10 Significant Top 100 Prospects Risers, Fallers So Far In 2024
Image credit: Tigers infielder Kevin McGonigle (Photo/Tom DiPace)
We’re hitting the final stretch of the 2024 minor league season over the next six weeks or so. And while it may feel like things are starting to slow down, there’s still ample time for prospects to enhance, solidify or rebuild some of their stock entering the offseason.
Below, Baseball America staffers highlighted 10 current members of the Top 100 who have caught our attention so far for various reasons.
RISING
Jackson Jobe, RHP, Tigers
A hamstring injury sidelined Jackson Jobe for nearly two months at Double-A Erie and had limited him to just 10 starts through the end of July.
But when 22-year-old righthander has been healthy, he has offered plenty of evidence to support his case as the best pitching prospect in the minor leagues.
Jobe throws four pitches that all grade as average or better, topped by a plus 96-98 mph fastball and a double-plus low-80s slider.
A low-90s cutter he added this season has been a separator. He throws the pitch for strikes, especially called ones when batters are on high alert for his devastating fastball or slider.
At the end of July, opposing batters had managed to hit just .132/.245/.182 versus Jobe.
When Jobe is on, he’s unhittable. Case in point: He threw the first six innings of a combined no-hitter for Erie in mid July.
With three potential plus pitches and a disrupting cutter in his repertoire, Jobe has the type of potential to one day front the Tigers’ rotation.
—JJ Cooper
Colt Emerson, SS, Mariners
Colt Emerson followed up an excellent pro debut last summer with an equally impressive first full season at Low-A Modesto.
The 19-year-old has showcased a plate approach that is mature beyond his years. He has racked up more walks than strikeouts, and the advanced data backs it up, with Emerson boasting equally strong chase and whiff rates.
Drafted in the first round last year out of high school in Ohio, Emerson had not yet tapped into consistent over-the-fence power. Neither his loft nor top-end exit velocities are quite there yet.
However, he consistently impacts the ball, and many scouts expect that he’ll eventually grow into average power.
In the field, Emerson makes the routine plays at shortstop, though he may move to second or third base when he reaches levels with more dynamic shortstops. His special hit tool and average power production will profile at any spot.
It’s not only tools, youth and production with Emerson. The Mariners rave about his makeup and work ethic, making him a complete prospect.
—Austin Yamada
Kevin McGonigle, SS, Tigers
Kevin McGonigle hits the ball hard. He hits the ball often. He stays within his strike zone.
The 19-year-old, lefthanded-hitting Tigers shortstop had almost as many extra-base hits as strikeouts at Low-A Lakeland in his first full pro season.
McGonigle earned a promotion to High-A West Michigan in late July, roughly a year after he was ranked as the top pure hitter among high schoolers in a loaded 2023 draft class.
The supplemental first-rounder from the Philadelphia area hit .326 with 35 walks and 24 strikeouts in the Florida State League.
As he did in high school, McGonigle looked comfortable against righthanders and left, velocity and offspeed, young and old.
While a potential plus bat is the draw, McGonigle has a chance for near-average or possibly average power and speed. Scouts rave about his baseball IQ.
He’s not the rangiest or most explosive defender, but he makes routine plays at shortstop and is more than capable at second base.
Barrel accuracy and strike-zone discipline are McGonigle’s calling cards, making him the Tigers’ potential leadoff hitter of the future.
—Matt Eddy
Aidan Miller, SS, Phillies
Early in the season, scouts were unanimous in their praise for Aidan Miller, the Phillies’ first-rounder in 2023 out of high school in Florida.
He swatted his first pro home run in the Low-A Florida State League playoffs last year, then built off that momentum in the early portion of his first full season as a professional.
Miller was hitting the ball hard and hitting it often and seeing big-time results with Clearwater, despite hitting the ball on the ground more often than is ideal. He finished his FSL time with a .275/.401/.483 batting line in 39 games.
The Phillies moved Miller to High-A Jersey Shore on June 11, and he found the South Atlantic League to be tougher going.
Still, Miller was striking out less than he did at Low-A, taking plenty of walks and hitting the ball with authority.
Perhaps even more notably, scouts give Miller a reasonable chance to stick at shortstop, which was not the case in 2023.
If he can stave off a move to third base and continue to show the offensive gifts that were expected out of the draft and showed up early in 2024, he could rise even higher on the Top 100 Prospects list.
—Josh Norris
Quinn Mathews, LHP, Cardinals
Quinn Mathews didn’t pitch at all after he was drafted in the fourth round last year, a conscious decision made by St. Louis after the lefthander shouldered a huge workload as a Stanford senior.
That decision appears to have been wise. Mathews showed up in 2024 with the best stuff of his career. His fastball now resides in the mid 90s, while he still maintains solid-average strike-throwing tendencies.
Mathews often relies on his slider as a secondary pitch, which is short and flat, typically only generating whiffs below the zone. But his best offspeed pitch is his changeup, which features solid fade and big velocity separation at 81-83 mph. He rounds out the arsenal with a loopier two-plane curveball.
While it was always clear that Mathews would be advanced for a first-year pro, this level of stuff combined with his control has ratcheted up his status.
St. Louis has acknowledged his improvement by advancing him through three full-season levels in 2024, up to Double-A Springfield.
Mathews has put himself on track to be among the first few pitchers from the 2023 draft to reach the major leagues.
—Austin Yamada
Zebby Matthews, RHP, Twins
When Zebby Matthews was a starter at Western Carolina, his fastball sat in the upper 80s and would touch the low 90s. A move to the bullpen helped him touch 96-97 mph, and as a pro he can get to those velos consistently.
The Twins’ 2022 eighth-rounder now sits 94-96, which helped him rocket from High-A Cedar Rapids to Triple-A St. Paul in a two-month span this season.
As impressive as Matthews’ stuff is now, it’s his control and command that stand out. He can dot the zone with his fastball and cutter whenever he wants. He walks no one.
In three-ball counts, Matthews has thrown strikes 92% of the time this season. He struck out 49 batters in 2024 before he issued his first walk. At the end of July, he had walked six batters in 87 innings.
But Matthews doesn’t just refuse to walk anyone by grooving fastballs when he gets behind in counts. He had a 71% strike percentage, far better than the minor league average of 63%.
Matthews’ combination of plus-plus control and plus stuff has made him one of the fastest-rising pitching prospects in baseball in 2024.
–JJ Cooper
Kristian Campbell, 2B/OF, Red Sox
Kristian Campbell worked overtime last offseason in Fort Myers, Fla., trying to improve his swing and defense.
The results this season indicate that it was a successful mission for the rising Red Sox prospect.
As August dawned, Campbell was one of just five minor league hitters with a 1.000 OPS or better. Drafted last year in the fourth round out of Georgia Tech, he reached Double-A Portland in June.
The Red Sox liked Campbell’s speed and bat-to-ball skills when they drafted him. But they wanted to see him add strength and drive the ball in the air, after he hit just four home runs in college during his draft year.
The 22-year-old has been able to do just that in 2024, all while maintaining his sharp batting eye and keeping strikeouts in check. Campbell has played mostly second base this season, but the Red Sox have kept him sharp with assignments in center field, shortstop and occasionally third base.
Based on how hard he consistently hits the ball and his versatility, Campbell looks like a future big leaguer.
—Matt Eddy
FALLING
Ethan Salas, C, Padres
While this season is shaping up as a lost one at the plate for High-A Fort Wayne catcher Ethan Salas, the number to focus on is not his sub-.600 OPS.
It is 18—as in his age.
Last season, Salas was the rare 17-year-old to play meaningfully at Low-A. This year, he is the rare 18-year-old to play at High-A.
While some 18-year-olds have excelled at High-A, including Mike Trout, Wander Franco and Vladimir Guerrero Jr., it is just as common for them to struggle to catch up to the speed of the level.
That description fits for Elvis Andrus and Adalberto Mondesi, who like Salas scuffled at High-A as 18-year-olds before righting the ship and reaching MLB.
Through 79 games, Salas hit .195 with two home runs in the Midwest League. His swing-decision markers were fine for his age, but his ability to impact the ball was more questionable.
The Padres expect that enhanced physical maturity will help in this regard.
Salas has time on his side, while his defensive reputation behind the plate will afford him an abundance of patience.
—Matt Eddy
Colson Montgomery, SS, White Sox
Not many minor league shortstops have a higher on-base percentage than Colson Montgomery does since he turned pro in 2021.
His .384 career OBP is remarkable for a 22-year-old at Triple-A.
The trouble for Montgomery is that his production at the upper levels has underwhelmed, while some scouts have expressed lingering concerns about his mobility based on the back injury that cut his 2023 season in half.
Through 86 games, Montgomery hit .208/.327/.372 with 12 home runs.
But all is not lost for Montgomery, whom the White Sox drafted 22nd overall in 2021 following a decorated high school career in Indiana.
It has been a season of adjustments for Montgomery at Triple-A, beginning with the automated ball-strike system in the International League.
On top of that, he had to contend with opposing pitchers getting back into counts with secondary stuff, something he didn’t see much at Class A.
Montgomery also must refine his two-strike approach after Triple-A pitchers have successfully attacked him with high fastballs.
—Matt Eddy
Spencer Jones, OF, Yankees
No one questions the upside of Yankees 2022 first-round outfielder Spencer Jones. His raw power ranks among the best in the system.
He can handle center field, has at least above-average speed and an arm that will fit nicely in either center or left field.
He’s shown flashes of his ceiling in fits and starts—including home runs from both sides of the plate in Double-A Somerset’s championship-clinching game in 2023 and his multi-homer showing in this year’s Spring Breakout game.
But if he cannot find a way to make more contact, he won’t get anywhere near his ceiling. As of July 25, Jones was carrying a 35% strikeout rate over parts of two seasons in Double-A. This season, that rate was nearly 37%,.
Scouts noticed that Jones changed the position of his hands from spring training into the regular season, which may have somewhat contributed somewhat to his elevated strikeout rates.
If he is to reach his peak, Jones must significantly cut his strikeout rate.
—Josh Norris
