in command and probably a couple ticks of velocity to be a viable big-league prospect.”
Much of that remains true, as he’s walked five batters in his first four innings.
We see a very good fastball, and most of the ride has translated to pro ball so far. He has added a little bit of velo, giving the pitch a roughly plus grade from a stuff perspective. He’s clearly lacking a swing-and-miss secondary, and given the lack of command and vertical fastball, I think he’s extremely likely to add a gyro slider and scrap the curveball entirely. If he can develop that, he could be an interesting bullpen arm to track.
Zach Brzykcy, RHP, Nationals
We called out Brzykcy as a potential September callup, and he looks like a potential impact bullpen arm:
He mostly pitches off his fastball, which has almost two inches of ride above expected and average velo at 93.5 mph. His changeup likely needs more depth (lower IVB) to be effective, but it has promising arm-side run that should help it play against lefthanded batters. Brzykcy throws a hard curveball with good depth, but this arsenal is calling out for a gyro slider. Though the fastball is good enough to carry him for a bit, he needs a true swing-and-miss secondary to have long-term success in the major leagues.
Colby Thomas, OF, Athletics
I’m planning a deeper dive on Colby Thomas in the coming weeks, so we’ll settle for the short version here: He is hyper-aggressive batter with contact issues in zone and out of zone, but does a lot of damage when he makes contact. Some of that is due to the PCL, but the exit velocities are very good, though this isn’t an elite damage-on-contact profile the way Jhonkensy Noel’s was. Thomas will need to clean up the approach and improve his contact skills before he’s ready to take on major league pitching.
Micah Ashman, RHP, Tigers
I wrote this about Ashman after the draft:
“Ashman stands 6-foot-7 and only 195 pounds and had decent success as a reliever in 2024, throwing mostly just a fastball and sinker. He’s able to command the pitches well, so this is likely a development bet hoping he can add velocity once he fills out his frame with the help of pro-level athletic training. The fastball shape is close enough that this profile could become viable if his fastball suddenly jumps into the 94-95 range. None of his secondary pitches are interesting at the moment.”
I may have incorrectly attributed him with two fastballs (looks like just a four-seamer at the moment), but instead of taking a leap in velocity, Ashman’s fastball has gained more than two inches of ride from college to pro ball. That’s a significant change and a good sign for the Tigers’ pitching dev.
Here’s what he looked like in college:
That’s roughly average ride for the fastball, with sub-par velocity. Fast forward a few months and we get this:
That’s a clear, undeniable jump in vertical ride. He continues to fill up the zone with a strike rate of over 70% on the pitch, which combined with the now excellent shape on the fastball gives him a tremendous base to work from. He’s still searching for a secondary, but the immediate improvement on the fastball shape suggests to me that Ashman might develop rapidly with the Tigers. He’s definitely a name to watch.
